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UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

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FTSE has been on a steady downward trend for a couple of years, brexit speeded that process up somewhat just like any major news would, much like news out of Russia last year practically bringing DAX to its knee's.

Things have resumed as normal as they can be and if anything it was far more dramatic than it should have been because of the remain camps confidence they were winning, if there was more belief in the country and its people the markets would have prepared for things better rather than a complete culture shock because of misguided outlooks and total refusal from all parties it would actually happen .

FTSE it will continue a steady fall based on the trend not because brexit has forced it into decline.
 
The fact that the stock market has not collapsed, the fact the pound has found a reasonable level, the fact that there is at least some good news developing. Is there no chance that, the people who control the markets " not the experts who make a salary predicting "may think we could be a better bet outside than inside a failing system.

The value of the pound has taken a hit and I suspect will end the year down even more. Many companies are on the way out of the door too if we get the wrong deal, again something partially out of our hands. We haven't left yet either. The impact will be most keenly felt after we leave (most likely not until next year tbh) and the problems that will come with that. I don't mind the argument that "i want immigration down and the economy is secondary". What I am not so keen on is people maintaining certaintly that we're going to breeze through this with no down side. There very obviously will be a downside and it's important to see that beforehand because then you can act to negative some of it. There may of course be new opportunities that we can carve out too and so that will hopefully weight against potential negatives.

That's why articles like this are helpful because they lay out how the process may well pan out and state that we'll probably have to compromise and lose something (eu bank 'passporting rights' for instance is getting mentioned a lot) in exchange for what some see as gaining something (the ability to have a cap of imigration). Also, as stated we will immediately switch to WTO trading and all the tarrrifs that come with that the moment we enact article 50. Even our WTO tarrifs are currently set at preferential rates due to our current membership of the EU and the WTO said that will likely have to change too, so there are lots of complication along the way. Nobody is talking about any of this because the conversation has devolved into a knowledge free 'im right, you're wrong'' fest. It's useful to know what the future may hold and how to have realistic expectations, but the current national conversation is just "oh this leave/remain person did/said this, aren't leave/remain voters terrible/stupid" which is pointless and not indicative of most leave or remain voters anyway.
 
Markets hate uncertainty, Brexit has setup years of uncertainty, obviously it's impossible to know what would have happened if the vote was to remain, and what the end result will be in years to come, but it certainly sounds like a more volatile path we're on now?

Is the FTSE 250 a better representation of UK focused/based companies?

Yes to both of those. And that's not my "opinion". Both are fact.
 
Brexit: Leaving the EU threatens fund passport

Britain’s historic vote to leave the EU threatens to disrupt fund sales by UK managers across Europe, curtailing future asset growth and damaging profits.

Some lawyers and analysts fear that the City will be damaged by the loss of “passporting” privileges that allow UK financial institutions to access the EU single market without restrictions.

Most UK asset managers have bases in Luxembourg or Dublin for their mutual fund ranges and will — in theory — still be able to sell these funds, known asUcits, to the EU market after Brexit.

That is not a foregone conclusion, however. Haley Tam, an analyst at Citigroup, the bank, in London, says Brussels could choose to introduce tougher rules that would require funds domiciled in Dublin and Luxembourg but run by UK managers to be subject to more onerous rules.

“The EU could require investment management and support staff to be based in the country of domicile,” says Ms Tam.

Citigroup last week reduced its earnings forecast for the listed UK asset managers sector by 5.8 per cent for next year and 7.9 per cent for 2018. It cited concerns that costs will rise as asset managers have to deal with different regulatory standards in the UK and EU.

M&G, the investment arm of Prudential, the insurer, has already begunsetting up a new range of funds in Irelandto sell to European investors.

Dominic Johnson, chairman of New City Initiative, the think-tank, fears that any requirements for UK managers to move staff into the EU will completely change London’s historic role as the capital of asset management in Europe.

He is particularly concerned about the potential impact on small managers.

“A boutique with 20 employees in London will find it very hard to open offices elsewhere in Europe,” says Mr Johnson, a long-time critic of the EU.

He likens asset management in the UK and EU to twins that were joined at birth and warns that “separation will not be an easy process”.

But Mr Johnson expects fund managers based in Europe to voice support for dual passporting arrangements to ensure their continued access to clients in the UK.

“The last thing that continental European managers want is to be cut off from the UK. Beggar thy neighbour policies can only hurt consumers and savers across Europe,” he says.

Around £1.2tn in assets are managed by fund managers based in Britain on behalf of European investors.

Some observers believe the UK could useNorway as a modelfor a new relationship with the EU. This would allow the UK financial services industry continued access to the EU market. But Norway pays contributions to the EU budget and allows significant free movement of people into the country, policies that have been rejected by many supporters of the UKBrexitcampaign.

The last thing that continental European managers want is to be cut off from the UK

Rachel Kent, global head of the financial services practice at Hogan Lovells, the law firm, says access to the single market will come at a price and that it will be impossible for the UK to cherry pick favourable aspects of the existing rules.

“The EU is not going to say the UK can have full passporting rights, but don’t worry about the free movement of people or contributions to the EU budget. We can’t expect to have everything we want,” she says.

Gerard Lyons, who was the economic adviser to Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, is a critic of the current passporting system, which he says “did not work all that well” for many UK asset managers.

Leaving the EU will allow UK fund managers to benefit from less intrusion by European regulators into their domestic market where the bulk of their business is done, says Mr Lyons.

He believes that a “bespoke relationship” will have to be worked out for the UK that permits access to, rather than membership of, the single market.

In contrast, Sadiq Khan, the current London mayor, has warned that the loss of passporting rights would be “a disaster”. He has promised to push the UK government to make sure passporting is at the top of its priority list during Brexit negotiations.

Owen Lysak, senior associate in London at Clifford Chance, the law firm, says it is vital for the UK asset management industry to construct “a shopping list of priorities”. “Passporting will be the first item on that list,” he says.

One possible result of any negotiations is that the UK will become classified as a so-called third party in its dealings with the EU. This would require the UK to maintain a regulatory environment that is at least equivalent to that of the EU in order to be permitted to continue to do business with EU entities.

Jake Green, a partner at Ashurst, the law firm, fears that obtaining an equivalence decision could be an “acutely political” discussion. He also notes that there is no equivalence regime in place for Ucits funds at the moment. (From FT - https://next.ft.com/content/6c5337d6-3df8-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a Posted article due to paywall)

An interesting read about one of the potential challenges and trade offs we face, especially as a financial and service economy.
 
Having just watched the round of all the Sunday politics shows (boy, does it make for a crammed morning of debates!) it's clear that the narrative is evolving from former Leave camp members to be more nuanced about the "no downside" - there's a reluctant but growing acknowledgement that yes, actually there is going to be economic decline as a result of the outcome of the vote - what's still in dispute is by how much...
 
Friends and family I spoke with had the opposite view, they believed a leave vote would mean less immigration and more money for the NHS, largely based on the false promises made by the leave campaign.

Exactly, If everyone's personal observations are incorrect/not accurate enough and polls are proven to be constantly incorrect ( see last general election and the referendum ) then there really isnt anyone that can give an unbiased overview of what is/should/or will happen.

So far in this thread and the media that its leave voters causing trouble, leave voters who must be racist blah blah blah . However my observations of the group of people I have access to have been the complete opposite, not one has factored immigration as a reason for leaving and most consider the Polish/Latvian/Lithuanian to be an asset to our area picking up the slack where lazy Brits cant be bothered to do the hard work but still 66% voted leave in Norfolk. The most vile of abuse has come from remainer camp, For a group of people claiming to be more intelligent ( remain ) its laughable to see the caveman style insults that were thrown around after the result.

I consider my group of friends to be quite diverse from various different views and opinions from all warps of life from the wealthy to the poor, but those who voted remain for me have shown some attributes of late which I would consider to be a child like and complete lack of common sense.

Like you've mentioned in your group of friends/associates you probably see the same thing, but from the remain/leave swung in different directions. The only time this will ever come to any fruition is when the leave camp give up trying to reverse whats happened, suck it up and focus on what we can do going forward as a nation.

It comes down to who has the most influence in a group of people to what people rinse and repeat, it would be interesting to see what the votes would be if there was no influence of social media or news channels .
 
Here's the hypocrisy of Andrea Leadsom (prominent Leave campaigner and current candidate for Tory party leader and therefore PM) exposed. Listen to what she had to say 3 years ago - it's completely unequivocal!
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(Wind to 09:08 to hear the relevant bit - embedding may have made the video go a bit weird)
 
EU tells Swiss no single market access if no free movement of citizens -

"The European Union is to show its determination to make no concessions to the UK on Brexit terms by telling Switzerland it will lose access to the single market if it goes ahead with plans to impose controls on the free movement of EU citizens.

The Swiss-EU talks, under way for two years but now needing a solution possibly within weeks, throws up the exact same issues that will be raised in the UK’s exit talks – the degree to which the UK must accept free movement of the EU’s citizens as a price for access to the single market."

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ingle-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens
 
Government faces worldwide hunt for trade negotiators, experts warn
A Government that has spent more than four decades outsourcing powers to Brussels will now have to undo the process, choosing to eschew or replace each of the 12,295 EU regulations that directly affect the UK.

The challenge threatens to overwhelm the civil service. Even the least challenging route for Brexit – the so-called “Norway option” – would entail the civil service taking back powers over defence, security, justice, agriculture and fisheries. These would be more than enough to chew on for years and each area could be politically toxic to deal with.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ldwide-hunt-for-trade-negotiators-experts-wa/
 
EU tells Swiss no single market access if no free movement of citizens -

"The European Union is to show its determination to make no concessions to the UK on Brexit terms by telling Switzerland it will lose access to the single market if it goes ahead with plans to impose controls on the free movement of EU citizens.

The Swiss-EU talks, under way for two years but now needing a solution possibly within weeks, throws up the exact same issues that will be raised in the UK’s exit talks – the degree to which the UK must accept free movement of the EU’s citizens as a price for access to the single market."

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ingle-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

If that really does pan out on a timetable of a few weeks to a few months, it's going to throw a stick the size of a tree-trunk into the spokes of whoever's going to be trying to put together the UK's own deal, because the EU will have made it unequivocably, undeniably clear that there will be no compromise to be found on the principle of freedom of movement. All the have-our-cake-and-eat-it camp will be snookered, check-mated, if things go that way, because their doublethink, contradictory views will be exposed as lies.
 
Theresa May says rise in Europeans moving to UK likely before a Brexit
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/03/theresa-may-europeans-uk-brexit-brits-abroad

She's basically admitting what experts have warned all along (there's been a lot of that recently, it must be catching) i.e. that when you have a system that takes several years to be replaced, there's bound to be a rush of people seeking to be grand-fathered under the old system.

In other words, the Leave vote will cause a big spike in immigration - and there's nothing the government can do about it, because they're still bound by existing EU rules until 2 years after Article 50 is triggered (and it's anyone's guess when that will be)
 
Tim Peake: 'I don't want to see negative effects on UK science'
Scientific research is a major contributor to the UK economy, but it stands to be the greatest loser from Brexit. UK universities receive 10% of their research funds from the EU, and across the country, science is propped up by grants from Brussels. There are signs that UK organisations are already being passed over for EU science collaborations because their future involvement cannot be guaranteed.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jul/03/tim-peake-negative-effects-brexit-uk-science
 
Here's the hypocrisy of Andrea Leadsom (prominent Leave campaigner and current candidate for Tory party leader and therefore PM) exposed. Listen to what she had to say 3 years ago - it's completely unequivocal!
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(Wind to 09:08 to hear the relevant bit - embedding may have made the video go a bit weird)

I haven't listened to the video but she explained this somewhat on Andrew Marr this morning.

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And besides that, I used to be all for the death penalty, now I think it's wrong. People's views on things can and do change.

I'm finding all this remain nonsense pretty boring now to be honest, we voted to leave and that's what's going to happen, I just want us to hurry up and get on with it.
 
I haven't listened to the video but she explained this somewhat on Andrew Marr this morning.

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And besides that, I used to be all for the death penalty, now I think it's wrong. People's views on things can and do change.

I'm finding all this remain nonsense pretty boring now to be honest, we voted to leave and that's what's going to happen, I just want us to hurry up and get on with it.

There are immediate consequences to leaving relating to trade tarrifs and the financial markets that require planning and clarification. Whatever anyone is saying right now, it's sensible to prepare for the shock to the economy and for the city and businesses to know where they stand. It's unlikely to happen this year to be honest. There's a reason europe want us to 'leave now' and it's not for our own health.
 
Here's the hypocrisy of Andrea Leadsom (prominent Leave campaigner and current candidate for Tory party leader and therefore PM) exposed. Listen to what she had to say 3 years ago - it's completely unequivocal!
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

(Wind to 09:08 to hear the relevant bit - embedding may have made the video go a bit weird)
She is not for me, despite being very likeable . she lacks cabinet experience and has a degree of baggage. What she said in 2013 is not some of that baggage. She like any intelligent person could have then seen a future in a reformed EU. She explained this morning what we all felt that if Cameron would have came back with reforms that even showed the EU was willing to change it might have been different. But most of all things have changed since 2013 and immigration has not abated and with the middle east problems was likely to keep increasing.
I think after last summer even the most EU loving people had to come to terms with uncontrolled immigration.
 
Theresa May says rise in Europeans moving to UK likely before a Brexit
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/03/theresa-may-europeans-uk-brexit-brits-abroad

She's basically admitting what experts have warned all along (there's been a lot of that recently, it must be catching) i.e. that when you have a system that takes several years to be replaced, there's bound to be a rush of people seeking to be grand-fathered under the old system.

In other words, the Leave vote will cause a big spike in immigration - and there's nothing the government can do about it, because they're still bound by existing EU rules until 2 years after Article 50 is triggered (and it's anyone's guess when that will be)

Didn't have to be an expert to predict this, though if so called experts predict enough things often enough they are bound to be right sometimes.

Anyway good news for Edwin, hope that's made you feel better.
 
the Leave vote will cause a big spike in immigration - and there's nothing the government can do about it

Then you're surprised Leave won - government can't control its own borders.

But I doubt the correctness of that statement - Austria seems to manage to limit immigration:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35600220

It's probably more correct to say that the government lacks the will to do anything about it, rather than that nothing can be done.
 
Then you're surprised Leave won - government can't control its own borders.

But I doubt the correctness of that statement - Austria seems to manage to limit immigration:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35600220

It's probably more correct to say that the government lacks the will to do anything about it, rather than that nothing can be done.

Freedom of movement and asylum (often from non eu countries) are seperate issues. What Austria is doing is similar to how we approached the Syrian refugee issue.

Funnily enough issues like this and illegal immigration could be much more difficult to police in future. Our current border checks take place in place, with our border police and customs staff operating there under the Touquet Treaty. That may or not may change post EU. In addition, it's more likely now that Scotland (and possibly Northern Ireland) will quit the union. If Scotland does and eventually joins the EU in its own right, we will then have a land border with an EU country for the first time. The signifiance of that is that there would be nothing stopping hundreds of thousands of immigrants from legally moving to Scotland. They could then of course quite easily illegaly come to England if they wanted to. Something that is much more difficult at present. These are all issues that are worth giving thought to as they could become a reality for us post EU.
 
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The FTSE 250 remains down 4.5%, and the pound remains close to a 31-year low against the dollar (it has categorically not "recovered")

The FTSE 100 on the other hand is actually up on brexit, which may seem superficially surprising until one realises that approx 75% of the income of the FTSE 100 listed companies is earned in currencies other than the £ and therefore it's artificially inflated by the pound's collapse.

I know the tabloids fall back on FTSE 100 as a cheap and cheerful, lazy poor man's analogue for "the markets" but scratch below the surface and things are looking pretty bad.
This is only repeating what Holly Black said page 94 of Saturdays daily mail. I think it is a tabloid.
 
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