UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

Edwin · Jul 3, 2016

websaway said:
This is only repeating what Holly Black said page 94 of Saturdays daily mail. I think it is a tabloid.

I've no idea, I haven't read it.

websaway · Jul 3, 2016

newguy said:
Freedom of movement and asylum (often from non eu countries) are seperate issues. What Austria is doing is similar to how we approached the Syrian refugee issue.

Funnily enough issues like this and illegal immigration could be much more difficult to police in future. Our current border checks take place in place, with our border police and customs staff operating there under the Touquet Treaty. That may or not may change post EU. In addition, it's more likely now that Scotland (and possibly Northern Ireland) will quit the union. If Scotland does and eventually joins the EU in its own right, we will then have a land border with an EU country for the first time. The signifiance of that is that there would be nothing stopping hundreds of thousands of immigrants from legally moving to Scotland. They could then of course quite easily illegaly come to England if they wanted to. Something that is much more difficult at present. These are all issues that are worth giving thought to as they could become a reality for us post EU.

I think whatever the case in the future we will have moved away from uncontrolled numbers that could have been half a million a year or more in perpetuity.

websaway · Jul 3, 2016

Edwin said:
I've no idea, I haven't read it.

You should , you would not have made the statement you made.

newguy · Jul 3, 2016

websaway said:
I think whatever the case in the future we will have moved away from uncontrolled numbers that could have been half a million a year or more in perpetuity.

We'll have to see what the government has in store. They at least will not be able to use the EU as an excuse for the number of people allowed to come here (after all non EU immigration is significant too and has risen year on year despite us having no obligation to let non eu citiens live here).

websaway · Jul 3, 2016

Edwin said:
The FTSE 250 remains down 4.5%, and the pound remains close to a 31-year low against the dollar (it has categorically not "recovered")

The FTSE 100 on the other hand is actually up on brexit, which may seem superficially surprising until one realises that approx 75% of the income of the FTSE 100 listed companies is earned in currencies other than the £ and therefore it's artificially inflated by the pound's collapse.

I know the tabloids fall back on FTSE 100 as a cheap and cheerful, lazy poor man's analogue for "the markets" but scratch below the surface and things are looking pretty bad.

So yes this had already been outlined in the Daily mail on Saturday almost word for word. So nothing new there.

So far, Brexit has been little more than a storm in a teacup for the stock market as the FTSE bounced back this week and is now higher than it was at the start of the year.

But the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies is still 5 per cent lower than it was before the referendum result.

The FTSE 100 might be the most famous index of UK shares but it doesn't actually give much insight into the state of the UK economy.

That's because around 70 per cent of the revenues produced by the largest 100 businesses in the country actually come from overseas, typically in dollars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/in...nt-FTSE-100-s-recovery-s-250-matters-s-5.html

websaway · Jul 3, 2016

newguy said:
We'll have to see what the government has in store. They at least will not be able to use the EU as an excuse for the number of people allowed to come here (after all non EU immigration is significant too and has risen year on year despite us having no obligation to let non eu citiens live here).

Well the genie is out of the bottle. Governments will be elected on immigration policy and none will be able to use the racist card.

newguy · Jul 3, 2016

websaway said:
Well the genie is out of the bottle. Governments will be elected on immigration policy and none will be able to use the racist card.

It's two sided. Certainly governments will no longer be able to use "it's out of our hands" if immigation levels don't drop. By the same token people will no longer have an excuse for moaning about 'foreigners coming over here and stealing our jobs' or to look down on people who look or sound 'foreign'. It will highlight the difference between those who want numbers down and those who just don't like certain types of people, or seek to blame them for their own failings.

websaway · Jul 3, 2016

newguy said:
It's two sided. Certainly governments will no longer be able to use "it's out of our hands" if immigation levels don't drop. By the same token people will no longer have an excuse for moaning about 'foreigners coming over here and stealing our jobs' or to look down on people who look or sound 'foreign'. It will highlight the difference between those who want numbers down and those who just don't like certain types of people, or seek to blame them for their own failings.

You are never going to get rid of the blame game but yes
that's right, it will be controlled immigration as apposed to uncontrolled. not rocket science really . Uncontrolled immigration for an attractive island welfare state is suicidal, except for those of course who benefit from uncontrolled immigration, fortunately those were the minority.

Edwin · Jul 3, 2016

Britain must have a general election before activating article 50
Nick Clegg
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/03/britain-general-election-before-article-50

Worth a read, not least because of who the author is i.e. not just another journo opining.

Edwin · Jul 3, 2016

Five Thoughts on Brexit
https://medium.com/@DuncanWeldon/five-thoughts-on-brexit-1150a7dbfda4#.lom36q4h4

Some thought-provoking stuff there. The notion of a UKIP surge (very easy to believe) is particularly concerning.

Edwin · Jul 3, 2016

Opportunity or disaster? Small firms describe the impact of the Brexit vote
https://www.theguardian.com/small-b...-firms-describe-the-impact-of-the-brexit-vote

The really significant aspect isn't the article itself (although it's worth a quick once-over) but the comments "below the line". There are many, many dozens of examples of real-life businesses that have already lost contracts, opportunities, had to make or are planning redundancies, etc. etc. all as a result of Brexit.

It's only when you invest the time (and I realise that it does require wading through a lot of snark and mud-slinging as well) to read the whole lot that you start to get a clearer picture of just how immediately damaging the Leave vote has been. We're not talking about vague "post article-50" impact that may or may not happen, we're talking about regular employees and small business owners up and down the country, in all manner of lines of work, losing business right now.

looks · Jul 3, 2016

You are always going to have winners and losers. It's life.

websaway · Jul 3, 2016

Edwin said:
Opportunity or disaster? Small firms describe the impact of the Brexit vote
https://www.theguardian.com/small-b...-firms-describe-the-impact-of-the-brexit-vote

The really significant aspect isn't the article itself (although it's worth a quick once-over) but the comments "below the line". There are many, many dozens of examples of real-life businesses that have already lost contracts, opportunities, had to make or are planning redundancies, etc. etc. all as a result of Brexit.

It's only when you invest the time (and I realise that it does require wading through a lot of snark and mud-slinging as well) to read the whole lot that you start to get a clearer picture of just how immediately damaging the Leave vote has been. We're not talking about vague "post article-50" impact that may or may not happen, we're talking about regular employees and small business owners up and down the country, in all manner of lines of work, losing business right now.

Not much info on any of the businesses. I see one definite redundancy in all the posts. I hope the leaders in these businesses will be maybe a little more positive than you and can steer through their problems.

BHS recently sacked 11000 employees sh*t happens.

martin-s · Jul 3, 2016

Not a popular opinion with Brexiters, but I'm sticking with May for PM. I like the fact that she was a quiet remainer - perhaps that will help the Gov't look after the 48% better than if we had all-out leavers in charge.

looks · Jul 3, 2016

martin-s said:
Not a popular opinion with Brexiters, but I'm sticking with May for PM. I like the fact that she was a quiet remainer - perhaps that will help the Gov't look after the 48% better than if we had all-out leavers in charge.

I agree. Seems like a nice lady. Knows how to ship the bad people back. Both sides need to bee looked after. Control the amount of people coming in all i would change. Grant citizenship to all from the eu who are here now. Not much needs changing really

looks · Jul 4, 2016

And we think we have problems. Lets all say a prayer for all the people who have had their lives snatched away from them.

At Least 119 Die In IS Bombing In Baghdad & Bangladesh x

martin-s · Jul 4, 2016

Yes. Perspective, rather than irrational fear, would be very welcome

Edwin · Jul 4, 2016

martin-s said:
Yes. Perspective, rather than irrational fear, would be very welcome

That's just the thing, though. The fear isn't irrational. Not in the slightest. Why shouldn't people fear something that is genuinely frightening?

Those people talking about their immediate, first-hand experience of cancelled contracts, postponed deals, withheld grants, hiring freezes, higher input costs, etc. etc. in the comments to the Guardian article I posted earlier about the impact on small businesses... many of them sounded "fearful" for their future and that of their business. But that's because the situation is fear-inducing precisely because of the cancelled contracts, postponed deals, etc.

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

Edwin said:
That's just the thing, though. The fear isn't irrational. Not in the slightest. Why shouldn't people fear something that is genuinely frightening?

Those people talking about their immediate, first-hand experience of cancelled contracts, postponed deals, withheld grants, hiring freezes, higher input costs, etc. etc. in the comments to the Guardian article I posted earlier about the impact on small businesses... many of them sounded "fearful" for their future and that of their business. But that's because the situation is fear-inducing precisely because of the cancelled contracts, postponed deals, etc.