UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

pberry4032 · Jul 4, 2016

Edwin said:
That's just the thing, though. The fear isn't irrational. Not in the slightest. Why shouldn't people fear something that is genuinely frightening?

Those people talking about their immediate, first-hand experience of cancelled contracts, postponed deals, withheld grants, hiring freezes, higher input costs, etc. etc. in the comments to the Guardian article I posted earlier about the impact on small businesses... many of them sounded "fearful" for their future and that of their business. But that's because the situation is fear-inducing precisely because of the cancelled contracts, postponed deals, etc.

I wonder if some of these businesses. We're already on the edge or are using it as an excuse. I own a small business of 11 staff with £1m turnover but at the moment, despite all the fear monging, don't know how it will all affect us. It could actually be very good for us if we can weather a couple of years of tight belts.

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ndreds-of-thousands-of-uk-users-a7117081.html

Brain drain.

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

I can say how ridiculous the argument has become. People are saying that they would not have voted the way they did if x y and z. We can't even believe which way they voted in the first place.

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

websaway said:
I can say how ridiculous the argument has become. People are saying that they would not have voted the way they did if x y and z. We can't even believe which way they voted in the first place.

A certain percentage of people seem to think they've been duped by false or exagerated claims, but the vote is a done deal now. If people feel that way then they should reflect on how their reach decisions, rather than blame coverage I think. Also, it's natural anyway to wonder if you've made the right choice, whatever that choice is, when it relates to something that has many unknown aspects to it, and when its impact spans over many years.

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

Best way to get attention is to say I voted out and have now changed my mind.. When really I am a remainer who voted remain but I want to ignore the realities of democracy and vent my anger by telling lies. After all no one can ever prove it.

Edwin · Jul 4, 2016

Brexit roadmap: A guide to what happens next
http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-roadmap-a-guide-to-what-happens-next-eu-uk-negotiations/

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

websaway said:
Best way to get attention is to say I voted out and have now changed my mind.. When really I am a remainer who voted remain but I want to ignore the realities of democracy and vent my anger by telling lies. After all no one can ever prove it.

Or what I said.

Edwin · Jul 4, 2016

UK government faces pre-emptive legal action over Brexit decision
https://www.theguardian.com/law/201...de-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers

No longer a hypothetical... a leading law firm is taking action against the government - not to overturn the referendum itself, but to ensure that Article 50 can't be passed without an Act of Parliament (the implication being that it will never pass a parliament with 5-out-of-6 MPs in favour of Remain)

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

newguy said:
A certain percentage of people seem to think they've been duped by false or exagerated claims, but the vote is a done deal now. If people feel that way then they should reflect on how their reach decisions, rather than blame coverage I think. Also, it's natural anyway to wonder if you've made the right choice, whatever that choice is, when it relates to something that has many unknown aspects to it, and when its impact spans over many years.

It matters not a jot. The ballot is secret and you can not give any credibility to that claim. It opens the door to untold abuse of the process.
So 2 million people sign a petition saying they have changed their mind.
No one knows how they voted initially.
Blair was saying yesterday that people are allowed to change their minds. The argument is stupid and should be met with the contempt it deserves and not be debated.

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

Parliament will vote as the people have directed . Lawyers get paid for doing what they do.
Right, next.

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

Edwin said:
UK government faces pre-emptive legal action over Brexit decision
https://www.theguardian.com/law/201...de-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers

No longer a hypothetical... a leading law firm is taking action against the government - not to overturn the referendum itself, but to ensure that Article 50 can't be passed without an Act of Parliament (the implication being that it will never pass a parliament with 5-out-of-6 MPs in favour of Remain)

I think it's only right that it goes before parliament since it was advisory. At the same time though, most of these MPs represent areas that wish to leave the EU, even if their MPs didn't. Personally I wanted to remain but it does seem dubious to ignore the vote result as that feeds into the idea that the government doesn't care what the people think. If there was a workaround in the meantime (the EU softening on a sensible immigation cap - the leavers main conern) that could be a good balance though. That's why the Swiss situation is interesting. One to watch.

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

Edwin said:
UK government faces pre-emptive legal action over Brexit decision
https://www.theguardian.com/law/201...de-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers

No longer a hypothetical... a leading law firm is taking action against the government - not to overturn the referendum itself, but to ensure that Article 50 can't be passed without an Act of Parliament (the implication being that it will never pass a parliament with 5-out-of-6 MPs in favour of Remain)

See at least one company is making money and may well recruit.
Seems it's crowd justice, this is from their website.

This case has hit its target and contributions are now closed. If you'd like to receive email updates about the case,

The country has fought a referendum and it has produced a result: that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union. However, in setting up the referendum, the Government decided that it should only be 'advisory'. But advise who? Does it advise the Prime Minister so that she or he gets to decide whether we leave the European Union? Or must Parliament make this momentous decision for our country?

We are presently crowd-funding for two steps. First, to take advice from the leading public lawyers in the country: John Halford of Bindmans LLP instructing leading Queen's Counsel and Junior barrister specialising in constitutional law. And, second, to write to the Government to discover its position.

This could well be the most important public law case in living memory. Because of its public interest, each of the highly sought after lawyers has agreed to act for significantly below their normal market rate. And because everyone has an interest in its outcome, we would like everyone to have the opportunity to fund it.

Donations to this case are capped at £100.

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

websaway said:
It matters not a jot. The ballot is secret and you can not give any credibility to that claim. It opens the door to untold abuse of the process.
So 2 million people sign a petition saying they have changed their mind.
No one knows how they voted initially.
Blair was saying yesterday that people are allowed to change their minds. The argument is stupid and should be met with the contempt it deserves and not be debated.

I am basing my thought on actual observation, rather than how best can I fuel my dislike of leave/remain. Primarily because I do not judge people on which way they voted, it's a personal decision not supporting a team. I judge people on how they treat others.

I live in a very leave heavy area and several of the people I've spoken to since (people who were nailed on as leave beforehand) fit into the description I've given, hence my considered comment. No doubt some remain voters feel the same way too. I may have voted remain, but I'm not up for this game where people are being overly defined by how they voted as if they were beamed in from different planets. That's why I was careful to state that in any situation and whatever a persons beliefs it's normal and sensible to reflect on decisions that you make. Thanks.

martin-s · Jul 4, 2016

Edwin said:
the implication being that it will never pass a parliament with 5-out-of-6 MPs in favour of Remain

It's a political bloodbath waiting to happen. With the exception of Scottish and NI MPs, how could any of them expect to be taken seriously again if the result of the referendum doesn't stand?

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

martin-s said:
It's a political bloodbath waiting to happen. With the exception of Scottish and NI MPs, how could any of them expect to be taken seriously again if the result of the referendum doesn't stand?

I know it was 'advisory' but I agree that it would look bad and not send out a good message. I do quite like that enacting article 50 isn't something that was done straight away though, as it gives us leverage. The EU didn't want us to leave immiedalty for our own health :-D. My hope (it's probably not very likely since every EU country would have to agree) is that they crack and end up agreeing to a sensible immigrration cap within the EU. That would possibly be something that they'd go back to the public with if offered. Should that not happen, in all likelihood we'll leave early next year I think. Andrea Leadsom says she's leave immediately though I believe so it depends if her, Theresa May or someone else is prime mininster at the time.

newguy · Jul 4, 2016

Current betting odds for next prime minister:
Theresa May 4/9 Andrea Leadsom 7/2 Michael Gove 15/1

Article 50 to be triggered in:
2016 8/5
2017 4/9

websaway · Jul 4, 2016

Whoops! 15% CT

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-for-business-after-brexit-vote-a7117886.html

Edwin · Jul 4, 2016

websaway said:
Whoops! 15% CT

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-for-business-after-brexit-vote-a7117886.html

From the article...

However, the move is likely to also spark criticism. Many people will fear the loss in tax revenues will hurt the most vulnerable and hand over increased leverage to big business.

It's a pretty desperate move which shows just how rattled Osborne is getting.

To put it into context, Corporation Tax receipts for 2014/15 were £43 billion. So a move to 15% would shave about £11 billion off that, every year. That's more than all the money the UK will supposedly get back from leaving the EU!

monaghan · Jul 4, 2016

martin-s said:
It's a political bloodbath waiting to happen. With the exception of Scottish and NI MPs, how could any of them expect to be taken seriously again if the result of the referendum doesn't stand?

Have to agree with you, regardless of which way you voted, if the MP's don't accept the public opinion and instead vote on their own or party lines then how will the public be expected to have trust in politics again. The underlying trend for voting in general elections is going down already. Let's hope that the political engagement currently being shown at the moment continues and then we can all be involved in the future direction of the country.