EU Referendum

[Admin]

Err....if you could get those odds on both results then you'd be able to back both and guarantee a return...cant be right

 

[afx]

I wonder if there has ever been a case study which looked at whether betting odds can influence outcomes.

If the leave campaign had just taken a couple of million down the bookies and narrowed the odds, would it have made a leave result more likely by making it appear more credible?

Still desperately hoping that's what we get anyway, but we'll see. Did overhead a group of 50-60 ish year olds talking about how it wasn't their future, so that incitement of fear from the remain camp has obviously got through to some extent.

I don't believe a study is needed. I thought this was already pretty much known and accepted.

It's happened the other way around though. The big money has piled into remain.

Vested interests pool their cash to attempt to manipulate results by skewing "what the bookies say" due to most people assuming the bookies are never wrong. Happens all the time, and has happened over this vote. 62% of Ladbrokes bets have been placed on leave, but the odds are, (according to them) we're staying. Why ? Because the leavers bets are tiny relative to those who have placed big five figure bets on remain wildly skewing the odds to 76% in favour of remaining.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...merges-when-looking-behind-brexit-bookie-odds

 

[spiderspider]

Err....if you could get those odds on both results then you'd be able to back both and guarantee a return...cant be right

This is on their website:

'All winnings paid in free bets' '£10 max stake'

 

[gimpydog]

Err....if you could get those odds on both results then you'd be able to back both and guarantee a return...cant be right

I though 3/1 on remain looked generous, if it is as likely as they say. Just like buying money.

 

[gimpydog]

This is on their website:
View attachment 1232

'All winnings paid in free bets' '£10 max stake'

Bet £20 (£10 on each), get £40 back. Can't lose??

 

[bonusmedia]

I don't believe a study is needed. I thought this was already pretty much known and accepted.

It's happened the other way around though. The big money has piled into remain.

Vested interests pool their cash to attempt to manipulate results by skewing "what the bookies say" due to most people assuming the bookies are never wrong. Happens all the time, and has happened over this vote. 62% of Ladbrokes bets have been placed on leave, but the odds are, (according to them) we're staying. Why ? Because the leavers bets are tiny relative to those who have placed big five figure bets on remain wildly skewing the odds to 76% in favour of remaining.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...merges-when-looking-behind-brexit-bookie-odds

What evidence do you have that there is any attempt to influence the result?

The fact that there is a large amount of money being bet on remain does not indicate anything underhand - only that people who are prepared to bet a large amount of money see remain as the likely outcome.

I think this is a poor article by someone with little understanding of the bookmaking industry trying to create controversy

 

[bonusmedia]

Bet £20 (£10 on each), get £40 back. Can't lose??

No - £10 max stake all told.

They are giving money/value away to attract new customers, because a large enough % of those new customers will stick around to have a bet or two on the Euros and beyond.

Also your winnings are not paid as cash - they are free bets, so you then have to bet again

 

[gimpydog]

They are giving money/value away to attract new customers,

Who'd fall for a scheme like that?

 

[bonusmedia]

It's a good offer if you haven't already got a betfair account. Lots of very good bonuses about if you have the discipline to extract the maximum value and then stop. I got banned from most of the bookies doing this and ended up joining them

 

[Edwin]

I'd love to see people rocking up with quill and ink...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-pencils-conspiracy-fears-social-media-voters

 

[BREWSTERS]

I don't need to 'prove' you wrong any more than I need to prove that the sun isn't green. The only people supporting your assertion were a handful of deluded conspiracy theorists who have withdrawn the assertion because it turns out the man with the same name who died years ago was a different man.

"It turns out"....is that it? Hahaha...not even quoting where you saw that?

The site you linked to is not a reliable source, it is the rantings of a madman who claimed the vitamins he sold would cure AIDS.

As ever, absolutely zip about the content (largely from documents declassified after 60 years), just attack the source. DEAL WITH THE CONTENT OR ARE YOU SCARED TO BE PROVEN WRONG,? Because I feel like that is your greatest fear.

BULLSHIT.

Ask yourself why you need everything to be a conspiracy. I think psychologists suggest it gives people certainty in an uncertain world - we're hardwired to look for simplistic cause and effect and ill-equipped to deal with the level of complexity we face today

We live in a world of corruption and deceipt. Follow the money.

 

[bonusmedia]

"It turns out"....is that it? Hahaha...not even quoting where you saw that?



As ever, absolutely zip about the content (largely from documents declassified after 60 years), just attack the source. DEAL WITH THE CONTENT OR ARE YOU SCARED TO BE PROVEN WRONG,? Because I feel like that is your greatest fear.



We live in a world of corruption and deceipt. Follow the money.

I am making this post right now. I don't need to quote a source to prove that. Are you seriously still trying to suggest that Bernard Kenny died years ago? That would give me serious concerns for your mental health.

The content is not RELIABLE, because it comes from a source with a proven history of MAKING UP BULLSHIT FOR MONEY. 'Dr Rath' claimed to be able to cure AIDS with vitamins and made millions selling his BULLSHIT CURES. He is responsible for deaths of a large number of AIDS patients. THIS IS NOT A GOOD SOURCE OF INFORMATION.

Seek help, your children deserve better

 

[Admin]

I'm glad it's the eve of the result lol. Please EVERYONE try and avoid personal insults, there's been some excellent discussion, good points made and some funny posts, don't get personal.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I am making this post right now. I don't need to quote a source to prove that. Are you seriously still trying to suggest that Bernard Kenny died years ago? That would give me serious concerns for your mental health.

The content is not RELIABLE, because it comes from a source with a proven history of MAKING UP BULLSHIT FOR MONEY. 'Dr Rath' claimed to be able to cure AIDS with vitamins and made millions selling his BULLSHIT CURES. He is responsible for deaths of a large number of AIDS patients. THIS IS NOT A GOOD SOURCE OF INFORMATION.

Seek help, your children deserve better

It's for my children that I look beyond the veneer of a controlled media - thankfully more and more people are.

For the record, you haven't countered any of the content with anything more than flippant remarks.

I made a statement that the EU was started by Nazi's after their defeat in WW2.

I have named people and their roles within the EU. These people created the EU.

Facts are facts....it's undeniable. People, dates, jobs, etc. All there for the record - and you'll find the same information from multiple websites and books, so your rant and probably slanderous comments about the source don't hold any water. And to be technically correct...Dr Rath you mentioned isn't the source, merely the presenter. The source of the information is largely form fairly recently declassified documents.

bonusmedia - hasn't once attempted to disprove any of the content I've posted.

Last comment from me unless you can counter any of the information.

 

[gimpydog]

The average [William Hill] stake on Remain is £408, for Leave it’s £77 - but 70% of all bets have been placed on Britain quitting the EU.

Does that mean 70% have put there money where their mouth is and have voted to leave?

FXTM chief market strategist Hussein Sayed said: “The markets are being completely reliant on the predictions from the bookies, which strongly expect Remain to win the referendum.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-stacked-against-leave-vote-as-clock-ticks-112239796.html

Could be an interesting night on the FX markets.

 

[bonusmedia]

It's for my children that I look beyond the veneer of a controlled media - thankfully more and more people are.

For the record, you haven't countered any of the content with anything more than flippant remarks.

I made a statement that the EU was started by Nazi's after their defeat in WW2.

I have named people and their roles within the EU. These people created the EU.

Facts are facts....it's undeniable. People, dates, jobs, etc. All there for the record - and you'll find the same information from multiple websites and books, so your rant and probably slanderous comments about the source don't hold any water. And to be technically correct...Dr Rath you mentioned isn't the source, merely the presenter. The source of the information is largely form fairly recently declassified documents.

bonusmedia - hasn't once attempted to disprove any of the content I've posted.

Last comment from me unless you can counter any of the information.

If you want something more than a flippant dismissal you have to present something more than outrageous fantasy.

There are certainly many websites and books that will back you up, conspiracy theory is big business. That does not mean they are correct.

If you accept that Dr Rath is a murderous bullshitter but you still believe what he says - why not stop using him as a source and go directly to these declassified documents you refer to?

Though I do have to question the logic for a second - if these documents reveal a hidden conspiracy by Germany to take over the world by stealth via the EU, why would the documents be declassified?

I wish you the very best but I hope you come to recognise that your paranoid delusions are unhealthy.

EDIT: be very careful accusing people of libel/slander: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/sep/12/matthiasrath.aids2

 

[bonusmedia]

​

Does that mean 70% have put there money where their mouth is and have voted to leave?

​

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-stacked-against-leave-vote-as-clock-ticks-112239796.html

Could be an interesting night on the FX markets.

No. Those betting on the outcome are not at all representative of the population.

Hussein Sayed has a very clear interest in encouraging forex trading by suggesting the outcome is uncertain.

The markets are certainly not completely reliant on the 'predictions from the bookies'.

The bookies are not predicting anything, they are adjusting their odds to ensure they maintain an over-round and will thus make money whatever the outcome

 

[VSC]

For now, all I will say is that Hallstein, the first President of the EU, was a legal representative for the Nazis before and throughout WW2. Fact. Check it out anywhere.

Okay, not sure why I am reopening this because I expect that I will just be shouted down and accused of falling for mis-information but ...

Walter Hallstein was never a member of the Nazi party and indeed rejected Nazi ideology.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Hallstein
The only "information" I can find to support your theory re Hallstein is on a single website that could easily be accused of mis-representing facts (Also had an interesting article saying that there is good evidence to support that the Earth is hollow). Even so, thousands of people were forced in to the Nazi party just to be able to survive, and it is claimed that Hallstein joined professional organisations that were backed by the Nazi party only so he could carry on being a lawyer. After the war, he was never accused of any "crimes" and resumed his civilian life. England was saved invasion by the Channel and so never had to experience political repression and pressure such that the Nazi's imposed on their own people, and the rest of Europe.

He was not the first President of the EU, he was the first President of the Commission of the European Economic Community. There is no overall president of the EU as such:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Union

He was one of the founding fathers of the EU, along with Winston Chruchill and other European leaders and academics:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founding_fathers_of_the_European_Union

You are using unsubstantiated information.

 

[websaway]

We, the people, will have a vote. We will elect politicians to make decisions for us, in the belief they have a fuller understanding, because it is their full time job and because they are, at least supposedly, better qualified. That is parliamentary democracy. We do not operate a system of referenda on everything, we do not live under mob rule.

Turkey may eventually join the EU, if it is in the interest of the EU. That's probably 20 years away, I'm not sure why you're so worried about it.

You repreatedly state that I am naïve, that I don't understand, that I am easily led. It is extremely patronising. I am an intelligent, accomplished adult. You would have far more impact by concentrating on the arguments over the insults.

So where each constituency sent a representative to the big smoke to take a seat and make decisions . We now send someone to represent us in parliament to select someone to go and represent us in Brussels.
Where unelected appointed presidents whip decisions. Seems the politics is becoming more absent from the electorate. and you say what I describe there is parliamentary democracy.

I think the fact no one will even admit to allowing Turkey to join until the year 3000 tends to speak for itself.

On your third point, I'm sorry I had not noticed you were intelligent.
( tongue in cheek ) Let's call it a day. Good luck with everything.

 

[websaway]

Edwins back everybody, the remains must be winning.