EU Referendum

[bonusmedia]

First time I've been to one since voting for 'Nice peas, Norma' back in 92.

And all the while he was porking Currie

 

[Edwin]

This was fun... quirky polling stations.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...uirky-referendum-polling-stations-in-pictures

 

[BREWSTERS]

I've shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect.

"Shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect" ... SHOWN? Shown where? What was the post number?

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You are the one with the outlandish theories - it falls to you to provide evidence. That means evidence for your claims, not tangentially related facts that don't actually support them

You'd make a good politician because you never answer a direct question.

I assume that because you haven't responded about who started the EU you've found out I was right? Tell me I'm wrong about Walter Hallstein....no wait; this time please don't just say 'you're wrong' (which you seem to think is proof) tell everyone why I'm wrong.

 

[bonusmedia]

"Shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect" ... SHOWN? Shown where? What was the post number?

You'd make a good politician because you never answer a direct question.

I assume that because you haven't responded about who started the EU you've found out I was right? Tell me I'm wrong about Walter Hallstein....no wait; this time please don't just say 'you're wrong' (which you seem to think is proof) tell everyone why I'm wrong.

The sky is blue. This does not prove that the Sun is green.

If you want to claim the Sun is green, you have to provide evidence - you can't just shout at other people to prove you wrong.

(In case this isn't clear, I'll explain - the fact that Walter Hallstein was instrumental in setting up the EU does not prove that there was a secret German plot to take over the world by stealth. It would be highly surprising if there were no German academics involved in setting up the EU. Most young German men fought for Germany in the war. You cannot use a random fact to prove an unrelated hypothesis)

Enough. You're apparently not capable of rational argument.

 

[martin-s]

I wonder if there has ever been a case study which looked at whether betting odds can influence outcomes.

If the leave campaign had just taken a couple of million down the bookies and narrowed the odds, would it have made a leave result more likely by making it appear more credible?

Still desperately hoping that's what we get anyway, but we'll see. Did overhead a group of 50-60 ish year olds talking about how it wasn't their future, so that incitement of fear from the remain camp has obviously got through to some extent.

 

[bonusmedia]

That's an interesting question. I think polls have traditionally been given more weight - interest in betting odds seems to have increased after the polls were so badly wrong at the last general election.

Although it's the largest political betting event ever, it's still only £100 million ish at stake. Someone in the city did point out in the FT that people managing hundreds of billions should not be taking the movement of a few million either way too seriously.

The crucial thing for me is that although there have been vastly more bets for leave, there has been vastly more money put on remain. That tends to suggest that there are a lot of 'normal' punters betting on leave and fewer 'professionals' betting on remain.

Professional gamblers do generally get it right more often than not. That's not to say they are right this time.

Given that remain seems to be 'priced in' now, a leave vote would certainly be a major upset in the city, share prices and the value of the pound would probably hit free fall. Even a remain vote could well mean an initial drop in the pound now - the old 'buy the rumour, sell the news' principle at work

I think both sides are guilty of appealing to fear - UKIP has a lot to answer for with the anti-immigrant rhetoric.

 

[spiderspider]

I wonder if there has ever been a case study

American, but interesting read. May answer the question:
http://liberalarts.utexas.edu/gover...onandWlezienElectoralStudies2012published.pdf

Was also first result on Google

 

[Bailey]

This was fun... quirky polling stations.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...uirky-referendum-polling-stations-in-pictures

Give me the Polling Booth in a Pub anyday - If that was in Rochford (My home town, come village) There would be 7,000 voting to Stay and 'Bugger' to the referendum.

 

[bonusmedia]

American, but interesting read. May answer the question:
http://liberalarts.utexas.edu/gover...onandWlezienElectoralStudies2012published.pdf

Was also first result on Google

Useful study of how accurately markets predict outcomes, doesn't go into whether they influence the result.

Some people who would otherwise stay at home may go and vote if they believe the result is going against them - or conversely people who see it as a foregone conclusion may not bother voting - so a big swing in the odds or poll results might actually cause a balancing effect the other way

 

[martin-s]

Was also first result on Google

I didn't wonder enough to go digging tbh, but thanks!

 

[bonusmedia]

Odds heading the other way again - flurry of bets on leave

 

[BREWSTERS]

The sky is blue. This does not prove that the Sun is green.

If you want to claim the Sun is green, you have to provide evidence - you can't just shout at other people to prove you wrong.

(In case this isn't clear, I'll explain - the fact that Walter Hallstein was instrumental in setting up the EU does not prove that there was a secret German plot to take over the world by stealth. It would be highly surprising if there were no German academics involved in setting up the EU. Most young German men fought for Germany in the war. You cannot use a random fact to prove an unrelated hypothesis)

Enough. You're apparently not capable of rational argument.

So...you ignore that I asked you to say which post you'd supposedly proven me wrong about the hero! Typical.

You think Hallstein is a random fact?

Well here are a few thousand other facts to go with it... http://www.eu-facts.org/en/background/dark_roots_europe_lecture.html

You must be sooo sure of yourself that you didn't even bother to look for any evidence to try and disprove what I wrote. You could've found that site in seconds on Google.

Bye bye.

 

[bonusmedia]

So...you ignore that I asked you to say which post you'd supposedly proven me wrong about the hero! Typical.

You think Hallstein is a random fact?

Well here are a few thousand other facts to go with it... http://www.eu-facts.org/en/background/dark_roots_europe_lecture.html

You must be sooo sure of yourself that you didn't even bother to look for any evidence to try and disprove what I wrote. You could've found that site in seconds on Google.

Bye bye.

I don't need to 'prove' you wrong any more than I need to prove that the sun isn't green. The only people supporting your assertion were a handful of deluded conspiracy theorists who have withdrawn the assertion because it turns out the man with the same name who died years ago was a different man.

The site you linked to is not a reliable source, it is the rantings of a madman who claimed the vitamins he sold would cure AIDS.

BULLSHIT.

Ask yourself why you need everything to be a conspiracy. I think psychologists suggest it gives people certainty in an uncertain world - we're hardwired to look for simplistic cause and effect and ill-equipped to deal with the level of complexity we face today

 

[websaway]

Despite the anti-german jibe this is a reasonably fair and honest argument, and I'm glad you realize that your position involves an economic trade-off.

We have a veto on any further integration and have already stated we are not going to be part of it. Our identity is not at risk. We retain parliamentary sovereignty, as we always have

No no no you don't understand do you. We don't have a veto on anything, we, the people, will not have a vote. Take for instance Turkey joining, the PM has already agreed to it, why would he veto it, by the time they admit them it will all be agreed. Whichever government is in will decide how they vote and everything is a trade off. You really are naïve as to how these things work and very easily led. You have just voted our democracy away, though it will take time for you to see it. But we did have a choice and it is how it is. Anybody under 35 won't even notice the difference, they will grow into it and of course accept the gradual change and erosion of our understanding of parliamentary democracy over the next 40 years. We either wanted to keep our sovereignty and voter determination or we didn't.
The greater powers do not think the future should be entirely in the hands of the electorate. You have surely seen a super state influenced by big business in this referendum. All big business and government funded experts dancing to the tune of money.
He who pays the piper calls the tune.
This is not sour grapes, and it will be so gradual it will not be noticed, it's a very gradual erosion of self determination.

 

[gimpydog]

First Labour ad I've seen online....

http://www.labourleave.org.uk/gotv_splash?splash=1

Better late than never.

 

[Edwin]

Odds heading the other way again - flurry of bets on leave

Probably weather-related. There's another massive band of rain heading for London at the height of the evening commute...

 

[Edwin]

Just because today's a very serious decision, doesn't mean there's not a bit of levity to be found around the edges...

93 year old mum meme
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...xit-eu-referendum_uk_576bd432e4b098ec71a0999b

 

[bonusmedia]

No no no you don't understand do you. We don't have a veto on anything, we, the people, will not have a vote. Take for instance Turkey joining, the PM has already agreed to it, why would he veto it, by the time they admit them it will all be agreed. Whichever government is in will decide how they vote and everything is a trade off. You really are naïve as to how these things work and very easily led. You have just voted our democracy away, though it will take time for you to see it. But we did have a choice and it is how it is. Anybody under 35 won't even notice the difference, they will grow into it and of course accept the gradual change and erosion of our understanding of parliamentary democracy over the next 40 years. We either wanted to keep our sovereignty and voter determination or we didn't.
The greater powers do not think the future should be entirely in the hands of the electorate. You have surely seen a super state influenced by big business in this referendum. All big business and government funded experts dancing to the tune of money.
He who pays the piper calls the tune.
This is not sour grapes, and it will be so gradual it will not be noticed, it's a very gradual erosion of self determination.

We, the people, will have a vote. We will elect politicians to make decisions for us, in the belief they have a fuller understanding, because it is their full time job and because they are, at least supposedly, better qualified. That is parliamentary democracy. We do not operate a system of referenda on everything, we do not live under mob rule.

Turkey may eventually join the EU, if it is in the interest of the EU. That's probably 20 years away, I'm not sure why you're so worried about it.

You repreatedly state that I am naïve, that I don't understand, that I am easily led. It is extremely patronising. I am an intelligent, accomplished adult. You would have far more impact by concentrating on the arguments over the insults.

 

[gimpydog]

Odds heading the other way again - flurry of bets on leave

I wish I knew enough about betting to know what this means...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Good or bad?

 

[bonusmedia]

I wish I knew enough about betting to know what this means...

View attachment 1230 View attachment 1231
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Good or bad?

These are not genuine odds, it is a promotional offer to attract new customers and the amount you can bet is very limited