EU Referendum

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

BREWSTERS said:
BS? Is that you're response? If you're so cocksure it's BS, how about throwing in a few reasons why you think that? How do you think the EU got started and by whom?

You stated earlier that 'demonstrably' that was wrong, but twice you've failed to demonstrate it. Either do so please or stop repeating it.

Besides, that's just one aspect of many which points to a false flag.

I've shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect. It goes a long way in showing your ability to filter truth from fantasy. Your other points are subjective - the suggestion that her parents weren't grieving enough is not provable one way or the other, sickening though it is.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You are the one with the outlandish theories - it falls to you to provide evidence. That means evidence for your claims, not tangentially related facts that don't actually support them

gimpydog · Jun 23, 2016

Polling station looked busy. Not sure if that's good, or bad.

Got a badge. Took a selfie...

Vote Early - Vote Often.

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

websaway said:
One last thing.
When we were first thinking about joining the Deutsche Mark, the economic arguments were all in favour of us joining. I did not want to lose the pound, I believed it was an intrinsic part of British life and if we lost it we would lose part of our Identity.
The reason I don't want further integration into a united states of Europe is similar. Put up all the economic arguments, they don't stand up to losing the intrinsic things of our long history of self rule. It's too big a trade off.

Despite the anti-german jibe this is a reasonably fair and honest argument, and I'm glad you realize that your position involves an economic trade-off.

We have a veto on any further integration and have already stated we are not going to be part of it. Our identity is not at risk. We retain parliamentary sovereignty, as we always have

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

Betting odds for remain collapsed to 1/12 vs 7/1 for leave, pound rapidly gaining ground.

Toonz · Jun 23, 2016

Just returned from the polling station to drop off my postal vote and my partner's. First time I've been to one since voting for 'Nice peas, Norma' back in 92. Felt nice to be doing it on the day this time around.

denchomsky · Jun 23, 2016

bonusmedia said:
Betting odds for remain collapsed to 1/12 vs 7/1 for leave, pound rapidly gaining ground.

Based on what? Are they doing exit polls anywhere? not at my polling station.

spiderspider · Jun 23, 2016

I don't get why none of you Guardian readers haven't posted this link yet:

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...-footballer-sent-off-for-farting-during-match

Possibly the best thing to ever read in The Guardian

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

denchomsky said:
Based on what? Are they doing exit polls anywhere? not at my polling station.

No, no exit polls. Betting odds are based on how much money is bet on each side. Often, but not always a useful indicator, since those willing to stake large amounts tend to have some insight.

Those with vast financial interests in the outcome, such as hedge funds, are running their own polls and have the brightest minds in risk working on predicting/modelling outcomes. It would seem the city has decided we're going to vote remain.

As ever nothing certain til the fat lady sings though

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

Toonz said:
First time I've been to one since voting for 'Nice peas, Norma' back in 92.

And all the while he was porking Currie

Edwin · Jun 23, 2016

This was fun... quirky polling stations.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...uirky-referendum-polling-stations-in-pictures

BREWSTERS · Jun 23, 2016

bonusmedia said:
I've shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect.

"Shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect" ... SHOWN? Shown where? What was the post number?

bonusmedia said:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You are the one with the outlandish theories - it falls to you to provide evidence. That means evidence for your claims, not tangentially related facts that don't actually support them

You'd make a good politician because you never answer a direct question.

I assume that because you haven't responded about who started the EU you've found out I was right? Tell me I'm wrong about Walter Hallstein....no wait; this time please don't just say 'you're wrong' (which you seem to think is proof) tell everyone why I'm wrong.

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

BREWSTERS said:
"Shown that the fact you quoted about the elderly man was incorrect" ... SHOWN? Shown where? What was the post number?

You'd make a good politician because you never answer a direct question.

I assume that because you haven't responded about who started the EU you've found out I was right? Tell me I'm wrong about Walter Hallstein....no wait; this time please don't just say 'you're wrong' (which you seem to think is proof) tell everyone why I'm wrong.

The sky is blue. This does not prove that the Sun is green.

If you want to claim the Sun is green, you have to provide evidence - you can't just shout at other people to prove you wrong.

(In case this isn't clear, I'll explain - the fact that Walter Hallstein was instrumental in setting up the EU does not prove that there was a secret German plot to take over the world by stealth. It would be highly surprising if there were no German academics involved in setting up the EU. Most young German men fought for Germany in the war. You cannot use a random fact to prove an unrelated hypothesis)

Enough. You're apparently not capable of rational argument.

martin-s · Jun 23, 2016

I wonder if there has ever been a case study which looked at whether betting odds can influence outcomes.

If the leave campaign had just taken a couple of million down the bookies and narrowed the odds, would it have made a leave result more likely by making it appear more credible?

Still desperately hoping that's what we get anyway, but we'll see. Did overhead a group of 50-60 ish year olds talking about how it wasn't their future, so that incitement of fear from the remain camp has obviously got through to some extent.

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

That's an interesting question. I think polls have traditionally been given more weight - interest in betting odds seems to have increased after the polls were so badly wrong at the last general election.

Although it's the largest political betting event ever, it's still only £100 million ish at stake. Someone in the city did point out in the FT that people managing hundreds of billions should not be taking the movement of a few million either way too seriously.

The crucial thing for me is that although there have been vastly more bets for leave, there has been vastly more money put on remain. That tends to suggest that there are a lot of 'normal' punters betting on leave and fewer 'professionals' betting on remain.

Professional gamblers do generally get it right more often than not. That's not to say they are right this time.

Given that remain seems to be 'priced in' now, a leave vote would certainly be a major upset in the city, share prices and the value of the pound would probably hit free fall. Even a remain vote could well mean an initial drop in the pound now - the old 'buy the rumour, sell the news' principle at work

I think both sides are guilty of appealing to fear - UKIP has a lot to answer for with the anti-immigrant rhetoric.

spiderspider · Jun 23, 2016

martin-s said:
I wonder if there has ever been a case study

American, but interesting read. May answer the question:
http://liberalarts.utexas.edu/gover...onandWlezienElectoralStudies2012published.pdf

Was also first result on Google

Bailey · Jun 23, 2016

Edwin said:
This was fun... quirky polling stations.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...uirky-referendum-polling-stations-in-pictures

Give me the Polling Booth in a Pub anyday - If that was in Rochford (My home town, come village) There would be 7,000 voting to Stay and 'Bugger' to the referendum.

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

spiderspider said:
American, but interesting read. May answer the question:
http://liberalarts.utexas.edu/gover...onandWlezienElectoralStudies2012published.pdf

Was also first result on Google

Useful study of how accurately markets predict outcomes, doesn't go into whether they influence the result.

Some people who would otherwise stay at home may go and vote if they believe the result is going against them - or conversely people who see it as a foregone conclusion may not bother voting - so a big swing in the odds or poll results might actually cause a balancing effect the other way

martin-s · Jun 23, 2016

spiderspider said:
Was also first result on Google

I didn't wonder enough to go digging tbh, but thanks!

bonusmedia · Jun 23, 2016

Odds heading the other way again - flurry of bets on leave

BREWSTERS · Jun 23, 2016

bonusmedia said:
The sky is blue. This does not prove that the Sun is green.

If you want to claim the Sun is green, you have to provide evidence - you can't just shout at other people to prove you wrong.

(In case this isn't clear, I'll explain - the fact that Walter Hallstein was instrumental in setting up the EU does not prove that there was a secret German plot to take over the world by stealth. It would be highly surprising if there were no German academics involved in setting up the EU. Most young German men fought for Germany in the war. You cannot use a random fact to prove an unrelated hypothesis)

Enough. You're apparently not capable of rational argument.

So...you ignore that I asked you to say which post you'd supposedly proven me wrong about the hero! Typical.

You think Hallstein is a random fact?

Well here are a few thousand other facts to go with it... http://www.eu-facts.org/en/background/dark_roots_europe_lecture.html

You must be sooo sure of yourself that you didn't even bother to look for any evidence to try and disprove what I wrote. You could've found that site in seconds on Google.

Bye bye.