EU Referendum

[Mark84]

Can we get a favourable trade deal with Europe that doesn't include free movement of people

What you are asking asks us to evaluate the competence of the EU negotiators and the EU commission. As they will be the ones that we will be negotiating with.

If the EU is daft enough to put tariffs on our products entering Europe, they must know that similar tariffs would be put on their products: cars, agriculture etc. If they did so, everybody agrees that they will be doing it to try and punish the UK rather than economic reasons for the EU.

If that is the case - you seem to believe it is likely they will try to punish us for political reasons, why would you want to continue with stupid people negotiating your existing EU deals with the rest of the world which is expanding?

Surely it's a win win, if we leave and they aren't stupid - we get a good deal. If we leave and they are stupid, we get rid of stupid people negotiating our trade deals globally.

 

[websaway]

They don't have an answer. Just like how leave don't have an answer to if we leave is it going to tank the economy, Can we get a favourable trade deal with Europe that doesn't include free movement of people, how long will it take to negotiate. Will it break up Great Britain, what happens to all the migrants who live hear already. How many migrants is a good number. How will destabilising Europe effect cooperation on counter terrorism, crime, climate change, science.

A lot of these questions are not so difficult to address.
Reason tells us that we have among the best intelligence in the world, no EU country is not going to want to use us a an anti terrorist partner.
The scots don't really want another referendum and to suggest us leaving the EU would encourage them to leave the UK is at least doubtful.
Germany are not going to stop selling us cars, that's why they are scaring us because they know that.
Negotiations for trade deals will depend on how many countries want to trade with us. America is our biggest customer. We have a huge consumer economy.
Immigrants who are in the UK stay full stop. Nobody has said anything different.
The number of migrants will be based on humanitarian necessities, and selective immigration for the economic good of the UK.

The only argument to remain is fear based economic forecasts. Anyone who has followed world economics over the years knows that an economy is balanced depending on the circumstances. The argument that the world will abandon the Pound for any length of time is ridiculous and large companies who say they will look at their position, don't really want to have to look at their positions and would rather we remain to avoid that. But most when weighing up the pros and cons of moving will be given sweeteners if necessary to stay in the UK until the economy starts to grow , especially autos who have trained staff and expensive plant will find it very inconvenient to re-locate. If you were the governor of the BOE or the treasury, what would you do, tell everyone that we will be OK outside the EU or settle for an easy life and hedge your bets that we will stop in.
Mervyn King the ex BOE head does not agree with the remainers on the economy. He said
Former Bank of England Governor Lord King has said that the economic costs of Britain leaving the European Union have been "exaggerated", as he accused those on both sides of the forthcoming EU referendum debate of treating it like a "public relations campaign".

Strange what you are allowed to say if your job doesn't depend on it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...brexit-is-being-exaggerated-says-former-bank/

 

[Skinner]

I were talking to a Labour voting, Ushite Union Rep who is born and bred in scotland as I don't follow the scots politics (don't really follow any tbh), he says Sturgeon has no hope of attempting another indyref without the opinion polls showing at least 60% pro over many months. He also said there is no legal trigger or tie on the UK Ref to trigger a scots referendum. He also says that Sturgeon nor Salmond or anyone else had any clue how the currency would work without Scotland using the Pound (which sturgeon guaranteed scotland would NOT use the euro but would use the pound), but he thinks they would have to use it unilaterally which would mean scotland would need to buy like 20bn worth of currency AND run a surplus (thats apparently how it works), the only other way to use the pound would be for the UK to continue setting the scots budget. Unless they figure out a solve this, its not looking good.

Another friend who is an SNP Activist (not sure if thats the right word he does the door to thing and helps out etc) says basically in the UK leaves the EU and drags Scotland with it, Scotland would never vote to leave the UK without cast iron agreement to enter the EU or some major deals in place as a totally independent scotland isn't on the cards... which seems bizarre, I would have assumed thats the whole idea of Independent Scotland.

Seems UK breaking up is currently a none issue, even less in the event of brexit.

I may have misunderstood it, or asked the wrong questions as I said I don't follow politics much and certainly virtually no scots stuff.

On a side note, I'm curious how a trade deal with American wouldn't include another variation of TTIP exclusively for us, which would basically be a search and replace EU for UK.

Lastly (this may have been mentioned already) but it were pointed out a few days ago (business insider i think), that there is no legal trigger on this referendum, so in theory even if the country votes brexit the current government can essentially ignore it and choose to stay anyway or put it to the commons/lords to decide. Which kinda makes this whole sorry affair even more shit.

 

[gimpydog]

Lets call them Eastern European white people then

Can we not just call them "Polish", or "Poles"? That way nobody can take offence on their behalf & start shouting the 'R' word.

It is interesting that you think the migrating Poles are a good example of the EU project. Millions have left Poland (& Spain & Portugal & Greece etc.) to work in Germany or the UK. Their home countries suffer as a result, the unskilled Brits & Germans suffer from lower wages too, not to mention the rationing of public services.

Who wins? The businesses getting the cheap labour. The rich countries getting richer.

Meanwhile, the countries they left behind stagnate & have to live on handouts. In 20 yrs time, only the sick, the lame, the lazy & the wealthy elite will be left living there.

This is the result of the EU's policies in action....

The figures show unemployment rates after mass youth emigration. Why would you vote for that?

 

[gimpydog]

On a side note, I'm curious how a trade deal with American wouldn't include another variation of TTIP exclusively for us, which would basically be a search and replace EU for UK.

We don't have a trade deal with them at the moment & we dont have to have one in the future. If we did go down that route, it would be negotiated by Brits, 100% for Brits. Not 1/28th in our interest, as TTIP is at the moment.

How our trade deals currently work...

...there is no legal trigger on this referendum, so in theory even if the country votes brexit the current government can essentially ignore it and choose to stay anyway or put it to the commons/lords to decide.

I believe that to be true. Imagine if 'leave' win by one vote - the devious bastards would probably try to ignore the result. However, a decent majority & they ignore it at their peril.

 

[Avano Ltd]

Confused:
Should we make physical things?
Should we grow things?
Both we cannot compete on the world stage due to the cost of people.....mind you the robots will soon be here
So we have to be a skills based economy

you make what you want dougy baby, what I suggest is iRobot type production line, then we can actually achieve "physical things" and "grow things", I aim to please, you have not emailed via linkedin for at least a week about a new venture Doug?

 

[websaway]

It would need a big remain vote to stop any future problems. People who are genuinely concerned with free movement will desert the mainstream parties and look for alternatives.
I just wonder listening to Jeremy Corbyn if he does not consider this as pay back time to all the labour voters who deserted the left to elect Blair.
I don't think he forgives and forgets.

 

[websaway]

Another guy Steve Hilton ex advisor to the PM.
Strange how, like Mervyn King ex gov BOE , people who are not going to lose their jobs can say what they really think about Brexit.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/681252/Steve-Hilton-eu-referendum-peston-on-sunday

 

[websaway]

Essential reading in todays telegraph.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ng-to-fail-on-thursday-we-can-protect-britai/

 

[BeachLife]

Essential reading in todays telegraph.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ng-to-fail-on-thursday-we-can-protect-britai/

Just rhetoric.

 

[spiderspider]

On a side note, I'm curious how a trade deal with American wouldn't include another variation of TTIP exclusively for us, which would basically be a search and replace EU for UK.

Does the EU have a trade deal with the USA? The TTIP is still in negotiation, see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership

There was a thingy on Radio other day, (think it was this one, if not part 1
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07jl61s )

...that said EU has something like 54 trade negotiations. That may sound good, however these are for places like Norway, Iceland etc. See here and scroll to bottom:
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/agreements/index_en.htm#_europe

Anywhere else is still in negotiation. Given how the EU works, you can expect 'negotiations' to stretch on a bit. Maybe in our lifetimes..........

 

[AlistairM]

Watched DC on Question Time and he took on the same tactic as GO when interviewed by Andrew Neil. When pushed on the question of his "renegotiations" and whether it would actually happen because it could simply be overruled he started getting all loud and blustery and bringing Winston Churchill into the argument. In other words if you're losing the argument, diver divert divert.

 

[websaway]

Refreshing, don't read if you are very sensitive about the truth.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-Jo-Cox-private-martyr-beneath-contempt.html

 

[websaway]

Watched DC on Question Time and he took on the same tactic as GO when interviewed by Andrew Neil. When pushed on the question of his "renegotiations" and whether it would actually happen because it could simply be overruled he started getting all loud and blustery and bringing Winston Churchill into the argument. In other words if you're losing the argument, diver divert divert.

Yes the PM used a mechanic as an example of an expert, the experts we are relying for his advice. So is he saying even experts will mislead you in their own interest.

an excerpt about mechanics from this is money .co.uk

Visiting a garage if your car needs to be repaired can be a baffling and costly experience, especially for those with limited motoring knowledge.
Even those who know their way around an engine can struggle as today's cars carry an ever expanding array of hi-tech electrical devices that require experts to put right.
It leaves drivers relying increasingly on professional mechanics to put their car right, and the imbalance of knowledge can lead them vulnerable to rip offs and sharp practice.



Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2718763/Five-essential-tips-visiting-garage-car-repairs.html#ixzz4C3gJAWu6
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 

[websaway]

Larry Elliott is the economic editor of the Guardian, he has written five books on related issues.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...aving-eu-is-not-being-heard-referendum-brexit

 

[BREWSTERS]

3 minute video of the lies told to Norway before they rejected EU membership

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Sound familiar?

 

[denchomsky]

I don't think you will see any more remain posts on this thread. I think it's job done. Just seen a very pro remain city trading 'expert' on the BBC say that since the murder of Joe Cox the pound has done nothing but rise as public opinion has swung to remain as the murderer was a brexit supporter.

Her death was a disgusting act of violence but will have a significant influence on the vote. This is unfortunate or very fortunate depending on which way you look at it, but just goes to show that where, doom and gloom, stats and figures where not having an influence on the undecideds a human tragedy does. Her murder is totally irrelevant, I would say that most intelligent pro-remain supporters would agree, it has absolutely nothing to do with the EU. To be influenced by it is ridiculous as it's negative influence is one of association, it's like blaming all Muslims for ISIS.

 

[websaway]

The betting odds have not moved . But I think this saddest of sad events is manna from heaven for the remain campaign.

Odds are 3/1 to leave.
As predicted last Friday morning above it looks like this sad event has been used to swing it to remain.

326,000 British soldiers sacrificed their lives in world war two to defend our sovereignty, one life lost to surrender it now.

It has proved one thing, you will get people to follow far easier by appealing to their heart than threatening their resolve.

 

[websaway]

Had I have had the chance to talk to the PM last night, I would have asked.
Last year we took in 333,000 net migrants into the UK, a population the size of Newcastle. Where are we going to put the 333,000 that come in next year, and the year after that, and the year after that, and where are we going to put the houses necessary to house an increase in population the size of Birmingham every 3 years. Will we be putting the people in your constituency ? will we be building the houses in your back yard ?

 

[websaway]

I've not had the time to follow this thread, but wanted to post this incase it hasn't already been shared, apologies if it has.

I've been on the fence with my vote, despite doing some research into both sides and following some of the debates, I was just left with the feeling that the numbers being quotes were false, and both campaigns were being run in a pretty negative way.

I found this talk really informative, and it cleared up a few misconceptions I had about the way the EU operates.

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Hope some others find it useful too.

Michael specialises in EU Law, particularly EU constitutional law, the Single Market and EU welfare law

Does anyone think that a person who makes his living on the back of the EU would want us to leave. I've said from outset it's about self interest.
Wonder what he would suggest we do with an increase in population the size of Birmingham every 3 years. Or is that just a by-product of him maintaining a good career.