EU Referendum

[dougs]

Let me try and hit the nail on the head. It is not about those that have come. IT's ABOUT THOSE THAT ARE TO COME. if you can tell me how many, and of course you can't, and how we are to accommodate them, ( a city the size of Birmingham, every three of four years ) then I am intelligent enough to balance it , but neither you nor anyone else is prepared to say.
If people came to live in your mansion and told you it was OK because there was a nil cost to you when you look at what they eat and how much they contribute, you might say, well how many are coming, who are they, and eventually your mansion will not sensibly be able to accommodate any more.

Agreed we should know and have plans, but only half come from the EU...hence their are 2 issues you are talking about:

EU immigration - this has always ebbed and flowed between countries that are doing well and the others...hence in the 80's the Brits went to work in Germany...hence the poles initially came to the UK, but many are going home.

None EU immigration - aslong as we help to create wars then this will happen, but once again it ebbs and flows. Even if we did not create a war, drought, etc it is the right thing to do as humans and to help humanity. Maybe stopping the reasons why people uproot their families and lives etc to move is the thing we should focus on, rather than whinging about a problem happening with immigration, when we created the reason.

 

[Mark84]

There was no increase in Romanians:

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....garians-coming-uk-2014-influx-or-exaggeration

That's just naive Doug, for a start how does that 2014 report take into account the admission of dodgy accounting of figures regarding NI numbers that the Home Office has now admitted to in May 2016?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271390

(with the reviews figures)

Quote BBC: The number of National Insurance numbers issued to Bulgarians and Romanians has jumped from below 50,000 to more than 200,000 since work restrictions on people from those countries were lifted in 2014.​

Don't worry though, when we all get our EU Tax Numbers, we won't be able to catch anyone out on these dodgy figures.

 

[websaway]

Agreed we should know and have plans, but only half come from the EU...hence their are 2 issues you are talking about:

EU immigration - this has always ebbed and flowed between countries that are doing well and the others...hence in the 80's the Brits went to work in Germany...hence the poles initially came to the UK, but many are going home.

None EU immigration - aslong as we help to create wars then this will happen, but once again it ebbs and flows. Even if we did not create a war, drought, etc it is the right thing to do as humans and to help humanity. Maybe stopping the reasons why people uproot their families and lives etc to move is the thing we should focus on, rather than whinging about a problem happening with immigration, when we created the reason.

Well then we would decide this ourselves in our own parliament who we took for humanitarian reasons and who for economic reasons, it's not rocket science, but it would be controlled.

 

[websaway]

The world was once small little tribes, then the tribes became clams and then countries....what next.

Advancement does not happen by having little goals but audacious dreams

Yes, you mean like bush and blair, no, pie in the sky doug. Get our own house in order and then and only then we can look at non military humanitarian help. You can't plan if you don't know what the cap is.

 

[websaway]

Great article in the telegraph below.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...leave-to-create-a-britain-fit-for-the-future/

 

[dougs]

That's just naive Doug, for a start how does that 2014 report take into account the admission of dodgy accounting of figures regarding NI numbers that the Home Office has now admitted to in May 2016?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271390

(with the reviews figures)

Quote BBC: The number of National Insurance numbers issued to Bulgarians and Romanians has jumped from below 50,000 to more than 200,000 since work restrictions on people from those countries were lifted in 2014.​

Don't worry though, when we all get our EU Tax Numbers, we won't be able to catch anyone out on these dodgy figures.

Good point out but the article also says:

The ONS said it did not have enough data to understand whether this was being driven by short-term migration and some of the increase might be accounted for Bulgarian and Romanian citizens already in the UK applying for NI numbers, and some people might change their mind about how long they planned to stay.

 

[Mark84]

Good point out but the article also says:

The ONS said it did not have enough data to understand whether this was being driven by short-term migration and some of the increase might be accounted for Bulgarian and Romanian citizens already in the UK applying for NI numbers, and some people might change their mind about how long they planned to stay.

Yep that is true Doug, unfortunately I have the view of most Government of looking at the worst case scenario rather than them telling the truth which isn't our fault.

To be honest, I fear the numbers that the BBC quote, I think they are way off because in truth we don't count anyone in or out and "who knows" is probably the honest answer.

What happens when people don't know, or don't trust what they are given, is that they tend to make things up. I only fear what someone can do with that lack of trust one day, I'm talking way further down the danger line than anything anyone can imagine UKIP are capable of.

 

[dougs]

Yes, you mean like bush and blair, no, pie in the sky doug. Get our own house in order and then and only then we can look at non military humanitarian help. You can't plan if you don't know what the cap is.

Big Hairy Audacious Goals is how you deliver change...not fixing the plumbing Fixing the plumbing is obvious when you know the goal. I believe the idea of the EU was and is a BHAG

 

[BREWSTERS]

So

Big Hairy Audacious Goals is how you deliver change...not fixing the plumbing Fixing the plumbing is obvious when you know the goal. I believe the idea of the EU was and is a BHAG

So was WW11 - oh sorry, same goal, but through stealth not force.

Why the rush for change? Most western governments are technically bankrupt - is that a good change? Ask any Palestinian if change is working for them. Reforming the banking system, now that would be worthwhile change. For the masses, not the leaders.
But people aren't interested while they can get cheap credit, and the Euro's are on, or Downton.

 

[websaway]

Interesting listening to Jeremy Corbyn this morning . Who when told that people were angry about uncontrolled immigration.

He said that.
" They should turn their anger on this current Government "

Probably not the most choice words under the current circumstance.

 

[websaway]

Jeremy Corbyn said today that he does not want to cap immigration and while you have economic disaster like in Greece, we can expect more migration from the EU. So not much hope for the good people of England on concerns about immigration if the Leader of the opposition has any say in it. We will need to provide for even more than the previously estimated 300 to 400,000 people per year or a city the size of Newcastle every year. Still haven't heard from any remainers in the media where we are going to put them. 300,000 people putting strain on the system , schools, hospitals, jobs , and surely most of all housing, where, if it were possible, and it's not , are we going to build the houses, who's backyard. Already urban spread has ruined most city views of our green and pleasant land. Inner city people have to travel further out to even see green belt. This is not Jeremy Corbyns land to give away, this is not a case of , oh well part of staying in the EU is that we will swell our population by a city the size of Birmingham every 3 or 4 years, or even more because it will be more , the more we accommodate the more will come, naturally.

 

[AssetDomains]

Jeremy Corbyn said today that he does not want to cap immigration and while you have economic disaster like in Greece, we can expect more migration from the EU. So not much hope for the good people of England on concerns about immigration if the Leader of the opposition has any say in it. We will need to provide for even more than the previously estimated 300 to 400,000 people per year or a city the size of Newcastle every year. Still haven't heard from any remainers in the media where we are going to put them. 300,000 people putting strain on the system , schools, hospitals, jobs , and surely most of all housing, where, if it were possible, and it's not , are we going to build the houses, who's backyard. Already urban spread has ruined most city views of our green and pleasant land. Inner city people have to travel further out to even see green belt. This is not Jeremy Corbyns land to give away, this is not a case of , oh well part of staying in the EU is that we will swell our population by a city the size of Birmingham every 3 or 4 years, or even more because it will be more , the more we accommodate the more will come, naturally.

They don't have an answer. Just like how leave don't have an answer to if we leave is it going to tank the economy, Can we get a favourable trade deal with Europe that doesn't include free movement of people, how long will it take to negotiate. Will it break up Great Britain, what happens to all the migrants who live hear already. How many migrants is a good number. How will destabilising Europe effect cooperation on counter terrorism, crime, climate change, science.

 

[Mark84]

Can we get a favourable trade deal with Europe that doesn't include free movement of people

What you are asking asks us to evaluate the competence of the EU negotiators and the EU commission. As they will be the ones that we will be negotiating with.

If the EU is daft enough to put tariffs on our products entering Europe, they must know that similar tariffs would be put on their products: cars, agriculture etc. If they did so, everybody agrees that they will be doing it to try and punish the UK rather than economic reasons for the EU.

If that is the case - you seem to believe it is likely they will try to punish us for political reasons, why would you want to continue with stupid people negotiating your existing EU deals with the rest of the world which is expanding?

Surely it's a win win, if we leave and they aren't stupid - we get a good deal. If we leave and they are stupid, we get rid of stupid people negotiating our trade deals globally.

 

[websaway]

They don't have an answer. Just like how leave don't have an answer to if we leave is it going to tank the economy, Can we get a favourable trade deal with Europe that doesn't include free movement of people, how long will it take to negotiate. Will it break up Great Britain, what happens to all the migrants who live hear already. How many migrants is a good number. How will destabilising Europe effect cooperation on counter terrorism, crime, climate change, science.

A lot of these questions are not so difficult to address.
Reason tells us that we have among the best intelligence in the world, no EU country is not going to want to use us a an anti terrorist partner.
The scots don't really want another referendum and to suggest us leaving the EU would encourage them to leave the UK is at least doubtful.
Germany are not going to stop selling us cars, that's why they are scaring us because they know that.
Negotiations for trade deals will depend on how many countries want to trade with us. America is our biggest customer. We have a huge consumer economy.
Immigrants who are in the UK stay full stop. Nobody has said anything different.
The number of migrants will be based on humanitarian necessities, and selective immigration for the economic good of the UK.

The only argument to remain is fear based economic forecasts. Anyone who has followed world economics over the years knows that an economy is balanced depending on the circumstances. The argument that the world will abandon the Pound for any length of time is ridiculous and large companies who say they will look at their position, don't really want to have to look at their positions and would rather we remain to avoid that. But most when weighing up the pros and cons of moving will be given sweeteners if necessary to stay in the UK until the economy starts to grow , especially autos who have trained staff and expensive plant will find it very inconvenient to re-locate. If you were the governor of the BOE or the treasury, what would you do, tell everyone that we will be OK outside the EU or settle for an easy life and hedge your bets that we will stop in.
Mervyn King the ex BOE head does not agree with the remainers on the economy. He said
Former Bank of England Governor Lord King has said that the economic costs of Britain leaving the European Union have been "exaggerated", as he accused those on both sides of the forthcoming EU referendum debate of treating it like a "public relations campaign".

Strange what you are allowed to say if your job doesn't depend on it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...brexit-is-being-exaggerated-says-former-bank/

 

[Skinner]

I were talking to a Labour voting, Ushite Union Rep who is born and bred in scotland as I don't follow the scots politics (don't really follow any tbh), he says Sturgeon has no hope of attempting another indyref without the opinion polls showing at least 60% pro over many months. He also said there is no legal trigger or tie on the UK Ref to trigger a scots referendum. He also says that Sturgeon nor Salmond or anyone else had any clue how the currency would work without Scotland using the Pound (which sturgeon guaranteed scotland would NOT use the euro but would use the pound), but he thinks they would have to use it unilaterally which would mean scotland would need to buy like 20bn worth of currency AND run a surplus (thats apparently how it works), the only other way to use the pound would be for the UK to continue setting the scots budget. Unless they figure out a solve this, its not looking good.

Another friend who is an SNP Activist (not sure if thats the right word he does the door to thing and helps out etc) says basically in the UK leaves the EU and drags Scotland with it, Scotland would never vote to leave the UK without cast iron agreement to enter the EU or some major deals in place as a totally independent scotland isn't on the cards... which seems bizarre, I would have assumed thats the whole idea of Independent Scotland.

Seems UK breaking up is currently a none issue, even less in the event of brexit.

I may have misunderstood it, or asked the wrong questions as I said I don't follow politics much and certainly virtually no scots stuff.

On a side note, I'm curious how a trade deal with American wouldn't include another variation of TTIP exclusively for us, which would basically be a search and replace EU for UK.

Lastly (this may have been mentioned already) but it were pointed out a few days ago (business insider i think), that there is no legal trigger on this referendum, so in theory even if the country votes brexit the current government can essentially ignore it and choose to stay anyway or put it to the commons/lords to decide. Which kinda makes this whole sorry affair even more shit.

 

[gimpydog]

Lets call them Eastern European white people then

Can we not just call them "Polish", or "Poles"? That way nobody can take offence on their behalf & start shouting the 'R' word.

It is interesting that you think the migrating Poles are a good example of the EU project. Millions have left Poland (& Spain & Portugal & Greece etc.) to work in Germany or the UK. Their home countries suffer as a result, the unskilled Brits & Germans suffer from lower wages too, not to mention the rationing of public services.

Who wins? The businesses getting the cheap labour. The rich countries getting richer.

Meanwhile, the countries they left behind stagnate & have to live on handouts. In 20 yrs time, only the sick, the lame, the lazy & the wealthy elite will be left living there.

This is the result of the EU's policies in action....

The figures show unemployment rates after mass youth emigration. Why would you vote for that?

 

[gimpydog]

On a side note, I'm curious how a trade deal with American wouldn't include another variation of TTIP exclusively for us, which would basically be a search and replace EU for UK.

We don't have a trade deal with them at the moment & we dont have to have one in the future. If we did go down that route, it would be negotiated by Brits, 100% for Brits. Not 1/28th in our interest, as TTIP is at the moment.

How our trade deals currently work...

...there is no legal trigger on this referendum, so in theory even if the country votes brexit the current government can essentially ignore it and choose to stay anyway or put it to the commons/lords to decide.

I believe that to be true. Imagine if 'leave' win by one vote - the devious bastards would probably try to ignore the result. However, a decent majority & they ignore it at their peril.

 

[Avano Ltd]

Confused:
Should we make physical things?
Should we grow things?
Both we cannot compete on the world stage due to the cost of people.....mind you the robots will soon be here
So we have to be a skills based economy

you make what you want dougy baby, what I suggest is iRobot type production line, then we can actually achieve "physical things" and "grow things", I aim to please, you have not emailed via linkedin for at least a week about a new venture Doug?

 

[websaway]

It would need a big remain vote to stop any future problems. People who are genuinely concerned with free movement will desert the mainstream parties and look for alternatives.
I just wonder listening to Jeremy Corbyn if he does not consider this as pay back time to all the labour voters who deserted the left to elect Blair.
I don't think he forgives and forgets.

 

[websaway]

Another guy Steve Hilton ex advisor to the PM.
Strange how, like Mervyn King ex gov BOE , people who are not going to lose their jobs can say what they really think about Brexit.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/681252/Steve-Hilton-eu-referendum-peston-on-sunday