EU Referendum

[websaway]

How irresponsible is it of our prime minister to project that a post Brexit Britain would be like putting a bomb under the economy.
Anybody who knows how the financial world works knows the dangers to their currency and stock markets of bad news.
Yesterday in an interview with Andrew Marrs , the true economic effect of a Brexit, according to the views of the IFS, would be a shallow recession at most. How irresponsible is it to spook the markets with predictions of economic disaster. Or is the hidden agenda to do just that, meaning that a huge initial fall in currency and stocks would jolt the public into voting in, then in the event of an in vote they would recover very quickly.


This is how it went on the Andrew Marr show
David Cameron
If the pound falls then that
means the prices in our shops go up, it means the weekly shop
costs people more. It means that family holiday costs more.
Outside the single market the air fares will cost more. These are
all risks we should avoid. We shouldn’t risk it.


Andrew Marr: The challenge to you is that this is scaremongering. You’ve
been quoting the IFS in the papers all morning, let me read you
what the IFS says: ‘If we turned out to have a 20-40 billion pound
hit to the public finances that would be a much smaller hit than
the effect of the 2008 recession, it would be below the
downgrades to the forecasts made by the OBR between the
budgets in 2011 and 2013. We have coped with those. In fact –
they are the Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave the
recession will be the shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon.’

 

[martin-s]

Why is Germany's budget surplus "one of the Euro's biggest problems"?

Because it creates a huge imbalance between Eurozone economies.

Germany's economy benefits from artificially low interest rates and the low valuation of the currency as a benefit of being in the Euro.

Other countries suffer by having to borrow from Germany in a market where their struggle has already given Germany an advantage. It's an imbalance which gives Germany a lot of control over monetary policy.

If Germany had its own currency with a floating exchange rate, the surplus probably wouldn't exist. For the Euro to work correctly, it would need fiscal union where the German surplus is redistributed.

Which isn't going to happen.

Which creates resentment.

Want to read more? I'm resolutely not an "expert", so here's some links with better knowledge:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...or-germany-either-as-schubles-faux-pas-demon/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac187312-12cf-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fcb38e8-15f5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/24/germany-surplus-part-blame-eurozone-stagnation
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/defaul.../pdf/2013/bulletin_93_js_st_article2-8164.pdf

 

[websaway]

Because it creates a huge imbalance between Eurozone economies.

Germany's economy benefits from artificially low interest rates and the low valuation of the currency as a benefit of being in the Euro.

Other countries suffer by having to borrow from Germany in a market where their struggle has already given Germany an advantage. It's an imbalance which gives Germany a lot of control over monetary policy.

If Germany had its own currency with a floating exchange rate, the surplus probably wouldn't exist. For the Euro to work correctly, it would need fiscal union where the German surplus is redistributed.

Which isn't going to happen.

Which creates resentment.

Want to read more? I'm resolutely not an "expert", so here's some links with better knowledge:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...or-germany-either-as-schubles-faux-pas-demon/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac187312-12cf-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fcb38e8-15f5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/24/germany-surplus-part-blame-eurozone-stagnation
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/defaul.../pdf/2013/bulletin_93_js_st_article2-8164.pdf

There's always someone at the top in a pyramid scheme.

 

[websaway]

Anyone who wants to read word for word the Andrew Marr interview with the prime minister and I hope the prime minister himself has read it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/12061602.pdf

 

[bonusmedia]

Because it creates a huge imbalance between Eurozone economies.

Germany's economy benefits from artificially low interest rates and the low valuation of the currency as a benefit of being in the Euro.

Other countries suffer by having to borrow from Germany in a market where their struggle has already given Germany an advantage. It's an imbalance which gives Germany a lot of control over monetary policy.

If Germany had its own currency with a floating exchange rate, the surplus probably wouldn't exist. For the Euro to work correctly, it would need fiscal union where the German surplus is redistributed.

Which isn't going to happen.

Which creates resentment.

Want to read more? I'm resolutely not an "expert", so here's some links with better knowledge:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...or-germany-either-as-schubles-faux-pas-demon/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac187312-12cf-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fcb38e8-15f5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/24/germany-surplus-part-blame-eurozone-stagnation
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/defaul.../pdf/2013/bulletin_93_js_st_article2-8164.pdf

Interesting, thanks.

There's always someone at the top in a pyramid scheme.

Ying tong tiddle I po.

 

[gimpydog]

'Panicked' Remain camp plans to 'take out Boris' as opinion polls swing in Brexit campaign's favour

"the campaign to keep Britain in the EU now orchestrating a series of highly personal attacks on Boris Johnson"

and Gove & Farage too, no doubt.

 

[Edwin]

Thanks for the links, Martin!

They helped me figure out why I thought (wrongly) you might have been confused before. I'd seen other articles explaining why Germany's trade surplus was a bad thing. So actually both its budget surplus AND its trade surplus turn out to be "bad" (from a certain point of view - Germany wouldn't have the same view...)

 

[gimpydog]

"Migration Watch UK says the number of people in the UK will increase by at least a quarter of a million a year for the next 20 years resulting in "a massive impact on our population"."

http://news.sky.com/story/1711125/warning-over-net-migration-if-uk-stays-in-eu

 

[BeachLife]

Because it creates a huge imbalance between Eurozone economies.

Germany's economy benefits from artificially low interest rates and the low valuation of the currency as a benefit of being in the Euro.

Other countries suffer by having to borrow from Germany in a market where their struggle has already given Germany an advantage. It's an imbalance which gives Germany a lot of control over monetary policy.

If Germany had its own currency with a floating exchange rate, the surplus probably wouldn't exist. For the Euro to work correctly, it would need fiscal union where the German surplus is redistributed.

Which isn't going to happen.

Which creates resentment.

Want to read more? I'm resolutely not an "expert", so here's some links with better knowledge:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...or-germany-either-as-schubles-faux-pas-demon/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac187312-12cf-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fcb38e8-15f5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/24/germany-surplus-part-blame-eurozone-stagnation
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/defaul.../pdf/2013/bulletin_93_js_st_article2-8164.pdf

Thanks for the links, Martin!

They helped me figure out why I thought (wrongly) you might have been confused before. I'd seen other articles explaining why Germany's trade surplus was a bad thing. So actually both its budget surplus AND its trade surplus turn out to be "bad" (from a certain point of view - Germany wouldn't have the same view...)

Are these not all referring to Germany's Current Account Surplus, not their Budget Surplus? Two different things? And the balance of trade a third? Their Current Account Surplus and Trade Surplus bad for the Euro (and the EU). Help me out if I am wrong, it's been some time and a lot of beers since the LSE.

 

[Edwin]

Are these not all referring to Germany's Current Account Surplus, not their Budget Surplus? Two different things? And the balance of trade a third? Their Current Account Surplus and Trade Surplus bad for the Euro (and the EU). Help me out if I am wrong, it's been some time and a lot of beers since the LSE.

My original comment had been about Germany's budget surplus, and how it gives them a lot of "wriggle room" in their actions vis-a-vis the EU contributions (or anything else for that matter).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...get-for-first-time-in-more-than-40-years.html
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-budget

 

[Edwin]

I can see the potential for a huge backlash if we end up with a "Leave" result overall, but one achieved through a voting pattern that breaks down demographically very much in line with current projections.

Already, young people are feeling dispossessed, disenchanted and marginalised, with fewer prospects for house ownership, job security etc. And then (if the vote follows the demographic split in current polling) they see the older generations "snatching away the EU" from them, thus depressing their hopes still further.

Under those circumstances, it's quite easy to foresee there could be an underswell of support for the notion of removing the long-standing triple lock on pensions in favour of spreading the "economic pain" much more towards the older generations than has been the case during the current austerity drive.

Eventually, the government is going to have to hit pensioners, and probably hit them hard. It's inevitable, since the rapidly greying population is going to force their hand (people aren't going to "helpfully" suddenly start dying younger again just to balance the country's books!). So the referendum result may turn out to provide perfect "cover" to begin that process.

 

[websaway]

'Panicked' Remain camp plans to 'take out Boris' as opinion polls swing in Brexit campaign's favour

"the campaign to keep Britain in the EU now orchestrating a series of highly personal attacks on Boris Johnson"

and Gove & Farage too, no doubt.

I can see the potential for a huge backlash if we end up with a "Leave" result overall, but one achieved through a voting pattern that breaks down demographically very much in line with current projections.

Already, young people are feeling dispossessed, disenchanted and marginalised, with fewer prospects for house ownership, job security etc. And then (if the vote follows the demographic split in current polling) they see the older generations "snatching away the EU" from them, thus depressing their hopes still further.

Under those circumstances, it's quite easy to foresee there could be an underswell of support for the notion of removing the long-standing triple lock on pensions in favour of spreading the "economic pain" much more towards the older generations than has been the case during the current austerity drive.

Eventually, the government is going to have to hit pensioners, and probably hit them hard. It's inevitable, since the rapidly greying population is going to force their hand (people aren't going to "helpfully" suddenly start dying younger again just to balance the country's books!). So the referendum result may turn out to provide perfect "cover" to begin that process.

.

 

[gimpydog]

I can see the potential for a huge backlash...

Nice try, but all politicians know that pensioners vote & students just protest.

Policy follows the votes, not the volume

 

[AlistairM]

I'm beginning to think that everybody on the remain side are pessimists.

 

[gimpydog]

I'm beginning to think that everybody on the remain side are pessimists.

They can see which way the polls are going...

"David Cameron is taking a back seat in campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU, passing the baton to Labour’s big hitters to try and lure back working-class voters veering towards Brexit in a sign of mounting nervousness over the result"

"According to Betfair, odds now place a 64.5 per cent implied probability on a Remain win, which marks a near 14-point fall since last Thursday."

 

[Edwin]

Nice try, but all politicians know that pensioners vote & students just protest.

Policy follows the votes, not the volume

Nevertheless, even politicians can't beat the sheer inexorability of demographics. It may not be tomorrow, or even "soon", but at some point the then-government is going to be obliged to hit pensioners to make ends meet.

 

[Edwin]

Talk about scaremongering, here's Leave.eu's latest poster...

Wrong, on so many levels! Regardless of whether you're "remain", "leave" or still "undecided", I hope we can at least agree on that.

 

[VSC]

Nice try, but all politicians know that pensioners vote & students just protest.

Policy follows the votes, not the volume

Actually Students make up a sizeable part of the voting electorate ...
From the 2015 general elections, votes from areas with sizeable student populations ...
for example:


Plymouth Sutton & Devonport - 65.5% turnout of which 20.2% full time students.

Newcastle Under Lyme - 63.6% turnout of which 13.3% full time students.

Nottingham South - 63% turnout of which 34.5% students.

From the stats I've seen, lowest is 13.3%, highest 34.5% (as above) ... Even as an average looking at the mid 20's%.

Okay, not as high as % of over 55's that voted, but still ... many do vote.

 

[BREWSTERS]

& students just protest.

Well they used to...seem to have lost their pent up anger in recent years. Maybe it's the fluoride in the water - or they're getting too much sex?

 

[Edwin]

How much immigration is "enough"?

The Leave camp have been reaching out to those of Commonwealth descent by suggesting that post-brexit there could be room for more non-EU immigration because EU immigration will be limited. However, last year, there were already over 180,000 non-EU migrants.

So how can Leave promote more non-EU immigration (i.e. by definition, that figure of 180,000/year will go up) while simultaneously attacking Remain/the Tory party for not getting immigration down into the tens of thousands?

Those are two completely irreconcilable and contradictory positions, like saying "We're going to let you drive 150Mph rather than 130Mph, and how dare the Government not drop the speed limit to 50Mph!"

(Andrew Neil tried to tackle Nigel Farage on the above in his interview the other day, but N.F. huffed and puffed for about five minutes without actually saying anything until A.N. was forced to move onto another topic)