EU Referendum

[Edwin]

You only reply to the bits you want to

I reply to the bits that seem to be fact-based yet incorrect with sources or data that debunk those facts

As for anything that smacks of a personal attack, well it has no place in this thread (even Abba can be "weaponised"). It's simply unnecessary - play the topic, not the player!

 

[bonusmedia]

The EU budget increases every year, despite UK opposition. And that's before you bring the migration crisis into play.

But you're just continuing to play the same single card all the time.

Money, money, money.

Are you an ABBA fan?

Those most worried about immigration are those with the least experience of it - just look at the UKIP demographics.

If you mean the refugee crisis, leaving the EU does not mean we can wash our hands of those fleeing warzones.

Historically we were quite good at helping with that sort of issue - and countries that do have always been richer for it - literally

 

[Toonz]

I would say, without checking first, that, on that period, they are very accurate & I'll tell you why; they can see it coming & have a relatively small margin for error. Push the horizon out to fourteen days & they are completely buggered.

It's no great surprise that weather forecasts become less accurate the longer the time period they cover, but that's not the point. There are other professions in which the experts make predictions about the longer term future - not just 14 days but 14 months, with variable levels of probability. My broader point however is that, contrary to what the leave camp have been messaging for the past week, experts and their predictions shouldn't just be dismissed out of hand. We don't have to accept everything a self-proclaimed expert says without question, but neither should we automatically dismiss the widely respected organisations of experts, the predictions that they make and the utility of expertise itself, because however much or however little weight it carries, its more weight than non-experts carry. And because in the vast majority of cases, they aren't stating what will happen with 100% certainty - they are assessing risk. The sneering and casual dismissal of experts and elites and "intellectual know-it-alls" that we see from a growing number in politics and the media is populism pure and simple, designed to fool the person on the street by pandering to the ego. I feel that I'm repeating myself here so we may have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[Toonz]

What ever happened to Lord Rose, the chairman of the 'remain' campaign?

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Haven't seen him in weeks. I'm beginning to get worried

The guy was a total and utter disaster.

 

[Edwin]

Another snarky article that was reasonably amusing while still making some good points, especially about "experts" and "scaremongering". I particularly liked this bit...

“Scaremongering” is a word for the encouragement of fears that aren’t reasonable. But a lot of fears are reasonable. If I warn you not to jump into the lions’ enclosure at the zoo because the lions might eat you, you would be ill-advised to yell “Scaremonger!” as you scramble joyfully over the fence.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/jun/10/brexit-what-is-in-a-name

 

[Edwin]

I'm curious: do you see the "Leave" position as being somehow anti-establishment? It seems to have a bit of that sort of vibe. I ask because Boris Johnson went to Eton and Oxford, Michael Gove went to Oxford too, and Nigel Farage went to public school.

But perhaps I'm reading the tealeaves wrong...

 

[bonusmedia]

Enjoyed this bit about the latest Opinium/Observer Poll:

"It shows 46% of Tory voters backing staying in the EU against 43% who want to leave and 63% of Labour voters staying in against 28% who want to leave. The figures for Ukip are 93% and 5%. When undecided voters were “nudged” to say which side they were leaning towards 38% said they were leaning to Remain and 26% to Leave."

So 1 in 20 UKIP voters is voting Remain. There's hope yet

 

[Edwin]

A long read, but thought-provoking (and gloomy with it): "Why I've changed my mind on Brexit"
https://opendemocracy.net/uk/aaron-bastani/why-ive-changed-my-mind-on-brexit

 

[Toonz]

1 in 20 UKIP voters is voting Remain.

I still struggle to get my head round that!

 

[Toonz]

I'm curious: do you see the "Leave" position as being somehow anti-establishment? It seems to have a bit of that sort of vibe. I ask because Boris Johnson went to Eton and Oxford, Michael Gove went to Oxford too, and Nigel Farage went to public school.

Leave is definitely the maverick option but the fact that it's being championed by so many establishment types is what makes it interesting. (I'm still waiting for the V for Vendetta masks. )

 

[Mark84]

A long read, but thought-provoking (and gloomy with it): "Why I've changed my mind on Brexit"
https://opendemocracy.net/uk/aaron-bastani/why-ive-changed-my-mind-on-brexit

The guy is a fecking idiot of the highest order, first of all he's saying that if we leave the EU that involves us leaving the EEA - does it? That's the first I have heard of that. Hopefully he knows the difference between the EEA and the EU.

He's arguing against democracy because he doesn't like the right wing in the UK. Well that's just tough isn't it, that's how democracy works. Sometimes people out vote you, and sometimes you get your way. Man the hell up and live with it.

Now I wasn't aware but it wasn't challeneged by the remain side during the debates but the EU, is reported to have a 2/3rd's right leaning parliament, 2/3 of the commissioners are right leaning apparently. They must be peeing themselves laughing, give the left what they want for a few years, get them to cut down their own democratic protections because they think they are getting what they want and then BANG - the EU goes all right wing and takes them out.

Where is your holiday pay then? Where is your maternity pay?

Don't come crying to me when you lot on the left get rear ended by this thing in a few years - oh wait it's already happening with something called TTIP. The most right wing policy ever.

Left wing polices from the EU are like a introductory offer on your credit card, sign you up and then hit you with the interest. Just some people are too dumb to see the trap that they are walking into. Then when they don't get what they want they sit there moaning about a lack of democracy that they themselves signed up to give away.

 

[newguy]

The guy is a fecking idiot of the highest order, first of all he's saying that if we leave the EU that involves us leaving the EEA - does it? That's the first I have heard of that. Hopefully he knows the difference between the EEA and the EU.

Without leaving the EEA, we'd be bound by a whole host of regulations that those voting for brexit want to get away from - including free movement, one of the main reasons people are voting for brexit to begin with.

Though we don't need to leave the EEA anyway. We are currently only in the EEA through virtue of being part of the EU so the guy is right, if we leave the EU we will have to apply to join the EEA (through the European Free Trade Organisation) needing every single member of the EU to agree to us to do so. Norway is an EEA member without being in the EU, they abide by fewer regulations but still the "Four Freedoms": the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital.

The exception is Switzerland who are in the EFTA but didn't join the EEA. They are essentially a special exception because:

""From the perspective of the EU, the treaties largely contain the same content as the EEA treaties, making Switzerland a virtual member of the EEA. Most EU law applies universally throughout the EU, the EEA and Switzerland, providing most of the conditions of the free movement of people, goods, services and capital that apply to full member states. Switzerland pays into the EU budget and extended the bilateral treaties to the new EU member states, just like full members did, although each extension requires the approval of Swiss voters in a referendum." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations

So whether in or out we will pay significant amounts to the EU (Norway are in the EEA but not EU and pays almost as much as we do per capita). If we 'leave' we will have no say in regulations that we have to adhere to if we wish to deal with EU countries - granted they will have no say in ours either but we are one country and they are a block, so we'll suffer more if trade terms are bad and so on. If we are frozen out of the EEA - something suggested by the german government on account that we're leaving the EU rather than seeking to form a close/closer union + as an example to put other countries off leaving - we'd likely not be given special treatment like Switzerland.

Germany has gone 'all in' with the EU and 'may' believe the EU has less to lose by making life more difficult for us, than in creating a 'look how great life is outside of the EU' scenario. If Scotland had left the UK and said "Can we have a good deal after please?" we'd laugh. We have more might and muscle as a country and would have to hope that held some sway. Outside of the EU and EEA we would then be limited to free trade with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. In that situation we wouldn't have to follow the 'four freedoms' though it would impact our economy of course in being excluded from the EEA, lots of tarrifs and so on. It all depends how people feel about that balance.

Logically, being that getting out of 'free movement of people' is number one on the list of brexiter concerns, that is the prefered option I assume. Some European countries are just as eager to ensure that this is the road we take if we leave. If as a country people really can't bare to live with the current immigration numbers, or a closer EU, or sees the EU as being on a collision course with an iceburg at some point, then I can understand why a Leave vote would win. Maybe we can carve out a niche of our own, or get a good arrangement with EU countries even though it would be counter to their vision of keeping the EU together. Leave or stay, I don't know what will happen, I really don't and nor does anyone else. That's the problem. It may even be that the EU comes back to us post-vote with significant concessions confusing matters further.

One thought I had is "i'd be nice to leave second instead of first". In that scenario you get a clear view of whether the grass is greener on the other side and of consequences. That thought must be equally in the minds of those who are as passionate about keeping the EU together at any cost. As result, maybe we'll have to put up with a few years of the economy going off the rails and things being tougher for everyone. Of course if the EU does collapse somewhere down the line, a decision to leave could be seen in quite a brave light. My ideal is for power to be very local, more regional even than national, so I'm no super fan of an ever closer EU by any means, but it's nice if people know what they are getting into or out of rather than the remain and leave campaigns, who are both just mud slinging at this point.

 

[Edwin]

The guy is a fecking idiot of the highest order, first of all he's saying that if we leave the EU that involves us leaving the EEA - does it? That's the first I have heard of that. Hopefully he knows the difference between the EEA and the EU.

newguy responded to this effectively.

I'll just add: there has been so much relatively glib talk from the Leave camp about the various trade "models" that the UK could adopt post-Brext that it's not clear if people understand that the current EU arrangement isn't like an onion. You can't peel off layers of agreement until you get to the one you want, then stop. There's one layer (the EU) and nothing below that.

If the UK leaves the EU then it defaults to WTO rules, with membership of zero trade areas. No more free movement of people, but no more free trade in goods or services either. No ifs, no buts, that's what will happen as a baseline. There are two years in which to negotiate something better, but there is no guarantee of getting anything more than WTO.

These various trading models and memberships are not like a box of chocolates either - we don't get to dip into to pick which one we like. Every other alternative (beyond WTO) will have to be negotiated for, and will only be possible with agreement secured from ALL parties.

So for example EEA membership would have to be negotiated from scratch. At present, membership of the EEA requires the free movement of people (just like membership of the EU). So unless a special exception was made for the UK, EEA membership outside the EU would give no more or less "control" over the UK's borders than there is now. There is no indication whatsoever that such a "special exception" would be forthcoming.

 

[websaway]

The EU budget increases every year, despite UK opposition. And that's before you bring the migration crisis into play.

But you're just continuing to play the same single card all the time.

Money, money, money.

Are you an ABBA fan?

Yes he will not get involved with the questions that are equally pertinent to the argument. He chose not to come back on The Bill Cash article in the DM yesterday. Blissful ignorance.

 

[martin-s]

I reply to the bits that seem to be fact-based yet incorrect with sources or data that debunk those facts

As for anything that smacks of a personal attack, well it has no place in this thread (even Abba can be "weaponised"). It's simply unnecessary - play the topic, not the player!

Abba was a low blow, but to be fair, you were/are ignoring everything but the money angle.

It feels a bit like trying to debate Cameron on TV. Every answer he gives is the same, "because the economy."

If you want to talk about the money angle, go for it. Let's assume that Brexit happens and the EU loses the 12% of its budget that comes from us. And let's say that no trade agreements are agreed because unlimited migration is a red line we won't cross during negotiations.

Now 12% of a relatively small €155 billion may not seem like much. But in this scenario, the other EU countries (which by now are going through their own political instability because the EU is starting to come apart at the seams) have to find more money for the EU - and to do that while managing their own GDP falls (that massive problem for the UK you're so concerned about).

Likely the Euro is coming under pressure again, because Greece are still in real financial difficulty. Germany are still refusing to offer any debt relief, and their position has hardened because now they're on hook for a big share of the share the UK used to pay, and also because their motor industry is struggling to compete in one of its major markets due to tariffs.

What now? How does the EU manage to fill its budget hole? How does Germany? What happens to Greece? And the Euro?

And that's why the idea of failing to agree trade deals is complete nonsense. The stakes are too high. The other EU countries need trade as much as we do.

Isn't changing freedom of movement rules for the UK a small price to pay?

 

[websaway]

Now Cameron is attacking the largest sector of his opponents. The elderly, threatening to dilute the state pension. Well if he thought saying house prices would fall ( leading to more opportunity for first time buyers and lower rents ) would do the trick, he might just get another shock here. The elderly put him in power on pensions guarantees, he didn't say at the time it was only if they vote to stay in the undemocratic EU. I think the remains are so desperate now they will try anything.

 

[Edwin]

Sorry, am rushing out the door so this is necessarily short, but the rest of the EU only have to make up the difference between what the UK contributes and what it gets back out again in rebates, grants etc. because the UK won't get anything from the EU post-Brexit.

So the EU budget shortfall won't be 12% but a whole lot less.

 

[Edwin]

Sorry, am rushing out the door so this is necessarily short, but the rest of the EU only have to make up the difference between what the UK contributes and what it gets back out again in rebates, grants etc. because the UK won't get anything from the EU post-Brexit.

So the EU budget shortfall won't be 12% but a whole lot less.

Oh, and the UK has a $170 billion budget deficit (difference between govt income and what it spends.) Germany has a $25 billion surplus. There's slack there for it to pick up the UK's net EU contributions alone if it had to (though it would be politically sticky) without going into the red!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_budgets_by_country

Our giant deficit is also the reason why even relatively small downturns turn into fullblown recessions.

 

[Edwin]

And that's one of the main reasons for Germany's unemployment rate barely being affected by the 2008 global financial meltdown.

https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata...:uk&ifdim=country_group&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false

 

[websaway]

Now Cameron is attacking the largest sector of his opponents. The elderly, threatening to dilute the state pension. Well if he thought saying house prices would fall ( leading to more opportunity for first time buyers and lower rents ) would do the trick, he might just get another shock here. The old put him in power on pensions guarantees, he didn't say at the time it was only if they vote to stay in the undemocratic EU. I think the remains are so desperate now they will try anything.