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EU Referendum

Acorn EU Poll

  • Remain

    Votes: 28 30.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 57 61.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 8 8.6%

  • Total voters
    93
  • Poll closed .
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Hmm. So, should we listen to the guy who employs 100+ people and is one of the largest customers in the domain resale market - or the guy who sticks his fingers in his ears and says "Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner"?

No you should not listen to me, you should listen to the experts with the facts. What difference does it make how many staff I have or what I do in the domain market place.....

I never mentioned who I was or what I did, I posted as an active member of community that I have been a member of for 12 years as the thread had been going on for 85 pages and I thought everyone had probably said their bit so I should have mine. One mention of something that was not with your liking and all of a sudden it became personal and I have my own personal agenda's.....
 
No you should not listen to me, you should listen to the experts with the facts. What difference does it make how many staff I have or what I do in the domain market place.....

I never mentioned who I was or what I did, I posted as an active member of community that I have been a member of for 12 years as the thread had been going on for 85 pages and I thought everyone had probably said their bit so I should have mine. One mention of something that was not with your liking and all of a sudden it became personal and I have my own personal agenda's.....

Actually I was defending your comment against websaway's off-hand dismissal. But yes of course your job is irrelevant and I shouldn't have brought it up. What I said afterwards stands - it's infuriating to see reasoned arguments dismissed by people shouting nonsense
 
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I think Edwyn sums it up very well...the only thing that matters is the economy. Strong economy and you can do lots with the NHS, education, etc etc etc....weak economy and buy some candles for winter....we atleast will be able to hold the candles ourself, but we may have to buy them from someone we don't like.

Almost every economist, or expert, globally says it will be a bad idea for 5 years...after that who knows in anything anyway. A wise man I once read said:

90% your life be very stable and boring
10% do loads of high risk bets - this really creates the chance of something great happening, but if it all goes wrong it is not that bad.

Leaving the EU seems to be lets do 100% of instability
 
Actually I was defending your comment against websaway's off-hand dismissal. But yes of course your job is irrelevant and I shouldn't have brought it up. What I said afterwards stands - it's infuriating to see reasoned arguments dismissed by people shouting nonsense

No hassle:):)
 
I think Edwyn sums it up very well...the only thing that matters is the economy. Strong economy and you can do lots with the NHS, education, etc etc etc....weak economy and buy some candles for winter....we atleast will be able to hold the candles ourself, but we may have to buy them from someone we don't like.

Almost every economist, or expert, globally says it will be a bad idea for 5 years...after that who knows in anything anyway. A wise man I once read said:

90% your life be very stable and boring
10% do loads of high risk bets - this really creates the chance of something great happening, but if it all goes wrong it is not that bad.

Leaving the EU seems to be lets do 100% of instability
I appreciate you are not trying to change others views and this is your position. But
Strong economy,...yes you can do lot's with the NHs, education, not sure what the etc, etc,etc. is but it can't be immigration and sovereignty. This is not a general election, if it was I would support your view 100%. It's a referendum and more than the economy for most people is a consideration.
 
The 2008 global financial crash comparison is a red herring. Much of that came about because many of the smartest financial experts in the world created deliberately complicated financial instruments designed to conceal their flaws. Then they bundled them up into even more complex products, wash, rinse, repeat, until there were only a handful of people in the world who could understand them. And the parties trading them went to extraordinary lengths to keep their positions opaque. Bankers made billions going into the collapse off these stupendously convoluted derivatives.

The referendum on the other hand is a highly transparent event with a precise timetable. It's a "known known". We know the exact day it will happen, and the two outcomes (there are only two). We also know the current and historic trade situations of all interested parties, the exact costs of the UK membership, the laws and rules and agreements and deals that exist now and that would no longer apply at Brexit, etc. etc. An ocean of precise, detailed data that is a forecaster's dream!

It's the difference between a terrorist attack and a dinosaur-killer asteroid strike. The former is planned and organised in the shadows, with maximum deception and subterfuge, and strikes without warning unless the security services manage to intercept chatter.

The latter would be predictable months or years in advance once it's first detected (= once the referendum's called) and the impact location and likely devastation will be easily computed from orbital mechanics, velocities, masses and other ascertainable data.

And that is what has the overwhelming majority of experts jittery. They've seen the asteroid, understand the catastrophic consequences of its impact and the exact date it will do so, and they also know we have one - and only one - chance to avoid it.

That sounds a little like what was being said when we had two choices to either join the Euro Zone or be isolated. It wasn't as dramatic as your spin on it , but similar in it's prediction.
Read what Bill Cash in the mail said today and let's hear your comments on those issues, rather than keep banging on about the subjective economics. I will read that with interest.
 
Gimpy, you say weather forecasts are often wrong. That's a nice imprecise word that - "often". Let's cut to the chase. Are meteorological forecasts, let's say for 48 hours from now, more often right, or more often wrong?
I would say, without checking first, that, on that period, they are very accurate & I'll tell you why;
they can see it coming & have a relatively small margin for error.

Push the horizon out to fourteen days & they are completely buggered.

(I would recommend you read this Met Office link on accuracy rates, but presumably you'd accuse them of being self-interested and me of trawling Google :rolleyes: so here's one on weather verification where you can compare the forecasts they made to the actual weather and temperature.)
Read my words again. I wasn't accusing them, or you, of anything. ;)
 
What ever happened to Lord Rose, the chairman of the 'remain' campaign?

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Haven't seen him in weeks. I'm beginning to get worried :confused:
 
From a government's point of view, everything starts from the economy. It has to. This may seem distasteful or uncaring, but it reflects the real world because the economy pays for the NHS. It pays for housing. It pays for benefits. It pays for absolutely everything the government spends money on.

That's why the economic argument isn't just "another thing". It's THE thing, when it comes to what the government will or will not be able to do for workers, the unemployed, farmers, hospitals, pensioners, business owners, etc. If Brexit tanks the economy, you can wave goodbye to any more money for the NHS, for compensating farmers for the loss of their EU subsidies, for support for businesses facing increased tariffs, for anything at all. That so-called "£10 billion surplus" would be gone in the blink of an eye if GDP drops even a hair.

So it's fine to argue (as Nigel Farage has) "Quality of life is more important than GDP." (though it's probably not a good idea to laugh about it like he seems to) But it's absolutely not ok to ignore the negative consequences of that statement as well as the positive, or duck the thorny issue of the economic impact entirely!

If you are saying "I categorically don't care if Brexit hurts the economy, having thought through exactly what that would entail carefully, because X, Y or Z", then fine. That reasoning, made with eyes wide open and full knowledge, is completely legitimate. It's a "position". It shows what you value, what you place the most importance on. And what you therefore base your decision on. Just realise that X, Y or Z other issue won't save the economy.

But if you are saying "Brexit absolutely won't hurt the economy because of bogus 'reason' I just plucked out of thin air." Well, then, that's not fine at all. That's irresponsible in the extreme. That's gambling with everyone's future to chase unicorns.

It is also worth remembering at all times that a government has a much, much higher obligation than any individual citizen. It simply can't stop paying for hospitals, schools, road repairs, benefits, pensions, etc. etc. etc. And so it has to seek to protect the economic position of the country.

Individuals, on the other hand, have comparative luxury: you can take a pay cut or change your lifestyle ("live within your means") if you value other things more than mere money. But a country is like a nest of baby birds, always chirping, always hungry. Those beaks are opening and shutting, gulping down every penny you can find, and it's never, ever enough.

So it's important to understand WHY the government bangs the economy drum until its hands bleed. It's because if the economy fails, everything the government has to and wants to do risks failing too.

Take a moment to check just how little GDP had to drop by to throw us into the last few recessions. It's a tiny amount, a couple of % or so, yet it's the difference between boom times and millions on the dole. Why? Because of those chirping birds: everything the government can get its hands on is already spent, is needed somewhere. There is practically no slack in the system at all (this isn't exclusive to the UK). So what may at face value seem a "tiny" change in percentage terms has diabolic knock-on consequences.

Again, that's a huge difference between a country and a person. Most people are fortunate enough (not all, granted) to be able to ride out a drop of a couple of % in their income. Many wouldn't even notice it, in practical terms. But for a country, that's the bugle call signalling the start of the next recession.

From a governments point of view , everything starts with the people.

You are overplaying the lay it on thick card but look, If as you say leaving the EU is such a devastating idea, why did Cameron say last year that he would leave if he did not get reform, if as you say leaving is simply inconceivable, why did the prime minister say he would leave ?
 
I have hired many expert lawyers...they may work for either side, but when they have a choice they generally pick the side that makes sense:)

I think you misunderstood my point, but no matter.
 
I appreciate you are not trying to change others views and this is your position. But
Strong economy,...yes you can do lot's with the NHs, education, not sure what the etc, etc,etc. is but it can't be immigration and sovereignty. This is not a general election, if it was I would support your view 100%. It's a referendum and more than the economy for most people is a consideration.

I know it is, but the economy drives everything ...like it or not
 
You are overplaying the lay it on thick card but look, If as you say leaving the EU is such a devastating idea, why did Cameron say last year that he would leave if he did not get reform, if as you say leaving is simply inconceivable, why did the prime minister say he would leave ?

But he did get reform since then! A number of reforms. Some will activate automatically as soon as a "Remain" vote is declared, others will be ratified in the weeks and months afterwards. You may not believe the reforms he obtained were "sufficient", but it is incorrect to say that he didn't get them.

Here's the timeline...

November 2015 (and earlier): Cameron makes a threat in the run-up to a protracted negotiation that he might possibly join the "Leave" camp unless he secured reforms from the EU (if you look at what he said back then, you'll see it was relatively nuanced and fit easily into what one might consider the "opening salvo" of a negotiation process)
Between November 2015 and February 2016: Negotiations with the EU aimed at securing a range of reforms
19 February 2016: the EU agree a number of reforms http://docs.dpaq.de/10395-0216-euco-conclusions.pdf that Cameron feel are sufficient to keep him in the "Remain" camp.

His behaviour has been entirely logical and consistent. He set out his position pre-negotiation, warned what might happen if he didn't get what he wanted, got (most of) what he was after, and moderated his new position accordingly based on what he'd already said he'd do.
 
But he did get reform since then! A number of reforms. Some will activate automatically as soon as a "Remain" vote is declared, others will be ratified in the weeks and months afterwards. You may not believe the reforms he obtained were "sufficient", but it is incorrect to say that he didn't get them.

Here's the timeline...

November 2015 (and earlier): Cameron makes a threat in the run-up to a protracted negotiation that he might possibly join the "Leave" camp unless he secured reforms from the EU (if you look at what he said back then, you'll see it was relatively nuanced and fit easily into what one might consider the "opening salvo" of a negotiation process)
Between November 2015 and February 2016: Negotiations with the EU aimed at securing a range of reforms
19 February 2016: the EU agree a number of reforms http://docs.dpaq.de/10395-0216-euco-conclusions.pdf that Cameron feel are sufficient to keep him in the "Remain" camp.

His behaviour has been entirely logical and consistent. He set out his position pre-negotiation, warned what might happen if he didn't get what he wanted, got (most of) what he was after, and moderated his new position accordingly based on what he'd already said he'd do.
So say if he had not got reform ? How could he possibly even court the position of leaving if the consequences will be as severe as you predict.
 
A different group of "independent economists"/"vested interests" (delete to fit your own prejudices) issued their Brexit prediction today.

Sterling could fall by 30% and the stock market by 20% if the UK should leave the European Union, according to a stark assessment from an award-winning team of independent economic analysts.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/eu-vote-remain-leave-sterling-markets

And this in-depth interview with Cameron is worth a read. A flavour...
One way or another, David Cameron will soon be a history man. In 12 days’ time, he will have pulled off his great gamble, prevailed in one of the most significant – and vicious – political contests in the life of this nation and won the referendum, or Britain’s membership of the European Union will be toast and he with it, leaving future historians to debate why a previously skilled and supple leader made such a catastrophic mistake.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ron-brexit-eu-referendum-listen-jeremy-corbyn
 
Let them eat cake.

FYI, I'm not going to be trying to counter your posts anymore - it's just too numbingly exhausting. I'll still be participating in this thread. I hope we can still keep things civil.
 
But he did get reform since then! A number of reforms. Some will activate automatically as soon as a "Remain" vote is declared, others will be ratified in the weeks and months afterwards. You may not believe the reforms he obtained were "sufficient", but it is incorrect to say that he didn't get them.

Here's the timeline...

November 2015 (and earlier): Cameron makes a threat in the run-up to a protracted negotiation that he might possibly join the "Leave" camp unless he secured reforms from the EU (if you look at what he said back then, you'll see it was relatively nuanced and fit easily into what one might consider the "opening salvo" of a negotiation process)
Between November 2015 and February 2016: Negotiations with the EU aimed at securing a range of reforms
19 February 2016: the EU agree a number of reforms http://docs.dpaq.de/10395-0216-euco-conclusions.pdf that Cameron feel are sufficient to keep him in the "Remain" camp.

His behaviour has been entirely logical and consistent. He set out his position pre-negotiation, warned what might happen if he didn't get what he wanted, got (most of) what he was after, and moderated his new position accordingly based on what he'd already said he'd do.

This is your spin on it, and if it were anywhere near accurate it would appear that he should have told the country that it was bluff because he seems to have shot himself in the foot, as most people think when he said the UK could cope quite well outside the EU he meant it, as you would when the prime minister ( an expert ) speaks.
 
FYI, I'm not going to be trying to counter your posts anymore - it's just too numbingly exhausting. I'll still be participating in this thread. I hope we can still keep things civil.
No problem Edwin I assume it's checkmate.
 
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