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EU Referendum

Acorn EU Poll

  • Remain

    Votes: 28 30.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 57 61.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 8 8.6%

  • Total voters
    93
  • Poll closed .
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From a government's point of view, everything starts from the economy. It has to. This may seem distasteful or uncaring, but it reflects the real world because the economy pays for the NHS. It pays for housing. It pays for benefits. It pays for absolutely everything the government spends money on.

That's why the economic argument isn't just "another thing". It's THE thing, when it comes to what the government will or will not be able to do for workers, the unemployed, farmers, hospitals, pensioners, business owners, etc. If Brexit tanks the economy, you can wave goodbye to any more money for the NHS, for compensating farmers for the loss of their EU subsidies, for support for businesses facing increased tariffs, for anything at all. That so-called "£10 billion surplus" would be gone in the blink of an eye if GDP drops even a hair.

So it's fine to argue (as Nigel Farage has) "Quality of life is more important than GDP." (though it's probably not a good idea to laugh about it like he seems to) But it's absolutely not ok to ignore the negative consequences of that statement as well as the positive, or duck the thorny issue of the economic impact entirely!

If you are saying "I categorically don't care if Brexit hurts the economy, having thought through exactly what that would entail carefully, because X, Y or Z", then fine. That reasoning, made with eyes wide open and full knowledge, is completely legitimate. It's a "position". It shows what you value, what you place the most importance on. And what you therefore base your decision on. Just realise that X, Y or Z other issue won't save the economy.

But if you are saying "Brexit absolutely won't hurt the economy because of bogus 'reason' I just plucked out of thin air." Well, then, that's not fine at all. That's irresponsible in the extreme. That's gambling with everyone's future to chase unicorns.

It is also worth remembering at all times that a government has a much, much higher obligation than any individual citizen. It simply can't stop paying for hospitals, schools, road repairs, benefits, pensions, etc. etc. etc. And so it has to seek to protect the economic position of the country.

Individuals, on the other hand, have comparative luxury: you can take a pay cut or change your lifestyle ("live within your means") if you value other things more than mere money. But a country is like a nest of baby birds, always chirping, always hungry. Those beaks are opening and shutting, gulping down every penny you can find, and it's never, ever enough.

So it's important to understand WHY the government bangs the economy drum until its hands bleed. It's because if the economy fails, everything the government has to and wants to do risks failing too.

Take a moment to check just how little GDP had to drop by to throw us into the last few recessions. It's a tiny amount, a couple of % or so, yet it's the difference between boom times and millions on the dole. Why? Because of those chirping birds: everything the government can get its hands on is already spent, is needed somewhere. There is practically no slack in the system at all (this isn't exclusive to the UK). So what may at face value seem a "tiny" change in percentage terms has diabolic knock-on consequences.

Again, that's a huge difference between a country and a person. Most people are fortunate enough (not all, granted) to be able to ride out a drop of a couple of % in their income. Many wouldn't even notice it, in practical terms. But for a country, that's the bugle call signalling the start of the next recession.
 
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That's why the economic argument isn't just "another thing". It's THE thing

It's THE thing to you, but to some of us THE thing is something else: sovereignty.

And the reason the Gov't bangs that drum, is it's pretty much the only angle Remain has going for it.
 
It's THE thing to you, but to some of us THE thing is something else: sovereignty.

And the reason the Gov't bangs that drum, is it's pretty much the only angle Remain has going for it.

It's THE thing to the government. And I explained very clearly why it has to be. It looks like you didn't actually read my post.
 
What have these experts actually said on the economy? I haven't really looked into it because I know I'm voting out whatever, but when Cameron spouts on about how catastrophic it will be to the economy etc and all these experts agree, have these experts all actually said along the same lines? I ask because I agree that the economy is likely to take a bit of a hit when we leave the EU at first, but if I was an expert that doesn't mean I'd want my name added on the list, as though I agree with what Cameron says about it because I don't. But I wonder if that's what they're doing.
 
What have these experts actually said on the economy? I haven't really looked into it because I know I'm voting out whatever, but when Cameron spouts on about how catastrophic it will be to the economy etc and all these experts agree, have these experts all actually said along the same lines? I ask because I agree that the economy is likely to take a bit of a hit when we leave the EU at first, but if I was an expert that doesn't mean I'd want my name added on the list, as though I agree with what Cameron says about it because I don't. But I wonder if that's what they're doing.

Here's the original source (Ipsos Mori are the organisation that carried out the research)
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3739/Economists-Views-on-Brexit.aspx

The "9 out of 10 economists" you often hear/see quoted is a very gentle rounding up from 88%, which is the percentage that thought Brexit would harm the UK's economy in the next 5 years. There's a ton more detail at the above link.

It was apparently the largest survey of its type ever carried out in the UK, with 639 respondents.
 
This would be a lot funnier if it wasn't so desperately sad. Anti-intellectualism is an extremely worrying trend for anyone who values, um... civilization

Absolutely. And just to show how less civilised that we are compared to most in Europe you only have to look at our football fans' behaviour in Marseilles today - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36506917. Maybe we can balance up the perceived immigation problem by exporting some of these idiots.
 
This would be a lot funnier if it wasn't so desperately sad. Anti-intellectualism is an extremely worrying trend for anyone who values, um... civilization

It's a global disease - just look at Trump in the US.
 
He who pays the piper still calls the tune. Ever hired an expert lawyer. He can work for either side and still win.

I have hired many expert lawyers...they may work for either side, but when they have a choice they generally pick the side that makes sense:)
 
With respect, there's no more reason to listen to Dougs than anyone else on here. I couldn't give a crap whether he employs 100 people or not! If anything, employment is one of the obvious areas which would introduce bias to his personal motivation and decision.

Being successful is great, but sometimes the more honest and intelligent thinking comes from people with less to lose.

I don't give a crap either but as this article has gone on for 85 pages and I am an active part of the community maybe I should say something....as almost everyone else has had their say:)

I have no personal bias believe it or not......in or out people who create things always make money:). In times of confusion is the times of more opportunities:)

The people who have all the facts are the ones where the intelligent thinking comes...sadly this EU decision will not be made by that, but will be made based on FEAR and who can stoke it up and resonate with the masses the best...both sides are doing this. Which ever way that is not the right way to win and create a great future.
 
Hmm. So, should we listen to the guy who employs 100+ people and is one of the largest customers in the domain resale market - or the guy who sticks his fingers in his ears and says "Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner"?

No you should not listen to me, you should listen to the experts with the facts. What difference does it make how many staff I have or what I do in the domain market place.....

I never mentioned who I was or what I did, I posted as an active member of community that I have been a member of for 12 years as the thread had been going on for 85 pages and I thought everyone had probably said their bit so I should have mine. One mention of something that was not with your liking and all of a sudden it became personal and I have my own personal agenda's.....
 
No you should not listen to me, you should listen to the experts with the facts. What difference does it make how many staff I have or what I do in the domain market place.....

I never mentioned who I was or what I did, I posted as an active member of community that I have been a member of for 12 years as the thread had been going on for 85 pages and I thought everyone had probably said their bit so I should have mine. One mention of something that was not with your liking and all of a sudden it became personal and I have my own personal agenda's.....

Actually I was defending your comment against websaway's off-hand dismissal. But yes of course your job is irrelevant and I shouldn't have brought it up. What I said afterwards stands - it's infuriating to see reasoned arguments dismissed by people shouting nonsense
 
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I think Edwyn sums it up very well...the only thing that matters is the economy. Strong economy and you can do lots with the NHS, education, etc etc etc....weak economy and buy some candles for winter....we atleast will be able to hold the candles ourself, but we may have to buy them from someone we don't like.

Almost every economist, or expert, globally says it will be a bad idea for 5 years...after that who knows in anything anyway. A wise man I once read said:

90% your life be very stable and boring
10% do loads of high risk bets - this really creates the chance of something great happening, but if it all goes wrong it is not that bad.

Leaving the EU seems to be lets do 100% of instability
 
Actually I was defending your comment against websaway's off-hand dismissal. But yes of course your job is irrelevant and I shouldn't have brought it up. What I said afterwards stands - it's infuriating to see reasoned arguments dismissed by people shouting nonsense

No hassle:):)
 
I think Edwyn sums it up very well...the only thing that matters is the economy. Strong economy and you can do lots with the NHS, education, etc etc etc....weak economy and buy some candles for winter....we atleast will be able to hold the candles ourself, but we may have to buy them from someone we don't like.

Almost every economist, or expert, globally says it will be a bad idea for 5 years...after that who knows in anything anyway. A wise man I once read said:

90% your life be very stable and boring
10% do loads of high risk bets - this really creates the chance of something great happening, but if it all goes wrong it is not that bad.

Leaving the EU seems to be lets do 100% of instability
I appreciate you are not trying to change others views and this is your position. But
Strong economy,...yes you can do lot's with the NHs, education, not sure what the etc, etc,etc. is but it can't be immigration and sovereignty. This is not a general election, if it was I would support your view 100%. It's a referendum and more than the economy for most people is a consideration.
 
The 2008 global financial crash comparison is a red herring. Much of that came about because many of the smartest financial experts in the world created deliberately complicated financial instruments designed to conceal their flaws. Then they bundled them up into even more complex products, wash, rinse, repeat, until there were only a handful of people in the world who could understand them. And the parties trading them went to extraordinary lengths to keep their positions opaque. Bankers made billions going into the collapse off these stupendously convoluted derivatives.

The referendum on the other hand is a highly transparent event with a precise timetable. It's a "known known". We know the exact day it will happen, and the two outcomes (there are only two). We also know the current and historic trade situations of all interested parties, the exact costs of the UK membership, the laws and rules and agreements and deals that exist now and that would no longer apply at Brexit, etc. etc. An ocean of precise, detailed data that is a forecaster's dream!

It's the difference between a terrorist attack and a dinosaur-killer asteroid strike. The former is planned and organised in the shadows, with maximum deception and subterfuge, and strikes without warning unless the security services manage to intercept chatter.

The latter would be predictable months or years in advance once it's first detected (= once the referendum's called) and the impact location and likely devastation will be easily computed from orbital mechanics, velocities, masses and other ascertainable data.

And that is what has the overwhelming majority of experts jittery. They've seen the asteroid, understand the catastrophic consequences of its impact and the exact date it will do so, and they also know we have one - and only one - chance to avoid it.

That sounds a little like what was being said when we had two choices to either join the Euro Zone or be isolated. It wasn't as dramatic as your spin on it , but similar in it's prediction.
Read what Bill Cash in the mail said today and let's hear your comments on those issues, rather than keep banging on about the subjective economics. I will read that with interest.
 
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