EU Referendum

[Toonz]

Despite the common grumble, meteorologists ("experts" in the weather) can and do make weather forecasts that have a good probability of accuracy. That's the point.

Just as epidemiologists ("experts" in the spread of disease) can and do make predictions about outbreaks that have a high probability of accuracy.

Just as doctors ("experts" in a field of medicine) can and do offer realistic prognoses.

The fact that meteorologists and epidemiologists - and economists - can be wrong doesn't change the fact that there remains a significant difference between the expert and the non-expert when it comes to having more tools, experience and/or knowledge at their disposal to make a better informed prediction than the average punter on the street.

It's expertise, folks. This should be obvious stuff. Expertise is something to value. Only fools and tricksters will attempt to convince you otherwise. An expert may be fallible, an expert may not be able to guarantee that the future will pan out a certain way, but that doesn't alter the wider point which is that if they can't be relied on, then what on earth makes you think the man on the street has more tools and knowledge at his disposal other than the opinions of other experts?

 

[dougs]

I'll join in as I am a bit bored

I will solidly vote to stay IN.

I try top operate from data and rational rather than emotion.

The non emotional part immediately makes me say:

I was lucky my sperm landed and I was born in a rich country. I appreciate that I was lucky and other should be allowed my luck too.
I have no bias on religion, race, sex etc as long as people are fair and nice.
The sooner the human race mergers closer to each other the better as we will recognise each other as all a similar type of animal.
The so called politicians making money just by being their is junk.....if they were that good they would be in private industry making lots more.

From this base I want the human race to work closer together and anything that does this is good. I expect that to get to more harmony will be a rocky road sometimes or even many times. I operate from an anti fragility sense of the world.

So to the EU:

We are part of the club and a very powerful part of it, we should use the power to help fix something we created. Running away is not really an option as we are still connected physically....Norway/Sweden etc are still singing to many of the EU tunes, just without a voice at the table.

Many trade and economic surveys/reports etc by experts say it makes economic sense... I like taking experts advice in everything I do.

I like foreigners they add diversity and interest to my life....experts also say they seem to make cash for the country too....Bingo.

I am from Newcastle, I am English, I am a Brit ( also Australian), I am a European, I am a citizen of the world, I am human.

I don't want to go backwards and live on a little Island and dream of the past

Doug (IN )

 

[websaway]

I'll join in as I am a bit bored

I will solidly vote to stay IN.

I try top operate from data and rational rather than emotion.

The non emotional part immediately makes me say:

I was lucky my sperm landed and I was born in a rich country. I appreciate that I was lucky and other should be allowed my luck too.
I have no bias on religion, race, sex etc as long as people are fair and nice.
The sooner the human race mergers closer to each other the better as we will recognise each other as all a similar type of animal.
The so called politicians making money just by being their is junk.....if they were that good they would be in private industry making lots more.

From this base I want the human race to work closer together and anything that does this is good. I expect that to get to more harmony will be a rocky road sometimes or even many times. I operate from an anti fragility sense of the world.

So to the EU:

We are part of the club and a very powerful part of it, we should use the power to help fix something we created. Running away is not really an option as we are still connected physically....Norway/Sweden etc are still singing to many of the EU tunes, just without a voice at the table.

Many trade and economic surveys/reports etc by experts say it makes economic sense... I like taking experts advice in everything I do.

I like foreigners they add diversity and interest to my life....experts also say they seem to make cash for the country too....Bingo.

I am from Newcastle, I am English, I am a Brit ( also Australian), I am a European, I am a citizen of the world, I am human.

I don't want to go backwards and live on a little Island and dream of the past

Doug (IN )

Very nice, good luck with that.

 

[websaway]

And since experts apparently now don't matter to your side, then you will presumably dismiss that as worthless?

He who pays the piper still calls the tune. Ever hired an expert lawyer. He can work for either side and still win.

 

[Toonz]

He who pays the piper still calls the tune. Ever hired an expert lawyer. He can work for either side and still win.

Are you saying every (or even most) experts are compromised and should therefore be disregarded?

 

[websaway]

Are you saying every (or even most) experts are compromised and should therefore be disregarded?

No not at all but it's impossible to distinguish.

 

[Brassneck]

Farage an independent expert on the European Union.

No not at all but it's impossible to distinguish.

Apart from Nigel Farage of course.

Out of interest are you an expert on anything?

 

[gimpydog]

What we're left with is 9 out of 10 economists agreeing about the danger to the British economy of us leaving the EU. .

How many of these economic experts predicted the 2008 crash?
Let's judge them by their records.

You may think that the hit received by the economy is a price worth paying for regaining greater democracy and sovereignty, but that's a separate point.

Yes, I do.
When do these economic experts predict the next UK recession will be? Its coming soon imho, regardless of the referendum result.

This discrediting of expertise is all politically-motivated bull5hit.

This self-serving expertise is all politically-motivated bull5hit.

...such as the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, the Daily Star, the Times and the Telegraph not to mention Sky News and ITV. Just for completeness.

Not complete, but agreed.

What you don't do is arrive with a set of values/prejudices and deny the value of expertise when the expert consensus doesn't match your pre-existing views. That's cheating.

But its OK to have a opinion & then trawl Google to conjure up some "expertise" & misrepresent some stats to present that opinion as a fact?

That's what's happening here. The incurious and the poorly educated (I love the poorly educated, btw) are being deceived & misdirected.

Despite the common grumble, meteorologists ("experts" in the weather) can and do make weather forecasts that have a good probability of accuracy.

Did you listen to 'Today' on Radio 4 this morning, by any chance?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/b07f8q9t [About 15mins from the end]

Meteorologists have hundreds of years worth of data & millions of pounds worth of super-computers.

But, their forecasts are often wrong.

Just as doctors ("experts" in a field of medicine) can and do offer realistic prognoses.

Their forecasts are often wrong.

Expertise is something to value.

Nowadays, anything with value is bought & sold.

And that's why there are so many charlatans on the political gravy train & so many management consultants in business and why the poor people stay poor.

 

[Toonz]

Gimpy, you say weather forecasts are often wrong. That's a nice imprecise word that - "often". Let's cut to the chase. Are meteorological forecasts, let's say for 48 hours from now, more often right, or more often wrong?

(I would recommend you read this Met Office link on accuracy rates, but presumably you'd accuse them of being self-interested and me of trawling Google so here's one on weather verification where you can compare the forecasts they made to the actual weather and temperature.)

Here's the crux, though: how does their success rate compare with the success rate of the person on the street with no access to weather expertise? Is it better? Or no better? What do you think?

The world runs on the work of experts. Expertise matters, in all sorts of areas of life.

That it isn't perfect, that experts are fallible human beings - is besides the point.

It is so embarrassingly obvious that the Leave camp are only denying the value of expertise here because the expert consensus isn't what they want it to be. Well that's just too bad, that's life. The experts may well turn out to be wrong, but that's no reason to dismiss expertise full stop or even experts (in general) full stop. I will happily accept it if/when they turn out to be wrong - but then I value intellectual honesty over head-in-sand commitment to a cause any day of the week.

 

[bonusmedia]

I'll join in as I am a bit bored

I will solidly vote to stay IN.

I try top operate from data and rational rather than emotion.

The non emotional part immediately makes me say:

I was lucky my sperm landed and I was born in a rich country. I appreciate that I was lucky and other should be allowed my luck too.
I have no bias on religion, race, sex etc as long as people are fair and nice.
The sooner the human race mergers closer to each other the better as we will recognise each other as all a similar type of animal.
The so called politicians making money just by being their is junk.....if they were that good they would be in private industry making lots more.

From this base I want the human race to work closer together and anything that does this is good. I expect that to get to more harmony will be a rocky road sometimes or even many times. I operate from an anti fragility sense of the world.

So to the EU:

We are part of the club and a very powerful part of it, we should use the power to help fix something we created. Running away is not really an option as we are still connected physically....Norway/Sweden etc are still singing to many of the EU tunes, just without a voice at the table.

Many trade and economic surveys/reports etc by experts say it makes economic sense... I like taking experts advice in everything I do.

I like foreigners they add diversity and interest to my life....experts also say they seem to make cash for the country too....Bingo.

I am from Newcastle, I am English, I am a Brit ( also Australian), I am a European, I am a citizen of the world, I am human.

I don't want to go backwards and live on a little Island and dream of the past

Doug (IN )

Very nice, good luck with that.

Hmm. So, should we listen to the guy who employs 100+ people and is one of the largest customers in the domain resale market - or the guy who sticks his fingers in his ears and says "Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner"?

 

[martin-s]

Hmm. So, should we listen to the guy who employs 100+ people and is one of the largest customers in the domain resale market - or the guy who sticks his fingers in his ears and says "Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner"?

With respect, there's no more reason to listen to Dougs than anyone else on here. I couldn't give a crap whether he employs 100 people or not! If anything, employment is one of the obvious areas which would introduce bias to his personal motivation and decision.

Being successful is great, but sometimes the more honest and intelligent thinking comes from people with less to lose.

 

[bonusmedia]

With respect, there's no more reason to listen to Dougs than anyone else on here. I couldn't give a crap whether he employs 100 people or not! If anything, employment is one of the obvious areas which would introduce bias to his personal motivation and decision.

Being successful is great, but sometimes the more honest and intelligent thinking comes from people with less to lose.

Yes you're right. It's just mildly infuriating that someone putting across a nuanced and reasoned argument is dismissed by someone shouting nonsense.

We are all equal and we all have a right to our opinions - but none of us have a right to steamroller over the debate.

And frequently our opinions are not of equal value. My opinion on sheep farming is not likely to be as well informed or useful as Bob the sheep farmer's.

 

[Edwin]

The 2008 global financial crash comparison is a red herring. Much of that came about because many of the smartest financial experts in the world created deliberately complicated financial instruments designed to conceal their flaws. Then they bundled them up into even more complex products, wash, rinse, repeat, until there were only a handful of people in the world who could understand them. And the parties trading them went to extraordinary lengths to keep their positions opaque. Bankers made billions going into the collapse off these stupendously convoluted derivatives.

The referendum on the other hand is a highly transparent event with a precise timetable. It's a "known known". We know the exact day it will happen, and the two outcomes (there are only two). We also know the current and historic trade situations of all interested parties, the exact costs of the UK membership, the laws and rules and agreements and deals that exist now and that would no longer apply at Brexit, etc. etc. An ocean of precise, detailed data that is a forecaster's dream!

It's the difference between a terrorist attack and a dinosaur-killer asteroid strike. The former is planned and organised in the shadows, with maximum deception and subterfuge, and strikes without warning unless the security services manage to intercept chatter.

The latter would be predictable months or years in advance once it's first detected (= once the referendum's called) and the impact location and likely devastation will be easily computed from orbital mechanics, velocities, masses and other ascertainable data.

And that is what has the overwhelming majority of experts jittery. They've seen the asteroid, understand the catastrophic consequences of its impact and the exact date it will do so, and they also know we have one - and only one - chance to avoid it.

 

[websaway]

Apart from Nigel Farage of course.

Out of interest are you an expert on anything?

Absolutely nothing.

 

[websaway]

Gimpy, you say weather forecasts are often wrong. That's a nice imprecise word that - "often". Let's cut to the chase. Are meteorological forecasts, let's say for 48 hours from now, more often right, or more often wrong?

(I would recommend you read this Met Office link on accuracy rates, but presumably you'd accuse them of being self-interested and me of trawling Google so here's one on weather verification where you can compare the forecasts they made to the actual weather and temperature.)

Here's the crux, though: how does their success rate compare with the success rate of the person on the street with no access to weather expertise? Is it better? Or no better? What do you think?

The world runs on the work of experts. Expertise matters, in all sorts of areas of life.

That it isn't perfect, that experts are fallible human beings - is besides the point.

It is so embarrassingly obvious that the Leave camp are only denying the value of expertise here because the expert consensus isn't what they want it to be. Well that's just too bad, that's life. The experts may well turn out to be wrong, but that's no reason to dismiss expertise full stop or even experts (in general) full stop. I will happily accept it if/when they turn out to be wrong - but then I value intellectual honesty over head-in-sand commitment to a cause any day of the week.

I don't think the leave camp discounts expert advice. But for instance a lot of their predictions were wrong on joining the Euro, so say for instance Greece could not sort out their deal and Spain or Italy had a run on their banks,then all sorts of things can happen and do at regular intervals. Therefore you have to factor in likelihood.

 

[Edwin]

There's a really dirty debating trick being deployed by the Leave camp.

It's a simple, three step argument that goes like this...

1) "You say 'A'." (a sensible thing backed up by available data and the majority of experts)
2) "I say 'B'." (a ridiculous thing backed by a handful of fringe "experts" and by made up "facts" plucked out of thin air)
3) "So let's agree to split the difference and go with 'C'" (a position that the facts and data still don't back up, but which is significantly less extreme than 'B')

I've seen variations of the above used in a number of debates, as well as in other media.

It's a really insiduous, corrosive ploy because it looks "superficially fair". Anyone not following the subject attentively thinks "boy, that sounds reasonable and friendly - what's on earth is the other chap still arguing about? He doesn't seem to be willing to compromise. I think I'll believe the friendly one."

 

[websaway]

There's a really dirty debating trick being deployed by the Leave camp.

It's a simple, three step argument that goes like this...

1) "You say 'A'." (a sensible thing backed up by available data and the majority of experts)
2) "I say 'B'." (a ridiculous thing backed by a handful of fringe "experts" and by made up "facts" plucked out of thin air)
3) "So let's agree to split the difference and go with 'C'" (a position that the facts and data still don't back up, but which is significantly less extreme than 'B')

I've seen variations of the above used in a number of debates, as well as in other media.

It's a really insiduous, corrosive ploy because it looks "superficially fair". Anyone not following the subject attentively thinks "boy, that sounds reasonable and friendly - what's on earth is the other chap still arguing about? He doesn't seem to be willing to compromise. I think I'll believe the friendly one."

The tactics applied by the remain camp on the other hand are to completely ignore the things that actually concern the people of England in particular now. Ignore immigration and ignore sovereignty issues. Reading Bill Cash today you could almost be forgiven for thinking we lost the second world war and are therefore an annexed state of Germany. The remain argument is something like a virtual computer generated situation, the leave is like real life.

 

[websaway]

Perhaps the most infuriating thing of the Labour remain strategy is everything good is because of the EU , everything bad is because of the government. Simple but initially effective.

 

[Toonz]

I don't think the leave camp discounts expert advice.

My impression is that there's been a very calculated and orchestrated shift to do just that. It seems to have been one of their core tactics that emerged last week during the interviews and debates (along with the almost comedic parroting of the phrase "Take back control" every 4 minutes!)

Michael Gove:
"people in this country have had enough of experts"

Gisela Stuart:
"When it comes to experts, there is only one expert that matter, and that is you, the voter"

It's almost John Cleese-like. Whatever you do, don't mention the experts!

 

[Toonz]

Perhaps the most infuriating thing of the Labour remain strategy is everything good is because of the EU , everything bad is because of the government. Simple but initially effective.

To Corbyn's credit, he's been highly critical of the EU, even in speeches when he's supposed to be making the case for Remain.