EU Referendum

[Toonz]

Just had enough of reading about lenient prison sentences and of peoples general attitude ... Too many people think nobody matters other than them, have no respect for anything or anybody, and too many people that can work but don't and just live off of the tax payer.

I think both the left and the right are to blame for this. The left's blame has been well-documented in the tabloids for the past few decades, I'm sure we all know the mantra - trendy teachers, lack of discipline, breakdown of "family values", "soft" prison sentences, etc etc. I would say the right wing cause has been the 'me' culture of individualism and selfishness that emerged in the 80s. Consumerism has made people utterly self-absorbed and inward-looking, no longer looking out for their neighbour, no longer possessing a sense of shared responsibility and respect for their neighbourhood, just a big two fingers to the idea of society.

The big question is whether these are the inevitable results of socialist and capitalist elements of society, and what kind of interventions can get us back on track. I'm a fierce opponent of the death penalty for example and I think that liberal values (e.g. abortion, feminism, gay rights, openness about sex, striving for racial equality) and a decline in religious belief are all signs of progress, so I would never want us to reverse direction on those. On the other hand I'm also aware of a great gaping hole where religion used to provide an ethical benchmark, I see lousy parenting and insufficient control over children, I see mind-numbing trash and narcissism as entertainment and a seemingly endless path of dumbing down. It's a messy picture and whenever anyone tries to pin it on just the left or just the right, they're not telling us the whole story. A bit off topic I suppose but I think the support for Brexit is tapping into a bit of this dissatisfaction with the way our society has ended up - a feeling that the political class (the establishment, if you like) has let us down.

 

[Toonz]

I doubt anyone has any real expertise on what happens when the UK leaves the EU. Just more verbiage, forecasts & opinions.

Of course no-one can predict the future with certainty, but that doesn't mean that some forecasts aren't more well-informed than others and that some experts aren't more qualified than others.

What are we left with? Ten experts say 'this', twenty experts say 'that'.

What we're left with is 9 out of 10 economists agreeing about the danger to the British economy of us leaving the EU. And THAT'S the very reason the leave side are desperate to downplay the value placed on experts.

You may think that the hit received by the economy is a price worth paying for regaining greater democracy and sovereignty, but that's a separate point.

The point here is that the downplaying of experts is a political ploy of convenience. If 9 out of 10 economists were telling us that the British economy was going to benefit from leaving the EU, then the Leave side would never be discrediting the importance of experts - and neither would their supporters.

This discrediting of expertise is all politically-motivated bull5hit.

People need to make up their own minds - not rely on Wikipedia, The Guardian, BBC or any of the others spouting opinions as fact

...such as the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, the Daily Star, the Times and the Telegraph not to mention Sky News and ITV. Just for completeness.

 

[Toonz]

For people who do like experts, here's one....

with "one" being the operative word.

The point about experts is you find out whether there is anything approaching a consensus - and yes you also look at who they are too. You then factor all this information into your own beliefs and principles and values. What you don't do is arrive with a set of values/prejudices and deny the value of expertise when the expert consensus doesn't match your pre-existing views. That's cheating.

 

[websaway]

Farage an independent expert on the European Union.

 

[Toonz]

Farage an independent expert on the European Union.

And since experts apparently now don't matter to your side, then you will presumably dismiss that as worthless?

 

[websaway]

Interesting article by Bill Cash. Someone had a sense of humour when they named him. Wonder if he was born on the first of the month.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ove-right-case-against-Brussels-behemoth.html

 

[websaway]

economics is a bit like the weather, you can be an expert, but you can't tell it what to do or accurately forecast what it will do. But you can tell accurately tomorrow what it did today.

 

[Toonz]

Despite the common grumble, meteorologists ("experts" in the weather) can and do make weather forecasts that have a good probability of accuracy. That's the point.

Just as epidemiologists ("experts" in the spread of disease) can and do make predictions about outbreaks that have a high probability of accuracy.

Just as doctors ("experts" in a field of medicine) can and do offer realistic prognoses.

The fact that meteorologists and epidemiologists - and economists - can be wrong doesn't change the fact that there remains a significant difference between the expert and the non-expert when it comes to having more tools, experience and/or knowledge at their disposal to make a better informed prediction than the average punter on the street.

It's expertise, folks. This should be obvious stuff. Expertise is something to value. Only fools and tricksters will attempt to convince you otherwise. An expert may be fallible, an expert may not be able to guarantee that the future will pan out a certain way, but that doesn't alter the wider point which is that if they can't be relied on, then what on earth makes you think the man on the street has more tools and knowledge at his disposal other than the opinions of other experts?

 

[dougs]

I'll join in as I am a bit bored

I will solidly vote to stay IN.

I try top operate from data and rational rather than emotion.

The non emotional part immediately makes me say:

I was lucky my sperm landed and I was born in a rich country. I appreciate that I was lucky and other should be allowed my luck too.
I have no bias on religion, race, sex etc as long as people are fair and nice.
The sooner the human race mergers closer to each other the better as we will recognise each other as all a similar type of animal.
The so called politicians making money just by being their is junk.....if they were that good they would be in private industry making lots more.

From this base I want the human race to work closer together and anything that does this is good. I expect that to get to more harmony will be a rocky road sometimes or even many times. I operate from an anti fragility sense of the world.

So to the EU:

We are part of the club and a very powerful part of it, we should use the power to help fix something we created. Running away is not really an option as we are still connected physically....Norway/Sweden etc are still singing to many of the EU tunes, just without a voice at the table.

Many trade and economic surveys/reports etc by experts say it makes economic sense... I like taking experts advice in everything I do.

I like foreigners they add diversity and interest to my life....experts also say they seem to make cash for the country too....Bingo.

I am from Newcastle, I am English, I am a Brit ( also Australian), I am a European, I am a citizen of the world, I am human.

I don't want to go backwards and live on a little Island and dream of the past

Doug (IN )

 

[websaway]

I'll join in as I am a bit bored

I will solidly vote to stay IN.

I try top operate from data and rational rather than emotion.

The non emotional part immediately makes me say:

I was lucky my sperm landed and I was born in a rich country. I appreciate that I was lucky and other should be allowed my luck too.
I have no bias on religion, race, sex etc as long as people are fair and nice.
The sooner the human race mergers closer to each other the better as we will recognise each other as all a similar type of animal.
The so called politicians making money just by being their is junk.....if they were that good they would be in private industry making lots more.

From this base I want the human race to work closer together and anything that does this is good. I expect that to get to more harmony will be a rocky road sometimes or even many times. I operate from an anti fragility sense of the world.

So to the EU:

We are part of the club and a very powerful part of it, we should use the power to help fix something we created. Running away is not really an option as we are still connected physically....Norway/Sweden etc are still singing to many of the EU tunes, just without a voice at the table.

Many trade and economic surveys/reports etc by experts say it makes economic sense... I like taking experts advice in everything I do.

I like foreigners they add diversity and interest to my life....experts also say they seem to make cash for the country too....Bingo.

I am from Newcastle, I am English, I am a Brit ( also Australian), I am a European, I am a citizen of the world, I am human.

I don't want to go backwards and live on a little Island and dream of the past

Doug (IN )

Very nice, good luck with that.

 

[websaway]

And since experts apparently now don't matter to your side, then you will presumably dismiss that as worthless?

He who pays the piper still calls the tune. Ever hired an expert lawyer. He can work for either side and still win.

 

[Toonz]

He who pays the piper still calls the tune. Ever hired an expert lawyer. He can work for either side and still win.

Are you saying every (or even most) experts are compromised and should therefore be disregarded?

 

[websaway]

Are you saying every (or even most) experts are compromised and should therefore be disregarded?

No not at all but it's impossible to distinguish.

 

[Brassneck]

Farage an independent expert on the European Union.

No not at all but it's impossible to distinguish.

Apart from Nigel Farage of course.

Out of interest are you an expert on anything?

 

[gimpydog]

What we're left with is 9 out of 10 economists agreeing about the danger to the British economy of us leaving the EU. .

How many of these economic experts predicted the 2008 crash?
Let's judge them by their records.

You may think that the hit received by the economy is a price worth paying for regaining greater democracy and sovereignty, but that's a separate point.

Yes, I do.
When do these economic experts predict the next UK recession will be? Its coming soon imho, regardless of the referendum result.

This discrediting of expertise is all politically-motivated bull5hit.

This self-serving expertise is all politically-motivated bull5hit.

...such as the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, the Daily Star, the Times and the Telegraph not to mention Sky News and ITV. Just for completeness.

Not complete, but agreed.

What you don't do is arrive with a set of values/prejudices and deny the value of expertise when the expert consensus doesn't match your pre-existing views. That's cheating.

But its OK to have a opinion & then trawl Google to conjure up some "expertise" & misrepresent some stats to present that opinion as a fact?

That's what's happening here. The incurious and the poorly educated (I love the poorly educated, btw) are being deceived & misdirected.

Despite the common grumble, meteorologists ("experts" in the weather) can and do make weather forecasts that have a good probability of accuracy.

Did you listen to 'Today' on Radio 4 this morning, by any chance?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/b07f8q9t [About 15mins from the end]

Meteorologists have hundreds of years worth of data & millions of pounds worth of super-computers.

But, their forecasts are often wrong.

Just as doctors ("experts" in a field of medicine) can and do offer realistic prognoses.

Their forecasts are often wrong.

Expertise is something to value.

Nowadays, anything with value is bought & sold.

And that's why there are so many charlatans on the political gravy train & so many management consultants in business and why the poor people stay poor.

 

[Toonz]

Gimpy, you say weather forecasts are often wrong. That's a nice imprecise word that - "often". Let's cut to the chase. Are meteorological forecasts, let's say for 48 hours from now, more often right, or more often wrong?

(I would recommend you read this Met Office link on accuracy rates, but presumably you'd accuse them of being self-interested and me of trawling Google so here's one on weather verification where you can compare the forecasts they made to the actual weather and temperature.)

Here's the crux, though: how does their success rate compare with the success rate of the person on the street with no access to weather expertise? Is it better? Or no better? What do you think?

The world runs on the work of experts. Expertise matters, in all sorts of areas of life.

That it isn't perfect, that experts are fallible human beings - is besides the point.

It is so embarrassingly obvious that the Leave camp are only denying the value of expertise here because the expert consensus isn't what they want it to be. Well that's just too bad, that's life. The experts may well turn out to be wrong, but that's no reason to dismiss expertise full stop or even experts (in general) full stop. I will happily accept it if/when they turn out to be wrong - but then I value intellectual honesty over head-in-sand commitment to a cause any day of the week.

 

[bonusmedia]

I'll join in as I am a bit bored

I will solidly vote to stay IN.

I try top operate from data and rational rather than emotion.

The non emotional part immediately makes me say:

I was lucky my sperm landed and I was born in a rich country. I appreciate that I was lucky and other should be allowed my luck too.
I have no bias on religion, race, sex etc as long as people are fair and nice.
The sooner the human race mergers closer to each other the better as we will recognise each other as all a similar type of animal.
The so called politicians making money just by being their is junk.....if they were that good they would be in private industry making lots more.

From this base I want the human race to work closer together and anything that does this is good. I expect that to get to more harmony will be a rocky road sometimes or even many times. I operate from an anti fragility sense of the world.

So to the EU:

We are part of the club and a very powerful part of it, we should use the power to help fix something we created. Running away is not really an option as we are still connected physically....Norway/Sweden etc are still singing to many of the EU tunes, just without a voice at the table.

Many trade and economic surveys/reports etc by experts say it makes economic sense... I like taking experts advice in everything I do.

I like foreigners they add diversity and interest to my life....experts also say they seem to make cash for the country too....Bingo.

I am from Newcastle, I am English, I am a Brit ( also Australian), I am a European, I am a citizen of the world, I am human.

I don't want to go backwards and live on a little Island and dream of the past

Doug (IN )

Very nice, good luck with that.

Hmm. So, should we listen to the guy who employs 100+ people and is one of the largest customers in the domain resale market - or the guy who sticks his fingers in his ears and says "Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner"?

 

[martin-s]

Hmm. So, should we listen to the guy who employs 100+ people and is one of the largest customers in the domain resale market - or the guy who sticks his fingers in his ears and says "Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner"?

With respect, there's no more reason to listen to Dougs than anyone else on here. I couldn't give a crap whether he employs 100 people or not! If anything, employment is one of the obvious areas which would introduce bias to his personal motivation and decision.

Being successful is great, but sometimes the more honest and intelligent thinking comes from people with less to lose.

 

[bonusmedia]

With respect, there's no more reason to listen to Dougs than anyone else on here. I couldn't give a crap whether he employs 100 people or not! If anything, employment is one of the obvious areas which would introduce bias to his personal motivation and decision.

Being successful is great, but sometimes the more honest and intelligent thinking comes from people with less to lose.

Yes you're right. It's just mildly infuriating that someone putting across a nuanced and reasoned argument is dismissed by someone shouting nonsense.

We are all equal and we all have a right to our opinions - but none of us have a right to steamroller over the debate.

And frequently our opinions are not of equal value. My opinion on sheep farming is not likely to be as well informed or useful as Bob the sheep farmer's.

 

[Edwin]

The 2008 global financial crash comparison is a red herring. Much of that came about because many of the smartest financial experts in the world created deliberately complicated financial instruments designed to conceal their flaws. Then they bundled them up into even more complex products, wash, rinse, repeat, until there were only a handful of people in the world who could understand them. And the parties trading them went to extraordinary lengths to keep their positions opaque. Bankers made billions going into the collapse off these stupendously convoluted derivatives.

The referendum on the other hand is a highly transparent event with a precise timetable. It's a "known known". We know the exact day it will happen, and the two outcomes (there are only two). We also know the current and historic trade situations of all interested parties, the exact costs of the UK membership, the laws and rules and agreements and deals that exist now and that would no longer apply at Brexit, etc. etc. An ocean of precise, detailed data that is a forecaster's dream!

It's the difference between a terrorist attack and a dinosaur-killer asteroid strike. The former is planned and organised in the shadows, with maximum deception and subterfuge, and strikes without warning unless the security services manage to intercept chatter.

The latter would be predictable months or years in advance once it's first detected (= once the referendum's called) and the impact location and likely devastation will be easily computed from orbital mechanics, velocities, masses and other ascertainable data.

And that is what has the overwhelming majority of experts jittery. They've seen the asteroid, understand the catastrophic consequences of its impact and the exact date it will do so, and they also know we have one - and only one - chance to avoid it.