EU Referendum

[websaway]

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- rapidly aging population
- austerity drives
- rising birth rate
- government cutbacks
- chronic underinvestment by successive governments in infrastructure and basic services
- immigration

(the bullets in bold are the responsibility/fault of the current government and therefore those on BOTH sides of the referendum debate should, by rights, be held to account for them)

It is also worth noting that immigration both helps AND hinders the situation. Huge numbers of key staff in the NHS are from overseas (and have been needed to plug the "skills gap" that has developed over the last decade or so). Plus immigrants contribute more into the system than they cost the system, so while they may be occupying the time of a dentist or a doctor, they're also indirectly helping someone from the UK see a dentist or a doctor by paying not only for their own time but for that taken up by the person from the UK.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b12181a0-2332-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#ixzz4BAKsWv2y

By contrast, the Leave camp's list often feels more like this...

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- immigration
- more immigration
- still more immigration
- oh, and some more immigration

And you think that a million more over the next couple of years is not going to add to the problems of the increasing population you outline above. You have now lost your aim to prove your case through analysis and statistics and are resorting to cynicism.
You now want the government to magic up hundreds of thousands of homes, hundreds of thousands of school places, hundreds of thousands of hospital beds and millions of jobs .

 

[martin-s]

From the first document you linked to:

This fall represents a change to the increasing numbers of births that had been reported each year from 2001 to 2012, with the exception of a 0.3% fall in 2009. Between 2001 and 2012 the number of live births increased by 23%.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives....-quarterly-report/february-2014/sty-ltim.html

Interesting to see how the timings of the birth rate increase between 2001 and 2012 coincide so perfectly with the huge jump in net immigration in 1998. Never previously higher than 80,000 or so, suddenly it's 140,000 ish and climbing.

 

[Edwin]

When I'm ill, I see a doctor. When I need legal advice, I turn to a lawyer. When I need help with my accounts, I go to an accountant. When I need the plumbing fixed, I call in a plumber. In other words, I turn to experts.

So why has being an "expert" at something suddenly morphed into an insult? In the eyes of the Leave camp (especially during the debates) the word "expert" itself seems to produce a feeling like stepping in dog mess. Just watch their faces whenever a Remain camp person says "experts say".

Could it be because an overwhelming majority of experts support Remain? You cannot, with a straight face, read through the following list and say that the weight of expert opinion is the same on both sides...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endor...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

 

[websaway]

Apparently immigration is estimated to contribute 60% of population growth from 2012 2037. Though that's based on annual figures of 165,000 which is massively lower than the current rate.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/345

And here's a report that says 26.5% of babies are born to mothers not originally from the UK. Given how small a section of society they represent, that would imply a significantly higher birth rate. Poland is part of the headline, but so are Indian and Pakistan - two countries who have long traditions of settling here.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rentscountryofbirthenglandandwales/2014-08-28

Just to be clear, this is a response to immigration not being a factor in population growth and therefore pressure on services. I do believe in (controlled) immigration and the value it has for our economy and our culture.

Now that you believe in "controlled" immigration ( alleluia ) What bit of millions of people coming to Europe bound for England who will be given EU passports over the next few years allowing them and their wives and families to walk freely and unfettered into England, do you not comprehend.

 

[websaway]

When I'm ill, I see a doctor. When I need legal advice, I turn to a lawyer. When I need help with my accounts, I go to an accountant. When I need the plumbing fixed, I call in a plumber. In other words, I turn to experts.

So why has being an "expert" at something suddenly morphed into an insult? In the eyes of the Leave camp (especially during the debates) the word "expert" itself seems to produce a feeling like stepping in dog mess. Just watch their faces whenever a Remain camp person says "experts say".

Could it be because an overwhelming majority of experts support Remain? You cannot, with a straight face, read through the following list and say that the weight of expert opinion is the same on both sides...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endor...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

It could be because there are not many experts living in deprived areas of Britain. At least not any on the gravy train.

 

[AssetDomains]

You can't keep spending money you don't have Edwin. Austerity may not be very nice, but I can understand why it's necessary.

Maybe make them a bit less savage chase the brits named in the Panama papers like Mr Cameron's late old man who manage wealth built on the opportunities this country have given them in ways which hide it from the British tax man.
And don't get me started on the multinationals like google look at the figure we came up with for back taxes compared to France.

 

[martin-s]

Now that you believe in "controlled" immigration ( alleluia ) What bit of millions of people coming to Europe bound for England who will be given EU passports over the next few years allowing them and their wives and families to walk freely and unfettered into England, do you not comprehend.

I think you're confusing me with someone else

 

[martin-s]

Maybe make them a bit less savage chase the brits named in the Panama papers like Mr Cameron's late old man who manage wealth built on the opportunities this country have given them in ways which hide it from the British tax man.
And don't get me started on the multinationals like google look at the figure we came up with for back taxes compared to France.

The very people who are advocating remain you mean?

 

[websaway]

"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."

Laurence J peter

 

[Edwin]

It could be because there are not many experts living in deprived areas of Britain. At least not any on the gravy train.

"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."

Laurence J peter

It's not just economists. It's NHS professionals, trades unions leaders, politicians, academics, etc. etc. The list I linked to is vast.

 

[AssetDomains]

The very people who are advocating remain you mean?

I though both camps had a pretty broad spectrum supporting there argument
I'm just saying its great for Boris he can blame everything wrong with public services on immigration Cameron and Osborne wont really attack his lies because people might then look deeper into the problem and the myth that uncontrolled immigration has crippled are services for the last 10 years is perpetuated. Sturgeon and Eagle called him on it last night an the debate slowly started moving to sovereignty

 

[martin-s]

Simple question on immigration only then Edwin: Are you happy to accept the same net migration figures as we've been having every year for the next 20-30 years while traditionally poorer economies normalise with the EU?

And actually a follow-up to that, could net migration suck so much economic value out of from those countries (into ours) that it damages their economies to a level where they can only be supported by EU payments?

 

[Edwin]

Simple question on immigration only then Edwin: Are you happy to accept the same net migration figures as we've been having every year for the next 20-30 years while traditionally poorer economies normalise with the EU?

And actually a follow-up to that, could net migration suck so much economic value out of from those countries (into ours) that it damages their economies to a level where they can only be supported by EU payments?

That's a very loaded "simple" question, because it hides two big assumptions:
- the net migration figures will be the same for the next 20-30 years
- traditionally poorer economies will normalise with the EU

I'm not convinced on either of those assumptions so I'm not open to empty speculation against them. What I am convinced about though, 100.00%, is that immigration concerns alone do not provide sufficient real-world justification to vote Leave (if the decision to stay/leave is being taken on a "logical" basis)

As to your follow-up, that's a very interesting hypothetical... If I understand it correctly, you're essentially saying "what if the UK does so fantastically well out of immigrants that their home countries have problems?" Well, in that case we'll be reaping the rewards without being on the hook for the downside since the UK has secured a binding opt-out from future EU bailouts. Happy days...

 

[signature]

Just because criminals, zealots and scroungers don't live on my street doesn't mean they don't exist.
Your reply is exactly what I expected also, if you mention immigration is a problem you must be stupid and secretly racist.
Get off your moral high horse and stop patronising people because they have a different opinion to yours.

You funny dude, not sure what opinion you have that is different from mine and if you want to call yourself resist, that's up to you, I did not call you racist and the word does not exist in my comment.

Everybody here agree that we have issuesecured with immigration, but you calling immigrants all the dirty words when you don't even know a single immigrant that qualify your accusation.

Yes there are immigrants that are criminals, no doubt but there are criminals in other part of the world that are British, some British criminals are hiding in other part of Europe, it's a two way thing, it's not unique to the UK.

Like I said in my last post debate issues around immigration, don't blame immigrants, they don't make policies our positions do, blame them.

It's always the same, my immigrant friends are neighbours are the good ones, the others are bad.

We have Prison population of a little over 100k, even if all are immigrants, that's 1% of all immigrants population, I am sure the immigrants population in prison is probably 5% of the prison population.

Stick to the debate and stop calling immigrants names.

 

[denchomsky]

You funny dude, not sure what opinion you have that is different from mine and if you want to call yourself resist, that's up to you, I did not call you racist and the word does not exist in my comment.

Everybody here agree that we have issuesecured with immigration, but you calling immigrants all the dirty words when you don't even know a single immigrant that qualify your accusation.

Yes there are immigrants that are criminals, no doubt but there are criminals in other part of the world that are British, some British criminals are hiding in other part of Europe, it's a two way thing, it's not unique to the UK.

Like I said in my last post debate issues around immigration, don't blame immigrants, they don't make policies our positions do, blame them.

It's always the same, my immigrant friends are neighbours are the good ones, the others are bad.

We have Prison population of a little over 100k, even if all are immigrants, that's 1% of all immigrants population, I am sure the immigrants population in prison is probably 5% of the prison population.

Stick to the debate and stop calling immigrants names.

You obviously choose to pick up on specific parts of posts to suit your repost, READ THE ORIGINAL POST where I used these terms, I did not once say that all migrants fall under these categories. Then maybe read some other posts after that I have commented on, you sound exactly like a ranting foaming politician passing judgement and twisting headlines to suit your agenda.

 

[signature]

You obviously choose to pick up on specific parts of posts to suit your repost, READ THE ORIGINAL POST where I used these terms, I did not once say that all migrants fall under these categories. Then maybe read some other posts after that I have commented on, you sound exactly like a ranting foaming politician passing judgement and twisting headlines to suit your agenda.

You could have said most immigrants are nice people instead of the other way round.

I will let you be, you like ending your comments with funny personal comments.

Good luck...

 

[denchomsky]

You could have said most immigrants are nice people instead of the other way round.

I will let you be, you like ending your comments with funny personal comments.

Good luck...

I didn't use the word 'most' in a negative statement so why would I say it in a positive one?
Correct? oh sorry that doesn't suit your argument.

Good luck to you to.

 

[Edwin]

Here's the information about immigration and crime in the UK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_crime#United_Kingdom

A few takeaways:
"In total, foreigners represented 13% of the prison population, whereas foreign nationals are 13% of the total population in England and Wales."

"Research has found no evidence of an average causal impact of immigration on crime."

"A 2008 study found that the crime rate of Eastern European immigrants was the same as that of the indigenous population."

If you Google around the topic, it's interesting to see that the newspapers that are traditionally "anti immigration" are delighted to use the numeric rise in immigrant crime levels as a splashy headline, without pointing out that it's no greater than the rise in immigrant numbers or that immigrants are just as likely/unlikely to be criminals as Brits.

 

[martin-s]

What I am convinced about though, 100.00%, is that immigration concerns alone do not provide sufficient real-world justification to vote Leave (if the decision to stay/leave is being taken on a "logical" basis)

Of course immigration alone isn't a justification. For me the decision to vote leave is based on:

• Regaining control of sovereignty on a number of issues
• Avoiding further erosion of sovereignty (death by a thousand cuts)
• A belief that European countries, cultures and economies are too different to become an EU superstate. And that the EU is already failing by trying.
• A belief that the Euro continues to be in serious trouble.
• A belief that the pace of immigration is too fast for us to keep up with currently - and could get worse
• Recognition that the UK cannot change the EU direction through negotiation alone. If it is to change, it is going to require a shock to the system.
• An innate sense that I am British (not English, because actually I'm Welsh, just don't tell anyone) rather than European
• Distrust and a personal disconnect with the MEP system
• Shock at the lack of audited acceptance of the EU budget - and how much MEPs cost
• Faith that we are a big, proud and resourceful country, capable of making our own way in the world.
• Probably some other stuff

 

[martin-s]

As to your follow-up, that's a very interesting hypothetical... If I understand it correctly, you're essentially saying "what if the UK does so fantastically well out of immigrants that their home countries have problems?" Well, in that case we'll be reaping the rewards without being on the hook for the downside since the UK has secured a binding opt-out from future EU bailouts. Happy days...

I meant from the other countries' perspectives. Sorry if that wasn't clear. Shouldn't we have some empathy for their needs too?