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EU Referendum

Acorn EU Poll

  • Remain

    Votes: 28 30.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 57 61.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 8 8.6%

  • Total voters
    93
  • Poll closed .
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Allow a bit of grey into your black and white thinking - if the landscape changes, you adapt. The EU operates in its own self interest. If UK membership at the cost of changing a bit becomes in their self interest, they may change.

That grey comment should, in fairness, apply both ways...

You're right, there's a possibility that the EU will have to change to accommodate the UK in ways it has never accommodated other countries, post-Brexit. Stuff changes all the time - so it could happen.

But equally, I hope you can agree there's a possibility the UK will flat out fail to get a decent trade deal. Either because the only deal that makes any economic sense requires "free movement of people" (thus negating control of immigration) forcing the UK to turn it down, or because the other EU countries refuse to go along with what they perceive as an attempt to strong-arm them, and decide to make up the "UK shortfall" in some other way (e.g. by accelerating trade deal negotiations with other potential non-EU partners, such as the USA or China)
 
But equally, I hope you can agree there's a possibility the UK will flat out fail to get a decent trade deal. Either because the only deal that makes any economic sense requires "free movement of people" (thus negating control of immigration) forcing the UK to turn it down, or because the other EU countries refuse to go along with what they perceive as an attempt to strong-arm them, and decide to make up the "UK shortfall" in some other way (e.g. by accelerating trade deal negotiations with other potential non-EU partners, such as the USA or China)

It's fair to say that a trade deal could take a while, but I suspect it'll be pretty much the No.1 priority for both sides. Either way, I think a "reasonable" (compromise?) trade deal is pretty much a certainty.
 
It's fair to say that a trade deal could take a while, but I suspect it'll be pretty much the No.1 priority for both sides. Either way, I think a "reasonable" (compromise?) trade deal is pretty much a certainty.

It's likely to be more urgent for the UK than the EU (since the UK has a drop-dead deadline to work against, after which all the existing trade rules automatically stop applying) but I'm sure it will be top of mind on the EU agenda for the 2-year notice period, at least.

BTW, it's interesting** to see just how much of this kind of negotiation goes on all the time at an EU level.
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/118238.htm

(** for a certain shade of "interesting")
 
Pretty important for Germany too I suspect

Oh, definitely. After all, the UK's the second largest contributor to Germany's trade surplus, after the USA...

One potential snag is that Germany's surplus is mainly based on selling "stuff" i.e. goods, which have historically been much easier to conclude trade deals over than services. So they may bend over backwards to get a "goods" trade deal sorted out (which the UK needs too) but drag their heels over a "services" trade deal which the UK needs even more (around 80% of UK trade is in goods) but which is of much lesser importance to Germany.
 
Unfortunately not. It was nearly 13% in 2013. That's "foreign nationals", so doesn't include dual-nationality etc.
my 5% is based on the immigrant population not the percentage of immigrants in the prison population. The reason my statement was even if the total prison population are immigrants that's still less than 10% of the immigrants population.
 
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"SHUT UP" Izzard :mad:
 
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Trade Agreements....another smokescreen to baffle the masses... ...The list of countries the EU does have agreements with, is frankly pathetic.

BTW, it's interesting** to see just how much of this kind of negotiation goes on all the time at an EU level.
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/118238.htm

A WTO map of the number of Trade Agreements world wide can be seen at https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/rta_participation_map_e.htm

For a list of the trade agreements between the EU and others, see http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicSearchByMemberResult.aspx?MemberCode=918&lang=1&redirect=1, or for a list of worldwide agreements see http://rtais.wto.org/ui/PublicAllRTAList.aspx

According to the WTO data linked to above, the EU has the highest number of trade agreements in the world. Not including the current negotiations with Canada, India, Japan, USA (TTIP), Eastern Africa Community, West Africa States, and others.
 
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Forget Trade Agreements....they're bandied about as if people now what they involve....it's to take minds away from real issues. The EU DOESN'T HAVE any trade agreements with any of our largest trading partner countries. NONE!!!!! Nil; zero; zip; nadda; the square root of jack! None.

These are the countries that have EU trade agreements - prepare to be underwhelmed;

◾Kosovo

◾Bosnia and Herzegovina

◾Serbia

◾Ukraine

◾Montenegro

◾Albania

◾The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

◾Faroe Islands

◾Norway

◾Iceland

◾Switzerland

◾Algeria

◾Egypt

◾Lebanon

◾Jordan

◾Israel

◾Morocco

◾Tunisia

◾Palestinian Authority

◾Syria

◾Colombia and Peru

◾Central America

◾Iraq

◾Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe

◾Chile

◾Mexico

◾South Africa

◾Turkey

◾San Marino

◾Andorra

◾Papua New Guinea and Fiji

◾Korea

◾Cameroon

Still think that 'trade agreements' matter? We likely do more trade in one week with China or Japan than all these countries in a year.
 
Forget Trade Agreements....they're bandied about as if people now what they involve....it's to take minds away from real issues. The EU DOESN'T HAVE any trade agreements with any of our largest trading partner countries. NONE!!!!! Nil; zero; zip; nadda; the square root of jack! None.

These are the countries that have EU trade agreements - prepare to be underwhelmed;

◾Kosovo

◾Bosnia and Herzegovina

◾Serbia

◾Ukraine

◾Montenegro

◾Albania

◾The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

◾Faroe Islands

◾Norway

◾Iceland

◾Switzerland

◾Algeria

◾Egypt

◾Lebanon

◾Jordan

◾Israel

◾Morocco

◾Tunisia

◾Palestinian Authority

◾Syria

◾Colombia and Peru

◾Central America

◾Iraq

◾Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe

◾Chile

◾Mexico

◾South Africa

◾Turkey

◾San Marino

◾Andorra

◾Papua New Guinea and Fiji

◾Korea

◾Cameroon

Still think that 'trade agreements' matter? We likely do more trade in one week with China or Japan than all these countries in a year.

Here are the other countries that the EU has trade agreements with:
- France
- Germany
- UK
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Spain
- etc. (mentally insert the other EU countries here)

Just because it's all wrapped up neatly (at the moment) into a 28-state mega-deal is not the same as saying there are no trade agreements between EU countries! All those will also need to be renegotiated. As will deals with Norway, Switzerland, etc.
 
Forget Trade Agreements....they're bandied about as if people now what they involve....it's to take minds away from real issues. The EU DOESN'T HAVE any trade agreements with any of our largest trading partner countries. NONE!!!!! Nil; zero; zip; nadda; the square root of jack! None.

The only figures I can find quickly, by the CBI, show that being part of the EU, and consequently its trade agreements, gives the UK access to 1/3 of the total world markets by value.

Not including the current negotiations with Canada, India, Japan, USA (TTIP), Eastern Africa Community, West Africa States, and others.

When the EU completes the Japan and US agreements this will increase to 2/3. If all are signed then it will give access to 88% of world markets by value.

If we leave the EU then we will have trade agreements with 0%, initially at least.
 
When I'm ill, I see a doctor. When I need legal advice, I turn to a lawyer. When I need help with my accounts, I go to an accountant. When I need the plumbing fixed, I call in a plumber. In other words, I turn to experts.

So why has being an "expert" at something suddenly morphed into an insult? In the eyes of the Leave camp (especially during the debates) the word "expert" itself seems to produce a feeling like stepping in dog mess. Just watch their faces whenever a Remain camp person says "experts say".

Could it be because an overwhelming majority of experts support Remain? You cannot, with a straight face, read through the following list and say that the weight of expert opinion is the same on both sides...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endor...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
I think you've nailed it.

It's a classic trick of these charlatans who engage in populism. They'll always aim their attack at the more intelligent/informed of society in order to pander to the egos of the less intelligent/less informed, even when they know that the arguments of the former are correct. It's one of the oldest political tricks in the book. The tabloids and mid-market papers do this all the time.

"Experts" is just the latest variation on this technique. Other common lines of attack that you hear from the Trumps, Palins and Farages of the world include "the metropolitan elite", "the sneering elite", "the intelligentsia", sarcastically pronouncing the word "intellectuals" by over-ecunciating each syllable, and so on. Basically it's pandering to people's ignorance and lower instincts, saying "These people, with their facts and information and things that you're too stupid to understand - they think they're better than you, but they're not, are they?!".

The perfect encapsulation of this was Farage's "Common Sense Express" tour of Britain a few years back. Never mind the experts - it's the bloke down the pub who knows how to sort this country out, if only they'd put him in charge. It's all quite straightforward really, we can solve all the problems in the country with just good old fashioned common sense.

Lest we forget how Farage cultivates his image at every opportunity - with a pint and a press crew. Populism at its finest.

The polls and ratings tend to lift the lid on this. Boris scores well above average on likeability and PM material but has been rated well below average by fact checking organisations. A fraud cut from the same cloth as Trump, but more clever because he's cultivated this likeable image of bumbling buffonery. Nobody suspects the buffoon of being calculating. A buffoon is dumb. A bit like us.

As I said elsewhere, there are intelligent arguments for leaving the EU (and there are populist arguments being made by the remain camp), but it annoys me no end when I see the leave side relying so heavily on these tactics because they fool good decent people, not just the mean-spirited, small-minded ones. I'm thinking in particular of those who claim to be defenders of the less privileged and less well off and seriously believe that IDS, Whittingdale, Grayling, Fox, etc are going to lead them into a brave new world of better living standards and fairness for the ordinary man and woman on the street. You just need to look at the backstory of these people - in many case, the recent backstory - to see what they're really about.
 

I watched his new documentary on putlocker a few weeks ago. Interesting for Americans I suppose but I found it boring. But to counter what he says on the referendum in the video here's a word from David Icke.

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I think you've nailed it.

It's a classic trick of these charlatans who engage in populism. They'll always aim their attack at the more intelligent/informed of society in order to pander to the egos of the less intelligent/less informed, even when they know that the arguments of the former are correct. It's one of the oldest political tricks in the book. The tabloids and mid-market papers do this all the time.

"Experts" is just the latest variation on this technique. Other common lines of attack that you hear from the Trumps, Palins and Farages of the world include "the metropolitan elite", "the sneering elite", "the intelligentsia", sarcastically pronouncing the word "intellectuals" by over-ecunciating each syllable, and so on. Basically it's pandering to people's ignorance and lower instincts, saying "These people, with their facts and information and things that you're too stupid to understand - they think they're better than you, but they're not, are they?!".

The perfect encapsulation of this was Farage's "Common Sense Express" tour of Britain a few years back. Never mind the experts - it's the bloke down the pub who knows how to sort this country out, if only they'd put him in charge. It's all quite straightforward really, we can solve all the problems in the country with just good old fashioned common sense.

Lest we forget how Farage cultivates his image at every opportunity - with a pint and a press crew. Populism at its finest.

The polls and ratings tend to lift the lid on this. Boris scores well above average on likeability and PM material but has been rated well below average by fact checking organisations. A fraud cut from the same cloth as Trump, but more clever because he's cultivated this likeable image of bumbling buffonery. Nobody suspects the buffoon of being calculating. A buffoon is dumb. A bit like us.

As I said elsewhere, there are intelligent arguments for leaving the EU (and there are populist arguments being made by the remain camp), but it annoys me no end when I see the leave side relying so heavily on these tactics because they fool good decent people, not just the mean-spirited, small-minded ones. I'm thinking in particular of those who claim to be defenders of the less privileged and less well off and seriously believe that IDS, Whittingdale, Grayling, Fox, etc are going to lead them into a brave new world of better living standards and fairness for the ordinary man and woman on the street. You just need to look at the backstory of these people - in many case, the recent backstory - to see what they're really about.

I have not heard anyone say leaving will be a bed of roses. Most are saying, like Cameron last November, that we are up to the challenge. But the alternative to leaving is not an option for a lot of people.
 
One more point to note on trade agreements: they don't necessarily apply to everything. Indeed, they can be as narrow as a single product or product category. We've had the good fortune to be "spoilt" by the EU since the single market covers just about everything in one neat package, but in a situation where individual trade negotiations would need to be conducted, and individual trade agreements reached, country by country, it could well be that different industries will end up getting different deals depending on the relative strengths of both parties.

Whereas the current situation (as far as the EU goes) is much simpler, more straightforward, and more beneficial: no tariffs or barriers at all on ANY goods traded within the EU (services are a more complex picture)
 
The bookies are rarely wrong and you can still quadruple your money on leave winning. Surprised they don't see it as 50:50 unless they know something we don't??
 
BTW, can I just say that... barring a few sticky moments here and there, I think this thread is overall the most polite in-depth discussion of the Brexit debate/referendum I've seen.

I hope you feel the same, and I hope we can all work to keep it that way, no matter our differing viewpoints.
 
Here are the other countries that the EU has trade agreements with:
- France
- Germany
- UK
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Spain
- etc. (mentally insert the other EU countries here)

Just because it's all wrapped up neatly (at the moment) into a 28-state mega-deal is not the same as saying there are no trade agreements between EU countries! All those will also need to be renegotiated. As will deals with Norway, Switzerland, etc.

Here's a solution to that...keep the status quo with those countries. After all, it's in their favour to do so. BTW, UK sales to EU counties has been declining for years.
 
All those will also need to be renegotiated. As will deals with Norway, Switzerland, etc.

If we leave the EU then we will have trade agreements with 0%, initially at least.

I do wish you guys would stop this 'project fear' nonsense & do some fact finding before you post this stuff.

If we leave, we can fall back on the WTO trade rules enshrined in the Marrakesh Agreement, which we signed up to 22 years ago along with 123 other nations.

https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/marrakesh_decl_e.htm

Trade will continue, with, or without, further treaties.

The various agreements which make up the Marrakesh Agreement combine as an indivisible whole; no entity can be party to any one agreement without being party to them all.
 
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