EU Referendum

[denchomsky]

When you say "fault", do you mean "they can't help it"? Or do you mean "they're not the cause of it"?

The latter.

 

[Edwin]

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- rapidly aging population
- austerity drives
- rising birth rate
- government cutbacks
- chronic underinvestment by successive governments in infrastructure and basic services
- immigration

(the bullets in bold are the responsibility/fault of the current government and therefore those on BOTH sides of the referendum debate should, by rights, be held to account for them)

It is also worth noting that immigration both helps AND hinders the situation. Huge numbers of key staff in the NHS are from overseas (and have been needed to plug the "skills gap" that has developed over the last decade or so). Plus immigrants contribute more into the system than they cost the system, so while they may be occupying the time of a dentist or a doctor, they're also indirectly helping someone from the UK see a dentist or a doctor by paying not only for their own time but for that taken up by the person from the UK.

Christian Dustmann and Tommaso Frattini, two researchers at University College London, concluded that between 2001 and 2011, new migrants from the 10 countries that joined the EU in 2004 contributed £5bn more in taxes than they received in benefits and public services. By contrast, over the same period, UK-born people imposed a net cost on the exchequer of £617bn.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b12181a0-2332-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#ixzz4BAKsWv2y

By contrast, the Leave camp's list often feels more like this...

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- immigration
- more immigration
- still more immigration
- oh, and some more immigration

 

[Edwin]

The latter.

Then if they're not the cause of it, why vote in a referendum on the basis of wanting to "solve" it that way?

 

[denchomsky]

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- rapidly aging population
- austerity drives
- rising birth rate
- government cutbacks
- chronic underinvestment by successive governments in infrastructure and basic services
- immigration

(the bullets in bold are the responsibility/fault of the current government and therefore those on BOTH sides of the referendum debate should, by rights, be held to account for them)

It is also worth noting that immigration both helps AND hinders the situation. Huge numbers of key staff in the NHS are from overseas (and have been needed to plug the "skills gap" that has developed over the last decade or so). Plus immigrants contribute more into the system than they cost the system, so while they may be occupying the time of a dentist or a doctor, they're also indirectly helping someone from the UK see a dentist or a doctor by paying not only for their own time but for that taken up by the person from the UK.

Yes, I totally agree, and all the educated, open minded, integrated immigrants that come to this country are doing a brilliant job.
You do know that these people will not be made to leave if we vote to leave the EU?... and with controlled immigration we can continue to welcome these important migrants that thankfully choose the UK to practice their skills.

 

[martin-s]

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- rapidly aging population
- austerity drives
- rising birth rate
- government cutbacks
- chronic underinvestment by successive governments in infrastructure and basic services
- immigration

Aging population > generally seen as a good thing, and certainly nothing you can change.

Austerity > Unpleasant, but short term investment must be backed by funding. Using debt for investment is a short term solution and one that is no longer practical when the cost of servicing the debt becomes prohibitive because total debt is already too high.

Rising birth rate > As far as I know, there is actually a declining birth rate. Though I seem to remember hearing that immigrant birth rates are higher than UK nationals at some point in this campaign. I can't seem to find a source for that, but here's two on the declining birth rate:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat.../birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2015-07-15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28330429

Government cutbacks > Is this different from austerity? Are you guilty of including the same point in your list twice, as you accuse others of?

Chronic underinvestment in infrastructure > I completely agree with this and there is an argument for using long term debt for infrstructure investments.

Immigration > Well done on finally getting there. I bet it was hard for you to admit it

 

[denchomsky]

Then if they're not the cause of it, why vote in a referendum on the basis of wanting to "solve" it that way?

Why are you presuming that immigration is the main motivating factor when making my decision?
This discussion is about immigration, so I am airing my views about that subject.

 

[Edwin]

Sorry, in my mind when I was posting, "austerity" was not raising investment in line with trends such as inflation, population greying etc. while "government cutbacks" was reducing investment. You're quite right, they're different parts of the same spectrum.

 

[websaway]

So long as people continue to dilute very complex problems with a whole host of causes down to a knee-jerk, made-for-slogans "uncontrolled immigration", their argument will NEVER be credible with anyone who takes the time to dig into the background to find out more.

(Unfortunately most people may not take the time, and we may end up with a different result from that which logic should dictate on 23 June)

You have lost your argument. And the reason. You have in the interests of self ( I suspect ) ignored the issues that affect grass roots people. Your argument has been about what might happen, which even if it is strong, it's conjecture. You have conveniently ignored the realities of peoples lives, and I believe that is because you are ignorant to what is really happening in vast parts of the country. People like Yvette Cooper are more than willing to shed crocodile tears when pleading for us to take in refugees and yet refuse to recognise the torture caused to some of our underprivileged population through uncontrolled immigration.
When people like Charity worker David Milliband advise us to stay in Europe , It's easy for us to overlook the fact he gets a salary of £400,000 per year for his "charitable work" . These people put self interest ahead of the real issue that affects the underprivileged of our country .

 

[websaway]

I would imagine the figure is zero, because that's part of the concession package that Cameron won that will come into place after a Remain vote. In other words, it's not active yet, but a Remain vote will activate it.

(Obviously Cameron won't get any of the things he negotiated if the UK chooses Leave, because they won't be relevant anyway.)

And that will be a lawyers banquet.

 

[Edwin]

Rising birth rate > As far as I know, there is actually a declining birth rate. Though I seem to remember hearing that immigrant birth rates are higher than UK nationals at some point in this campaign. I can't seem to find a source for that, but here's two on the declining birth rate:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat.../birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2015-07-15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28330429

From the first document you linked to:

This fall represents a change to the increasing numbers of births that had been reported each year from 2001 to 2012, with the exception of a 0.3% fall in 2009. Between 2001 and 2012 the number of live births increased by 23%.

That 23% are coming of age for nursery and school places (and then later on, university places or the jobs market). The birthrate has dropped off in the last couple of years, but the effects of that mini baby boom are going to be rippling through public services for the foreseeable future (100+ years in many cases, since the number of centenarians is predicted to rise sharply and keep on rising).

 

[AssetDomains]

Yes, I totally agree, and all the educated, open minded, integrated immigrants that come to this country are doing a brilliant job.
You do know that these people will not be made to leave if we vote to leave the EU?... and with controlled immigration we can continue to welcome these important migrants that thankfully choose the UK to practice their skills.

And if more leavers came out with balanced statements like this instead of picking just up on the tiny minority who may be 'Criminals, Zealots Scroungers' or terrorists then it would be much easier for me the son of an immigrant and other liberal minded to engage with your camp. Contrary to how a may have come across I have real concerns about remaining because of the erosion of are laws and sovereignty and may actually leave. It just makes my blood boil when people like Boris blame all that's wrong on this country on migrants despite the years of austerity he's supported and supposedly sensibly minded people buy into and perpetuate the myth that immigration controlled or uncontrolled is the real reason some public services are in a mess.

 

[martin-s]

Apparently immigration is estimated to contribute 60% of population growth from 2012 2037. Though that's based on annual figures of 165,000 which is massively lower than the current rate.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/345

And here's a report that says 26.5% of babies are born to mothers not originally from the UK. Given how small a section of society they represent, that would imply a significantly higher birth rate. Poland is part of the headline, but so are Indian and Pakistan - two countries who have long traditions of settling here.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rentscountryofbirthenglandandwales/2014-08-28

Just to be clear, this is a response to immigration not being a factor in population growth and therefore pressure on services. I do believe in (controlled) immigration and the value it has for our economy and our culture.

 

[Edwin]

It just makes my blood boil when people like Boris blame all that's wrong on this country on migrants despite the years of austerity he's supported and supposedly sensibly minded people buy into and perpetuate the myth that immigration controlled or uncontrolled is the real reason some public services are in a mess.

THAT! That's exactly how I feel too. Every debate I watch just makes me feel more angry (note to self: perhaps I should stop watching them)

 

[websaway]

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- rapidly aging population
- austerity drives
- rising birth rate
- government cutbacks
- chronic underinvestment by successive governments in infrastructure and basic services
- immigration

(the bullets in bold are the responsibility/fault of the current government and therefore those on BOTH sides of the referendum debate should, by rights, be held to account for them)

It is also worth noting that immigration both helps AND hinders the situation. Huge numbers of key staff in the NHS are from overseas (and have been needed to plug the "skills gap" that has developed over the last decade or so). Plus immigrants contribute more into the system than they cost the system, so while they may be occupying the time of a dentist or a doctor, they're also indirectly helping someone from the UK see a dentist or a doctor by paying not only for their own time but for that taken up by the person from the UK.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b12181a0-2332-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#ixzz4BAKsWv2y

By contrast, the Leave camp's list often feels more like this...

The current pressure on public services comes from:
- immigration
- more immigration
- still more immigration
- oh, and some more immigration

And you think that a million more over the next couple of years is not going to add to the problems of the increasing population you outline above. You have now lost your aim to prove your case through analysis and statistics and are resorting to cynicism.
You now want the government to magic up hundreds of thousands of homes, hundreds of thousands of school places, hundreds of thousands of hospital beds and millions of jobs .

 

[martin-s]

From the first document you linked to:

This fall represents a change to the increasing numbers of births that had been reported each year from 2001 to 2012, with the exception of a 0.3% fall in 2009. Between 2001 and 2012 the number of live births increased by 23%.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives....-quarterly-report/february-2014/sty-ltim.html

Interesting to see how the timings of the birth rate increase between 2001 and 2012 coincide so perfectly with the huge jump in net immigration in 1998. Never previously higher than 80,000 or so, suddenly it's 140,000 ish and climbing.

 

[Edwin]

When I'm ill, I see a doctor. When I need legal advice, I turn to a lawyer. When I need help with my accounts, I go to an accountant. When I need the plumbing fixed, I call in a plumber. In other words, I turn to experts.

So why has being an "expert" at something suddenly morphed into an insult? In the eyes of the Leave camp (especially during the debates) the word "expert" itself seems to produce a feeling like stepping in dog mess. Just watch their faces whenever a Remain camp person says "experts say".

Could it be because an overwhelming majority of experts support Remain? You cannot, with a straight face, read through the following list and say that the weight of expert opinion is the same on both sides...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endor...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

 

[websaway]

Apparently immigration is estimated to contribute 60% of population growth from 2012 2037. Though that's based on annual figures of 165,000 which is massively lower than the current rate.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/345

And here's a report that says 26.5% of babies are born to mothers not originally from the UK. Given how small a section of society they represent, that would imply a significantly higher birth rate. Poland is part of the headline, but so are Indian and Pakistan - two countries who have long traditions of settling here.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rentscountryofbirthenglandandwales/2014-08-28

Just to be clear, this is a response to immigration not being a factor in population growth and therefore pressure on services. I do believe in (controlled) immigration and the value it has for our economy and our culture.

Now that you believe in "controlled" immigration ( alleluia ) What bit of millions of people coming to Europe bound for England who will be given EU passports over the next few years allowing them and their wives and families to walk freely and unfettered into England, do you not comprehend.

 

[websaway]

When I'm ill, I see a doctor. When I need legal advice, I turn to a lawyer. When I need help with my accounts, I go to an accountant. When I need the plumbing fixed, I call in a plumber. In other words, I turn to experts.

So why has being an "expert" at something suddenly morphed into an insult? In the eyes of the Leave camp (especially during the debates) the word "expert" itself seems to produce a feeling like stepping in dog mess. Just watch their faces whenever a Remain camp person says "experts say".

Could it be because an overwhelming majority of experts support Remain? You cannot, with a straight face, read through the following list and say that the weight of expert opinion is the same on both sides...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endor...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

It could be because there are not many experts living in deprived areas of Britain. At least not any on the gravy train.

 

[AssetDomains]

You can't keep spending money you don't have Edwin. Austerity may not be very nice, but I can understand why it's necessary.

Maybe make them a bit less savage chase the brits named in the Panama papers like Mr Cameron's late old man who manage wealth built on the opportunities this country have given them in ways which hide it from the British tax man.
And don't get me started on the multinationals like google look at the figure we came up with for back taxes compared to France.

 

[martin-s]

Now that you believe in "controlled" immigration ( alleluia ) What bit of millions of people coming to Europe bound for England who will be given EU passports over the next few years allowing them and their wives and families to walk freely and unfettered into England, do you not comprehend.

I think you're confusing me with someone else