EU Referendum

[Edwin]

I have never seen a coherent, reasoned fact-based argument** setting out how the UK can cement the necessary trade deals with the EU after Brexit without accepting freedom of movement as part of the deal. There is no evidence whatsoever the EU would countenance that deal.

(**"We're big so they'll have to do what we want." doesn't qualify)

And if that's the case, then Leave provides no more control on immigration than Remain.

 

[martin-s]

I have never seen a coherent, reasoned fact-based argument setting out how the UK can cement the necessary trade deals with the EU after Brexit without accepting freedom of movement as part of the deal.

They need and want to trade with us Edwin. Where there's a need and a want, there's a way.

 

[Edwin]

I'm amazed that the number of MP's for remain isn't higher....asking MP's to vote against bureaucracy is like getting turkeys to vote for Christmas. The fact a quarter are voting against it speaks volumes - out of any group you could mention, they are the most likely to vote remain.

Frank Field (one of the few Labour Leave supporters) warned a few hours ago that the Labour party is likely to lose a million votes because of its Remain stance.

If that's true, doesn't that show their official position is against their own self-interest, not in line with it?

 

[websaway]

I have never seen a coherent, reasoned fact-based argument** setting out how the UK can cement the necessary trade deals with the EU after Brexit without accepting freedom of movement as part of the deal. There is no evidence whatsoever the EU would countenance that deal.

(**"We're big so they'll have to do what we want." doesn't qualify)

And if that's the case, then Leave provides no more control on immigration than Remain.

You mean Germany will insist we open our borders or they will not sell us their cars.

 

[Edwin]

You mean Germany will insist we open our borders or they will not sell us their cars.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ss-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

 

[websaway]

Frank Field (one of the few Labour Leave supporters) warned a few hours ago that the Labour party is likely to lose a million votes because of its Remain stance.

If that's true, doesn't that show their official position is against their own self-interest, not in line with it?

Old labour are not remain, they just find themselves between a rock and a hard place. I've heard skinners gone over.
I think politicians generally will hope memories are short, because with the obvious exception of Farage , their personal pre referendum credibility is in shreds.

 

[martin-s]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ss-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

See the bits where he mentions Europe would have to start doing things differently after Brexit? That's the drum I'm banging.

 

[Edwin]

See the bits where he mentions Europe would have to start doing things differently after Brexit? That's the drum I'm banging.

Even if they do, the UK will be out and therefore not a beneficiary of their reforms.

 

[websaway]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ss-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

This is where you fall down. You try to prove your argument, instead of looking at common sense. We have one German politician, who clearly wants us to remain saying something that proves nothing. Doesn't he need to please his voters, are his voters not the people who make German cars. If he did weald so much power, would we really want to cosy up to him.

 

[websaway]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ss-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

Does this guy totally represent the country that tried to unsuccessfully invade us some years back. The country that invited an uncapped number of economic migrants from the middle east and Africa just last summer. The country that has created turmoil in Europe. Oh well I suggest we stand by our beds and listen to him.

 

[Edwin]

Does this guy totally represent the country that tried to unsuccessfully invade us some years back. The country that invited an uncapped number of economic migrants from the middle east and Africa just last summer. The country that has created turmoil in Europe. Oh well I suggest we stand by our beds and listen to him.

Oh, really? You're going to use the "don't mention the war" line of reasoning to rubbish the comments of Germany's equivalent of George Osborne?

Distasteful. Disgraceful.

I have no idea how you expect a debate to continue, on any level, when resorting to shots of such cheapness.

 

[gimpydog]

I am sure the immigrants population in prison is probably 5% of the prison population..

Unfortunately not. It was nearly 13% in 2013. That's "foreign nationals", so doesn't include dual-nationality etc.

At 30 June 2013 there were 10,786 foreign nationals in prisons in England and Wales from 160 different countries. Nine of these countries accounted for one-half of the foreign nationals in prisons. Poland, Jamaica and the Irish Republic are the countries with the most nationals in prison establishments.

At the end of March 2013 the prison population was 83,842

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn04334.pdf

 

[Edwin]

Unfortunately not. It was nearly 13% in 2013. That's "foreign nationals", so doesn't include dual-nationality etc.

As I posted already, that's exactly equal to the % of foreign nationals in Britain. In other words, immigrants are just as law abiding/criminal as UK citizens, no more, no less.

 

[websaway]

Oh, really? You're going to use the "don't mention the war" line of reasoning to rubbish the comments of Germany's equivalent of George Osborne?

Distasteful. Disgraceful.

I have no idea how you expect a debate to continue, on any level, when resorting to shots of such cheapness.

No apologies here Edwin. I don't like being dictated to by Brussels who at least have some credibility because we joined, so certainly not some German finance minister, who could be out on his ear tomorrow. I suspect we are not going to be dictated to by a single politician in Germany who has absolutely no power over us at all. He admits that if we go so will Norway and Holland so he is trying a bit of heavy handed scare tactics. We joined the EU, we are not run by Germany, although they have tried to control us in various ways before and came unstuck. And keep your politically correct standards for what you say and don't try to impose your measures on me. Merkel invited millions into Germany and caused chaos in Europe, I think they should be apologising for what they have caused and not threaten other countries.

 

[martin-s]

Even if they do, the UK will be out and therefore not a beneficiary of their reforms.

Unless there's another referendum.

 

[gimpydog]

As I posted already, that's exactly equal to the % of foreign nationals in Britain.

That is untrue. You are probably quoting Wikipedia and confusing "country of birth" - which is 13%, with "nationality" which is 8.4%.

So it follows that the non-UK national prison population is about 50 % higher than it should be statistically.

• "In 2014, 1 in 12 (8.4%) of the usual resident population of the UK had non-British nationality. This compares to 1 in 20 (5.0%) in 2004"

FACTS: http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...countryofbirthandnationalityreport/2015-09-27

Figure 3: 5 most common countries of birth in the UK in 2014

 

[Edwin]

Unless there's another referendum.

Sorry, you've lost me.

One thing both the Leave and Remain camps haven't disputed is the fact that if the UK leaves it will have to go through exactly the same application process to rejoin as any other country would when joining for the first time. (This argument was also put forward extremely forcefully during the Scottish Referendum)

In other words, having been a former EU member doesn't cut any corners if it came time to re-join. And the process for becoming a EU member is extremely long-winded and exigent, and requires the unanimous consent of every EU country.

So a future referendum on accession would be the very first and least of the hurdles in the way of the UK re-joining the EU...

 

[BREWSTERS]

Frank Field (one of the few Labour Leave supporters) warned a few hours ago that the Labour party is likely to lose a million votes because of its Remain stance.

If that's true, doesn't that show their official position is against their own self-interest, not in line with it?

MP's voted in favour of attacking Syria against the views of the majority of people - they don't care because their loyalties lie elsewhere. If anyone believes that top MP's work in the interests of their constituents, please, show me the evidence. There is a huge amount of evidence showing they don't.

In the case of Brexit, they're scared that leaving would bring down the whole EU super state. Which it likely will do.

 

[martin-s]

Sorry, you've lost me.

One thing both the Leave and Remain camps haven't disputed is the fact that if the UK leaves it will have to go through exactly the same application process to rejoin as any other country would when joining for the first time. (This argument was also put forward extremely forcefully during the Scottish Referendum)

If the Brexit shockwave around Europe is big enough, the rules might change. Who knows.

Allow a bit of grey into your black and white thinking - if the landscape changes, you adapt. The EU operates in its own self interest. If UK membership at the cost of changing a bit becomes in their self interest, they may change.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, I'm saying that the world after Brexit might look different, so why rule it out 100%?

In a scenario where we vote leave, we have a two year exit negotiation period. Who's to say what that might bring.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Oh, really? You're going to use the "don't mention the war" line of reasoning to rubbish the comments of Germany's equivalent of George Osborne?

Equivalent of George Osborne? So this guy's qualifications to run the economy is a history degree too? Or was he at school with Merkel? Maybe he's got a longstanding coke addiction perhaps? Or is he a shareholder in his family business which has paid no corporation tax for years despite being able to pay out sizeable dividends?

You're right....disgusting!