EU Referendum

[Edwin]

Interesting debate from Dover on BBC radio 5 live at the moment.

It started off well, but everything's got a bit testy. A pity, since there were a lot of "real people" giving views for both sides, as opposed to experts and career politicians.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Imagine for a moment that a tiny group of people in say, Hastings, were in charge of the local decisions of Carlisle. When shops could open; planning permissions; town parking regs; social services; local by-laws; who you could trade with, etc. This group in Hastings has never been to Carlisle. No one ever elected them into power, not least the people of Carlisle. The people of Carlisle also need to send a sizeable portion of their income to the Hastings group...who never get audited, and never have to account for that money.
If you were from or lived in Carlisle, would you be happy about that?

I haven't seen any argument to remain that holds water...

 

[RobM]

It seems the remain camp never want to mention the unelected people who pass laws that can't be changed, questioned, debated etc.

 

[gimpydog]

Watch carefully & you can see Osbo's lip starting to curl

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[Adam H]

This is an interesting read

 

[Edwin]

"What is the European Union?" - a handy explainer
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/what-is-the-european-union

 

[RobM]

'People complain it is not elected - but then neither is the British civil service.'

No and neither is the local postman or milkman. They, like the British civil service, don't *propose* laws. Nice attempt there.

 

[gimpydog]

This is an interesting read

View attachment 1173

Guess they won't be popping round for nibbles & drinkies this weekend

 

[Brassneck]

'People complain it is not elected - but then neither is the British civil service.'

No and neither is the local postman or milkman. They, like the British civil service, don't *propose* laws. Nice attempt there.

The civil service do propose and work up policy options though. Commission proposals still have to be voted on by the council of ministers and the European Parliament. There are plenty of opportunities for member states to object to elements and to negotiate amendments or opt outs.

 

[Edwin]

Here's something from the BBC live feed...

Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers also rejects warnings there would have to be border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. She says the common travel area existed for decades before the UK joined the EU and said it would continue to exist if the UK voted to leave. She said it had survived a civil war, a world war, and 30 years of the Troubles.

"There is absolutely no reason why it can't survive a Brexit vote."

Her statement is misleading on a number of levels.
1) The problem is not solely the common travel area between the UK and Ireland, it's also the freedom of movement area between Ireland and all other EU states (since anyone wanting to get into the UK can go via Ireland->N.I.->Rest of UK without being subject to the same level of scrutiny as they would face coming through a port/airport in mainland UK) The two issues go hand in hand, and can't be separated. Unless Ireland gives up its own freedom of movement, the flow I just described will remain open to people.

2) The old free movement areas pre-EU were much, much smaller than they are now, encompassing fewer countries, so for example there was no route such as the ones the refugees are taking now that passed solely through "free movement" countries back in those days. In other words, the world has changed too much in the interim for her throw-back to the past to be meaningful as a comparison.

If you're in favour of Leave, how would you see the Ireland/Northern Ireland border problem resolved? Do you feel that re-establishing border posts there is a worthwhile price to pay?

(BTW, what I posted above about a possible route for people to get into the UK is factual based on the current situation, not simply my opinion. There's no border check between Ireland and Northern Ireland. There's also no requirement to have a passport for travel between Northern Ireland and mainland UK, and a quick Google shows that no more than occasional spot checks of photo ID are conducted for ferries arriving from N.I. Please do your own research if you have any doubts about this - everything can be confirmed in under 5 minutes.)

 

[martin-s]

It's an interesting question Edwin. I guess there are ways of policing borders without border control - flight manifests, etc.

Setting up border controls between Ireland and NI, might open a lot of tender wounds.

Likewise border controls between NI and the rest of the UK would be a delicate subject.

 

[Skinner]

That Villars woman is a plank, she's the one who paraphrased said "this manifesto is just to get elected, the next one will change our stance on the immigration limits". It were on news night I think, when pressed over the 100,000 limit on immigrants.

Has anyone seen this thing about asking the tories (as the current gov) if they would protect workers rights or reduce them (during brexit nego)? a petition were apparently delivered asking for answers. I only caught a the last few seconds and I've only just got home. So I haven't searched yet.

 

[Edwin]

Has anyone seen this thing about asking the tories (as the current gov) if they would protect workers rights or reduce them (during brexit nego)? a petition were apparently delivered asking for answers. I only caught a the last few seconds and I've only just got home. So I haven't searched yet.

There's this petition with over 40,000 signatures...
http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/inforbritain/petition

The creation of the petition was fairly widely reported a few days ago. I'm not sure it's been officially presented to Leave though (it was aimed at the "Leave" camp, not specifically the Tories)

 

[Edwin]

In all this mess - and let's make no bones about it, it is a mess - my one hope is that whatever the result it comes from such a decisive majority of votes that the other camp falls silent.

If we "Remain" then the UK has to get on with shaping the EU as hard as it possibly can in the direction that suits the UK best.

If we "Leave" then the UK has to get cracking on forging new trade deals, safeguarding laws and rights, and negotiating the terms of exit (especially but not exclusively within the initial 2-year window)

Neither of the above will be helped by a rear-guard battle from the losing side, whichever it turns out to be. This was alluded to at PMQ yesterday, but inconclusively.

 

[RobM]

Well if betfair is anything to go by it's going to be quite a majority for the remain camp. About 66% 34%.

 

[Edwin]

Well if betfair is anything to go by it's going to be quite a majority for the remain camp. About 66% 34%.

I don't know enough about betting markets to answer the following...

Do the current odds factor in all the money that's been bet to date? In other words, do they simply reflect "recent betting" patterns, or do they take into account every single bet that's ever been placed on the referendum through that bookmaker?

And a bonus question for those who know their betting stuff...

Do the odds even take into account external events (such as polls and debates) directly, or are they created exclusively by betting patterns and the market appetite for bets on each side?

 

[RobM]

I think betfair is a good indicator because the odds are laid/placed by the people - not the bookies. Basically they just reflect the betting pattern and when I looked yesterday 21 million pounds had been applied with odds for remain at 1.34 (about 1/3). As betfair take 5% off the winning bet on either side their is no vested interest. That is the amount placed since betting began on that option.

 

[RobM]

Just looked now - odds have actually got better for the remain camp with 22 million GBP placed and currently 1.29 (2/7).

 

[RobM]

A lot of money to be made up until the vote - if you'd backed yesterday at 1.34 you could've laid today at 1.3 and made a tidy sum regardless Anyway that's a different thread.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Trade Agreements....another smokescreen to baffle the masses. The EU does NOT have any trade agreements with The US, China, Japan, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Russia and on and on.
Yet we have the 5th largest economy - that in itself shows that we can stand on our own in the world, and the EU is actually stifling almost every country within it.

We are a far more important market for EU countries than they are for us; does that put us in a strong, or a weak position would you say?

The list of countries the EU does have agreements with, is frankly pathetic.