EU Referendum

[Edwin]

In all this mess - and let's make no bones about it, it is a mess - my one hope is that whatever the result it comes from such a decisive majority of votes that the other camp falls silent.

If we "Remain" then the UK has to get on with shaping the EU as hard as it possibly can in the direction that suits the UK best.

If we "Leave" then the UK has to get cracking on forging new trade deals, safeguarding laws and rights, and negotiating the terms of exit (especially but not exclusively within the initial 2-year window)

Neither of the above will be helped by a rear-guard battle from the losing side, whichever it turns out to be. This was alluded to at PMQ yesterday, but inconclusively.

 

[RobM]

Well if betfair is anything to go by it's going to be quite a majority for the remain camp. About 66% 34%.

 

[Edwin]

Well if betfair is anything to go by it's going to be quite a majority for the remain camp. About 66% 34%.

I don't know enough about betting markets to answer the following...

Do the current odds factor in all the money that's been bet to date? In other words, do they simply reflect "recent betting" patterns, or do they take into account every single bet that's ever been placed on the referendum through that bookmaker?

And a bonus question for those who know their betting stuff...

Do the odds even take into account external events (such as polls and debates) directly, or are they created exclusively by betting patterns and the market appetite for bets on each side?

 

[RobM]

I think betfair is a good indicator because the odds are laid/placed by the people - not the bookies. Basically they just reflect the betting pattern and when I looked yesterday 21 million pounds had been applied with odds for remain at 1.34 (about 1/3). As betfair take 5% off the winning bet on either side their is no vested interest. That is the amount placed since betting began on that option.

 

[RobM]

Just looked now - odds have actually got better for the remain camp with 22 million GBP placed and currently 1.29 (2/7).

 

[RobM]

A lot of money to be made up until the vote - if you'd backed yesterday at 1.34 you could've laid today at 1.3 and made a tidy sum regardless Anyway that's a different thread.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Trade Agreements....another smokescreen to baffle the masses. The EU does NOT have any trade agreements with The US, China, Japan, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Russia and on and on.
Yet we have the 5th largest economy - that in itself shows that we can stand on our own in the world, and the EU is actually stifling almost every country within it.

We are a far more important market for EU countries than they are for us; does that put us in a strong, or a weak position would you say?

The list of countries the EU does have agreements with, is frankly pathetic.

 

[bonusmedia]

I think betfair is a good indicator because the odds are laid/placed by the people - not the bookies. Basically they just reflect the betting pattern and when I looked yesterday 21 million pounds had been applied with odds for remain at 1.34 (about 1/3). As betfair take 5% off the winning bet on either side their is no vested interest. That is the amount placed since betting began on that option.

It's really all one market - if odds diverge too much between betfair and the bookies then arbitrage traders will quickly bring them back into line. Plenty of bookies and professionals use Betfair. It takes a very large number of ordinary punters to move the odds set by the professionals on a market with this much liquidity

 

[gimpydog]

Here's something from the BBC live feed...



Her statement is misleading on a number of levels.
1) The problem is not solely the common travel area between the UK and Ireland, it's also the freedom of movement area between Ireland and all other EU states (since anyone wanting to get into the UK can go via Ireland->N.I.->Rest of UK without being subject to the same level of scrutiny as they would face coming through a port/airport in mainland UK) The two issues go hand in hand, and can't be separated. Unless Ireland gives up its own freedom of movement, the flow I just described will remain open to people.

2) The old free movement areas pre-EU were much, much smaller than they are now, encompassing fewer countries, so for example there was no route such as the ones the refugees are taking now that passed solely through "free movement" countries back in those days. In other words, the world has changed too much in the interim for her throw-back to the past to be meaningful as a comparison.

If you're in favour of Leave, how would you see the Ireland/Northern Ireland border problem resolved? Do you feel that re-establishing border posts there is a worthwhile price to pay?

(BTW, what I posted above about a possible route for people to get into the UK is factual based on the current situation, not simply my opinion. There's no border check between Ireland and Northern Ireland. There's also no requirement to have a passport for travel between Northern Ireland and mainland UK, and a quick Google shows that no more than occasional spot checks of photo ID are conducted for ferries arriving from N.I. Please do your own research if you have any doubts about this - everything can be confirmed in under 5 minutes.)

You do know that Ireland is not a signatory to the Schengen Agreement?

Therefore movement is not as free as you are trying to suggest, especially for illegal immigrants - which is what gives most people cause for concern.

Personally, I don't see a problem in putting the border back.

Wasn't it nice to see John Major & Tony Blair holding hands & supporting 'remain' in the Londonderry sunshine?

Major, the man who took us into the ERM &, apparently, was later humiliated in withdrawal.
Blair, the man who took us to war into Iraq & Afghanistan & wanted us to join the single currency.

With friends like that....

 

[Edwin]

This is an interesting read

View attachment 1173

I wonder if his comments are motivated, even partially, by the £22,000,000 fine that the EU hit JCB with back in 2000 under his Chairmanship?
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-00-1526_en.htm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/dec/22/6

JCB battled the decision for 6 years, but ultimately lost and had to pay up.

There's been much discussion already about the "vested interests" in the Remain camp. Well, here's one very clear example of a "vested interest" the other way.

 

[RobM]

It's really all one market - if odds diverge too much between betfair and the bookies then arbitrage traders will quickly bring them back into line. Plenty of bookies and professionals use Betfair. It takes a very large number of ordinary punters to move the odds set by the professionals on a market with this much liquidity

I'm talking about betfair exchange where the odds are agreed by buyer and seller. Yes most bookies use it to lay off or place against their own take (I have helped many here such as Betsson, Betclick, etc to do it). However with this high amount of money placed it's not about the odds being moved it's about how the market is perceived.

 

[RobM]

I had the same reaction at seeing Tony Blair as many people probably do with seeing Nigel Farage. The minute Mr Blair put forward his opinion I knew everyone should do the opposite

 

[gimpydog]

Well, here's one very clear example of a "vested interest" the other way.

No it isn't.

He won't be getting the money back if we leave.

 

[gimpydog]

I had the same reaction at seeing Tony Blair as many people probably do with seeing Nigel Farage.

Always good value

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[Edwin]

I had the same reaction at seeing Tony Blair as many people probably do with seeing Nigel Farage. The minute Mr Blair put forward his opinion I knew everyone should do the opposite

I dislike Blair, but seeing him in Northern Ireland reminded me that he was in power when the Good Friday Agreement was signed. Of course the wheels were already in motion long before he became PM, but he kept the peace process going and saw it through to a successful conclusion.

It's just too simplistic to say that a prime minister (ANY prime minister, regardless of party) is incapable of achieving something good. It's certainly possible that they're remembered more for the bad** stuff than the good (and that the bad "outweighs" the good from a moral/ethical/whatever stance) - but that doesn't in itself magic away the good.

And peace in Northern Ireland is good.

(**The Chilcott Report, when it's published next month, may finally mean that he gets his comeuppance for that)

 

[Edwin]

Always good value

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Ah, the always reliable Nigel Farage

Good for a soundbite, bad for actually turning up to do his job (he's 747th out of 789 MEPs for turning up to vote on EU matters)
http://www.votewatch.eu/en/term8-nigel-farage-2.html

 

[martin-s]

The £22m JCB fine is a tough one. Basically the judgement was that JCB's dealership network within the EU were effectively barred from making sales outside of their territory.

In a franchise business, you'd expect to be barred from making sales outside of your territory - you'd normally be forced to pass the lead to your co-franchisee. I don't know whether the dealerships here are franchisees, group-owned or private?

The EU intervened (interfered?) in order to level the playing field across the EU territory.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I wonder if his comments are motivated, even partially, by the £22,000,000 fine that the EU hit JCB with back in 2000 under his Chairmanship?
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-00-1526_en.htm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/dec/22/6

JCB battled the decision for 6 years, but ultimately lost and had to pay up.

There's been much discussion already about the "vested interests" in the Remain camp. Well, here's one very clear example of a "vested interest" the other way.

I'm bloody sure it's part of his reasoning Edwin! If you see something as unjust, it's bound to...that's part of how opinions are formed.

 

[Bailey]

Two Weeks to E-Day, Being retired I'll probably spend the Afternoon/evening down the Pub, Does anybody know the 'Expected' Time-Frame for the results ?

 

[Edwin]

Two Weeks to E-Day, Being retired I'll probably spend the Afternoon/evening down the Pub, Does anybody know the 'Expected' Time-Frame for the results ?

The count will start at 10pm, and the three hundred and something areas will all declare their results individually (I'm guessing once they've finished and verified the count, rather than all together)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34800713
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite...ship_referendum,_2016#Voting_areas_and_counts