EU Referendum

[bonusmedia]

I think betfair is a good indicator because the odds are laid/placed by the people - not the bookies. Basically they just reflect the betting pattern and when I looked yesterday 21 million pounds had been applied with odds for remain at 1.34 (about 1/3). As betfair take 5% off the winning bet on either side their is no vested interest. That is the amount placed since betting began on that option.

It's really all one market - if odds diverge too much between betfair and the bookies then arbitrage traders will quickly bring them back into line. Plenty of bookies and professionals use Betfair. It takes a very large number of ordinary punters to move the odds set by the professionals on a market with this much liquidity

 

[gimpydog]

Here's something from the BBC live feed...



Her statement is misleading on a number of levels.
1) The problem is not solely the common travel area between the UK and Ireland, it's also the freedom of movement area between Ireland and all other EU states (since anyone wanting to get into the UK can go via Ireland->N.I.->Rest of UK without being subject to the same level of scrutiny as they would face coming through a port/airport in mainland UK) The two issues go hand in hand, and can't be separated. Unless Ireland gives up its own freedom of movement, the flow I just described will remain open to people.

2) The old free movement areas pre-EU were much, much smaller than they are now, encompassing fewer countries, so for example there was no route such as the ones the refugees are taking now that passed solely through "free movement" countries back in those days. In other words, the world has changed too much in the interim for her throw-back to the past to be meaningful as a comparison.

If you're in favour of Leave, how would you see the Ireland/Northern Ireland border problem resolved? Do you feel that re-establishing border posts there is a worthwhile price to pay?

(BTW, what I posted above about a possible route for people to get into the UK is factual based on the current situation, not simply my opinion. There's no border check between Ireland and Northern Ireland. There's also no requirement to have a passport for travel between Northern Ireland and mainland UK, and a quick Google shows that no more than occasional spot checks of photo ID are conducted for ferries arriving from N.I. Please do your own research if you have any doubts about this - everything can be confirmed in under 5 minutes.)

You do know that Ireland is not a signatory to the Schengen Agreement?

Therefore movement is not as free as you are trying to suggest, especially for illegal immigrants - which is what gives most people cause for concern.

Personally, I don't see a problem in putting the border back.

Wasn't it nice to see John Major & Tony Blair holding hands & supporting 'remain' in the Londonderry sunshine?

Major, the man who took us into the ERM &, apparently, was later humiliated in withdrawal.
Blair, the man who took us to war into Iraq & Afghanistan & wanted us to join the single currency.

With friends like that....

 

[Edwin]

This is an interesting read

View attachment 1173

I wonder if his comments are motivated, even partially, by the £22,000,000 fine that the EU hit JCB with back in 2000 under his Chairmanship?
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-00-1526_en.htm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/dec/22/6

JCB battled the decision for 6 years, but ultimately lost and had to pay up.

There's been much discussion already about the "vested interests" in the Remain camp. Well, here's one very clear example of a "vested interest" the other way.

 

[RobM]

It's really all one market - if odds diverge too much between betfair and the bookies then arbitrage traders will quickly bring them back into line. Plenty of bookies and professionals use Betfair. It takes a very large number of ordinary punters to move the odds set by the professionals on a market with this much liquidity

I'm talking about betfair exchange where the odds are agreed by buyer and seller. Yes most bookies use it to lay off or place against their own take (I have helped many here such as Betsson, Betclick, etc to do it). However with this high amount of money placed it's not about the odds being moved it's about how the market is perceived.

 

[RobM]

I had the same reaction at seeing Tony Blair as many people probably do with seeing Nigel Farage. The minute Mr Blair put forward his opinion I knew everyone should do the opposite

 

[gimpydog]

Well, here's one very clear example of a "vested interest" the other way.

No it isn't.

He won't be getting the money back if we leave.

 

[gimpydog]

I had the same reaction at seeing Tony Blair as many people probably do with seeing Nigel Farage.

Always good value

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[Edwin]

I had the same reaction at seeing Tony Blair as many people probably do with seeing Nigel Farage. The minute Mr Blair put forward his opinion I knew everyone should do the opposite

I dislike Blair, but seeing him in Northern Ireland reminded me that he was in power when the Good Friday Agreement was signed. Of course the wheels were already in motion long before he became PM, but he kept the peace process going and saw it through to a successful conclusion.

It's just too simplistic to say that a prime minister (ANY prime minister, regardless of party) is incapable of achieving something good. It's certainly possible that they're remembered more for the bad** stuff than the good (and that the bad "outweighs" the good from a moral/ethical/whatever stance) - but that doesn't in itself magic away the good.

And peace in Northern Ireland is good.

(**The Chilcott Report, when it's published next month, may finally mean that he gets his comeuppance for that)

 

[Edwin]

Always good value

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Ah, the always reliable Nigel Farage

Good for a soundbite, bad for actually turning up to do his job (he's 747th out of 789 MEPs for turning up to vote on EU matters)
http://www.votewatch.eu/en/term8-nigel-farage-2.html

 

[martin-s]

The £22m JCB fine is a tough one. Basically the judgement was that JCB's dealership network within the EU were effectively barred from making sales outside of their territory.

In a franchise business, you'd expect to be barred from making sales outside of your territory - you'd normally be forced to pass the lead to your co-franchisee. I don't know whether the dealerships here are franchisees, group-owned or private?

The EU intervened (interfered?) in order to level the playing field across the EU territory.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I wonder if his comments are motivated, even partially, by the £22,000,000 fine that the EU hit JCB with back in 2000 under his Chairmanship?
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-00-1526_en.htm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/dec/22/6

JCB battled the decision for 6 years, but ultimately lost and had to pay up.

There's been much discussion already about the "vested interests" in the Remain camp. Well, here's one very clear example of a "vested interest" the other way.

I'm bloody sure it's part of his reasoning Edwin! If you see something as unjust, it's bound to...that's part of how opinions are formed.

 

[Bailey]

Two Weeks to E-Day, Being retired I'll probably spend the Afternoon/evening down the Pub, Does anybody know the 'Expected' Time-Frame for the results ?

 

[Edwin]

Two Weeks to E-Day, Being retired I'll probably spend the Afternoon/evening down the Pub, Does anybody know the 'Expected' Time-Frame for the results ?

The count will start at 10pm, and the three hundred and something areas will all declare their results individually (I'm guessing once they've finished and verified the count, rather than all together)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34800713
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite...ship_referendum,_2016#Voting_areas_and_counts

 

[Bailey]

The count will start at 10pm, and the three hundred and something areas will all declare their results individually (I'm guessing once they've finished and verified the count, rather than all together)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34800713
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite...ship_referendum,_2016#Voting_areas_and_counts

Cheers Edwin - So just like a General election night then. Including the race to be the first to declare, This should keep a few of us up all night then. I Wonder if we'll end-up with our own internal Boarder animosity County A says yes, County B says No by a Big Margin, War of the Roses revisited Perhaps we could even Petition for County Independence afterwards, then Kent and Sussex get to Keep all the 'illegals'

 

[Edwin]

Cheers Edwin - So just like a General election night then. Including the race to be the first to declare, This should keep a few of us up all night then. I Wonder if we'll end-up with our own internal Boarder animosity County A says yes, County B says No by a Big Margin, War of the Roses revisited Perhaps we could even Petition for County Independence afterwards

I think there might be a certain amount of that, especially if the breakdown of the vote turns out to be enormously different in different parts of the country. Another reason to hope for an overwhelming result for one side or the other!

 

[Edwin]

A "real" debate (3 vs 3) on ITV right now. A full two hours of battle...

 

[Edwin]

A "real" debate (3 vs 3) on ITV right now. A full two hours of battle...

BTW it looks like there will be real fireworks!

 

[denchomsky]

I still think one of the most telling questions is, If the vote was to join the EU on the 23rd (with no reforms, exactly how it is) would the remainers vote to join?
In this scenario we don't have open borders with EU countries,our economy is pretty stable and we don't need bailing out.

 

[bonusmedia]

I still think one of the most telling questions is, If the vote was to join the EU on the 23rd (with no reforms, exactly how it is) would the remainers vote to join?
In this scenario we don't have open borders with EU countries,our economy is pretty stable and we don't need bailing out.

Gain tariff-free access to the largest free market in the world? Sign me up. Can I have extra hard-working free-thinking immigrants on that please boss?

 

[RobM]

I was actually watching 'remain' videos on youtube. Unfortunately there was a lot of different people with 4-6 min snippets. It's almost as if they couldn't make a 90 min documentary about the benefits.... by the way - don't believe me? just type 'britain remain eu' and 'britain leave eu' in google