EU Referendum

[martin-s]

Why is it therefore so hard to grasp what would happen to trade and tariffs if the UK leaves the EU (one set of clearly defined rules) and enters the "not EU" (another set of clearly defined rules)

It's not hard to grasp, but it's a reflection of the world as it is now, not the world as it would be after a negotiated Brexit. Have a bit of imagination Edwin

Or, a negotiated remain having had a Brexit vote raise EU-wide concerns about what a UK-less Europe might look like.

 

[martin-s]

UK motor vehicle imports from the EU have grown from £14.3 billion to £31.3 billion between 1998 and 2014.

Source: http://webarchive.nationalarchives....l-business-survey/car-production/sty-car.html

One would assume they were a massive proportion of the £60+ billion trade deficit then. So probably quite a relevant example to work through.

Edit: Exports to EU countries have grown from £8.0 billion to £11.9 billion over the same period

So at a mutual 10% tariff, that's a £1.94 billion negotiation tactic right there.

 

[websaway]

The tariff regime already exists. The EU already has known processes for trading with non-EU countries.

Why is it therefore so hard to grasp what would happen to trade and tariffs if the UK leaves the EU (one set of clearly defined rules) and enters the "not EU" (another set of clearly defined rules)

Are you under the illusion that if we leave the EU the EU won't change. Are you suggesting that it's Mafioso attitude can survive if we leave. There were stringent rules on movement of people but it didn't stop countries closing their borders. How many times have Greece had to be bailed out before default. What's happening in Holland.

 

[gimpydog]

At the moment, tariffs within the EU are zero for most things. If the UK leaves it will no longer benefit from that zero tariff regime.

In all likelihood, the EU will charge a 10% tariff on stuff from the UK since it will move from the "in the EU" column to the "out of the EU" column and therefore a different tariff rate automatically applies. Some types of product or service may incur tariffs much higher than 10% - again, the processes are already in place and apply to hundreds of countries (they'll simply apply to one more if the UK leaves)

In two paragraphs you have gone from "it will no longer benefit" to "In all likelihood" to "automatically applies" to "may incur tariffs" Why don't you admit that you don't know & are just speculating?

Similarly, the UK will charge a tariff on exports.

Why? Because you think so?

This will make the UK's exports more expensive and therefore less competitive with EU producers

Hang on a moment...isn't the pound about to collapse? Won't that make the UK's exports much cheaper & much more competitive?

and it will make everything the UK imports from the EU more expensive (helping local UK producers, but in many instances there are no suitable UK alternatives since the industries in question have pretty much died out)

But it will also mean we will be able to import cheaper food from Africa & South America tariff-free and cars from Asia tariff-free & EU firms will be incentivised to move production of their cars, or widgets into the UK - as was the case with Nissan & Honda, for example.

Here's an opinion from someone well qualified to offer one...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ut-britains-trade-outside-the-european-union/

 

[Edwin]

I wrote "in all likelihood" because the exit process itself would take two years, and during that time it's safe to expect that Britain would be able to conclude some free trade deals. So tariffs wouldn't actually apply to everything, but only to those goods/services for which free trade agreements hadn't been concluded in time.

 

[Edwin]

Hang on a moment...isn't the pound about to collapse? Won't that make the UK's exports much cheaper & much more competitive?

It doesn't actually work like that since you're playing one negative scenario off another without following the logic all the way to the end.

If you accept the notion that the pound would collapse, then yes, the UK's exports would be cheaper. At the same time, given the UK has a record trade deficit with the EU and therefore buys much more from them more than they buy from us, the collapse of the pound would hurt the UK economy since it would take a lot more pounds to pay for the stuff we buy from the EU.

 

[Edwin]

Are you under the illusion that if we leave the EU the EU won't change.

Are you under the illusion that if we stay in the EU the EU won't change?

 

[RobM]

Are you under the illusion that if we stay in the EU the EU won't change?

Has it in the past?

 

[denchomsky]

I'm out. This is a once in a life time opportunity. Instead of fearing change we should embrace it.

Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.
- George Bernard Shaw

 

[Edwin]

Has it in the past?

Yes. All the time. Surely you're not really claiming that the same rules, laws and regulations apply in the EU today as they did a decade or two ago? There have been numerous treaty amendmends, new trade agreements and agreement changes, etc. EU legislation and regulations evolve constantly as well.

See for example the table in the following article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaties_of_the_European_Union

 

[Edwin]

BTW, I'd like to come back to something I posted earlier in this mega-thread: I have zero expectation of changing the opinion of anyone who's already firmly in the Leave camp.

All I'm trying to do is make as much information as possible available to those who've yet to make up their minds.

 

[RobM]

Yes. All the time. Surely you're not really claiming that the same rules, laws and regulations apply in the EU today as they did a decade or two ago? There have been numerous treaty amendmends, new trade agreements and agreement changes, etc. EU legislation and regulations evolve constantly as well.

See for example the table in the following article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaties_of_the_European_Union

Lol all the time! - you must have a different understanding of time than me. That table says it all. Interestingly enough how many of those million changes went against the UK's vote/opinion? Obviously after UK opts to remain in the EU Europe will change everything that's wrong for UK and make it all perfect. They've proven this apparently in the past.

 

[Edwin]

Obviously after UK opts to remain in the EU Europe will change everything that's wrong for UK and make it all perfect. They've proven this apparently in the past.

Nobody on this thread, nor anyone in the media in the "wider world" has claimed that a "Remain" would fix "everything that's wrong" with the EU. So why resort to a straw man argument?

 

[websaway]

Are you under the illusion that if we stay in the EU the EU won't change?

Yes, it's not an illusion though. If we stay the EU will not change to benefit us, it will keep reeling us in and eroding our sovereignty. And Merkels days are numbered, what will it look like when she's gone ?

 

[RobM]

Nobody on this thread, nor anyone in the media in the "wider world" has claimed that a "Remain" would fix "everything that's wrong" with the EU. So why resort to a straw man argument?

Because somehow you've turned to suggesting the EU may change after a remain vote. Just building an argument out of what you're clutching at.

 

[websaway]

BTW, I'd like to come back to something I posted earlier in this mega-thread: I have zero expectation of changing the opinion of anyone who's already firmly in the Leave camp.

All I'm trying to do is make as much information as possible available to those who've yet to make up their minds.

Well get started then, all your info is biased, student union stuff, it's mostly conjecture and very little information about the facts of immigration, law and sovereignty.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics"
is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments.

 

[ian]

Wow, what did I start! Really interesting hearing different points of view; clearly a wealth of information out there. My vote has been cast, we'll see what happens. Interesting times ahead.

 

[RobM]

Just found an interesting line from Wikipedia (yes we know it's not a source of facts):

'Between 2008 and 2012 Malta received, on average, the highest number of asylum seekers compared to its national population: 21.7 applicants per 1,000 inhabitants.[13] In 2011, most of these asylum applications were submitted by nationals of Somalia, Nigeria, Eritrea and Syria.[14] In 2012, more than half of the requests were by Somalian nationals alone
As a member of the European Union and of the Schengen agreement, Malta is bound by the Dublin Regulation to process all claims for asylum by those asylum seekers that enter EU territory for the first time in Malta'

We still have a massive overpopulation and immigration problem. Now before you get all excited yes these people are NOT from EU countries (although we'll probably get a few thousand when Turkey joins even though we only have a population of 400,000) but note that we ARE told by Europe what we can do with them. We've been told where to hold them, how many we can send to other countries, and how many we have to house. This is not conjecture it has happened and is continuing to happen. If we had a vote here I suspect most people would vote out for exactly the same reason that some people in UK have been claiming doesn't happen.

 

[websaway]

Does anyone think the way things are developing that Brussels will be in a position to just carry on business as normal on June 24 if we vote out. If we go then Holland and Denmark will want a referendum. Merkel will simply not be able to defend her policy of building the EU population by the sudden mass importation of middle east cultures. The EU will be in crises not the UK as predicted by the bodies of self interested EU prop up merchants. Why do you think the establishment is desperate to stay in, not in the interests of the UK but in the interests of the EU.
Have a look at the security necessary for the Euro's soccer tournament. It's like a war zone. We are at war with ISIS and instead of defending our borders as is normal in times of war, we let them roam freely around Europe. How long are the people of France and Germany or Greece and Spain who's tourist economies have been devastated by ISIS attacks, going to put up with a united states of Europe where we share our terrorists. BTW has anyone thought how Turkey will react when they hear that Cameron has said they can't join until 3000, or when they get in will he say he was joking like all the other lies he's spinning.

 

[Edwin]

This could be fun (the precursor, "Ballot Monkeys", was good in the run-up to the last election)
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/power-monkeys