EU Referendum

[Bailey]

I agree. Think it could be 60 / 40 in the end.

That is my initial belief also, But, I toned it down, Given The turnout for the 'No Change'' (as A percentage of Voters) are more likely Not to bother Voting - feeling like 'Piggy-In-The-Middle' Whereas the 'Leave' is going to be out in force, without a doubt

 

[martin-s]

Interested to explore this whole "stronger voice inside" theory. Let's see some concrete examples of where our strong voice has shaped EU policy in a sensible direction.

The only examples I can think of is where we have "won" the least-worst option after peeing off everyone else in Europe by threatening to veto. Again.

 

[Toonz]

http://www.britishinfluence.org/how_influential_is_the_uk_on_eu_financial_legislation

That site in general seems to deal with the question you ask, though I've not yet gone through it myself.

 

[AlistairM]

It's a pity you're unwilling to make your mind up rather than rely on somebody else's poor summary to form your opinion of said piece, since that's not what the writer was saying.

I believe that if I'm reading your quote correctly that I started reading the article and expressed my view before the somebody that I think you're referring to gave their summary. I might be wrong though.

I agree. Think it could be 60 / 40 in the end.

That's about as realistic as the figures David Cameron and George Osborne come out with.

 

[signature]

Our PM just quote car industry, we will be paying 10% import tax like America if we are out of EU. American cars are still cheaper than the cars we produce here at the moment.
On another note, not sure if any car manufacturing is still British owned, not sure about this but:
Jaguar, Austin Martin, Land Rover, Bentley, Rolls Royce, Rover, mini, all now owned by foreign companies.
Our VAT is probably what is making our products cost a lot more here than other countries.

Farage and Cameron just rant about the same thing, nothing knew.

 

[AlistairM]

Cameron gets on my tits. With virtually every question he had he gave an answer and then started giving the same little speech about bad for jobs, economy etc. He's more wooden than Keanu Reeves

 

[martin-s]

Our PM just quote car industry, we will be paying 10% import tax like America if we are out of EU.

The thing about tariffs is that they go both ways. If the EU puts a tariff on UK-made cars, why wouldn't the UK do the same with German, French and Italian ones?

VW, BMW, Audi, Mini, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Volvo, Seat, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault, Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Skoda, Dacia, Smart, etc.

And do tariffs apply based on where cars were manufactured, or where the parent brand is from?

EU: "No, I quite understand. Let's not add the tariff after all."

 

[websaway]

It looks now that it's coming down to .. do we want to govern ourselves through a democratically elected parliament or do we want to be increasingly governed by an unelected Brussels ?


Vice President Lyndon Johnson received the following message from a Native American Indian Chief on a reservation:
"Be careful with your immigration laws. We were careless with ours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...ting-Islamists-threaten-British-freedoms.html

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050/13690

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...gregation-are-about-economics-not-values.html

 

[martin-s]

EU popularity declining across Europe...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ts-euroscepticism-on-the-rise-all-across-eur/

 

[martin-s]

Interesting that our trade deficit (that is, the amount more that we import from them than we sell to them) grew to £61.6 billion in 2014. This is at a record level - but we've run a deficit every year for the past 15.

But they'll still put up their barriers instead of trading with us, right?

 

[monaghan]

But they'll still put up their barriers instead of trading with us, right?

This is the bit I just don't understand, I will still need to sell my widgets and my current customers have chosen my company to supply them as I offer the best fit value / quality balance, surely nobody is going to buy my widgets on 23rd and then stop on the 24th? I'm not going to be stopped from buying the EU sourced components for my widgets on the 24th am I? I can understand that potentially at the end of my existing sales & purchase contracts I'm going to have to renegotiate with my suppliers / customers, but that would happen anyway as part of the normal contractual process.

Will we be seeing signs in the supermarket saying "Sorry no oranges today, Europe have stopped selling them to the UK"

 

[Edwin]

Trade tariffs are complicated, and it is the legal responsibility of importers and exporters to apply the right tariff to each transaction.

Here's more background than you could possibly want
https://www.gov.uk/trade-tariff/sections

At the moment, tariffs within the EU are zero for most things. If the UK leaves it will no longer benefit from that zero tariff regime.

In all likelihood, the EU will charge a 10% tariff on stuff from the UK since it will move from the "in the EU" column to the "out of the EU" column and therefore a different tariff rate automatically applies. Some types of product or service may incur tariffs much higher than 10% - again, the processes are already in place and apply to hundreds of countries (they'll simply apply to one more if the UK leaves)

Similarly, the UK will charge a tariff on exports.

This will make the UK's exports more expensive and therefore less competitive with EU producers, and it will make everything the UK imports from the EU more expensive (helping local UK producers, but in many instances there are no suitable UK alternatives since the industries in question have pretty much died out)

All this can be changed post-facto through negotiation, but that's on a product by product, industry by industry basis.

 

[BeachLife]

Interesting that our trade deficit (that is, the amount more that we import from them than we sell to them) grew to £61.6 billion in 2014. This is at a record level - but we've run a deficit every year for the past 15.

But they'll still put up their barriers instead of trading with us, right?

I don't think it is as simple as that. There will need to be new trade deals drawn up, which may or may not include tariffs, duties and/or import quotas. Depending upon whether the EU wants to protect manufacturers/producers from within the EU.

As a very general example (which may not even be correct in its details), there is currently a 10% import duty on cars made outside of the EU. So, if this were to remain, whilst UK manufactured cars will still be welcomed in the EU, they will be more expensive. So the next time Nissan or Ford look where to invest in a new production line for cars selling within the EU, it may not be here!

my current customers have chosen my company to supply them as I offer the best fit value / quality balance, surely nobody is going to buy my widgets on 23rd and then stop on the 24th?

Not on the 24th, but after the trade deals have been renegotiated (and there are many saying the UK will have to renegotiate with the entire world, not just the EU), you may find that the customers no longer think you offer the best fit value / quality. There may be tariffs on your product, or import licences required.

 

[martin-s]

As a very general example (which may not even be correct in its details), there is currently a 10% import duty on cars made outside of the EU. So, if this were to remain, whilst UK manufactured cars will still be welcomed in the EU, they will be more expensive.

I think my previous answer illustrates why this is nonsense. Germany, the biggest voice in the EU, has a manufacturing led economy, much of which is automotive. They sell a huge number of cars into the UK and wouldn't risk damaging that by making their own exports more expensive.

The simple fact that we import more than we sell should mean that we have a strong hand to play in negotiations.

It is true that we don't produce everything we need in this country, but the EU isn't the only alternative market. If the EU tariffs were uneconomical, we'd simply source things from elsewhere in the world. The EU understand this and while they would likely introduce some tariffs, they are not likely to be uneconomical or a barrier to existing trade.

Emotionally, it hard to give up on income you already have.

 

[BeachLife]

I think my previous answer illustrates why this is nonsense. Germany, the biggest voice in the EU, has a manufacturing led economy, much of which is automotive. They sell a huge number of cars into the UK and wouldn't risk damaging that by making their own exports more expensive.

Again, I don't think it is that straightforward. It is up to us as to whether we try to impose a tariff on imports, in negotiation with them. As they already have a 10% import duty on non EU cars, would they agree to a tariff free deal just with the UK?

A quick look indicates that Germany produced around 5.7m cars in 2015, and 800,000 odd were exported to the UK. The UK produced around 1.6m cars, and 700k were exported to the EU. So we are 20% of their market, they are over 50% of ours (of course that is just Germany, not the EU as a whole) We are no longer a major powerhouse in anything really.

Does that sound like a strong hand? If there is a 10% duty on both sides, some of the 20% that they export to us could be hit, but as they are premium makers who compete with each other, maybe not too much of a hit. The latest BMW/Audi/Porsche/VW would all be 12% more expensive. However over 50% of our car production, which tends to be in less premium brands (think Ford, Nissan, Toyota etc, not the niche manufacturers) is at risk of decreased competition. Do you not think Toyota will think hard about whether to continuing investing in the UK with the uncertainty whilst these deals are being renegotiated? Perhaps the EU would realise that this major investment could be diverted into the EU in the future, by retaining the 10% import duty?

Here is a document by the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders, they were worrying about this 2 years ago!

There are many examples of the above, where major international companies invest in the UK, as a result of it giving them access to EU markets (and the trade deals that exist between the EU and others), and benefiting from employee mobility across the EU, particularly in finance.

If nothing else, it should seem natural to assume that the EU's bargaining powers are higher that ours alone would be? There are many international trade deals still being negotiated by the EU.

There are some Brexit voices saying we can go entirely duty free of course, which is an interesting approach, only currently used by Hong Kong and Macau. However, WTO rules state that you cannot be selective about it, so we would have no protection for our agriculture or steel industries for example.

 

[websaway]

Trade tariffs are complicated, and it is the legal responsibility of importers and exporters to apply the right tariff to each transaction.

Here's more background than you could possibly want
https://www.gov.uk/trade-tariff/sections

At the moment, tariffs within the EU are zero for most things. If the UK leaves it will no longer benefit from that zero tariff regime.

In all likelihood, the EU will charge a 10% tariff on stuff from the UK since it will move from the "in the EU" column to the "out of the EU" column and therefore a different tariff rate automatically applies. Some types of product or service may incur tariffs much higher than 10% - again, the processes are already in place and apply to hundreds of countries (they'll simply apply to one more if the UK leaves)

Similarly, the UK will charge a tariff on exports.

This will make the UK's exports more expensive and therefore less competitive with EU producers, and it will make everything the UK imports from the EU more expensive (helping local UK producers, but in many instances there are no suitable UK alternatives since the industries in question have pretty much died out)

All this can be changed post-facto through negotiation, but that's on a product by product, industry by industry basis.

They said all this about the Euro Zone . If we didn't join the Euro every financial institution would vacate the capital, our businesses would lose out on trade.

 

[websaway]

I don't think it is as simple as that. There will need to be new trade deals drawn up, which may or may not include tariffs, duties and/or import quotas. Depending upon whether the EU wants to protect manufacturers/producers from within the EU.

As a very general example (which may not even be correct in its details), there is currently a 10% import duty on cars made outside of the EU. So, if this were to remain, whilst UK manufactured cars will still be welcomed in the EU, they will be more expensive. So the next time Nissan or Ford look where to invest in a new production line for cars selling within the EU, it may not be here!



Not on the 24th, but after the trade deals have been renegotiated (and there are many saying the UK will have to renegotiate with the entire world, not just the EU), you may find that the customers no longer think you offer the best fit value / quality. There may be tariffs on your product, or import licences required.

There may be, there may be , there may be, but there may not be because we really don't know.

 

[websaway]

2002 if you don't join the Euro Zone you are dead in the water.
2009 thank god we did not join the Euro Zone.
Farage told us yesterday that the establishment are all saying stay.
Ex establishment who can speak honestly are less sure.

 

[Edwin]

The tariff regime already exists. The EU already has known processes for trading with non-EU countries.

Why is it therefore so hard to grasp what would happen to trade and tariffs if the UK leaves the EU (one set of clearly defined rules) and enters the "not EU" (another set of clearly defined rules)

 

[martin-s]

A quick look indicates that Germany produced around 5.7m cars in 2015, and 800,000 odd were exported to the UK. The UK produced around 1.6m cars, and 700k were exported to the EU.

A net deficit of 100,000 cars, just on Germany's stats. What about France, Italy and Spain?

We are a big market for them - why would they make it harder to sell their own products to us?

20% vs 50% market share doesn't matter a damn. You negotiate based on the bottom line numbers. They have more to lose in car sales than we do.

Plus, German car reliability has taken a real hit in recent years. Is now really the time to make them even more reassuringly expensive? JD Power stats have BMW and VW looking pretty average - and my experience owning both of those bears that out.

And let's not mention the VAG group diesel scandal!