EU Referendum

[websaway]

The problem in this case is that the majority of us no not know sufficient to know which are real experts and which are making it up combine that with the distrust of politicians and in reality nobody really knows the detail of what is happening and therefore will believe the message that most appeals to their own prejudices rather than making a decision on actual facts.

If one "expert" says we're better leaving and another "expert" says we're better off staying then how is the man in the street expected to know who is right?

An expert is often someone who is good at passing exams and gets a degree in economics. In the real financial world they don't know their r's from their elbow but certainly know how to explain why they did not really get it wrong after the event.

 

[disruptive]

All economists predictions are only as good as the assumptions they use. Given the fact that one can get to many varied outcomes with different assumptions, that leaves these professionals open to how they ascertain their assumptions in the first place and therefore what "camp" they come from in the first place.

 

[bonusmedia]

It's sickening how certain areas claim the pound movement is an indicator of how things will be *after* the vote. It's clearly a period of indecision tending towards the positive.

I agree that the reporting of this has been misleading.

It's certainly volatile but a trend towards the positive could simply be interpreted as the market viewing Brexit as unlikely. Remember the bookies odds are still fairly strongly in favour of Remain, despite the vast majority of bets being for Brexit for the last several weeks. That suggests the big/smart money is on Remain.

For example, HSBC have modelled a 20% fall in GBP against USD on Brexit - they are not alone.
Hedge funds are doing their own polls and are fairly highly skilled at analysing risk.

I'd suggest that if polls continue this trend, GBP will fall in the run-up to the vote, since the potential downside looks greater than the potential upside.

 

[bonusmedia]

An expert is often someone who is good at passing exams and gets a degree in economics. In the real financial world they don't know their r's from their elbow but certainly know how to explain why they did not really get it wrong after the event.

That's not really fair. There were obviously some major failings (largely down to poor regulation) but that doesn't mean the entire sector are idiots.

We have the biggest financial centre in the world and financial services are a massive part of our economy. The vast majority of people in finance are conscientious and hard working. Finance makes the world go round - you probably wouldn't own a house without it. Many of the brightest people we have are in economics.

You don't seem to mind experts who agree with you...

 

[Edwin]

Very last reminder: deadline to register to vote is TONIGHT.
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

 

[Edwin]

This referendum campaign is full of surprises. Polly Toynbee has written an article that I agree with (from memory, that's the first time ever!)
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/07/brexiters-leave-remain-labour

 

[RobM]

I agree that the reporting of this has been misleading.

It's certainly volatile but a trend towards the positive could simply be interpreted as the market viewing Brexit as unlikely. Remember the bookies odds are still fairly strongly in favour of Remain, despite the vast majority of bets being for Brexit for the last several weeks. That suggests the big/smart money is on Remain.

For example, HSBC have modelled a 20% fall in GBP against USD on Brexit - they are not alone.
Hedge funds are doing their own polls and are fairly highly skilled at analysing risk.

I'd suggest that if polls continue this trend, GBP will fall in the run-up to the vote, since the potential downside looks greater than the potential upside.

Agreed. So the *current* strength and *previous* strengths have no bearing on the *future* strength. So why does the media only portray this as important when it backs up their stance but ignore it when it doesn't? That's what's sickening.

 

[websaway]

True. But when several hundred experts (economists) fall into the Remain camp, and 8 put their name to a letter supporting Leave, there's a dominance of opinion that would on the face of it seem hard to deny.

Unless you look at self interest and mostly who's paying the piper.

 

[websaway]

That's not really fair. There were obviously some major failings (largely down to poor regulation) but that doesn't mean the entire sector are idiots.

We have the biggest financial centre in the world and financial services are a massive part of our economy. The vast majority of people in finance are conscientious and hard working. Finance makes the world go round - you probably wouldn't own a house without it. Many of the brightest people we have are in economics.

You don't seem to mind experts who agree with you...

Touche

 

[Edwin]

On the economics front, it's worth noting that comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis are potentially misleading because there's a world of difference between something triggered by dodgy dealings in the back rooms of large banks and a referendum that is happening on a specific, known-in-advance date and is therefore much more readily predictable.

In other words, economists don't have to simulate some vague future "thing" but a very specific scenario happening on a particular day.

 

[websaway]

I don't mind a multicultural society. I certainly like foreign people. But I would rather be poor than be a minority in my own country.

 

[Edwin]

I don't mind a multicultural society. I certainly like foreign people. But I would rather be poor than be a minority in my own country.

For clarity, does that mean you've accepted the overwhelming number of predictions that suggest Britain will be poorer post-Brexit? But for you, other considerations trump that?

 

[websaway]

For clarity, does that mean you've accepted the overwhelming number of predictions that suggest Britain will be poorer post-Brexit? But for you, other considerations trump that?

I think the predictions are overwhelmingly motivated by self interest and that self interest ignores the realities of immigration and national sovereignty. But that is human nature, especially where money and position are concerned. And what exactly do you mean by Britain will be poorer, what value do you place on freedom.

 

[AlistairM]

This referendum campaign is full of surprises. Polly Toynbee has written an article that I agree with (from memory, that's the first time ever!)
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/07/brexiters-leave-remain-labour

I stopped reading that as soon as the word "xenophobia" was mentioned.

 

[websaway]

This referendum campaign is full of surprises. Polly Toynbee has written an article that I agree with (from memory, that's the first time ever!)
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/07/brexiters-leave-remain-labour

She says she resents scare stories and lies, yet says the pound plummeted, did I miss something, when did the pound plummet.

She also points out the benefits of staying as being The long list of environmental and working rights will chill your marrow. Away go rights for agency workers, waste management, water quality, sex discrimination, nitrate pollution, air quality, asbestos, pesticides, road vehicle testing, food flavouring, farm animal welfare and scores more. Imagine a bonfire of all that?
The mind boggles.

 

[newguy]

-

 

[Edwin]

When you talk of being a minority are you talking about the foreign born population? If so that's about 12-13% I think.

That figure looks spot on. In 2014, 56.2 million people across the UK (87.2 per cent) were White British.
http://www.irr.org.uk/research/statistics/ethnicity-and-religion/

 

[martin-s]

The trouble with financial stories is that they tend to be self-fulfilling.

If you say that the pound is going to struggling, more people are wary of investing and the price drops.

If you say shares in a company are overpriced, more people sell to cut their losses and the price drops.

Commentary is part of the 24-hour news lives that we live nowadays, but predicting the future is a fool's errand.

 

[AssetDomains]

I stopped reading that as soon as the word "xenophobia" was mentioned.

Why because a lot of leavers seem to be just blatantly ignore the facts on the Economy are happy to spout untruths about the NHS and terrorism and bent bananas. From what I can make out there are some leavers who simply want out for xenophobic reasons they would rather given the choice there neighbour not to have a Brown face. Pray to Allah or speak Lithuanian. That's their choice its sad in this day an age but everyone has there own mind so its fine. Please just stop dressing it up with a bunch of crap that we all know isn't true

 

[RobM]

The trouble with financial stories is that they tend to be self-fulfilling.

If you say that the pound is going to struggling, more people are wary of investing and the price drops.

If you say shares in a company are overpriced, more people sell to cut their losses and the price drops.

Commentary is part of the 24-hour news lives that we live nowadays, but predicting the future is a fool's errand.

Not really there is about $5 trillion traded per day on currencies and only a meagre $4 billion on stocks and shares. Saying the pound is struggling or not has zero effect on the strength/weakness of the pound in the global market. The market has already factored in what it thinks.