EU Referendum

[websaway]

A number of reforms that benefit Britain will be activated almost immediately or within the months after a "Remain" vote, so the status quo will already have shifted in the UK's favour compared to the situation right now.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...special-status-deal-if-uk-votes-to-stay-in-eu

And with the drumbeat for referenda growing louder in France, the Netherlands and other countries, the EU is going to have to seek to change to quell similar "exit" calls as the one which would have just been defeated in the UK.

It may not change as much or as fast as many people would like - in fact, it's almost guaranteed not to given the need to form 28-country consensuses. But it will change, or face disintegration at some later date from some other vote (and in the latter case the "Leave" camp win what they were after anyway).

You say it will change or face disintegration, ( at least that's recognition on your part just how bad an organisation it is ) we cannot wait for that and take in 5 or maybe even 10,000,000 more immigrants. There are already millions who are in Europe from the middle east awaiting EU passports, the masses wanting to come to England will have already done so by the time anything happens and the Islamic state which will rise in a different form will actually be in England. We could not even deal with a few IRA terrorists in the 70's so lets not pretend we will be able to deal with thousands of Jihadis in 10 or 20 years who will be quite happy to walk into any apartment store, any cinema, any school with a suicide vest hidden in their vestments and destroy our lives. No not for me lets control immigration now.

 

[bonusmedia]

I don't think armchair financial advisors should give advice that may be costly to people accepting it. The pound may get stronger after a leave vote. It may get weaker. It may get stronger after a remain vote. It may get weaker.

I don't think armchair financial advisors should give advice that may be costly to people accepting it. The pound may get stronger after a leave vote. It may get weaker. It may get stronger after a remain vote. It may get weaker.

Here's a clue - the pound is sliding based on the polls

 

[RobM]

I've been trading forex daily for 15 years so am well aware of how currencies move against each other. GBPUSD has been in a range for a while now so you might want to look again at the overall picture. It's currently gone from a low in march and got stronger back to previous levels so not sure where you're getting your info from. The pound is ranging against the dollar and euro as it has been doing since the beginning of the year. There is zero indication that this will change.

 

[RobM]

I meant that it will change one way or the other. I expect it to break out of the range after the vote but there is nothing to say which way it will go.

 

[bonusmedia]

This is an entirely news driven phenomenon, charts aren't going to help you much.
My money is where my mouth is. I still think the most likely outcome is that we remain, and the pound strengthens, but this is a hedge

 

[RobM]

Ok whatever you say.

 

[AssetDomains]

You say it will change or face disintegration, ( at least that's recognition on your part just how bad an organisation it is ) we cannot wait for that and take in 5 or maybe even 10,000,000 more immigrants. There are already millions who are in Europe from the middle east awaiting EU passports, the masses wanting to come to England will have already done so by the time anything happens and the Islamic state which will rise in a different form will actually be in England. We could not even deal with a few IRA terrorists in the 70's so lets not pretend we will be able to deal with thousands of Jihadis in 10 or 20 years who will be quite happy to walk into any apartment store, any cinema, any school with a suicide vest hidden in their vestments and destroy our lives. No not for me lets control immigration now.

Do you honestly believe closing migration will stop IS. Unless you go Donald trump and say all Muslims are banned from entering the country what's to stop the EU based IS terrorist coming here on holiday walking into said cinema or shopping centre or school and blowing themselves up. leaving the EU wont make us safer from terrorism it will likely have the opposite effect. It will lead to some animosity between us and are European cousins sure will still be in everyones best interests to share Intelligence but there will inevitably be that extra bit of red tape and bureaucracy that could have tragic consequences. Muslim extremism is a problem the world needs to come together to tackle not go it alone. Lets not forget IS was born from the mess we made in Iraq in a war that most Europeans didn't want it was us and America who started that one and then didn't finish the job when it got messy left a huge power that IS came and filled with the tragic consequences we see today.

 

[signature]

You say it will change or face disintegration, ( at least that's recognition on your part just how bad an organisation it is ) we cannot wait for that and take in 5 or maybe even 10,000,000 more immigrants. There are already millions who are in Europe from the middle east awaiting EU passports, the masses wanting to come to England will have already done so by the time anything happens and the Islamic state which will rise in a different form will actually be in England. We could not even deal with a few IRA terrorists in the 70's so lets not pretend we will be able to deal with thousands of Jihadis in 10 or 20 years who will be quite happy to walk into any apartment store, any cinema, any school with a suicide vest hidden in their vestments and destroy our lives. No not for me lets control immigration now.

Don't know where you get your facts from, all the suicide bombers we had in 7/7 and the two France ones are all Europeans, none from Iraq/Syria/Libya/Iran, they are all EU citizen with EU passport, born in the EU. Also their parent origin has nothing to do with Iraq/Syria etc, they are Pakistani origin and north African origin, these countries are not in the EU and we have them in hundreds of thousands in the UK already.

Getting out of the EU wont stop that, all the recent arrest by our security officers are all British citizens not the guys on the continents.

Even if we exit EU, the ones on the continents can still come over here anyway and spend 90 days as a tourist without needing a VISA or been stopped.

The idea that this issue of suicide bombers will go away when we leave the EU is totally false.

 

[websaway]

Do you honestly believe closing migration will stop IS. Unless you go Donald trump and say all Muslims are banned from entering the country what's to stop the EU based IS terrorist coming here on holiday walking into said cinema or shopping centre or school and blowing themselves up. leaving the EU wont make us safer from terrorism it will likely have the opposite effect. It will lead to some animosity between us and are European cousins sure will still be in everyones best interests to share Intelligence but there will inevitably be that extra bit of red tape and bureaucracy that could have tragic consequences. Muslim extremism is a problem the world needs to come together to tackle not go it alone. Lets not forget IS was born from the mess we made in Iraq in a war that most Europeans didn't want it was us and America who started that one and then didn't finish the job when it got messy left a huge power that IS came and filled with the tragic consequences we see today.

Exactly what I'm afraid of, the rhetoric that ISIS is our fault, the same as the IRA was cromwells fault.. We can control islamist extremism, by contolling who gets in to the country, my point is that when you have millions it will be IMPOSSIBLE to defeat, we will lose because we are civilised.

 

[bonusmedia]

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[AssetDomains]

Were do you think ISIS came from then because everything I've read points to the fact they only got any real power when the west pulled out of the middle east after destabilising it and then not seeing the rebuilding job back through to completion.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/did-george-w-bush-create-isis
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/04/iraq-war-bush-isis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29052144
https://www.quora.com/How-did-ISIS-form-When-and-where-did-ISIS-begin
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/22/syria-iraq-incubators-isis-jihad

Were do you get this figure of million of people coming to blow themselves up. there's already 3million Muslim living in the UK the vast majority hardworking people like yourself who just want a good life for themselves and there children. About 800 0.03% have gone from Briton to join ISIS http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32026985 isis numbers are in the ten's to low hundreds of thousands depending on what number you believe not millions. The majority of the Millions of Muslims who have entered the EU are just looking for a safety for themselves and their family's. There escaping persecution from the nut job that are ISIS that whether you like it or not western policy in the middle east has helped to create.

We live on an island yes but did you not see the pictures of the guys in speed boats who crossed the channel last week if a terrorist want to come to Briton to blow themselves up they will find a way its not that difficult to get in be that on a tourist visa or smuggled in on a dingy or fishing boat crossing the channel. If you think leaving the EU will make us safer from terrorism I'm sorry your deluded

 

[Brassneck]

we will lose because we are civilised.

Have you ever seen British people on holiday in Spain or on stag weekends in Eastern Europe? Or the crap we eat compared to most Europeans? Or most people's lack of knowledge about culture etc? Or the way British people treat the elderly and the young? I think, compared to most worldwide cultures we are a fair way down the civilised list

 

[Toonz]

Exactly what I'm afraid of, the rhetoric that ISIS is our fault, the same as the IRA was cromwells fault..

• It's a fact that Isis grew out of the power vacuum in Iraq following our invasion. Even Blair has since been forced to concede this.
  
• It's a fact that most European governments vehemently opposed the US-UK invasion of Iraq.
  
• It's a fact that plenty of us (not just laymen but also people like Blix, Annan, Ritter, etc) warned that invading Iraq would be like pouring oil on the flames of Islamist terrorism.

For clarity, this is not about us being the villains ultimately to blame for the death of Alan Henning and others. No-one here is saying the US and UK are worse than the barbaric scum who chop people's heads off. Of course moral culpability for each act lies with the bronze age nutters who commit it.

All that's being said is that the heaviest responsibility for defeating Islamist terrorism (and clearing up the mess in Iraq, Syria and Libya) should lie with the countries who destabilised it in the first place, in the face of warnings about how their plans would massively increase terrorism.

You can bet your bottom dollar that if it was the French or Germans who invaded Iraq and the UK who opposed it and stayed out, you'd now been whining about why we should have to clear up the Europeans' mess.

Imagine how they must feel about it all now.

To be clear, I think, on balance, the UK and US are a force for good in this world. I'm not anti-West or anti-American. While we're not perfect, for the most part I'm proud of the values we represent. But that doesn't mean I'm going to delude myself about the role we played in the rise of Isis and the current refugee crisis. We have a duty to defeat the poisonous ideology spreading around the world and to play our part in helping refugees in whatever is the best way to do that.

 

[gimpydog]

(* humiliated by "Black Wednesday" when Britain was forced out of the ERM)

"Humiliated"?? "forced out"?? Where were you in '92?

Who wanted us in the ERM? - all the usual suspects, the IMF, big business, the bankers et al. The same gang that said we should join the single currency & the same people who back 'remain' today.

We now know they were wrong then. Lamont did the right thing & should be praised for it, not mocked. The UK economy has gone from strength to strength since then, the EU has gone from bailout to bailout,

 

[gimpydog]

BTW, if you've not been following the subject that closely, here are how all the still-living leaders and former leaders of the three main political parties stand on "Brexit"...
CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERS
BACK REMAINJohn Major, William Hague, David Cameron
BACK LEAVEIain Duncan Smith, Michael Howard
-----------------
LABOUR PARTY LEADERS
BACK REMAINNeil Kinnock, Margaret Beckett, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn
BACK LEAVE(nobody)
-----------------
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADERS
BACK REMAINDavid Steel, Robert Maclennan, Paddy Ashdown, Menzies Campbell, Vincent Cable, Nick Clegg, Tim Farron
BACK LEAVE(nobody)

All of them have one vote - the same as you & me. Most of them have little pertinent knowledge of the issue at hand. Some appear to to be clueless....

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[Edwin]

"Humiliated"?? "forced out"?? Where were you in '92?

In the UK, watching at least some of it unfold on TV (I can't pretend to have been glued to the screen the entire day) and on the radio (still a thing back then).

When, at the end of that day, Norman Lamont, the then chancellor, announced the suspension of Britain's membership of the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM), it was the economic equivalent of a surrender, every bit as humiliating as a major military defeat.

http://businesslife.ba.com/Ideas/Economics/Remembering-Black-Wednesday-September-1992.html

We soon found out. 'Black Wednesday' saw his policy destroyed in the markets — a total defeat, no less costly and humiliating if the policy was, as I thought, wrong. I assumed that the Chancellor would go with it.

http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/5th-june-1993/25/city-and-suburban

As finance minister during Britain's humiliating "Black Wednesday" currency crisis in 1992, Lamont was forced to take sterling out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after haemorrhaging reserves to currency traders such as George Soros, who famously made over $1 billion betting against the pound.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-lamont-idUKBRE8500N620120601

The obvious parallel is the humiliation of Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992, when John Major and Norman Lamont were forced to take the pound out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism — a system designed to limit fluctuations in value between European currencies.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...--hit-September-So-history-repeat-itself.html

 

[Edwin]

Just in case you've not got enough to read on the Brexit debate already, here's Martin Lewis (of MoneySavingExpert.com) discussing the issue and breaking down the logic for his voting decision...
http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2016/06/05/how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/

 

[armistice]

Just in case you've not got enough to read on the Brexit debate already, here's Martin Lewis (of MoneySavingExpert.com) discussing the issue and breaking down the logic for his voting decision...
http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2016/06/05/how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/

The moneysaving poll results are interesting http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/po...-the-eu-referendum-or-are-you-a-39dont-know39

 

[RobM]

Just in case you've not got enough to read on the Brexit debate already, here's Martin Lewis (of MoneySavingExpert.com) discussing the issue and breaking down the logic for his voting decision...
http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2016/06/05/how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/

A very interesting article and easily worded.

 

[spiderspider]

Just in case you've not got enough to read on the Brexit debate already, here's Martin Lewis (of MoneySavingExpert.com) discussing the issue and breaking down the logic for his voting decision...
http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2016/06/05/how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/

Interesting you mention Martin Lewis.

Had this bit of tat come through the door (if I can get it to attach) (I screwed it up and chucked it in the bin):

In which they quote him.

I then heard him on Radio 4 this lunch time (think it was world at one, they also had Nigel on after him) says he did not approve this, he was not asked, he had not allowed it.

Interesting that.