EU Referendum

[gimpydog]

In the UK, watching at least some of it unfold on TV (I can't pretend to have been glued to the screen the entire day) and on the radio (still a thing back then).


http://businesslife.ba.com/Ideas/Economics/Remembering-Black-Wednesday-September-1992.html


http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/5th-june-1993/25/city-and-suburban


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-lamont-idUKBRE8500N620120601


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...--hit-September-So-history-repeat-itself.html

You obviously think he did the wrong thing &, presumably, should have not stopped hiking interest rates at 15%, but kept on going until he brought the country to it's knees. Why not just abandon the pound & use the Deutschmark?

 

[newguy]

Betting odds-wise Remain still edges it, but on the other side of the coin in my area it's almost exclusively Leave. Polls are moving towards leave too though there are still plenty or undecided voters. Of course it's hard to get excited about staying on the same path so that may explain the lack of volume. Regardless of how people intend to vote, I'd be interested to know what you think the result will be?

 

[AssetDomains]

Not read it but is this the guy who sold his business for £70,000,000.
he won't be living on a sink estate then.

I guess your a 100% which way your voting but its certainly worth a read for any who are a little unsure discusses the points in an impartial manner

Regards sink estates I don't know why you put that at the door of the EU I've grown up on deprived estates when I look at what happens around me I see

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/17-things-european-funding-done-10925208
Or
http://www.sevenstreets.com/why-liverpool-wont-mourn-margaret-thatcher/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/m...d-an-entire-city-shy-and-his-boss-543923.html

If leave wins I fear Scotland leaves and joins the EU the way are political system works the north has no real say in who runs the country
There a lot of problems with the EU but at the end of the day I kind of trust them more to look after the common man than I ever would trust Cameron, Gove, Boris and there cronies.
I truly wish there was a third option for a remain if the right reforms can be won but between EU and a probable Boris run tory party deciding my fate for the next 10 - 15 years right now Im going to sway to remain so at least if they do continue to do down the north there's always the option easily being able to hop on a plane and moving to nicer climbs in southern France or Spain.

Becase hitler was obsessed with the loss of the first world war, it did not make him any less of a threat to our security, no good us saying if we had not won the first word war he would not have the ambitions he had. We can not change yesterday but we can deal with tomorrow.
So let's just get control of who comes to our country. It is still our country after all, well just.

And like I said voting out wont make us any safer from terrorists you haven't said controlling our borders stops terrorists entering on tourist visas or more likely smuggling themselves in the backs of lorry's or on boats across the channel. Do you think if we vote out pull up some metaphorical drawbridge that ISIS is never going to attack Briton because it seems to me your burying your head in the sand ISIS exist and the west are going to one day have to get there hands dirty an sort them out the cost will be much less to Britain if we can bring Europeans on board rather than going it alone with the US lets face that didn't work out to well last time did it

 

[martin-s]

I truly wish there was a third option for a remain if the right reforms can be won

The only way of winning further reforms is to vote out and be negotiated back in again, but holding more cards than we did during Dave's pathetic attempts. Despite all the puffed out chests refusing to accept it, that's one of the most likely possible results of Brexit.

Even the president of Europe acknowledges that much of the EU is unhappy with the level of integration. If our referendum wasn't happening right now, the Euro would be continuing to take an absolute kicking, because there's no way it will work without financial controls and budget approval coming down from the EU in greater depth than already happens.

There's a conspiracy going on to make you believe that out means out. But all it means is a new reality for the EU area to work with. It would bring a serious shock to politics across the EU.

They may decide that it's better to accept more reform and a slightly different path if it encourages us to stay. (May, or may not, I accept. Leaving is still better than what we have now anyway)

If you vote remain, the EU will have the mandate they need for another 30+ years of gradually soaking up our sovereignty, vigour renewed.

If anything is scary, it's that.

 

[ian]

Regardless of how people intend to vote, I'd be interested to know what you think the result will be?

Well my mate put £2k on 'stay', with odds of 2/5; he's starting to look quite nervy about his "sure thing".

 

[newguy]

Well my mate put £2k on 'stay', with odds of 2/5; he's starting to look quite nervy about his "sure thing".

Haha. Yes, I can't say I''d be too confident either way lumping money on this vote.

 

[Edwin]

You obviously think he did the wrong thing &, presumably, should have not stopped hiking interest rates at 15%, but kept on going until he brought the country to it's knees. Why not just abandon the pound & use the Deutschmark?

You obviously have me confused with dozens of financial journalists and historians. I didn't write those quotes, I just linked to them. And there are many more where they came from.

All I think about is the facts: He was on the losing side of the most profitable forex trade of all time, and spent so much of the UK's reserves that the true figure was buried for years and the government went to court to stop its publication.

 

[AssetDomains]

The only way of winning further reforms is to vote out and be negotiated back in again, but holding more cards than we did during Dave's pathetic attempts. Despite all the puffed out chests refusing to accept it, that's one of the most likely possible results of Brexit.

Even the president of Europe acknowledges that much of the EU is unhappy with the level of integration. If our referendum wasn't happening right now, the Euro would be continuing to take an absolute kicking, because there's no way it will work without financial controls and budget approval coming down from the EU in greater depth than already happens.

There's a conspiracy going on to make you believe that out means out. But all it means is a new reality for the EU area to work with. It would bring a serious shock to politics across the EU.

They may decide that it's better to accept more reform and a slightly different path if it encourages us to stay. (May, or may not, I accept. Leaving is still better than what we have now anyway)

If you vote remain, the EU will have the mandate they need for another 30+ years of gradually soaking up our sovereignty, vigour renewed.

If anything is scary, it's that.

I'm been wondering if that would be the likely outcome but who carries out the renegotiation Cameron is probably gone if leave win. UKIP seem to want nothing at all to do with Europe reformed or not how could the torries lined up to takeover backtrack and not follow it all the way through.

As I think leave will likely win I hope it just does force through a better Europe as ultimately I believe I people work better striving towards a common goal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29746430
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-18702455

Than just looking after ones own self interest.

 

[ian]

I have to say that if I was trading physical goods to Europe at the level I was a few years ago (100's of orders per day), I'd stick with the EU simply to avoid the possible additional red tape you get with Switzerland, Norway etc now.

 

[Edwin]

A piece on Newsnight just presented as somehow surprising the fact that the deals to be negotiated in case of Brexit don't seem likely to match what Vote Leave is claiming will happen.

But it's staggeringly obvious that's the case since this isn't an election, so Vote Leave don't magically gain power from the referendum result.

 

[RobM]

Sorry where did this idea of a 'reformed' europe come from? Certainly not from Europe. When did this become an 'option'?

 

[Mark84]

Martin Lewis is a financial clown, telling people to invest in Iceland when it was at 9% APR on savings. Totally over looking the fact that interest rates reflect risk. Martin Lewis also gave out mortgage advice every week on TV without being regulated to do so. How the guy isn't in jail is a complete mystery. Anyone quoting Martin Lewis as a financial expert is completely clueless.

He's an expert in being a media whore, that's all he is. The people on his site are the smarter ones - financially speaking, but hey they didn't get a penny when he sold it for £70m so I guess they aren't that clever after all.

As for the economics experts, there is one thing that separates these financial experts and the Job centre was tax payers cash. If they hadn't have got a bailout, the majority of them would have been laughing stocks.

Just take one for example - Morgan Stanley

2011 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tanley-at-brink-of-collapse-got-107b-from-fed

2016 - http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/17/morgan-stanley-ceo-brexit-damaging-for-the-uk.html

What is it with people, do they just love a good beating over and over again?

A piece on Newsnight just presented as somehow surprising the fact that the deals to be negotiated in case of Brexit don't seem likely to match what Vote Leave is claiming will happen.

But it's staggeringly obvious that's the case since this isn't an election, so Vote Leave don't magically gain power from the referendum result.

Trusting anything that comes out of the BBC on the EU issue is like trusting Jimmy Saville with your kids.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/677025/BBC-in-referendum-BIAS-row-over-Brexit-report.

 

[websaway]

Are the public now being taken for complete idiots. They are being told that short term movement in the pound is an indicator of how our economy will fare outside the EU.

 

[armistice]

Yesterday the BBC reported http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36462345 drops in the pound/USD as a major news story, showing how the chance of a brexit vote was weighing on the exchange rate.
In reality it was a small fall of approx 0.5%. I've been following the rate for an upcoming holiday and is no different to the rises and falls over the previous few months.
Today the exchange rate is up 0.5% already, are they going to report that (I wont hold my breath).

 

[Mark84]

They think it is nothing to do with the fed Chairman saying that she didn't think rates would rise this month. Last weeks drop in the pound was due more to poor jobs data from the states.

It's not the fact that the BBC don't think it is related, it's the fact that they don't even suggest the drop of the pound / rise of the pound is linked to the FED rates or US jobs data and is now only effected by Brexit.

 

[Edwin]

There's a huge difference between distrusting a particular expert, and distrusting ALL experts. The former is healthy scepticism, the latter is head in the sand denial.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to learning specifics of the Leave camp argument tonight from Nigel Farage. As an MEP, he's had first-hand experience of the European Parliament.

 

[monaghan]

There's a huge difference between distrusting a particular expert, and distrusting ALL experts. The former is healthy scepticism, the latter is head in the sand denial.

The problem in this case is that the majority of us no not know sufficient to know which are real experts and which are making it up combine that with the distrust of politicians and in reality nobody really knows the detail of what is happening and therefore will believe the message that most appeals to their own prejudices rather than making a decision on actual facts.

If one "expert" says we're better leaving and another "expert" says we're better off staying then how is the man in the street expected to know who is right?

 

[Edwin]

True. But when several hundred experts (economists) fall into the Remain camp, and 8 put their name to a letter supporting Leave, there's a dominance of opinion that would on the face of it seem hard to deny.

 

[RobM]

It's sickening how certain areas claim the pound movement is an indicator of how things will be *after* the vote. It's clearly a period of indecision tending towards the positive.

We can see the daily upward trend for the pound against the dollar. This in no way means it will continue but if the media is harking on about it they should mention how strong it is compared to it's low point in Feb, mention it's general trending up, mention how much stronger it is SINCE YESTERDAY. But no that kind of story isn't scary.

 

[gimpydog]

You obviously have me confused with dozens of financial journalists and historians. I didn't write those quotes, I just linked to them. And there are many more where they came from.

Well at least stand by your sources. Lets see an asterisk next to John Major's name too.

The obvious parallel is the humiliation of Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992, when John Major and Norman Lamont were forced to take the pound out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism — a system designed to limit fluctuations in value between European currencies.

All I think about is the facts: He was on the losing side of the most profitable forex trade of all time, and spent so much of the UK's reserves that the true figure was buried for years and the government went to court to stop its publication.

About £3 billion wasn't it? A third of an Olympics & about what we send to the EU every two months.

BTW, It wasn't about a big forex trade, it was the pre-cursor to monetary union. Tying our currency to the German economy.

How did that work out in Greece?, in Portugal?, in Ireland?, in Spain?, in Italy?.....