EU Referendum

[Edwin]

Just an aside Edwin - how are you editing your post? Is there an option staring me in the face that I haven't seen?

On my phone, there's a little "hamburger" style stacked menu next to the timestamp with an "edit" option in it. Probably similar on a PC but mine's off for the night.

So hardly "in your face" but it is there!

 

[Edwin]

Deadline to register to vote in the referendum is midnight tomorrow (Tuesday).

More information about who is eligible to vote, and how the process works...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/05/how-do-i-vote-in-the-eu-referendum

(There is nothing whatsoever on the page I linked to above about which way you should vote!)

 

[newguy]

--

 

[signature]

"Pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit, the BBC has learnt. There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147. The single market guarantees the free movement of goods, people, services and capital."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

Having free movement after Brexit will be a blow to a lot of Brexiters, immigration is their main course of voting out. Not sure how that will plan out...

 

[signature]

Just been reading a report on BBC about the EU Referendum in the 1975 and their predictions, the last sentence on the article sums up the arguments on both sides:

"it is best to take confident predictions about what might happen in the future, from either side, with a large pinch of salt."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36367246

 

[websaway]

The leaders of 10 trade unions, representing 6 million workers, urge their members to vote "Remain"...



http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ers-call-on-6m-members-to-vote-against-brexit

I suppose they'll be suspected of ulterior motives next!

In this action, they're joining the TUC (Britain's largest trade union) who, in February this year, laid out a clear case for staying in the EU in order to protect workers' rights.
https://www.tuc.org.uk/international-issues/europe/employment-and-social-policy/eu-referendum/tuc-report-outlines-workers’

The TUC white paper
https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/UK employment rights and the EU_0.pdf

More background from one of the TUC blogs
http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2016/04/best-best-possible-brexits-rather-isnt/

I think you'll find most want to remain in a reformed EU. That's a cop out, everyone would want to remain in a reformed EU. Reformed by limiting closer ties, reformed by limiting movement of people, etc etc. But there is not going to be any reform and a reformed EU is not on the ballot paper.

 

[Edwin]

I think you'll find most want to remain in a reformed EU. That's a cop out, everyone would want to remain in a reformed EU. Reformed by limiting closer ties, reformed by limiting movement of people, etc etc. But there is not going to be any reform and a reformed EU is not on the ballot paper.

A number of reforms that benefit Britain will be activated almost immediately or within the months after a "Remain" vote, so the status quo will already have shifted in the UK's favour compared to the situation right now.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...special-status-deal-if-uk-votes-to-stay-in-eu

And with the drumbeat for referenda growing louder in France, the Netherlands and other countries, the EU is going to have to seek to change to quell similar "exit" calls as the one which would have just been defeated in the UK.

It may not change as much or as fast as many people would like - in fact, it's almost guaranteed not to given the need to form 28-country consensuses. But it will change, or face disintegration at some later date from some other vote (and in the latter case the "Leave" camp win what they were after anyway).

 

[websaway]

Deadline to register to vote in the referendum is midnight tomorrow (Tuesday).

More information about who is eligible to vote, and how the process works...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/05/how-do-i-vote-in-the-eu-referendum

(There is nothing whatsoever on the page I linked to above about which way you should vote!)

Tim Roach GMB union said yesterday on the Television that he would be advising his members to stay in a" reformed EU". How deceptive is that.
I repeat, if reformed EU was on the ballot paper we would be discussing reforms. This is a dimension to the argument that does not exist.

 

[bonusmedia]

I know what a strawman argument is but thanks for the link. I don't need to 'shut you down' I was just pointing out that you suggested people with an opinion were 'armchair economists' who don't know enough and therefore shouldn't state their opinions as others knew more. A strawman argument, by the way, would be IF you hadn't made your post and I suggested you did and then argued against it. I could be childish and post a link explaining what an argument is called when you accuse someone of the wrong type of argument but I wont

You misrepresented my argument and continue to do so.

 

[bonusmedia]

Pound is sliding based on the polls, if you want to hedge against a leave vote it's probably time to buy dollars

 

[bonusmedia]

Having free movement after Brexit will be a blow to a lot of Brexiters, immigration is their main course of voting out. Not sure how that will plan out...

Apparently it will come as a complete surprise to many of them.

 

[RobM]

I don't think armchair financial advisors should give advice that may be costly to people accepting it. The pound may get stronger after a leave vote. It may get weaker. It may get stronger after a remain vote. It may get weaker.

 

[bonusmedia]

Tim Roach GMB union said yesterday on the Television that he would be advising his members to stay in a" reformed EU". How deceptive is that.
I repeat, if reformed EU was on the ballot paper we would be discussing reforms. This is a dimension to the argument that does not exist.

Cameron's reforms apply the day after we vote remain, whatever you think of them

 

[websaway]

A number of reforms that benefit Britain will be activated almost immediately or within the months after a "Remain" vote, so the status quo will already have shifted in the UK's favour compared to the situation right now.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...special-status-deal-if-uk-votes-to-stay-in-eu

And with the drumbeat for referenda growing louder in France, the Netherlands and other countries, the EU is going to have to seek to change to quell similar "exit" calls as the one which would have just been defeated in the UK.

It may not change as much or as fast as many people would like - in fact, it's almost guaranteed not to given the need to form 28-country consensuses. But it will change, or face disintegration at some later date from some other vote (and in the latter case the "Leave" camp win what they were after anyway).

You say it will change or face disintegration, ( at least that's recognition on your part just how bad an organisation it is ) we cannot wait for that and take in 5 or maybe even 10,000,000 more immigrants. There are already millions who are in Europe from the middle east awaiting EU passports, the masses wanting to come to England will have already done so by the time anything happens and the Islamic state which will rise in a different form will actually be in England. We could not even deal with a few IRA terrorists in the 70's so lets not pretend we will be able to deal with thousands of Jihadis in 10 or 20 years who will be quite happy to walk into any apartment store, any cinema, any school with a suicide vest hidden in their vestments and destroy our lives. No not for me lets control immigration now.

 

[bonusmedia]

I don't think armchair financial advisors should give advice that may be costly to people accepting it. The pound may get stronger after a leave vote. It may get weaker. It may get stronger after a remain vote. It may get weaker.

I don't think armchair financial advisors should give advice that may be costly to people accepting it. The pound may get stronger after a leave vote. It may get weaker. It may get stronger after a remain vote. It may get weaker.

Here's a clue - the pound is sliding based on the polls

 

[RobM]

I've been trading forex daily for 15 years so am well aware of how currencies move against each other. GBPUSD has been in a range for a while now so you might want to look again at the overall picture. It's currently gone from a low in march and got stronger back to previous levels so not sure where you're getting your info from. The pound is ranging against the dollar and euro as it has been doing since the beginning of the year. There is zero indication that this will change.

 

[RobM]

I meant that it will change one way or the other. I expect it to break out of the range after the vote but there is nothing to say which way it will go.

 

[bonusmedia]

This is an entirely news driven phenomenon, charts aren't going to help you much.
My money is where my mouth is. I still think the most likely outcome is that we remain, and the pound strengthens, but this is a hedge

 

[RobM]

Ok whatever you say.

 

[AssetDomains]

You say it will change or face disintegration, ( at least that's recognition on your part just how bad an organisation it is ) we cannot wait for that and take in 5 or maybe even 10,000,000 more immigrants. There are already millions who are in Europe from the middle east awaiting EU passports, the masses wanting to come to England will have already done so by the time anything happens and the Islamic state which will rise in a different form will actually be in England. We could not even deal with a few IRA terrorists in the 70's so lets not pretend we will be able to deal with thousands of Jihadis in 10 or 20 years who will be quite happy to walk into any apartment store, any cinema, any school with a suicide vest hidden in their vestments and destroy our lives. No not for me lets control immigration now.

Do you honestly believe closing migration will stop IS. Unless you go Donald trump and say all Muslims are banned from entering the country what's to stop the EU based IS terrorist coming here on holiday walking into said cinema or shopping centre or school and blowing themselves up. leaving the EU wont make us safer from terrorism it will likely have the opposite effect. It will lead to some animosity between us and are European cousins sure will still be in everyones best interests to share Intelligence but there will inevitably be that extra bit of red tape and bureaucracy that could have tragic consequences. Muslim extremism is a problem the world needs to come together to tackle not go it alone. Lets not forget IS was born from the mess we made in Iraq in a war that most Europeans didn't want it was us and America who started that one and then didn't finish the job when it got messy left a huge power that IS came and filled with the tragic consequences we see today.