EU Referendum

[Toonz]

France's Calais seeks border deal changes

And so it begins.

 

[Edwin]

The video Edwin posted of Hannan rowing back and arguing for remaining in the EEA is telling.

Important to note that EU leaders have made it quite clear we can't stay in the EEA for free - we may end up paying as much or more than we did for EU membership with no say whatsoever and limited benefits

Senior German sources were apparently saying tonight that they value the integrity of the rest of the EU block way more than a potential loss of (some) trade with the UK. If that pans out, then that's the "apocalypse" scenario right there.

 

[Skinner]

Im wondering if the "leaves" claim that a second referendum could be called before the 2 yrs are up and basically say we were wrong and revert to here (presumably having lost camerons earlier deal), not sure it will be comfortable, or possible, but I suspect France and likes would welcome it as it shows leaving is futile.

 

[Edwin]

Im wondering if the "leaves" claim that a second referendum could be called before the 2 yrs are up and basically say we were wrong and revert to here (presumably having lost camerons earlier deal), not sure it will be comfortable, or possible, but I suspect France and likes would welcome it as it shows leaving is futile.

From what I read so far, Article 50 doesn't work like that. As soon as it's invoked, the UK jumps out of the EU plane (as Remain consistently warns was the case)

So the only way to dodge brexit is to annul the referendum before article 50 gets activated, then go on bended knee to the EU and use up the next few decades worth of political and diplomatic capital to persuade them to accept the fact the UK "didn't mean it". That would almost certainly involve major concessions that will play very badly here.

But it might fulfil the other purpose, of demonstrating how scary leaving can be and hence dampening down referendum rumblings across the rest of Europe.

I assume ALL the following:
A) the above scenario is v unlikely but not impossible
B) the situation would have to deteriorate so quickly that out and out panic sets in amongst both the Leave and Remain camps (Leave having belatedly come to realise what Remain knew all along: this thing will get BA-AD!)
C) there would have to be some kind of added accountability eg mass resignations of key Leave and perhaps Remain figures, and a general election soon afterwards (or a "government of national unity" cross-party coalition)
D) some kind of sop would have to be given to the electorate, eg an extra £10 billion a year pumped into the NHS and the shredding of Green Belt legislation (or mass release of brownfield sites) coupled with a massive programme of house building to tackle the housing crisis head on, all paid for by pushing the idea of balancing the budget far into the future
E) possibly added concessions such as more electoral reform such as votes for 16/17 year olds, tweaks to the FPTP system, etc so that the electorate feel they get something big and meaningful out of the referendum even if it wasn't what they thought they were voting for

All the above is highly speculative. There would almost certainly be a recession, an exodus in certain industries such as finance that just can't take the risk that it could all happen again, a real and permanent loss of face for the UK in the world, and massive widespread discontent.

And yet... Everything I outlined above might STILL turn out to be a lesser evil than activating article 50 and jumping!

 

[dougs]

I wonder if you could see the situation becoming so toxic that none of the likely leadership candidates want to step forward because it's a guaranteed career killer after a brief, heady taste of power.

None of the people in the current limelight hopefully have any chance. My family in Newcastle all voted LEAVE but they all hate Boris etc

 

[Edwin]

None of the people in the current limelight hopefully have any chance. My family in Newcastle all voted LEAVE but they all hate Boris etc

That kind of suggests they didn't think through the consequences of a Leave vote.

There was no way in a million years a Remain prime minister would have been willing to implemented a Leave agenda, which is why the electorate were repeatedly warned that a Leave vote was also effectively a vote for Boris, Gove et al.

And because of the Fixed Term Parliaments act and the way the party system works, it was not only inevitable but unstoppable. There was literally no way of voting Leave and getting anyone other than Boris, Gove et al!

 

[Edwin]

BTW you only have to glance at the news sites to realise that the Brexit vote has sped up the worlds of politics and finance to a degree unheard of in normal circumstances. Things will play out over days and weeks that might have taken years otherwise.

Remember that every time you hear a Leave campaigner calling for a "period of calm and reflection" as several did yesterday. The world isn't going to wait around while they contemplate their navels...

 

[monaghan]

There seems to be so much focus on whether we did the right thing, can it be stopped and so on. We are where we are whether you voted in out or didn't bother to vote, that's one thing everyone needs to agree on.

Now is the time to get behind the country and make it the best we can with what's been decided rather than continue the arguing and fighting we had in the run up to the vote whilst Europe is deciding what they will do without any input from us.

 

[websaway]

Senior German sources were apparently saying tonight that they value the integrity of the rest of the EU block way more than a potential loss of (some) trade with the UK. If that pans out, then that's the "apocalypse" scenario right there.

I assume the last line of your post is your comment and not the German source. You are so desperate to be right on your predictions you are now using words like apocalypse.

What you are like is the spouse of the abused partner who is so shocked at the spouse leaving that they are sending messages scaring them by telling them how hard life will be , but the abused spouse will reply that it's a price worth paying to be outside the abusive relationship.

You will be right on some things, people accepted when they voted to leave that there would be a short term shock and even possible hardship, but they considered that a price worth paying.

 

[websaway]

That kind of suggests they didn't think through the consequences of a Leave vote.

There was no way in a million years a Remain prime minister would have been willing to implemented a Leave agenda, which is why the electorate were repeatedly warned that a Leave vote was also effectively a vote for Boris, Gove et al.

And because of the Fixed Term Parliaments act and the way the party system works, it was not only inevitable but unstoppable. There was literally no way of voting Leave and getting anyone other than Boris, Gove et al!

Well at least the good people of Newcastle will be able to put a face and a name to who is governing the country, which would not have been the case had they remained.

 

[websaway]

France's Calais seeks border deal changes

And so it begins.

You wish.

 

[AssetDomains]

FYI if you have very very deep pockets, you can buy a passport from Malta (an EU member).
http://www.maltaimmigration.com/

If you have recent Irish ancestry you can always do this

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...ate-brexit-eu-referendum-result-34803753.html

Just to be clear this wasn't meant as a dig just pointing out there may be a cheaper way for some remainers to keep an EU passport and be able to freely move around and easily settle in Europe one day if they wished. I know there's Irish heritage on my mums side so I'm going to look into if its a possibility.

 

[websaway]

Does anyone on the Leave camp expect this to "blow over" in a few days or weeks or months?

You've got an entire generation basically feeling disenfranchised by people old enough to have (statistically) done better. Cheap housing, free education, platinum plated pensions by today's standards.

This will run forever...

You have a father and son company. Father and son sit on the board, son wants to sell the company to a bidder meaning he can take his share and live the life of Riley , father does not agree, he wants to keep what he's built, retain and look after the good staff that he's built his business on and around, he is prepared to rise at six, seven days a week to retain his business.. His son is never going to agree, self interest has completely overtaken his outlook for the future, and his inability to appreciate his fathers position.

 

[websaway]

Sums up my position perfectly.

There's a rather splendid Japanese expression, shiri nugui. It means "clean up someone else's mess" but more literally it means "wipe their ahem for them"

That's exactly what Cameron wasn't willing to do for Leave.

I really don't understand that, it's not someone else's mess it's his and Osborn's mess.

 

[Edwin]

For the 48%, this was a day of despair
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/48-britain-regrexit-voted-remaon

I'm not saying you have to agree with it, I promise. But please read it slowly. Several times. Let it really sink in.

Then - and only then - do you have a chance of understanding what the rest of us are feeling.

 

[VSC]

Or maybe it's because the mainstream media only report and push those issues?
And the remain camp used immigration to discredit the leave camp and appeal to the remain camp?
And you could say remainers mainly voted in because of the economy and no other reason?
And you could also say that MP's are corrupt and only acting in self interest?

Media - Both left and right media, leave and remain media commented on the immigration issue. The post referendum interviews I've seen have immigration as a major issue. Yes they are mostly biased (the Independent was the only paper to stay neutral), but even my own experience of talking with leave voters has led me to the point of view that immigration was a major issue - not the main one, I never said that, but one of the top ones.

Remain camp - Nigel Farage and his poster didn't exactly help their point of view.

Remain vote - The remain voters that I talked with would cite the economy, UK safety and security, and being part of a big team is better than standing alone.

MPs - All of them? So you didn't vote in the last general election? If they are all corrupt what do you expect will happen over the next years when they guide the UK out?

 

[Edwin]

I really don't understand that, it's not someone else's mess it's his and Osborn's mess.

Nope. Everything after the polls closed is Leave's mess. The referendum was Cameron's, and he fell on his sword for it.

 

[VSC]

You wish.

Why should a sovereign country have another countries security services and border control in theirs?

 

[VSC]

Can't remember where I read it now, but I believe a LD MP was suggesting that a new pro EU democratic centre-left party be formed ... They'd get some disgruntled labour MPs signing up I bet!

 

[websaway]

For a little bit of context, £250 billion was wiped off the wider stockmarket today. That's money that will have vapourised in large part from pension funds. It's also 25 years worth of EU contributions...

... but I'm so looking forward to reaping the benefits when we Take Back Control.

You really are typical of the academics who know everything. Typical of experts, those that if they could get it right would be working on wall street. You seem to know little about the history of the money markets. There are still exactly the same amount of consumers that their were on the 22nd, the markets position themselves to suit, one mans sell is another mans buy.
If in the unlikely event that underlying value has been affected then it was overpriced anyway. Your negative slant on everything is now becoming very tedious.

Vapourised ? Stocks and shared and currencies rise and fall. Vapourised I think is for the science lab.

I think your rhetoric would impress the young, but be careful what you tell them, it moulds their future thinking and the most important thing for a young person is to be taught to be positive.