EU Referendum

[Murray]

I feel like you guys would have been mad at the people throwing the tea out of the boats at Boston

 

[bonusmedia]

I assume the information in this article it correct, hopefully someone can inform me if not

EU rules override national laws.. fundamentally it's just wrong isn't it?

Firstly - I think this lays out some reasonable and genuine arguments against the EU. Nobody ever said the EU was perfect, and most people agreed the EU was in need of reform.

1) Accountability - it's true that the executive branches have an accountability problem. However, we did directly elect members of the European Parliament, and the executive was still accountable to member states, if not directly to the people

2) Yes, regulation places a burden on business, just as healthy and safety rules do. But regulation also stops bad things happening, just as healthy and safety regulations keep us healthy and safe. It's fair to argue there was too much regulation, but the way to deal with that is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

3) Possibly the strongest argument, from my point of view. We have a big issue with corporate power. However we've now given power to the far right, who are almost by definition on the side of business against the people. To quote Mussolini: "Fascism should more properly be called corporatism, since it is the merger of state and corporate power"

more follows

 

[Edwin]

Does anyone on the Leave camp expect this to "blow over" in a few days or weeks or months?

You've got an entire generation basically feeling disenfranchised by people old enough to have (statistically) done better. Cheap housing, free education, platinum plated pensions by today's standards.

This will run forever...

 

[Edwin]

I wonder if you could see the situation becoming so toxic that none of the likely leadership candidates want to step forward because it's a guaranteed career killer after a brief, heady taste of power.

 

[bonusmedia]

4) The Euro was not right for the UK then and it isn't now. The UK did not want to be part of the 'ever stronger union', we did not want closer political or fiscal integration. We stated this and we had an agreement that would not be part of it. We had the right to veto any further transfer of powers.

5) The immigration argument has already collapsed - see the video above. Our economy relies on immigrants and will continue to do so

6) This one carries some weight. We will indeed have 'greater control'. We can now restrict immigration to more skilled people if we so wish. If you believe indigenous British people will take up all the minimum wage jobs in the fields then this is a good thing. It may result in an increase in wages for some trades which may well be a good thing - although that means it will also push up the costs of many trades and services

7) Again this argument has largely collapsed already, Farage has stated the £350 million figure was a mistake. We already got half the money back straight away, and we arguably got far more back from the benefits of being an EU member than it cost us. We may now send less to the EU - but we'll have far less to spend in the first place

Only a fool would claim there are no benefits to striking out on our own. It was a question of weighing them up against the downside - which could be economic collapse for a generation. I sincerely hope that doesn't happen. In the meantime we have a lot of very difficult issues to deal with.

Also - we're just looking at a few of the good arguments for leaving here and forgetting all the strong arguments for remaining - although I do wonder why I'm bothering

 

[Toonz]

I wonder if you could see the situation becoming so toxic that none of the likely leadership candidates want to step forward because it's a guaranteed career killer after a brief, heady taste of power.

I'm not sure - I think Boris and Theresa have been waiting so long, they won't be able to resist.

I just hope it's not Fox or Patel. They would be my nightmare.

You know what? I'm actually feeling a bit sorry for Cameron. I'm a natural LibDem and I reckon his coalition years were kinder to him than his majority ones. Still, twas his own doing - the calling of the referendum, the concessions and the nature of the campaign.

 

[Edwin]

It's probably ultimately easier to let the markets make the arguments. They're impersonal, uncaring, and cannot be swayed by emotional appeal...

 

[Toonz]

Something else I was wondering earlier is whether a situation might develop whereby it becomes clear that we will have to accept freedom of movement. Imagine how unpopular that will make the PM. If it's Labour that does it, they'll never be trusted again. Though I can't see them getting in for a very long time, if ever again (perhaps an exodus of MPs to the Lib Dems?)

 

[bonusmedia]

I feel like you guys would have been mad at the people throwing the tea out of the boats at Boston

Yes, certainly. A waste of good tea. There were plenty of good arguments for American Independence, 10% tax on tea was not one of them

 

[Edwin]

You know what? I'm actually feeling a bit sorry for Cameron. I'm a natural LibDem and I reckon his coalition years were kinder to him than his majority ones. Still, twas his own doing - the calling of the referendum, the concessions and the nature of the campaign.

Sums up my position perfectly.

There's a rather splendid Japanese expression, shiri nugui. It means "clean up someone else's mess" but more literally it means "wipe their ahem for them"

That's exactly what Cameron wasn't willing to do for Leave.

 

[Edwin]

Something else I was wondering earlier is whether a situation might develop whereby it becomes clear that we will have to accept freedom of movement. Imagine how unpopular that will make the PM. If it's Labour that does it, they'll never be trusted again. Though I can't see them getting in for a very long time, if ever again (perhaps an exodus of MPs to the Lib Dems?)

Under those circumstances, I think they will be forced to cook up some excuse for a second referendum, maybe a "save the United Kingdom" rallying cry to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland inside the union. And hopefully, having seen the damage being meted out by the implacable faceless markets we'll see a different result.

 

[bonusmedia]

Something else I was wondering earlier is whether a situation might develop whereby it becomes clear that we will have to accept freedom of movement. Imagine how unpopular that will make the PM. If it's Labour that does it, they'll never be trusted again. Though I can't see them getting in for a very long time, if ever again (perhaps an exodus of MPs to the Lib Dems?)

The video Edwin posted of Hannan rowing back and arguing for remaining in the EEA is telling.

Important to note that EU leaders have made it quite clear we can't stay in the EEA for free - we may end up paying as much or more than we did for EU membership with no say whatsoever and limited benefits

 

[Toonz]

France's Calais seeks border deal changes

And so it begins.

 

[Edwin]

The video Edwin posted of Hannan rowing back and arguing for remaining in the EEA is telling.

Important to note that EU leaders have made it quite clear we can't stay in the EEA for free - we may end up paying as much or more than we did for EU membership with no say whatsoever and limited benefits

Senior German sources were apparently saying tonight that they value the integrity of the rest of the EU block way more than a potential loss of (some) trade with the UK. If that pans out, then that's the "apocalypse" scenario right there.

 

[Skinner]

Im wondering if the "leaves" claim that a second referendum could be called before the 2 yrs are up and basically say we were wrong and revert to here (presumably having lost camerons earlier deal), not sure it will be comfortable, or possible, but I suspect France and likes would welcome it as it shows leaving is futile.

 

[Edwin]

Im wondering if the "leaves" claim that a second referendum could be called before the 2 yrs are up and basically say we were wrong and revert to here (presumably having lost camerons earlier deal), not sure it will be comfortable, or possible, but I suspect France and likes would welcome it as it shows leaving is futile.

From what I read so far, Article 50 doesn't work like that. As soon as it's invoked, the UK jumps out of the EU plane (as Remain consistently warns was the case)

So the only way to dodge brexit is to annul the referendum before article 50 gets activated, then go on bended knee to the EU and use up the next few decades worth of political and diplomatic capital to persuade them to accept the fact the UK "didn't mean it". That would almost certainly involve major concessions that will play very badly here.

But it might fulfil the other purpose, of demonstrating how scary leaving can be and hence dampening down referendum rumblings across the rest of Europe.

I assume ALL the following:
A) the above scenario is v unlikely but not impossible
B) the situation would have to deteriorate so quickly that out and out panic sets in amongst both the Leave and Remain camps (Leave having belatedly come to realise what Remain knew all along: this thing will get BA-AD!)
C) there would have to be some kind of added accountability eg mass resignations of key Leave and perhaps Remain figures, and a general election soon afterwards (or a "government of national unity" cross-party coalition)
D) some kind of sop would have to be given to the electorate, eg an extra £10 billion a year pumped into the NHS and the shredding of Green Belt legislation (or mass release of brownfield sites) coupled with a massive programme of house building to tackle the housing crisis head on, all paid for by pushing the idea of balancing the budget far into the future
E) possibly added concessions such as more electoral reform such as votes for 16/17 year olds, tweaks to the FPTP system, etc so that the electorate feel they get something big and meaningful out of the referendum even if it wasn't what they thought they were voting for

All the above is highly speculative. There would almost certainly be a recession, an exodus in certain industries such as finance that just can't take the risk that it could all happen again, a real and permanent loss of face for the UK in the world, and massive widespread discontent.

And yet... Everything I outlined above might STILL turn out to be a lesser evil than activating article 50 and jumping!

 

[dougs]

I wonder if you could see the situation becoming so toxic that none of the likely leadership candidates want to step forward because it's a guaranteed career killer after a brief, heady taste of power.

None of the people in the current limelight hopefully have any chance. My family in Newcastle all voted LEAVE but they all hate Boris etc

 

[Edwin]

None of the people in the current limelight hopefully have any chance. My family in Newcastle all voted LEAVE but they all hate Boris etc

That kind of suggests they didn't think through the consequences of a Leave vote.

There was no way in a million years a Remain prime minister would have been willing to implemented a Leave agenda, which is why the electorate were repeatedly warned that a Leave vote was also effectively a vote for Boris, Gove et al.

And because of the Fixed Term Parliaments act and the way the party system works, it was not only inevitable but unstoppable. There was literally no way of voting Leave and getting anyone other than Boris, Gove et al!

 

[Edwin]

BTW you only have to glance at the news sites to realise that the Brexit vote has sped up the worlds of politics and finance to a degree unheard of in normal circumstances. Things will play out over days and weeks that might have taken years otherwise.

Remember that every time you hear a Leave campaigner calling for a "period of calm and reflection" as several did yesterday. The world isn't going to wait around while they contemplate their navels...

 

[monaghan]

There seems to be so much focus on whether we did the right thing, can it be stopped and so on. We are where we are whether you voted in out or didn't bother to vote, that's one thing everyone needs to agree on.

Now is the time to get behind the country and make it the best we can with what's been decided rather than continue the arguing and fighting we had in the run up to the vote whilst Europe is deciding what they will do without any input from us.