Corona please read very important

[Edwin]

14,576 people have died of coronavirus in hospital in the UK. But the Government also tracks COVID-19 related deaths everywhere i.e. outside of hospital settings too. (Unfortunately, the more comprehensive data is about two weeks behind compared to the hospital data.)

On the last day for which both sets of figures are available, there were:
- 3,605 total hospital deaths
- 4,526 total deaths everywhere

If you apply the same ratio to the most recent figure for hospital deaths, it implies that 18,299 people have died overall. Worse than Spain, France or Italy at the same point of their own epidemic spread (Like for like figures, starting on the day each country recorded its 50th death.):
- 17,209 in Spain
- 15,729 in France
- 14,681 in Italy.

You can explore the data for yourself. It comes from yesterday's evening press briefing. ("Global Deaths" tab of the spreadsheet document)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ny-coronavirus-press-conference-17-april-2020

 

[diablo]

14,576 people have died of coronavirus in hospital in the UK. But the Government also tracks COVID-19 related deaths everywhere i.e. outside of hospital settings too. (Unfortunately, the more comprehensive data is about two weeks behind compared to the hospital data.)

On the last day for which both sets of figures are available, there were:
- 3,605 total hospital deaths
- 4,526 total deaths everywhere

If you apply the same ratio to the most recent figure for hospital deaths, it implies that 18,299 people have died overall. Worse than Spain, France or Italy at the same point of their own epidemic spread (Like for like figures, starting on the day each country recorded its 50th death.):
- 17,209 in Spain
- 15,729 in France
- 14,681 in Italy.

You can explore the data for yourself. It comes from yesterday's evening press briefing. ("Global Deaths" tab of the spreadsheet document)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ny-coronavirus-press-conference-17-april-2020

Not like for like figures, unless Spain, France and Italy were also counting deaths as you are at the same point in their epidemic spread. We know they weren't.

In France, authorities had only been counting deaths at the country’s 600 hospitals and clinics caring for Covid-19 patients.

Italy was counting all patients who tested positive and who died, regardless of other aspects of their clinical history, following criteria from the Higher Institute of Health.

Spain does not include unconfirmed cases in senior homes and very few are tested.

https://english.elpais.com/society/...es-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html

 

[Edwin]

France counts all deaths, and hospital deaths separately as a subset.

Graphic from...
https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/...s-cov-2-covid-19-france-et-monde#block-242818

The daily briefing put out from the UK government has been using the French "all cases" figure and not the hospital figure (which, at 11,478, is much lower than our own deaths in hospital)

 

[newguy]

It wouldn't surprise me if there are under-counts in several countries. Above we can see the Spanish stats of deaths attributed to Covid-19, other deaths and also typical/expected deaths over that period of time. I know some have made a claim that deaths are being over counted but I think we know enough about covid-19 now and how unprepared with are for it, that the opposite may well be true.

 

[newguy]

Similar findings in various towns in Italy. The number of deaths occurring across the board is much higher than is typical.


And from the UK "A leading industry body fears as many as 7,500 people have died after contracting coronavirus in care homes across the country.


Care England, which represents independent care firms, said it had collected data which suggested fatalities are far higher than those released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – who recorded 217 care home deaths from the virus up until April 3.



Chief executive Prof Martin Green told the Telegraph: “If we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years’ rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19.”"

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-deaths-care-homes-7500-a4417676.html

 

[diablo]

France counts all deaths, and hospital deaths separately as a subset.

View attachment 2746

Graphic from...
https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/...s-cov-2-covid-19-france-et-monde#block-242818

The daily briefing put out from the UK government has been using the French "all cases" figure and not the hospital figure (which, at 11,478, is much lower than our own deaths in hospital)

Nobody has the full figures.

France still isn't counting all deaths. Like all governments, the best they offer is estimates, not least because not all care home deaths are tested for covid. If you don't test, you can't count.

Even if it were able to count all deaths, there is a two-week lag in getting accurate data. So, no French figures do not include "all cases".

Similarly, Spain:

https://www.ft.com/content/71e991a1-53ff-49f5-85b4-b111de7ddf6e

I'm not saying that the UK will or won't end up with more deaths: only that your basis for saying so is wrong.

 

[LCHappy]

Now Germany is committing people to mental institutions if they disagree with the lock down.

https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/coronavirus-lockdown-german-lawyer-detained-opposition

"None, however, has paid such a price for that freedom of speech as the German medical lawyer Beate Bahner, who has been committed to a psychiatric institution for publicly disagreeing with the measures and policies followed by the German government."

What is going on?

 

[diablo]

Again, only a guesstimate, but relevant to the discussion of UK care home deaths.

 

[Edwin]

Accepting the caveats covered in the last batch of tweets that made some very good points about the numbers here vs those of France, Spain and Italy, it's worth noting that the 888 more hospital deaths sadly announced a few minutes ago have taken the UK ahead of Italy at its own point in the curve.

(They also put to bed a minor conspiracy theory I've seen doing the rounds on Twitter, that the UK Government was supposedly massaging the daily figures somehow, so as to keep us always below Italy.)

 

[diablo]

Now Germany is committing people to mental institutions if they disagree with the lock down.

https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/coronavirus-lockdown-german-lawyer-detained-opposition

"None, however, has paid such a price for that freedom of speech as the German medical lawyer Beate Bahner, who has been committed to a psychiatric institution for publicly disagreeing with the measures and policies followed by the German government."

What is going on?

What's going on?

Here's another take on the story regarding Beate Bahner.

https://www.rt.com/news/485928-german-lawyer-covid-19-psychiatric-ward/

Who are the other people you mention?

 

[Edwin]

This is an excerpt from a recent Sam Harris podcast conversation, on the debate around the lockdown measures, and it summed up the argument so well for me that I took the time to type it out.

Thanks for taking the time. It's such an important consideration. I have seen many people comparing apples and oranges by harping back to the economic situation pre-lockdown as somehow representative of what would have continued had we not locked down. But as the material you highlighted put it so well, that's a pointless comparison because that past is forever lost to us. Not by our decision to engage with lockdown. But by the virus itself.

 

[LCHappy]

To use another quote from this podcast on the seeming paradox;

If social distancing works exactly as intended by lessening the contagion, the people who were against social distancing will feel vindicated in their beliefs that we overreacted.

But at no points does he seem to accept the possibility that they did overreact. We have to accept all possibilities and challenge them, especially our own.

 

[LCHappy]

What's going on?

Here's another take on the story regarding Beate Bahner.

https://www.rt.com/news/485928-german-lawyer-covid-19-psychiatric-ward/

Who are the other people you mention?

As far as I know it is only this person that has currently been publicised. I hope there isn't anymore, I hope she is released soon as this sets quite a dangerous precedent. If people don't believe that they have a right to disagree with the state, they may not go quietly next time and that is a path none of us want to go down.

 

[diablo]

As far as I know it is only this person that has currently been publicised. I hope there isn't anymore, I hope she is released soon as this sets quite a dangerous precedent. If people don't believe that they have a right to disagree with the state, they may not go quietly next time and that is a path none of us want to go down.

She has been released from hospital.

 

[Edwin]

A lot of the over-reacting/under-reacting debate reminds me of Y2K.

Those who only saw the consequences of Y2K (not much happened) deride the "scare-mongering" that led up to it.

They never understand or acknowledge that Y2K passed off relatively smoothly because of the sustained efforts of millions of people all over the world (and an estimated remedial spend in excess of $300 billion).

It was a real problem, and an eye-wateringly expensive one. But it was a "known known", easily understood and with a clear deadline, and the vast majority of institutions knuckled down, did the work, and took the hit.

Snag is, there's no counterfactual to compare to because we've only got one Earth, and in this reality the money was spent and the effort put in, and the problem was solved. But that makes it impossible to kill off the groundless idea that nothing happened because nothing was ever going to happen.

It's like people pointing at a smooth road and saying "this road's always been smooth" while ignoring the fact that there were thousands of workers with trucks and rollers and bitumen and stones labouring on it for months. It's an absolutely daft assertion that boggles the mind of anyone who was on that road crew (= anyone even tangentially connected to the IT industry in the late 90s.)

 

[bonusmedia]

Denialism is killing people.

 

[LCHappy]

A lot of the over-reacting/under-reacting debate reminds me of Y2K.

Those who only saw the consequences of Y2K (not much happened) deride the "scare-mongering" that led up to it.

They never understand or acknowledge that Y2K passed off relatively smoothly because of the sustained efforts of millions of people all over the world (and an estimated remedial spend in excess of $300 billion).

It was a real problem, and an eye-wateringly expensive one. But it was a "known known", easily understood and with a clear deadline, and the vast majority of institutions knuckled down, did the work, and took the hit.

Snag is, there's no counterfactual to compare to because we've only got one Earth, and in this reality the money was spent and the effort put in, and the problem was solved. But that makes it impossible to kill off the groundless idea that nothing happened because nothing was ever going to happen.

It's like people pointing at a smooth road and saying "this road's always been smooth" while ignoring the fact that there were thousands of workers with trucks and rollers and bitumen and stones labouring on it for months. It's an absolutely daft assertion that boggles the mind of anyone who was on that road crew (= anyone even tangentially connected to the IT industry in the late 90s.)

I get the analogy, but on the other hand we didn't shut the whole of the economy down just in case xyz happen in Y2K. In this case, we have acted as though the worst case was 100% going to happen, rather than planning for it if it did happen, but assuming it won't. That's the difference ion my opinion between this and Y2K.

 

[LCHappy]

Denialism is killing people.

I agree, people's denial that this is having negative effects on people with cancer etc is killing people.

 

[bonusmedia]

I agree, people's denial that this is having negative effects on people with cancer etc is killing people.

I'm not aware of anyone ever suggesting that, could you provide an example?

 

[LCHappy]

I'm not aware of anyone ever suggesting that, could you provide an example?

Can you show where you acknowledge it has a negative effect on them and how that can be mitigated?