Corona please read very important

[starbird]

Whatever you're views, the intro to this video is what we need to lift the spirits

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[newguy]

I do think the treatment of the elderly is the biggest travesty of all of this so far. It was blindingly obvious that care homes would become something akin to death traps, because it only takes one carer to have it for there to be a devastating effect. There should've been a national plan with rules in place that limited carers going in and out daily, to reduce eventualities like those we're now seeing.

Until it was highlighted in the media, the government didn't say a single thing about the elderly in these homes, or the growing number of deaths. It's hard not to see it as an attempt to sweep this aspect of what's happening under the carpet. I suspect that did so on account that they are low on resources such as PPE and low on a desire to help those in their later years. In my view, people in these homes, both the carers and those they care for, have a right to feel badly let down.

 

[newguy]

Do we really know how bad it has been in care homes yet? I don't believe we've had any sort of valid death rates from care homes just yet. It appears it's most assumptive on how bad it really is.

Care homes are places that are generally full of vulnerable older people. Would we really expect a low infection rate in places like that? Infection control in care homes is generally extremely hard, even in perfect conditions, especially when there's people with dementia etc. It was when I worked very briefly in a care home way back when anyway.

PPE in care homes would generally only protect the carer. The residents would likely spread it between themselves rather than the carer.

I don't have the numbers to hand but I seem to recall that they inferred that about 15% of the deaths here were in care homes. However around 5 other countries now have stated that death counts in homes account for a staggering 40% of deaths. So my point primarily is that I'm not sure that I believe the current picture that isn't painted about homes, and don't agree with it getting swept under the carpet.

I understand your point about how it's logical that it could spread fast in care homes, but that's kind of my point. That's to say that keeping it out of these homes should be a top priority. I appreciate that efforts to do so would not be foolproof, but PPE and preferably having staff members (without children -so not childcare concerns) remain in the care homes for extended periods of time are ideas worth thinking about that could save lives. With all of this talk of us (of all ages) staying home and not associating with anyone, it seems absurd to me that so little thought has been put into protecting the very people that are most at risk. Especially since, when they are struck down with it, they remain at the bottom of the list of priorities.

 

[LCHappy]

I do think the treatment of the elderly is the biggest travesty of all of this so far. It was blindingly obvious that care homes would become something akin to death traps, because it only takes one carer to have it for there to be a devastating effect. There should've been a national plan with rules in place that limited carers going in and out daily, to reduce eventualities like those we're now seeing.

Until it was highlighted in the media, the government didn't say a single thing about the elderly in these homes, or the growing number of deaths. It's hard not to see it as an attempt to sweep this aspect of what's happening under the carpet. I suspect that did so on account that they are low on resources such as PPE and low on a desire to help those in their later years. In my view, people in these homes, both the carers and those they care for, have a right to feel badly let down.

Got to be honest here and say what I see. I often see people on TV blaming care home etc for the loss of their parents due to CV. If that was one of my parents in there, I'd be round to pick them up and take them back home with me until it is all over. Either they think these places are death traps or they don't. If they think they are, then why leave your mum or dad in one?

 

[AssetDomains]

I don't have the numbers to hand but I seem to recall that they inferred that about 15% of the deaths here were in care homes. However around 5 other countries now have stated that death counts in homes account for a staggering 40% of deaths. So my point primarily is that I'm not sure that I believe the current picture that isn't painted about homes, and don't agree with it getting swept under the carpet.

I understand your point about how it's logical that it could spread fast in care homes, but that's kind of my point. That's to say that keeping it out of these homes should be a top priority. I appreciate that efforts to do so would not be foolproof, but PPE and preferably having staff members (without children -so not childcare concerns) remain in the care homes for extended periods of time are ideas worth thinking about that could save lives. With all of this talk of us (of all ages) staying home and not associating with anyone, it seems absurd to me that so little thought has been put into protecting the very people that are most at risk. Especially since, when they are struck down with it, they remain at the bottom of the list of priorities.

Looking at the numbers from Scotland there version of the ONS who are able to report quicker show 25% of people are dying in care homes. GPs aren't really seeing anyone in general never mind in care homes. Whilst I know it was imperative they took action I worry seriously about they are not messaging loud enough about the NHS being open for all other emergencies.
Whats so annoying that if we acted really early we could be following the south Korean curve. If when it was apparent this was heavily prevalent in Europe we had followed the German approach we would follow there curve.
But no we waited and now we are seeing carnage

 

[newguy]

Got to be honest here and say what I see. I often see people on TV blaming care home etc for the loss of their parents due to CV. If that was one of my parents in there, I'd be round to pick them up and take them back home with me until it is all over. Either they think these places are death traps or they don't. If they think they are, then why leave your mum or dad in one?

Essentially I agree with you for the most part. A friend of mine from southeast asia who worked here in the NHS for a while said that the thing that most shocked him about the UK, was how many elderly people get shuffled away into homes. At a time like this if I had a parent of grandparent in a care home, I'd most certainly do my level best to take them out. They're just not safe environments to be in right now.

 

[newguy]

Looking at the numbers from Scotland there version of the ONS who are able to report quicker show 25% of people are dying in care homes. GPs aren't really seeing anyone in general never mind in care homes. Whilst I know it was imperative they took action I worry seriously about they are not messaging loud enough about the NHS being open for all other emergencies.
Whats so annoying that if we acted really early we could be following the south Korean curve. If when it was apparent this was heavily prevalent in Europe we had followed the German approach we would follow there curve.
But no we waited and now we are seeing carnage

Yes, it's dispiriting to see how we are faring compared to South Korea, Germany etc. They genuinely appear to be on top of the problem whereas we've ended up in an Italy type situation. As you rightly say, there's no rowing back on some of these mistakes. We're in a difficult spot.

 

[bonusmedia]

They do have basically competent and rational leadership, which seems to be in short supply.
Frau Merkel has a doctorate in physics, she actually understands the issues and explains them well:

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Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".

 

[bonusmedia]

And here's the other end of the scale:

Sadlly, a significant proportion of folks prefer this.

 

[bluerock]

I spend a lot of time in Germany and the country is really run like an Audi engine.
I was there early last month and things were starting to develop quickly with covid. They are a week or 2 ahead of us in this and they are now recommending the use of masks.
Just wait 2 weeks and the UK Gov will follow suit.

We cannot compete with them on the testing figures as they have a large Pharma industry and scores more labs than us.

 

[Admin]

I spend a lot of time in Germany and the country is really run like an Audi engine.
I was there early last month and things were starting to develop quickly with covid. They are a week or 2 ahead of us in this and they are now recommending the use of masks.
Just wait 2 weeks and the UK Gov will follow suit.

We cannot compete with them on the testing figures as they have a large Pharma industry and scores more labs than us.

and hospital beds....

 

[newguy]

And here's the other end of the scale:

Sadlly, a significant proportion of folks prefer this.

Gotta highlight those pandemic TV ratings!

 

[Edwin]

I don't have the numbers to hand but I seem to recall that they inferred that about 15% of the deaths here were in care homes. However around 5 other countries now have stated that death counts in homes account for a staggering 40% of deaths. So my point primarily is that I'm not sure that I believe the current picture that isn't painted about homes, and don't agree with it getting swept under the carpet.

Re. care homes, Matt Hancock said yesterday that COVID-19 had been detected in 15% of care homes and that meant that 85% of them didn't have it.

But of course that's an illogical deduction because it assumes that testing has been carried out in every care home, which is very far from true. Even in the case where a care home did carry out tests, they have been rationed to 5 tests per care home. So that might turn up 1-2 cases at a high "strike rate".

Most care homes will be in the dark as far as any official confirmation connected to Government is concerned. They know their residents are dying in unprecedented numbers, but nobody's stepping up to try and count the toll correctly - let alone lower it.

Eventually we will tiptoe closer to the truth, because the ONS record all deaths weeks in arrears. But even then there will always be a heavy mist over how much of the excess can be attributed to COVID-19 - a mist that the government deliberately left descend by minimising testing so that nobody knows anything for certain.

 

[bonusmedia]

As bluerock says, our lack of testing was all about capacity. They gave the impression it was a decision but there really wasn't much choice. They should just have been honest that we were unable to do it from the start.

I think that's why it was reassuring when Hancock did his 'we get it' speech. Whether the numbers and timescale he's promised are even possible is yet to be seen, and like you say he's back to spinning nonsense now anyway.
I think the kindest take is that it comes from wanting to reassure people, and many people will find it reassuring.
Humankind cannot bear very much reality.

Lack of PPE is very different and if they mention Burberry one more time I'll be sick.

 

[Murray]

a mist that the government deliberately left descend by minimising testing so that nobody knows anything for certain.

I thought the problem was buying dud tests - https://www.newsweek.com/uk-says-mi...bought-china-unreliable-most-patients-1496506

 

[BREWSTERS]

Yes, it's dispiriting to see how we are faring compared to South Korea, Germany etc. They genuinely appear to be on top of the problem whereas we've ended up in an Italy type situation. As you rightly say, there's no rowing back on some of these mistakes. We're in a difficult spot.

Remember, Italian authorities have stated early on that their figures are of people who have died 'with cv', and that when they evaluate each death they are seeing 12% where CV was a possible cause of death. So on current figures that puts them at approx. 2660 deaths caused by CV.

The media stick with the headline grabbing numbers though.

That death figure when extrapolated to the population of Germany puts them 3660 vs. Germany's 4105 - very close.

The UK also includes deaths 'with' because it grabs the headlines. In fact not just with, but also 'presumptive positive'.

 

[BREWSTERS]

and hospital beds....

ICU beds being occupied in the UK are at an all time low for this time of year.

 

[mally]

Emergency Departments in hospitals are really quiet. My Mrs said there were 2 doctors per patients yesterday and her mid sized hospital. People were coming in covid related, but other regular things like heart attacks, strokes and injuries numbers have all fallen. Best of all the frequent flyer bullshitters have stopped coming in.

 

[newguy]

Re. care homes, Matt Hancock said yesterday that COVID-19 had been detected in 15% of care homes and that meant that 85% of them didn't have it.

But of course that's an illogical deduction because it assumes that testing has been carried out in every care home, which is very far from true. Even in the case where a care home did carry out tests, they have been rationed to 5 tests per care home. So that might turn up 1-2 cases at a high "strike rate".

Most care homes will be in the dark as far as any official confirmation connected to Government is concerned. They know their residents are dying in unprecedented numbers, but nobody's stepping up to try and count the toll correctly - let alone lower it.

Eventually we will tiptoe closer to the truth, because the ONS record all deaths weeks in arrears. But even then there will always be a heavy mist over how much of the excess can be attributed to COVID-19 - a mist that the government deliberately left descend by minimising testing so that nobody knows anything for certain.

Thanks for the added detail. Yes, I think the not testing in more homes approach is another example of trying to turn a blind eye. They'd rather not know, and rather us not know either. As you say, once a light is fully shone on this area I don't think it will look pretty.

 

[Edwin]

This is why hospitals (outside the facilities used to treat COVID-19 cases) may be really quiet at the moment: they're operating to special "COVID-19 Hospital Discharge Service Requirements" that came in on 27 March.

It's a much longer document, but the relevant summary is probably...

1.2 Unless required to be in hospital (see Annex B), patients must not remain in an NHS
bed.

1.3 Based on these criteria, acute and community hospitals must discharge all patients
as soon as they are clinically safe to do so. Transfer from the ward should happen
within one hour of that decision being made to a designated discharge area.
Discharge from hospital should happen as soon after that as possible, normally within
2 hours.

In other words, there has been a very deliberate policy of rapid emptying.

I am making no pronouncement over whether that's good or bad, merely explaining what has happened.

You can see the full document (PDF) at the link below...
https://assets.publishing.service.g...9_hospital_discharge_service_requirements.pdf