Corona please read very important

[bonusmedia]

If you scroll back through the thread, you asked me how I'd feel about having a loved one with cancer and I answered you. I'm think most people have been affected by cancer in some way, what's happening is not about lack of understanding or sympathy for cancer patients.

There is no good choice, there is no carrying on as normal, there is no world in which everything is fine. We have to accept that and deal with it.

 

[LCHappy]

If you scroll back through the thread, you asked me how I'd feel about having a loved one with cancer and I answered you. I'm think most people have been affected by cancer in some way, what's happening is not about lack of understanding or sympathy for cancer patients.

There is no good choice, there is no carrying on as normal, there is no world in which everything is fine. We have to accept that and deal with it.

But how would you mitigate the risk to them? By the way, the minute you mention anything you do for cancer patienits, you are going to get people saying that you are in denial about the seriousness of not concentrating fully on CV. They start posting pictures of inflation parachutes and stuff.

 

[LCHappy]

A better analogy might be kitting out a building with fire extinguishers, then having a fire which is dealt with by one or two extinguishers, only for someone to turn around after the fire and complain that you bought too many fire extinguishers because you only used one or two.

I disagree, another analogy would be that you have enough fire extinguishers for 10 buildings and you are still buying more whilst the walls holding up the building are crumbling.

 

[bonusmedia]

It is not reasonable to demand I provide answers on how to prioritise medical care, I'm not remotely qualified to do so, and with respect, neither are you. I would urge you to trust that the NHS are doing their very best.

Also with respect, if people are telling you you're in denial about the seriousness of CV, that might be because you keep telling people this is all an over-reaction, the death rates are made up, the authorities are lying, etc etc

 

[LCHappy]

Also with respect, if people are telling you you're in denial about the seriousness of CV, that might be because you keep telling people this is all an over-reaction, the death rates are made up, the authorities are lying, etc etc

I don't recall saying they were lying. I said they panicked and overreacted. They listened to gobby tv presenters, they didn't open themselves up to public challenge from alternative views of their scientific piers. Now we are all paying the price for that, or we will over the coming years.

But fair enough, let's have it your way, let's keep building hospitals that nobody is using in blind faith that the NHS have it right.

 

[newguy]

I do think a lot of people still can't get their head around the fact that this is happening, and that there is no easy way out of it. I think they explains some of the more alternative takes on thing. There is an ongoing pandemic, that we didn't particularly prepare or plan for beforehand, and so here we are..

 

[bonusmedia]

It's bad enough here, but in the USA they're organised and armed.
March was the biggest spike of gun sales ever, 3.7 MILLION background checks run.
And Trump seems to be actively stoking armed insurrection with his demented shouting about liberating states.
Literally terrifying.

 

[newguy]

But fair enough, let's have it your way, let's keep building hospitals that nobody is using in blind faith that the NHS have it right.

In you count homes, we've likely been losing 1000+ people a day extra as result of this pandemic. With many thousands being hospitalised and saved only due to being able to get treatment. I'd much rather enough beds and resources exist than simply assume they won't be needed because of alternative takes on the situation. If the second wave of thing thing is significant, we won't be able to conjure up capacity overnight, so it's without a doubt a good idea that additional capacity is available.

 

[LCHappy]

It's bad enough here, but in the USA they're organised and armed.
March was the biggest spike of gun sales ever, 3.7 MILLION background checks run.
And Trump seems to be actively stoking armed insurrection with his demented shouting about liberating states.
Literally terrifying.

Why is that bad? I get the feeling that people still think we are in the containment phase. Containment phase passed in February, this is on it's way through society one way or another.

As long as they aren't forcing people out of voluntary lock down against their will, what's the problem?

 

[LCHappy]

I'd much rather enough beds and resources exist than simply assume they won't be needed because of alternative takes on the situation

Those resources are coming from another sector though. It will cost lives to have them sit there doing nothing. It's empty because people won't accept what the data is showing them - in my opinion.

Oh @Admin check this out, looks like it was here last year, we are in a second wave as we said

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...-coronavirus-is-more-widespread-than-realised

 

[bonusmedia]

Are you asking why I think it's bad that there may outbreaks of violence in the USA? Surely that's obvious.

Who are these people who think we are in the containment phase? The goal is to manage and slow the spread to prevent services being overwhelmed, I know you know that.

Lockdown is not voluntary. The problem is that people who are in denial and breaking the rules are not just risking their own lives, they're risking potentially thousands of others.

Whether or not you care about people you may infect, how long we need to be in lockdown is dependent on the rates of compliance we get. Those who don't comply are making this worse and extending the length of the lockdown.

Again, it's not too late to change your mind. Again, please don't break the rules, because you may regret it for the rest of your life.

It's a natural human reaction to want certainty, but this is an uncertain situation.
Proclaiming your theories as fact doesn't make them so.

 

[LCHappy]

Are you asking why I think it's bad that there may outbreaks of violence in the USA? Surely that's obvious.

No, I'm saying it isn't a bad thing that people are going out in defiance of a lock down. The quicker it runs through the population, the quicker we all get out of it.

Who are these people who think we are in the containment phase? The goal is to manage and slow the spread to prevent services being overwhelmed, I know you know that.

They aren't over whlemed at the moment, nurses are dancing on Youtube, so much time on their hands that they are now outside the hospital in their thousands clapping themselves every Thursday night.

Again, it's not too late to change your mind. Again, please don't break the rules, because you may regret it for the rest of your life.

This charade has gone on way too long for me, I've been going out for the last week. Good to see local take aways also opening round here. If they can't trust me with an exit plan, I'll form my own. In fact, I'd now encourage people to do the same. I'll still respect social distancing though. I would never intrude on someone elses beliefs.

 

[bonusmedia]

I'm too sad to be angry. Bye.

 

[Murray]

Does anyone have any theories about supermarket workers?

I just googled "supermarket corona death" "tesco corona death" and "supermarket worker dies from corona"

There's not many articles about shop workers dying, only a few about a single person, none like "x amount have passed away" apart from one US report about 30

So it is not happening? aren't there deaths? or are news agencies told not to report it for fear of scaring shop workers away from their jobs when they're needed

 

[Edwin]

Oh @Admin check this out, looks like it was here last year, we are in a second wave as we said

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...-coronavirus-is-more-widespread-than-realised

From the Guardian article about that non peer-reviewed study: "Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

That means that even IF the study's right (huge IF) we're still at the very, very beginning of the crisis.

We've had 15,000 deaths after only 3% of the population became infected (if we accept for thirty seconds the enormously inflated study data).

So that means 5,000 deaths per 1% of the population. But that's hospital deaths. Add another 50% for all other deaths (in line with many other countries). Now you're at 7,500 per 1% of the population. (I'm not even counting any deaths from the people who've already caught it but haven't died yet because they're still in the incubation period.)

How many lots of 7,500 deaths should a progressive twenty-first century country go "oh well, never mind" about? I'd venture zero, but obviously we're already past that now. So how many lots?

Is it ok that we get to 10% of the population infected and 75,000 deaths? How about 50% of the population and 375,000 deaths?

These are just insane numbers, even if we take the super-inflated study figures at face value. No rational Government could countenance them.

And neither should we.

 

[LCHappy]

That Guardian story is missing the full story and context behind this Stanford Uni experiment. There is a lot that it doesn't mention, for example the reason they did the test in the first place.

The reason they did the test was because California was seeing lower death rates than NY. They wondered, why would communties with more links to China end up with less problems and not more, it didn't make sense. The context for the study was the theory that a version of CV19 passed through last year and was misdiagnosed as a really bad flu season, when in fact it was really CV19.

It wasn't done to find what percentage had herd immunity, it was done to test the theory that CV19 had been through already.

This is the reports on the study, before the study reported https://abc7.com/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-in-california-doctor-shares-his-thoughts/6093912/

Also one from Cambridge yesterday finding grounds to substantiate that theory.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...wuhan-cambridge-university-scientists-covid19

It was here earlier than thought in one strain or another.

 

[Murray]

@Edwin what do you think draws you into Brexit and Corona topics and how do you feel that might effect your biases when researching/reporting?

 

[Edwin]

Does anyone have any theories about supermarket workers?

I just googled "supermarket corona death" "tesco corona death" and "supermarket worker dies from corona"

There's not many articles about shop workers dying, only a few about a single person, none like "x amount have passed away" apart from one US report about 30

So it is not happening? aren't there deaths? or are news agencies told not to report it for fear of scaring shop workers away from their jobs when they're needed

I don't have a direct answer, but let's consider the stats.

13,918 people have died of coronavirus in hospital in England.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...ID-19-all-announced-deaths-18-April-2020.xlsx

Of those 13,918 people, 7,212 were aged 80+.

That leaves a maximum of 6,706 victims of working age (in practice many people in 60-79 bracket won't be working any more, so this will be an overestimate - but let's gloss over that for simplicity).

UK supermarkets employ 1,109,893 people.
https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/market-research-reports/supermarkets-industry/

32,985,000 people are employed in the UK.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...mploymentandemployeetypes/timeseries/mgrz/lms

That means that supermarket employees make up 3.36% of all employees.

And that means a theoretical maximum of 225 deaths from amongst those working in supermarkets. (Assuming they're not going to be more likely to die than other types of worker.)

Of course, the original 6,706 number is way too large because it includes everyone who died of COVID-19 aged 0-79. But this at least gets us an "order of magnitude" idea of what might have happened.

 

[Edwin]

@Edwin what do you think draws you into Brexit and Corona topics and how do you feel that might effect your biases when researching/reporting?

I am explicitly not going to answer that. Let's not start stuff related to Brexit again here, please. Thanks!

 

[Admin]

Those resources are coming from another sector though. It will cost lives to have them sit there doing nothing. It's empty because people won't accept what the data is showing them - in my opinion.

Oh @Admin check this out, looks like it was here last year, we are in a second wave as we said

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...-coronavirus-is-more-widespread-than-realised

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