Corona please read very important

[newguy]

An early lockdown seems like it would delay things not prevent them; as soon as you started to ease restrictions it would have made the whole initial lockdown pointless

Getting the timing right is definitely a hard needle to thread because you only how how right or wrong you got it after the fact. I get what you're saying, in that high numbers now may make things easier further down the line. At least now hospitals are gradually getting better prepared too, and so when restrictions are eased there will 'hopefully' still be access to treatment even if the numbers start to rise again.

 

[Murray]

Getting the timing right is definitely a hard needle to thread because you only how how right or wrong you got it after the fact. I get what you're saying, in that high numbers now may make things easier further down the line. At least now hospitals are gradually getting better prepared too, and so when restrictions are eased there will 'hopefully' still be access to treatment even if the numbers start to rise again.

Yeah, as best as I've understood nothing has been about total prevention more just staggering the cases

Controlled burn

flattening the curve

etc

 

[AssetDomains]

An early lockdown seems like it would delay things not prevent them; as soon as you started to ease restrictions it would have made the whole initial lockdown pointless

See my twitter link above
But not pointless in my opinion. It would have bought time for more antiviral trials to be conducted. HIV Antivirals have been showing some promise in our ITU albeit very small subset of patients still a glimmer of hope for a treatment in these dark times if similar is being seen nationwide.
It would have bought more time for an Adequate testing network to be built up.
With adequate testing you can take the test trace quarantine approach that has been hugely successful in south Korea.
Because this things spreads exponentially though delaying lockdown means far more people now have contracted it died from it than needed to. And it will take longer to get back down to a number were we have capacity to do testing and tracing.

 

[newguy]

Yeah, as best as I've understood nothing has been about total prevention more just staggering the cases

Controlled burn

flattening the curve

etc

Yes exactly. In an amoral society, there would be a case for not locking anything down and just carrying as normal and moving beyond this as swiftly as possible. It would be a harrowing period of time though.

I'm pleased that the delay has allowed us to get somewhat ahead of the curve, increasing capacity to deal with the numbers etc. It's still all a bit surreal though, as none of us have a frame of reference for something like this.

 

[Murray]

See my twitter link above
But not pointless in my opinion.

I couldn't be bothered to do the fact checking once I started reading

Ireland closed schools March 13th

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11157853/what-time-irelands-coronavirus-lockdown-start/

And went into total lockdown 27th or 28th

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/stay-home-varadkar-urges-irish-in-drastic-lockdown

How many cases and deaths were in Ireland at that point? how does that compare to the UK?

How many international visitors/returnees did the UK receive in that time vs Ireland?

So many reasons Ireland might be doing better right now, but they may have more cases after they lift restrictions

I don't think we can really compare until after it's all played out

 

[starbird]

Trump to use real data not Bill Gates and W.H.O rigged model predictions

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[LCHappy]

I think maybe your missing my point I'm just saying for people like Brewsters who thinks this all been made up to bring about a one world government. These figures surely say covid is definitely real.
I'm sure now the conspiracy will move to bill gates and the illuminati created covid in a lab to grab power.
As for the economy the lockdown merits weren't about these 6000 poor souls. Its about there not being 60'000 - 120'000 extra people that didn't die that week.
If you accept the scientific estimates that 250'000 to 500'000 would have died if we had done nothing and now they think 20'000.
If that many people had died in a week the NHS would have been crippled and it wouldn't have just been largely the elderly who passed.

Oh ok, I'm with you. I'm not a believer in that stuff just because people generally aren't clever enough to pull it off. Plus you would always end up with a Snowden type character who would whistleblow. Could some group be taking advantage of something natural, possibly but I have no evidence of it.

I don't doubt it is real, it is a killer. I just don't think the numbers are as high as they say or as significant as they say, not a conspiracy just the fog of a fast moving incident. My opinion is that when it balances out over a few months, we will see that killing the economy was the wrong thing to do, social distancing would have done it.

 

[AssetDomains]

I couldn't be bothered to do the fact checking once I started reading

Ireland closed schools March 13th

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11157853/what-time-irelands-coronavirus-lockdown-start/

And went into total lockdown 27th or 28th

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/stay-home-varadkar-urges-irish-in-drastic-lockdown

How many cases and deaths were in Ireland at that point? how does that compare to the UK?

How many international visitors/returnees did the UK receive in that time vs Ireland?

So many reasons Ireland might be doing better right now, but they may have more cases after they lift restrictions

I don't think we can really compare until after it's all played out

How about another comparison UK vs South Korea. Much closer population sizes but they have much higher visitors numbers from China but they took this thing seriously from the start.
United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:
93,873
Deaths:
12,107
South Korea
Coronavirus Cases:
10,564
Deaths:
222
They didn't even have to go into full lockdown because they employed mass testing from the start they didn't give the virus chance to spread whichever way you look at it lockdown timing / or testing are government completely messed up its response to this thing. As a result tens of thousands brits have paid for that this month with there lives and the rest of us will be paying for it financially for years to come all because of Boris, Cummings and the other cronies dithered in there response and thought they knew better.

 

[newguy]

How about another comparison UK vs South Korea. Much closer population sizes but they have much higher visitors numbers from China but they took this thing seriously from the start.
United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:
93,873
Deaths:
12,107
South Korea
Coronavirus Cases:
10,564
Deaths:
222
They didn't even have to go into full lockdown because they employed mass testing from the start they didn't give the virus chance to spread whichever way you look at it lockdown timing / or testing are government completely messed up its response to this thing. As a result tens of thousands brits have paid for that this month with there lives and the rest of us will be paying for it financially for years to come all because of Boris, Cummings and the other cronies dithered in there response and thought they new better.

Good points. I think a combination of not knowing when to pull the trigger in terms of the lockdown and also the lack of testing has resulted in the differences between certain nations. Germany too seem very up on the testing.

I know the stats stand for themselves, but I'm surprised there is such a huge difference really, as you'd think in all countries enough people would be asymptomatic (so likely not tested - yet still contagious) to throw a spanner in the works.

 

[starbird]

How about another comparison UK vs South Korea. Much closer population sizes but they have much higher visitors numbers from China but they took this thing seriously from the start.
United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:
93,873
Deaths:
12,107
South Korea
Coronavirus Cases:
10,564
Deaths:
222
They didn't even have to go into full lockdown because they employed mass testing from the start they didn't give the virus chance to spread whichever way you look at it lockdown timing / or testing are government completely messed up its response to this thing. As a result tens of thousands brits have paid for that this month with there lives and the rest of us will be paying for it financially for years to come all because of Boris, Cummings and the other cronies dithered in there response and thought they new better.

In February I posted on a BBC post that testing and tracing, especially with inbound international flights was urgently needed. I could not agree more with that you are saying. Models are flawed but you'd think common sense would have prevailed, it didn't. I wanted a lockdown in feb with a ban on international flights. If you saw johnson's face in the press conference the day after the 250k death model came out he was visibly shaken.

The US has reacted well given it's slow start, the UK just hasn't caught up yet in regards to testing. Ironically the same scientific advisers who recommended herd immunity are still in charge.

A huge amount of cases are asymptomatic, indeed many get the virus and are unaware they even had it. Only mass testing will get the true numbers regarding this. Even today in China they use temp scans which are useless to detect asymptomatic cases.

 

[LCHappy]

How about another comparison UK vs South Korea. Much closer population sizes but they have much higher visitors numbers from China but they took this thing seriously from the start.
United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:
93,873
Deaths:
12,107
South Korea
Coronavirus Cases:
10,564
Deaths:
222
They didn't even have to go into full lockdown because they employed mass testing from the start they didn't give the virus chance to spread whichever way you look at it lockdown timing / or testing are government completely messed up its response to this thing. As a result tens of thousands brits have paid for that this month with there lives and the rest of us will be paying for it financially for years to come all because of Boris, Cummings and the other cronies dithered in there response and thought they new better.

There are other explanations for that. Take a look at California, a state that has a much higher connection to China than New York due to it's communities and location being closer to China. They employed the same restrictions as New York but have had a much lower fallout. It can't be down to testing, it has to be something else.

Stanford University theories that the virus has already been through California last year and herd immunity is much more advanced. If that is true, the same would apply to South Korea. Stanford are due to report on their tests in the coming weeks.

 

[AssetDomains]

Good points. I think a combination of not knowing when to pull the trigger in terms of the lockdown and also the lack of testing has resulted in the differences between certain nations. Germany too seem very up on the testing.

I know the stats stand for themselves, but I'm surprised there is such a huge difference really, as you'd think in all countries enough people would be asymptomatic (so likely not tested - yet still contagious) to throw a spanner in the works.

That's were the tracing approach came in with South Korea they went hardcore on tracing everyone who came near to a confirmed case tested and isolated them even if asymptomatic were need be.
They used mobile phone data credit card records there extensive CCTV records to trace contacts.
I'm guessing many of here in the west would baulk at these measurers the undermining of civil liberties and privacy but it was highly effective and probably what we will have to do when we get are numbers down to a level were we can lift the lockdown.

 

[Murray]

South Korea
Coronavirus Cases:
10,564
Deaths:
222

Those are pretty surprising numbers, they seem impossible, Japan also apparently has only 143 dead

There must be something more to it than testing surely? I will have to look into this more later

 

[BREWSTERS]

Early last week the extrapolated ratio showed that Sweden had over 67% of the number of deaths as the UK.

This morning that is down to just over 62%.

And today that figure is under 55%

UK and Sweden both discovered first cases in late January - UK has been locked down since 24 Mar 20 - Sweden hasn't.

-----------------------------

I'm struggling to find any relevance to the testing issue. What difference does mass testing make when;

1. The tests don't indicate viral load, ie if a person has enough of the virus to actually make them ill.

2. The overwhelming majority of people have little to no illness from it, so knowing they're positive makes no difference if we're all locked down anyway.

3. The tests don't isolate covid 19 from other common forms of coronavirus (please correct me on this if that's wrong...and say which test is used).

4. 'Presumptive positive' cases are being included in official numbers.

 

[newguy]

That's were the tracing approach came in with South Korea they went hardcore on tracing everyone who came near to a confirmed case tested and isolated them even if asymptomatic were need be.
They used mobile phone data credit card records there extensive CCTV records to trace contacts.
I'm guessing many of here in the west would baulk at these measurers the undermining of civil liberties and privacy but it was highly effective and probably what we will have to do when we get are numbers down to a level were we can lift the lockdown.

It does sound like they've taken it to the nth degree, and I guess you're right, in that these efforts likely reach a tipping point where infections can be kept at bay. We certainly seem to see that in some countries anyway. I hadn't really considered that with very extensive testing you could potentially pick up a lot of asymptomatic people (By say testing family members of someone known to have covid-19). We are lacking on the testing front, there's no doubt about that.

 

[diablo]

Love this from Twitter

Dublin Airport then post five more facts before this tweet:

 

[diablo]

Those are pretty surprising numbers, they seem impossible, Japan also apparently has only 143 dead

There must be something more to it than testing surely? I will have to look into this more later

South Korea has experience of dealing with virus outbreaks and ran a big mock pandemic exercise in December. They also began extensively testing a week before finding a positive test.

Basically, very on the ball.

 

[starbird]

Even the bbc, a paid shill for mass media sometimes have something more factual

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

It goes on to say, there is no way to determine how much coronavirus played a part in the deaths recorded as coronavirus. The testing is flawed until the exact cause of death can be fully determined. Most people have coronaviruses in them, just no where near enough to hurt us. The current test magnifies everything being tested, see the obvious flaw.

 

[starbird]

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Watch the doctor from 19.34 into the video, very interesting ...... (stock up on your zinc supplements)

 

[signature]

A clip I found interesting about Covid-19.

I don't think we can ignore the fact that loads of information about this type of virus has been floating around for about 5 years and the current events are been played out in a way that create suspicions.

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