Corona please read very important

[keys]

With such an abundance of (expert/ public) opinion and relentless media output, there is scope to support a wide range of conclusions on the situation with China Flu.

Video footage and advice from front line medical staff in Italy trying to deal with the avalanche of desperately sick patients is both convincing and disturbing in my view.

It is difficult accept radical change and restrictions, to cope with a massive problem which is reality on other countries, but not here yet.

I hope that many lives will be saved by the efforts of responsible caring people, both professionals and the public. We will always have a selfish, indifferent, ignorant minority along with the consequences of their behaviour. Hopefully some them will heed advice before they mourn the sudden loss of elderly family and friends.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I genuinely don't understand the thought process of anyone who says it's no worse than the flu. I say that, not to be argumentative, but as a simple statement of fact.

We have seasonal flu every winter. Do events get cancelled? Is sport - all sport - put on hold? Do people get ordered to stay at home? Do schools close? Does the Army get called out? Do supermarkets implement rationing? Do retired medical staff get called up? Do the global financial markets crash to an unprecedented degree? Do airlines axe between 50% and 90% of their schedules?

All around the world, just about every event you can name has been cancelled. Life has been turned upside down for billions of people.

Here is a tiny tiny subset of what's been cancelled or closed: GCSEs and A-levels, nurseries, schools, universities, Eurovision, Glastonbury, BAFTAs, elective surgeries, English Heritage properties, National Trust properties, museums, art galleries, cinemas, concerts, plays, music festivals, Stonehenge Spring Equinox, many flights, Brighton Festival, Duxford Air Show, Grand National, Hay Literature Festival, Princess Beatrice’s wedding, football, rugby, PGA Championship, tennis majors, parkruns, Suffolk Show, many ferry crossings, Pride Edinburgh, literary festivals, Brexit talks, exhibitions & trade shows, mosque prayers, church services, graduation ceremonies, U3A events, Boat Race, E3 game show, Playboy Magazine, Cannes Film Festival, filming of many films and TV series, EastEnders, F1 races, etc.

So how can you sit there with a straight face and say "it's just the flu"? That's to deny every single piece of evidence in front of you.

This isn't evidence of a huge threat from CV.

Unless you believe that reaction proves cause?

Using that rationale, can we deduce that because events don't get cancelled year in year out, that thousands of people a year don't die from flu? It's the same logic.

A quote from President of the Higher Institute of Health Italy, Silvio Brusaferro;​

​

"Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years - 80.3 to be exact - and are essentially predominantly male," said Brusaferro. "Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases. Only two people were not presently carriers of diseases "​

It'd be interesting to know the ages of those two people.

-----------------------------------​

As already mentioned above by LCHappy...something else is afoot here. A few weeks ago in Davos, the World Economic Forum, there was talk of the world apparently needing a new economic model. Coincidence?

I'm not doing this to be inflammatory. Dig behind the headlines and the reaction far exceeds the problem. By far. So that means there is another reason for the reaction. Anyone who doesn't consider that, should.

 

[Nigel]

OK - Here's a quote from Iain Dale on Conservative Home who has found out his friend Theo Usherwood who is 35, is seriously ill:

'Half an hour ago I learned that my dear friend Theo Usherwood, LBC’s Political Editor, is in hospital with pneumonia, and suspected of having Covid-19. I knew he was ill, but not to that extent.

I don’t know if my reaction to learning this was typical or not, but I am feeling very emotional and somewhat tearful. Theo is 35. He’s fit. He’s not in a high risk category. I’m 57 and in a high-risk category and very unfit.'

https://www.conservativehome.com/th...-moment-when-the-virus-became-real-to-me.html

 

[Edwin]

Stop with the conspiracy theories.

Just stop. Please.

They make it impossible to discuss the unprecedented global crisis rationally. As such, it's no better than trolling, no matter how much you may personally believe them.

Thank you.

 

[Edwin]

Please be sensible. Buy what you need. Don't buy more than you need. The video in the tweet below is hard to watch, but it mirrors the experience countless people are having all over the UK at the moment.

https://twitter.com/BBCLookNorth/status/1240687667265843202

 

[Edwin]

A person has been arrested on the Isle of Man for failing to self-quarantine for 14 days after arriving on the island.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...g-to-self-isolate-on-the-isle-of-man-11960799

(I mention this only because the Coronavirus Bill which Parliament should be passing very soon includes measures to arrest people in the UK if they're suspected of being infected or otherwise breaching guidelines laid down.)

 

[BREWSTERS]

No Edwin, I know you'd rather everyone believed what you do, and your views are based as much on belief if not more, than mine.

This is rational discussion. The measures being imposed far far far outweigh the threat given what we KNOW.

We KNOW this could be dangerous to the elderly, and /or those with serious pre-existing conditions. We DON'T KNOW any quantified increased risk, instead assumptions are being made.
We KNOW that it is not a threat to the vast majority of the population.
We KNOW that the same is true of the flu, and we know that kills 10,000s per year, so why no restrictions or hysteria surrounding that?
We KNOW that coronavirus has been around for years and has been present in a percentage of the population when tested.
We KNOW that the World Economic Forum, people were pushing the need for a 'new economic model' (to quote Prince Charles).


If you want to bandy around that overused phrase 'conspiracy theory', which is only ever used to shut anyone up with opposing views, then tell me...which of this is theory?

 

[Murray]

These are some interesting figures comparing South Korea to Italy, taking this from a CNN article

South Korea - 3,692 tests per million people as of March, mortality - 0.6%

Italy - 826 tests per million and its mortality among those with diagnosed infection is about 10 times higher, with more than 1,000 people dead from the disease

28.6% of the Italian population is 60 years old or older (second in the world after Japan at 33%)

South Korea only 18.5% of the population are 60 and older

United Kingdom is 23.9% which is quite low for Europe however there are 6 million more people in the UK than Italy

Other than age a Chinese study said the main health issues that put you at risk are cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension

 

[BREWSTERS]

You say that the ICU your partner is working on in Glasgow had 23 patients who were already on the ICU with other conditions, and yet now they have CV too. You need to tell the press which hospital that is, its clearly got a serious problem with virus control. I certainly wouldn't like to be in that ICU, that's for sure!

Sorry, my mistake - they had 23 patients on the ICU that have been tested for CV due to the nature of their current conditions. She runs the out-patients dept...not the ICU.

 

[Siusaidh]

A few weeks ago in Davos, the World Economic Forum, there was talk of the world apparently needing a new economic model. Coincidence?

The world DOES need a new economic model, but that has NOTHING to do with the tragic consequences of a virus that has turned the daily lives of people all over the world upside down.

When it comes to Covid-19, there is NO Davos conspiracy behind it. It is a virus which has tragically spun out of control.

What we urgently need in the coming 6 months (or longer) is NOT conspiracy theories about Bilderberg, DAVOS, Illuminati, or Lizard People etc. It's not even inter-political point scoring.

What we DO need is calm, practical, collaborative responses, recognising the serious nature of this virus. I'm a nurse who's worked in critical care. Lots of people with very serious and vulnerable health conditions pass through crises and live a further 10, 15 or 25 years. In this present crisis, people with lesser chronic illnesses are (in some cases) dying: not because they were going to die anyway, but because once this particular virus takes hold, their particular body systems get overwhelmed.

As someone else pointed out, maybe 30 or 40% of people in this country have diagnosed 'underlying health conditions'. It's a very wide umbrella term. We are most definitely not talking about people who would have died anyway.

Anyone is entitled to their opinion. I will listen to those who recognise the reality of this crisis situation - which is fundamentally a tragic, highly contagious virus. Of course people should take this seriously.

I frankly ignore conspiracy theorists, jumping on this human tragedy, and exploiting it to further some idea of a world conspiracy by the super-rich to 'create' this whole crisis and panic.

As someone said higher up this thread, we need to be tighter, we need to lock down more, we need to test more, we need to requisition whatever we need to increase NHS capacity, and I'd argue we need the military to provide transport and manpower to get deliveries of food to locked down people, and supplies to care and hospital staff.

Large numbers of people are going to die unnecessarily because we haven't acted rigidly enough. People are still going to pubs and becoming spreaders. Why? We have insufficient testing kits. Why?

But at this point it can't be a political point-scoring blame game, and certainly conspiracy theories are profoundly unhelpful. We just need to reduce to near-zero our interactions - to stop the exponential increase of cases in its tracks (or at least reduce the rate)... to buy us time to equip hospitals etc with ventilators, PPE, to prepare more staff with essential skills.

It's all practical.

It is not David Icke.

 

[Murray]

I think personally I'm quite lucky I started to get my health in order in the past year, there was a good thread where we all talked about it

https://www.acorndomains.co.uk/threads/health-check.158693/page-6#post-620323

Especially vitamin D which I've read helps prevent(or prepare?) for respiratory illness and you wont have been able to get in the UK for months

 

[websaway]

Stop with the conspiracy theories.

Just stop. Please.

They make it impossible to discuss the unprecedented global crisis rationally. As such, it's no better than trolling, no matter how much you may personally believe them.

Thank you.

surely one is allowed one's opinion.
Conspiracy is surely an interest to
minorities and minority following can
be very lucrative. He could have
a twitter account and play to the
people who agree with him or even
write a book to keep the subject
alive long after the crisis is finished
and continue to flog a dead horse.

 

[Siusaidh]

Especially vitamin D

Many people don't realise just how badly significantly low levels of Vitamin D can affect their health and well-being. In the UK, many people should be taking Vitamin D supplements, especially in winter months, along with boosting diets with oily fish like mackerel etc.

 

[BREWSTERS]

We know that the scientific consensus across the World's leading scientists is that the threat of exponential growth on the graphs of cases and deaths is very realistic without such measures being imposed.

Until and unless it can be quantified if any death has been directly attributed to CV, no-one knows this.

Leaving the increased risk discussion to one side, we know that health services are already stretched in many countries, so a huge peak in any type of disease is going to have a huge knock on effect for everyone needing healthcare, regardless of whether they are indeed coronavirus cases or not.

Agreed, health services are already stretched to breaking point. The hysteria surrounding CV has created panic with many people turning up at hospitals because they are showing some or all symptoms. But the symptoms are very similar across several diseases.

As I understand it, this is a new virus, and it's not yet fully understood how it could be developing, so aside from the moral discussion of protecting the most vulnerable, we don't yet know if this could become a threat for other demographics.

True, but we're learning more about it day by day, and there is a large enough sample to start saying with an amount of certainty who the at risk groups are.

We have a vaccine for the flu, and there's a known certainty around it, it's been studied for decades so we can prepare for it each flu season. Health services can prepare and plan for the flu, as well as populations. We know Covid-19 has a lot of uncertainties at this time.

Flu mutates so each year there could be a new strain, which the vaccines don't give immunity to. Hence the previous fird flu, swine flu scares. But none of the panic we're seeing now.

We know that Covid-19 was first identified on 31 December 2019.

Do we?


Again, my posts aren't intended to flame. They're a different point of view.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Many people don't realise just how badly significantly low levels of Vitamin D can affect their health and well-being. In the UK, many people should be taking Vitamin D supplements, especially in winter months, along with boosting diets with oily fish like mackerel etc.

And getting direct sunlight, especially through the eyes.

 

[BREWSTERS]

The world DOES need a new economic model, but that has NOTHING to do with the tragic consequences of a virus that has turned the daily lives of people all over the world upside down.

Why, what's wrong with capitalism? Forget it...that's too off topic.

In this present crisis, people with lesser chronic illnesses are (in some cases) dying: not because they were going to die anyway, but because once this particular virus takes hold, their particular body systems get overwhelmed.

You're stating this as fact. What figures do you have that support it please?

 

[Murray]

Many people don't realise just how badly significantly low levels of Vitamin D can affect their health and well-being. In the UK, many people should be taking Vitamin D supplements, especially in winter months, along with boosting diets with oily fish like mackerel etc.

Yes my vitamin D level was 14 nmol/l in November 2018 which is a which is a severe deficiency and I felt terrible

Low energy, any type of physical activity would take a long time to recover from, irregular sleep pattern, sleeping 10+ hours and still feeling very tired, mentally it made me very apathetic towards life and my own health, inhibited my ability to cope with stress

I suspect I had low vitamin D for probably years

I think everyone in the UK should take a vitamin D supplement during the winter, no chance of harming you unless you're taking 10,000iu+ a day, and probably taking 1000iu a day would be sufficient for most

Personally I take a BetterYou oral spray which is 3000iu, my level is currently
152 nmol/l as of last month

 

[Murray]

And getting direct sunlight, especially through the eyes.

In the UK, sunlight doesn't contain enough UVB radiation in winter (October to early March) for our skin to be able to make vitamin D

^ Taken from NHS

 

[Siusaidh]

swine flu scares. But none of the panic we're seeing now.

Hi Brewsters,

Please don't think I want to flame you or anything. You have your views. Others have theirs.

On the reference to swine flu, I think it's a question of scale, contagion and CCU impact when it's compared to Covid-19.

I was working in Critical Care during the Swine Flu outbreak, and at any one time we had 1 or sometimes 2 patients on a 24-bed unit with it. Yes, it was nasty, and also very challenging, with need to take precautions, and to change the airflow systems in the siderooms.

However, we're now facing a situation where in a 24-bed unit there could be 48 patients needing treatment at any given time during the crisis. It's a vastly different scale.

In my view we need societal lock down, and we need to prepare (should have been prepared 2 months ago) for possible makeshift added bedspaces, sending routine ops patients home, and conversion of theatres.

It may not come to the absolute worst, but the less we close down social interaction at a national level, the greater risk that this crisis will be catastrophic in the number of people who will die early, when they and their families could have lived happily for many years to come.

Yes, most of the very worst outcomes are with people who have "underlying health conditions" but that's a very wide umbrella term. Most people with "underlying health conditions" live on for 10, 20 or 30 years. And there are maybe 30-40% of the whole population who have "underlying health conditions". Yes, certain conditions make you even more vulnerable, but when officials say all those who died had underlying health conditions, that is a very wide statement, which may reassure healthy people, but should by no means encourage us to drop our guard.

Swine flu was never like this, in scale and impact. The impact is great, not because people want it to be great, but because it is great - in terms of numbers arriving in CCU even now (compared to swine flu) and it hasn't even started here properly yet. Fact: death is coming to the UK on a scale which threatens to overwhelm the NHS.

That's not just 'flu'.

 

[Alan Fletcher]

Agree with all of the above. There needs to be a full lockdown for 30 days - as difficult as that would be for people, it's the only way that the pace can be slowed down long enough so the NHS isn't swamped. I imagine that was the plan since last week, it's just they are waiting for the numbers to peak before bringing it in. The problem is, is that some people are that thick, they will breach it and start venturing out again, so it needs to be implemented at the 11th hour at peak infection in order for it to work. Like everything in society, it has to be designed around how the most stupid people may behave sadly. I think anything under 100K people dead in the UK will be a massive win, without these steps, that could have been up at a million. Stay at home, wash your hands, don't stockpile food, support the NHS, look after the elderly in the community. Simple.