Corona please read very important

[Edwin]

So where did the rest of the people in China suddenly get immunity from? How come they can suddenly now all go back to work? I genuinely don't understand why you think things are different now compared to when nobody had it in December 2019.

The virus doesn't live forever. If the people it infects don't spread it, it dies out after 2-4 weeks. If nobody is exposed to anyone carrying the virus during all of that time (which is what happened in China because everyone was indoors and I mean everyone) then the only source of "fresh" virus is outside the area.

Which again exactly matches China's experience: the only new case of the virus yesterday was in travellers coming into the country. Nobody inside China infected anyone else.

Does that mean the virus is beaten? No. Get complacent, slip and allow a few infected people without symptoms to wander through the population, and it will flare up all over again.

But so long as they exercise super duper care with all incoming travellers, they should be safe to slowly resume life as normalish, albeit with more focus on hand hygiene, and much more medical monitoring.

They've weathered the situation so well, they've sent a million face masks to help Italy, and are sending 2 million to the EU along with tonnes of urgently needed medical equipment. Two months ago, they were gratefully accepting mask donations from other nations.

But all of the above only works if everyone is isolated.

 

[Edwin]

I think stricter measures will probably come, but personally I think we should give people and communities 4 or 5 days' notice to get ready, and then lock down.

Even 5 minutes notice might be 5 minutes too much. The Paris lockdown was telegraphed about 24 hours before, and over 20,000 Parisians fled the city to avoid being blocked in. And suddenly the cases of coronavirus spiked all over France, and a big problem became a gigantic one.

 

[ian]

But all of the above only works if everyone is isolated.

And there is the problem, many won't follow the guidance. Those countries that have a more controlled way of life (the likes of China, Korea etc) will get over this quicker. We need an enforced martial law approach otherwise we are in for a very long ride.

 

[LCHappy]

Even 5 minutes notice might be 5 minutes too much. The Paris lockdown was telegraphed about 24 hours before, and over 20,000 Parisians fled the city to avoid being blocked in. And suddenly the cases of coronavirus spiked all over France, and a big problem became a gigantic one.

I think they are expecting a similar wave to hit Southern Italy right about now. I can't remember if people in Northern Italy tried escaping the outbreak or the lock down, but they fled and it could be bad.

 

[Murray]

Which again exactly matches China's experience

I wouldn't believe anything China says personally, they will always PR everything to reflect well on the government

 

[LCHappy]

I wouldn't believe anything China says personally, they will always PR everything to reflect well on the government

Imagine if they have overplayed this and scared the life out of the rest of the world. I don't get the conspiracy theory that they put a live virus out there to drop the stockmarket, but could they have overplayed the seriousness of a mild one?

I don't understand them reopening their factories as though nothing has happened if it was so serious. Oh, this is going to make a great film one day.

I'm still washing my hands though

 

[Edwin]

And there is the problem, many won't follow the guidance. Those countries that have a more controlled way of life (the likes of China, Korea etc) will get over this quicker. We need an enforced martial law approach otherwise we are in for a very long ride.

Yes. Absolutely hate to say it, but yes.

I was reading an article this morning saying that ticket sales for theatre productions had dropped 92%.

And my immediate reaction was, why isn't that 100%? How can the Government sit by while selfish people are still going to open theatres.

I feel desperately sad for those losing their livelihoods, but it genuinely puts everyone else at more risk.

 

[LCHappy]

I feel desperately sad for those losing their livelihoods, but it genuinely puts everyone else at more risk.

But if people don't go out to work, can't afford heating for hot water for a decent wash, how many is that going to kill from other bugs? People who have to eat less, become weaker and suffer from malnutrition.

It's a multi factored threat that needs to be balanced. They can't just concentrate on this in my opinion.

 

[newguy]

I wouldn't believe anything China says personally, they will always PR everything to reflect well on the government

Yes, I don't doubt the tenancy to be subservient to the government has resulted in a adherence to the rules that most countries would envy. It does seem rather far fetched though, that 'nobody' in China spread the Coronavirus to anybody else yesterday.

Logically I think a very significant proportion of our population, and that of other countries will eventually get this before a vaccine sees the light of day. On the plus side a Japanese anti viral seemed to work well to diminish the effects of the Coronavirus so that's promising. And it may turn out that vastly more people had this virus than is known, in which case that may give us a new perspective. When I look at the body count in Italy though, I'd say this is clearly something that those in at risk groups should be very concerned about.

 

[newguy]

One other thing, people seem to be pointing towards the fact that most of those dying have pre-existing conditions, but that obviously would be the case. Obesity and diabetes are two such conditions and they are very widespread, especially in the UK and US so there's only so much comfort (if that's the right word) that can be drawn from this fact.

 

[Edwin]

Things are getting out of hand so quickly on the business side of things that you have Iain Duncan-Smith (!!!!!) demanding higher benefits and a faster payment process.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-government-pay-wages

 

[Murray]

On the topics of schools closing, I just read something that made me realise I was looking at it from quite a privileged position

Sadly there's a lot of low income families where the school dinner might be the best meal they get all day, now that's gone for them

 

[Edwin]

On the topics of schools closing, I just read something that made me realise I was looking at it from quite a privileged position

Sadly there's a lot of low income families where the school dinner might be the best meal they get all day, now that's gone for them

In some areas (sadly too few) the local council is offering the affected children a food voucher so that their family can buy them some food to replace the meal they're losing from the school. One council I saw was giving £20 a week. Seems to be area by area rather than a cross-UK arrangement.

 

[Edwin]

This is also a huge part of the problem (figures from Twitter, but I am assuming they're correct - broadly look right)

2 weeks of sick pay...
Austria £574.70
Germany £574.70
Sweden £459.76
Netherlands £402.29
Spain £241.37
UK £188.50

 

[BREWSTERS]

One other thing, people seem to be pointing towards the fact that most of those dying have pre-existing conditions, but that obviously would be the case. Obesity and diabetes are two such conditions and they are very widespread, especially in the UK and US so there's only so much comfort (if that's the right word) that can be drawn from this fact.

Some figures relating to that... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

[LCHappy]

Would be wrong to give money to business to employ their staff. A lot of owners (Richard Branson etc) will take the cash and still make their staff leave unpaid.

Best way would be to put money in people's bank accounts, they could reverse the tax system. pay people 50% of their last taxable wage.

This will be abused if the government give it to someone to pass it on to someone else.

This could be another Grenfell with fraudsters taking the pee and charities creaming it off the top, resulting in the real victims getting nothing.

 

[Edwin]

Apparently 43% of UK adults (20 million people) have some kind of documented "underlying medical condition". So when you see coronavirus death reports in which it's stated the deceased had an "underlying medical condition" that's really not saying very much. It doesn't mean they had been hovering at death's door prior to the virus. It just means they're on record as being in less than stellar health.

Perhaps that helps bring some of the reports into clearer focus?

 

[dee]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

I get what your saying, buts thats also kind of the point. Its pretty likely that almost EVERYONE will get this. There is no immunity and its highly contagious. I think the whole point is so that the NHS doesnt get overwhelmed with all the old, infirm and people at risk getting hit with it at once, and hence theyll be able to save a lot more lives.

Thats why its a tank to swat a fly. If they dont get the tank out , the fly will infect everyone very very quickly. Kids will be fine, most people will get mild symptoms but the people at risk will get totally banjoed by it and there are thousands upon thousands in that group.

 

[newguy]

Apparently 43% of UK adults (20 million people) have some kind of documented "underlying medical condition". So when you see coronavirus death reports in which it's stated the deceased had an "underlying medical condition" that's really not saying very much. It doesn't mean they had been hovering at death's door prior to the virus. It just means they're on record as being in less than stellar health.

Perhaps that helps bring some of the reports into clearer focus?

Exactly my point. People seem to be hanging their hat on "oh it's understandable they died then" when realistically these are common conditions throughout society (obesity, diabetes etc)

 

[newguy]

I get what your saying, buts thats also kind of the point. Its pretty likely that almost EVERYONE will get this. There is no immunity and its highly contagious. I think the whole point is so that the NHS doesnt get overwhelmed with all the old, infirm and people at risk getting hit with it at once, and hence theyll be able to save a lot more lives.

Thats why its a tank to swat a fly. If they dont get the tank out , the fly will infect everyone very very quickly. Kids will be fine, most people will get mild symptoms but the people at risk will get totally banjoed by it and there are thousands upon thousands in that group.

I just hope immunity to it and/or any mutations that could manifest is long lasting. If it turns out you're immune to this for many years after having it, in all likelihood it may begin to peter out in time, and before spreading to some of the most vulnerable in society (if they keep their heads down). Then again, if it's possible to get it again a few months after having it, I don't see how anyone will avoid it long term.