EU Referendum

[dougs]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

Thats a huge amount of countries for us to make deals with. The average trade deal takes over 2 years.

 

[Edwin]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

The WTO has something called "most favoured nation" baked into it. In a nutshell, countries trading with each other under WTO rules all have to be offered the same deal.

So if Canada (random example) wanted to do a deal with the UK to get rid of tariffs on cars (random example) in a WTO situation, Canada would also be obliged to get rid of tariffs on cars for all other WTO countries.

There's more about this straight from the WTO's own site, highlighting the magnitude and complexity of the issue:
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

 

[Edwin]

Great little summary, Doug! Very easy to see the choices at a glance. And all but the most onerous require "free movement of people" which negates the point of Leave in the first place since it doesn't "take back control" of the UK's borders and keep the foreigners out.

 

[BeachLife]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

No, you are incorrect, at least until the UK has renegotiated with the 161 members of the WTO. From the Director General of the WTO:

As a result (of brexit), to remain compliant with WTO rules the UK would have to impose higher “most favoured nation” tariffs on imports from those 58 countries, while they would have to levy their own surcharges on British exports, Mr Azevêdo said.

“The consumer in the UK will have to pay those duties. The UK is not in a position to decide ‘I’m not charging duties here’. That is impossible. That is illegal,” Mr Azevêdo said.

A WTO analysis had calculated the cost of the additional tariffs on goods imports to British consumers at £9bn, while British merchandise exports would be subject to a further £5.5bn in tariffs at their destination.

 

[Edwin]

This fascinating article traces the genesis of the current referendum back over two decades, through the Blair/Brown years and the coalition years, and explains why we're having it now. It goes a reasonably long way towards answering the "what was Cameron thinking?" question.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/brexit-how-a-fringe-idea-took-hold-tory-party

It also explains Cameron's reportedly white-hot fury towards Gove and Johnson in particular:

It was equally important that the leave campaign not resemble a committee of the fringe. Its claims needed to sound like common sense, not the fist-waving slogans of peripheral ideologues. In 1975, the out campaign attracted figures who were regarded as extreme: Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, the leaders of the National Front. “We’ve managed to set up a platform which has attracted some serious people,” said Elliott. “Had it not been for Michael [Gove] and Boris [Johnson] you might have expected, for argument’s sake, 50 to 70 Tory MPs to be on the leave side.” According to the BBC website, at the time of writing 150 MPs had declared in favour of the leave campaign.

 

[BREWSTERS]

How far do you go with the Icke stuff? Do you believe they're reptilian shapeshifters, or is it just the elites' march to the microchipped one world government that you're not keen on? Sincere question btw. (I speak as a recovering Icke-aholic)((*hicc*))

Well, I do believe there is a ruling class above politicians made up largely of elite banking dynasties. They control virtually all the worlds 'central banks' and gained their control by being able to issue currencies. The UK is paying c. £1billion a week in interest to central banks. That's why I say that the arguing about money regards to Brexit is a smokescreen. When do you hear politicians mention any of this? You don't (perhaps that's why Blair walked out of No.10 and into a £3m a year advisory post with Bank of America?). Fractional reserve banking by it's very nature means there is never enough money in circulation to be able to repay debt.
From this I believe that the EU itself is a major step towards one world governance. Which should never be allowed to happen.

 

[websaway]

By tapping the magic money tree? You could put the smartest person in the world in charge of the economy, and they still won't be able to spend money that doesn't exist!

Did you not listen to the Today segment from this morning? Vote Leave's figures have been comprehensively debunked.

I think after talking the markets down and exaggerating the position his days are numbered. Don't forget you are predecting financial mayhem, markets tumbling and end to life as we know it.

Although below Paul Johnson of the IFS, who you were a great believer in before does not agree with you.

If we turned out to have a 20-40 billion pound
hit to the public finances that would be a much smaller hit than
the effect of the 2008 recession, it would be below the
downgrades to the forecasts made by the OBR between the
budgets in 2011 and 2013. We have coped with those. In fact –
they are the Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave the
recession will be the shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon.

A question for the Leave camp:

What if the more pessimistic predictions turn out to be right? Would you change your feelings about wanting to leave the EU if the economy craters within days or weeks of the 23 June vote being tallied, and the headlines fill with companies laying off staff?

Or would you want the Tories to press on with the brexit process to the bitter end, regardless?

What if the more pessimistic predictions turned our right if we stayed in and 1000,000 people come to England , Not Scotland , Not Wales, to England every 3 or 4 years. And on top of that millions more come to Europe because Turkey are sending them as a punishment for not letting them join the EU until the year 3000. And if Greece bombs again and is joined by Italy and if most EU states decide to close their borders to everyone so all new arrivals can only go to Germany, and if the far right gain control of Germany because Merkel simply cannot hold on to power because of the mess she caused and if EU cannot get rid of the heads of it's government because it is not democratic and the whole thing is in turmoil .

Would you still want to press on because certain institutions get generous funding from the EU that they probably would not get the UK electorate to agree to.

We have all got our own reasons to leave or stay, it's just some are more forthright than others at admitting what they are.
My reasons are sovereignty.

 

[dougs]

I think after talking the markets down and exaggerating the position his days are numbered. Don't forget you are predecting financial mayhem, markets tumbling and end to life as we know it.

Although below Paul Johnson of the IFS, who you were a great believer in before does not agree with you.

If we turned out to have a 20-40 billion pound
hit to the public finances that would be a much smaller hit than
the effect of the 2008 recession, it would be below the
downgrades to the forecasts made by the OBR between the
budgets in 2011 and 2013. We have coped with those. In fact –
they are the Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave the
recession will be the shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon.




What if the more pessimistic predictions turned our right if we stayed in and 1000,000 people come to England , Not Scotland , Not Wales, to England every 3 or 4 years. And on top of that millions more come to Europe because Turkey are sending them as a punishment for not letting them join the EU until the year 3000. And if Greece bombs again and is joined by Italy and if most EU states decide to close their borders to everyone so all new arrivals can only go to Germany, and if the far right gain control of Germany because Merkel simply cannot hold on to power because of the mess she caused and if EU cannot get rid of the heads of it's government because it is not democratic and the whole thing is in turmoil .

Would you still want to press on because certain institutions get generous funding from the EU that they probably would not get the UK electorate to agree to.

We have all got our own reasons to leave or stay, it's just some are more forthright than others at admitting what they are.
My reasons are sovereignty.

Sovereignty is fine, but lets not get muddled up with the others I think economically ( as do many others ) it is better for the UK and I am not a believer in sovereignty....hence easy decision for me.

Accpeting sovereignty but that with it comes a potential big hit economically is also fine

 

[BREWSTERS]

It is starting....

The markets and experts said:

if we leave the share prices will drop
the pound and the euro will drop
money will head for stability - gold and the dollar
uk interest rates on international markets will go up

All are happening as we speak

So wether you want in or out this is the reallity that is now happening and will continue

If UK interest rates go up then we have less cash to spend on the NHS, investment etc etc etc

Simply the markets said this is what they would do and it is what they are now doing.

So it really does not matter what we think will happen in the state of an exit, the markets and the experts are dictating the game.

Doug

Who controls the markets?
The banks are all in favour of remain...US banks have been funding the remain camp. Good tool to put the frighteners on people in the run up to the vote.

 

[BeachLife]

Open up the file and you will see the 4 possibilities

On thing the above doesn't refer to specifically, rather than just stating "allow free movement", is the Schengen area, which becoming a member of the EEA or EFTA would also most likely entail. This would result in less control of immigration than we currently have, as we are currently opted out. A bilateral Treaty would not necessarily require this, but would require Visa free access to the UK from the EU.

 

[Avano Ltd]

I would suggest people vote with ones conscience

I have read back a good few pages that seems to be regurgitated from previous pages and one thing I find very funny is that people quoting organisations that are funding solely by eu grants is not going to persuade me to remain( if you would like to submit a FOIA), we are not the BBC.

67% leave according to the poll on this forum, that's the largest margin i have seen on any forum i visit.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Sovereignty is fine, but lets not get muddled up with the others I think economically ( as do many others ) it is better for the UK and I am not a believer in sovereignty....

Don't believe in sovereignty? Don't believe in being able to make, change or repeal the laws of your own country? That's crazy to me.

""Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety (money), deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

Correct.

It also omits 'ability to self govern'.

Also, there is a 5th option - to set up individual agreements. Why should that be so difficult? We already have historical import/export data by commodity code and country. As the fifth largest economy in the world, don't you think we are capable without the EU?

 

[websaway]

It is starting....

The markets and experts said:

if we leave the share prices will drop
the pound and the euro will drop
money will head for stability - gold and the dollar
uk interest rates on international markets will go up

All are happening as we speak

So wether you want in or out this is the reallity that is now happening and will continue

If UK interest rates go up then we have less cash to spend on the NHS, investment etc etc etc

Simply the markets said this is what they would do and it is what they are now doing.

So it really does not matter what we think will happen in the state of an exit, the markets and the experts are dictating the game.

Doug

Markets are up this morning.

 

[Edwin]

The British Medical Journal weighs in on the referendum...

Why doctors should vote to remain in the EU on 23 June
Thursday 23 June is a momentous day for the UK: voters will decide whether we should leave or remain in the European Union. In a break with tradition we, on behalf of The BMJ, have decided to come out and state our considered view that the UK should remain in the EU.

Some readers may wonder why The BMJ is intervening in a political debate. We think this issue transcends politics and has such huge ramifications for health and society that it is important to state our case.

The BMJ is in good company. Over the past few months a slew of health experts have come out on the remain side. These include Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England; Paul Nurse, chief executive of the Francis Crick Institute; Simon Wessely, president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists; and just last week, with a change of heart, Sarah Wollaston, chair of the parliamentary select committee on health. In a “call for views” organised by the Royal College of Physicians the opinions were overwhelmingly in favour of staying in. In fact, we realised that we could not name one prominent national medical, research, or health organisation that has sided with Brexit.

http://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i3302

 

[websaway]

I would like to ask the Leave camp whether you would still vote Leave if you knew that, after a Brexit, we were still going to have to continue with free movement as part of a trade deal, in other words, immigration to the UK would remain "uncontrolled".

(Don't say it won't. This is a "what if" question )

Then it would be between Parliament and the people and the people would have to decide through the ballot box.

 

[websaway]

The British Medical Journal weighs in on the referendum...




http://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i3302

Doctors might still want to retain sovereignty.
I think if there had been this discussion before we went to war with Germany most projections would affect people in different ways. But retaining our freedom and self determination was more important. The consequences here of course are nothing like that occasion but what is being protected is the same "British Sovereignty "

I think if someone says they don't believe in sovereignty on the remain side ,their opinions are as valid to the argument as a racist on the leave side.

 

[websaway]

I think if someone says they don't believe in sovereignty on the remain side ,their opinions are as valid to the argument as a self confessed racist on the leave side.

 

[websaway]

A few more warnings, all from the last day or so.

Nicola Sturgeon warns of Brexit 'right-wing Tory takeover'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36533796

Brexit would leave UK short of workers, warns Manpower
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-would-leave-uk-short-of-workers-warns-manpower-qzf86m0wz

Daunt [boss of Waterstones bookshops] warns of job losses if irresponsible Brexit prevails
http://www.thebookseller.com/news/waterstones-forced-axe-jobs-if-uk-brexits-333676

Central Bank warns of ‘material’ Brexit risks to Irish financial firms
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-risks-to-irish-financial-firms-1.2684150

ACI Worldwide warns of UK Brexit consequences to fintech industry
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticl...arns-of-disastrous-consequences-for-uk-brexit

Morgan Stanley Warns About 1,000 Jobs Relocation on Brexit
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/220386/morgan-stanley-warns-about-1000-jobs-relocation-on-brexit

Brexit could leave Welsh rural communities in poverty, warns FUW President
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Brexi...ies-in-poverty-warns-FUW-President_42107.html

Axa CEO Warns There’s an ‘Extremely High’ Probability of Brexit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ere-s-an-extremely-high-probability-of-brexit

There are similar warnings every single day if you keep an eye open for them. And when the number of independent (of each other) organisations and companies saying the same thing reaches the hundreds and then the thousands, it's impossible to make a credible case that they're all somehow in on a massive conspiracy together.

BTW, if you take the Morgan Stanley comment alone, 1,000 financial industry jobs moved abroad would drain well over £100 million a year out of the UK economy (salaries, bonuses and benefits not being paid locally) with consequent knock-on loss of corporate and personal tax revenues. They're also only the latest in a long line of city firms to warn they will need to move significant staff to a EU base if brexit occurs.

All these are based on self interest. Not on the interests of the bigoted lady Gordon Brown met and we all know how compassionate he was to her reservations on where the UK was going.

 

[Edwin]

Vote Leave have officially admitted that 2 years' worth of negotiations will take 4 years, even if the plan they are advocating is followed. Down towards the bottom of the article, it's clear they're relying on handwavium to cover the gap.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534802

It's like a sky-diver saying "trust me, I can make a fantastic parachute in only 30 seconds" when they're going to impact the ground 15 seconds later.

Following on from Priti Patel's admission yesterday that their sums don't add up at all, it's a pretty damning indictment of their position.