EU Referendum

[Edwin]

Brexit's damage to UK economy would be felt until at least 2020 – EIU
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/15/brexit-damage-uk-economy-eiu-vote-eu-recession

Another day, another independent report warning about pretty much the same stuff as all the other independent reports. Here's a bit more background to the EIU, the organisation that authored the report: http://www.eiu.com/home.aspx#about

 

[spiderspider]

Another day, another independent report........

.........Having a guess at what the future may be.

SSDD - Same Shit, Different Day.

 

[Edwin]

A few more warnings, all from the last day or so.

Nicola Sturgeon warns of Brexit 'right-wing Tory takeover'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36533796

Brexit would leave UK short of workers, warns Manpower
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-would-leave-uk-short-of-workers-warns-manpower-qzf86m0wz

Daunt [boss of Waterstones bookshops] warns of job losses if irresponsible Brexit prevails
http://www.thebookseller.com/news/waterstones-forced-axe-jobs-if-uk-brexits-333676

Central Bank warns of ‘material’ Brexit risks to Irish financial firms
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-risks-to-irish-financial-firms-1.2684150

ACI Worldwide warns of UK Brexit consequences to fintech industry
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticl...arns-of-disastrous-consequences-for-uk-brexit

Morgan Stanley Warns About 1,000 Jobs Relocation on Brexit
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/220386/morgan-stanley-warns-about-1000-jobs-relocation-on-brexit

Brexit could leave Welsh rural communities in poverty, warns FUW President
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Brexi...ies-in-poverty-warns-FUW-President_42107.html

Axa CEO Warns There’s an ‘Extremely High’ Probability of Brexit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ere-s-an-extremely-high-probability-of-brexit

There are similar warnings every single day if you keep an eye open for them. And when the number of independent (of each other) organisations and companies saying the same thing reaches the hundreds and then the thousands, it's impossible to make a credible case that they're all somehow in on a massive conspiracy together.

BTW, if you take the Morgan Stanley comment alone, 1,000 financial industry jobs moved abroad would drain well over £100 million a year out of the UK economy (salaries, bonuses and benefits not being paid locally) with consequent knock-on loss of corporate and personal tax revenues. They're also only the latest in a long line of city firms to warn they will need to move significant staff to a EU base if brexit occurs.

 

[spiderspider]

A few more warnings, all from the last day or so.

Nicola Sturgeon warns of Brexit 'right-wing Tory takeover'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36533796

Brexit would leave UK short of workers, warns Manpower
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-would-leave-uk-short-of-workers-warns-manpower-qzf86m0wz

Daunt [boss of Waterstones bookshops] warns of job losses if irresponsible Brexit prevails
http://www.thebookseller.com/news/waterstones-forced-axe-jobs-if-uk-brexits-333676

Central Bank warns of ‘material’ Brexit risks to Irish financial firms
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-risks-to-irish-financial-firms-1.2684150

ACI Worldwide warns of UK Brexit consequences to fintech industry
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticl...arns-of-disastrous-consequences-for-uk-brexit

Morgan Stanley Warns About 1,000 Jobs Relocation on Brexit
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/220386/morgan-stanley-warns-about-1000-jobs-relocation-on-brexit

Brexit could leave Welsh rural communities in poverty, warns FUW President
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Brexi...ies-in-poverty-warns-FUW-President_42107.html

Axa CEO Warns There’s an ‘Extremely High’ Probability of Brexit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ere-s-an-extremely-high-probability-of-brexit

There are similar warnings every single day if you keep an eye open for them. And when the number of independent (of each other) organisations and companies saying the same thing reaches the hundreds and then the thousands, it's impossible to make a credible case that they're all somehow in on a massive conspiracy together.

Jeez Edwin. You're blabbering the same rubbish you were in the first 10 pages of this thread.

When will you finally stop?

 

[Edwin]

Jeez Edwin. You're blabbering the same rubbish you were in the first 10 pages of this thread.

When will you finally stop?

24 June would be a good bet. I assume that's when we all stop repeating ourselves?

 

[BeachLife]

Could I ask the leave camp, are you of the belief that a free trade UK-EU deal will definitely occur? If so, are you basing your leave vote upon this?

 

[BeachLife]

You're blabbering the same rubbish

A genuine question, do you actually believe that these warnings are all rubbish, or is it that it doesn't matter if they are true as their predicted outcomes do not influence your vote?

 

[spiderspider]

24 June would be a good bet. I assume that's when we all stop repeating ourselves?

But do you not feel, that everyone who reads this forum, knows you're a Guardian reading remainder, and doesn't need to be told any more?

Or, that others on this forum can do their own research, with your need for crystal ball links?

Could I ask the leave camp, are you of the belief that a free trade UK-EU deal will definitely occur? If so, are you basing your leave vote upon this?

No.

Read back 100 pages or so..... it was asked and answered back then.

In brief, I believe we are to big a market (3rd for German exports) for them to try and stop us, as we will stop them. Also, we will then be able to free trade with the commonwealth! Imagine that eh? We're currently restricted due to EU regs.

 

[spiderspider]

A genuine question, do you actually believe that these warnings are all rubbish, or is it that it doesn't matter if they are true as their predicted outcomes do not influence your vote?

My crystal ball is broke. I'm so glad their's is working.

Same was said by these people / places about the Euro and other EU integration and it was all wrong.

Yes I do believe they are all made up, and based on nothing, as their is nothing to base them on. Grab a number from the sky, and spin it.

It won't effect my vote, as the economy is just one of the many elements that go towards me making my decision, not the main one.

 

[dougs]

Could I ask the leave camp, are you of the belief that a free trade UK-EU deal will definitely occur? If so, are you basing your leave vote upon this?

 

[dougs]

Open up the file and you will see the 4 possibilities

 

[spiderspider]

Open up the file and you will see the 4 possibilities

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

 

[dougs]

But do you not feel, that everyone who reads this forum, knows you're a Guardian reading remainder, and doesn't need to be told any more?

Or, that others on this forum can do their own research, with your need for crystal ball links?



No.

Read back 100 pages or so..... it was asked and answered back then.

In brief, I believe we are to big a market (3rd for German exports) for them to try and stop us, as we will stop them. Also, we will then be able to free trade with the commonwealth! Imagine that eh? We're currently restricted due to EU regs.

Concern is ARTICLE 50.
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/th.../title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

We created this treaty incase anyone wanted to leave, because if they left and we made it easy for them to leave the rest of the EU countries if upset might leave. So the Germans may not want to stop trading with us, but if they do then the EU may actually collapse....so they are ina corner and have to make it shit

 

[dougs]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

Thats a huge amount of countries for us to make deals with. The average trade deal takes over 2 years.

 

[Edwin]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

The WTO has something called "most favoured nation" baked into it. In a nutshell, countries trading with each other under WTO rules all have to be offered the same deal.

So if Canada (random example) wanted to do a deal with the UK to get rid of tariffs on cars (random example) in a WTO situation, Canada would also be obliged to get rid of tariffs on cars for all other WTO countries.

There's more about this straight from the WTO's own site, highlighting the magnitude and complexity of the issue:
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

 

[Edwin]

Great little summary, Doug! Very easy to see the choices at a glance. And all but the most onerous require "free movement of people" which negates the point of Leave in the first place since it doesn't "take back control" of the UK's borders and keep the foreigners out.

 

[BeachLife]

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

No, you are incorrect, at least until the UK has renegotiated with the 161 members of the WTO. From the Director General of the WTO:

As a result (of brexit), to remain compliant with WTO rules the UK would have to impose higher “most favoured nation” tariffs on imports from those 58 countries, while they would have to levy their own surcharges on British exports, Mr Azevêdo said.

“The consumer in the UK will have to pay those duties. The UK is not in a position to decide ‘I’m not charging duties here’. That is impossible. That is illegal,” Mr Azevêdo said.

A WTO analysis had calculated the cost of the additional tariffs on goods imports to British consumers at £9bn, while British merchandise exports would be subject to a further £5.5bn in tariffs at their destination.

 

[Edwin]

This fascinating article traces the genesis of the current referendum back over two decades, through the Blair/Brown years and the coalition years, and explains why we're having it now. It goes a reasonably long way towards answering the "what was Cameron thinking?" question.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/brexit-how-a-fringe-idea-took-hold-tory-party

It also explains Cameron's reportedly white-hot fury towards Gove and Johnson in particular:

It was equally important that the leave campaign not resemble a committee of the fringe. Its claims needed to sound like common sense, not the fist-waving slogans of peripheral ideologues. In 1975, the out campaign attracted figures who were regarded as extreme: Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, the leaders of the National Front. “We’ve managed to set up a platform which has attracted some serious people,” said Elliott. “Had it not been for Michael [Gove] and Boris [Johnson] you might have expected, for argument’s sake, 50 to 70 Tory MPs to be on the leave side.” According to the BBC website, at the time of writing 150 MPs had declared in favour of the leave campaign.

 

[BREWSTERS]

How far do you go with the Icke stuff? Do you believe they're reptilian shapeshifters, or is it just the elites' march to the microchipped one world government that you're not keen on? Sincere question btw. (I speak as a recovering Icke-aholic)((*hicc*))

Well, I do believe there is a ruling class above politicians made up largely of elite banking dynasties. They control virtually all the worlds 'central banks' and gained their control by being able to issue currencies. The UK is paying c. £1billion a week in interest to central banks. That's why I say that the arguing about money regards to Brexit is a smokescreen. When do you hear politicians mention any of this? You don't (perhaps that's why Blair walked out of No.10 and into a £3m a year advisory post with Bank of America?). Fractional reserve banking by it's very nature means there is never enough money in circulation to be able to repay debt.
From this I believe that the EU itself is a major step towards one world governance. Which should never be allowed to happen.

 

[websaway]

By tapping the magic money tree? You could put the smartest person in the world in charge of the economy, and they still won't be able to spend money that doesn't exist!

Did you not listen to the Today segment from this morning? Vote Leave's figures have been comprehensively debunked.

I think after talking the markets down and exaggerating the position his days are numbered. Don't forget you are predecting financial mayhem, markets tumbling and end to life as we know it.

Although below Paul Johnson of the IFS, who you were a great believer in before does not agree with you.

If we turned out to have a 20-40 billion pound
hit to the public finances that would be a much smaller hit than
the effect of the 2008 recession, it would be below the
downgrades to the forecasts made by the OBR between the
budgets in 2011 and 2013. We have coped with those. In fact –
they are the Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave the
recession will be the shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon.

A question for the Leave camp:

What if the more pessimistic predictions turn out to be right? Would you change your feelings about wanting to leave the EU if the economy craters within days or weeks of the 23 June vote being tallied, and the headlines fill with companies laying off staff?

Or would you want the Tories to press on with the brexit process to the bitter end, regardless?

What if the more pessimistic predictions turned our right if we stayed in and 1000,000 people come to England , Not Scotland , Not Wales, to England every 3 or 4 years. And on top of that millions more come to Europe because Turkey are sending them as a punishment for not letting them join the EU until the year 3000. And if Greece bombs again and is joined by Italy and if most EU states decide to close their borders to everyone so all new arrivals can only go to Germany, and if the far right gain control of Germany because Merkel simply cannot hold on to power because of the mess she caused and if EU cannot get rid of the heads of it's government because it is not democratic and the whole thing is in turmoil .

Would you still want to press on because certain institutions get generous funding from the EU that they probably would not get the UK electorate to agree to.

We have all got our own reasons to leave or stay, it's just some are more forthright than others at admitting what they are.
My reasons are sovereignty.