EU Referendum

[AlistairM]

That article to me reads like Osborne is now going to be basically threatening people to vote remain. Hopefully it will backfire like all the other crap they've pulled.

 

[AlistairM]

Or would you want the Tories to press on with the brexit process to the bitter end, regardless?

On the other hand, what would make you vote leave, or consider voting leave?

 

[Edwin]

That article to me reads like Osborne is now going to be basically threatening people to vote remain. Hopefully it will backfire like all the other crap they've pulled.

Is it merely a threat if he's actually in a position to carry it out?

Actually, I think the Remain camp want to get a very loud, very clear, completely unequivocal "we told you what would happen, but you didn't listen" on record so that if the economy does end up collapsing it will be the Vote Leave ringleaders and their magic money tree at the front of the "blame" queue.

Another way of looking at it: this is the punishment being dished out to the Tory deserters who plumped for Leave. Makes it more likely Boris Johnson and co won't have everything their own way on 24 June if the pound crashed and the stock market implodes. It's basically a "no, you don't get to waltz in and take our jobs after the mess you created" message.

 

[dougs]

It is starting....

The markets and experts said:

if we leave the share prices will drop
the pound and the euro will drop
money will head for stability - gold and the dollar
uk interest rates on international markets will go up

All are happening as we speak

So wether you want in or out this is the reallity that is now happening and will continue

If UK interest rates go up then we have less cash to spend on the NHS, investment etc etc etc

Simply the markets said this is what they would do and it is what they are now doing.

So it really does not matter what we think will happen in the state of an exit, the markets and the experts are dictating the game.

Doug

 

[Edwin]

On the other hand, what would make you vote leave, or consider voting leave?

Nothing. The only uncertain situation is on the leave side - as I've already said, if we Remain then Friday 24 June is the same as Thursday 23 June. There's no "period of uncertainty" covering months, years or decades, no possible parade of companies cutting staff and investors turning away from the UK.

Whereas because of the 2-year leave timeframe, the brexit scenario could turn into long, drawn out, agonising economic death.

I agree it might not. But my question about Leave camp sentiment was specifically about IF it does play out that way.

 

[Toonz]

I would like to ask the Leave camp whether you would still vote Leave if you knew that, after a Brexit, we were still going to have to continue with free movement as part of a trade deal, in other words, immigration to the UK would remain "uncontrolled".

(Don't say it won't. This is a "what if" question )

 

[martin-s]

I would like to ask the Leave camp whether you would still vote Leave if you knew that, after a Brexit, we were still going to have to continue with free movement as part of a trade deal, in other words, immigration to the UK would remain "uncontrolled".

Yes, I would.

 

[Edwin]

Brexit's damage to UK economy would be felt until at least 2020 – EIU
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/15/brexit-damage-uk-economy-eiu-vote-eu-recession

Another day, another independent report warning about pretty much the same stuff as all the other independent reports. Here's a bit more background to the EIU, the organisation that authored the report: http://www.eiu.com/home.aspx#about

 

[spiderspider]

Another day, another independent report........

.........Having a guess at what the future may be.

SSDD - Same Shit, Different Day.

 

[Edwin]

A few more warnings, all from the last day or so.

Nicola Sturgeon warns of Brexit 'right-wing Tory takeover'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36533796

Brexit would leave UK short of workers, warns Manpower
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-would-leave-uk-short-of-workers-warns-manpower-qzf86m0wz

Daunt [boss of Waterstones bookshops] warns of job losses if irresponsible Brexit prevails
http://www.thebookseller.com/news/waterstones-forced-axe-jobs-if-uk-brexits-333676

Central Bank warns of ‘material’ Brexit risks to Irish financial firms
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-risks-to-irish-financial-firms-1.2684150

ACI Worldwide warns of UK Brexit consequences to fintech industry
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticl...arns-of-disastrous-consequences-for-uk-brexit

Morgan Stanley Warns About 1,000 Jobs Relocation on Brexit
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/220386/morgan-stanley-warns-about-1000-jobs-relocation-on-brexit

Brexit could leave Welsh rural communities in poverty, warns FUW President
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Brexi...ies-in-poverty-warns-FUW-President_42107.html

Axa CEO Warns There’s an ‘Extremely High’ Probability of Brexit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ere-s-an-extremely-high-probability-of-brexit

There are similar warnings every single day if you keep an eye open for them. And when the number of independent (of each other) organisations and companies saying the same thing reaches the hundreds and then the thousands, it's impossible to make a credible case that they're all somehow in on a massive conspiracy together.

BTW, if you take the Morgan Stanley comment alone, 1,000 financial industry jobs moved abroad would drain well over £100 million a year out of the UK economy (salaries, bonuses and benefits not being paid locally) with consequent knock-on loss of corporate and personal tax revenues. They're also only the latest in a long line of city firms to warn they will need to move significant staff to a EU base if brexit occurs.

 

[spiderspider]

A few more warnings, all from the last day or so.

Nicola Sturgeon warns of Brexit 'right-wing Tory takeover'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36533796

Brexit would leave UK short of workers, warns Manpower
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-would-leave-uk-short-of-workers-warns-manpower-qzf86m0wz

Daunt [boss of Waterstones bookshops] warns of job losses if irresponsible Brexit prevails
http://www.thebookseller.com/news/waterstones-forced-axe-jobs-if-uk-brexits-333676

Central Bank warns of ‘material’ Brexit risks to Irish financial firms
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-risks-to-irish-financial-firms-1.2684150

ACI Worldwide warns of UK Brexit consequences to fintech industry
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticl...arns-of-disastrous-consequences-for-uk-brexit

Morgan Stanley Warns About 1,000 Jobs Relocation on Brexit
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/220386/morgan-stanley-warns-about-1000-jobs-relocation-on-brexit

Brexit could leave Welsh rural communities in poverty, warns FUW President
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Brexi...ies-in-poverty-warns-FUW-President_42107.html

Axa CEO Warns There’s an ‘Extremely High’ Probability of Brexit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ere-s-an-extremely-high-probability-of-brexit

There are similar warnings every single day if you keep an eye open for them. And when the number of independent (of each other) organisations and companies saying the same thing reaches the hundreds and then the thousands, it's impossible to make a credible case that they're all somehow in on a massive conspiracy together.

Jeez Edwin. You're blabbering the same rubbish you were in the first 10 pages of this thread.

When will you finally stop?

 

[Edwin]

Jeez Edwin. You're blabbering the same rubbish you were in the first 10 pages of this thread.

When will you finally stop?

24 June would be a good bet. I assume that's when we all stop repeating ourselves?

 

[BeachLife]

Could I ask the leave camp, are you of the belief that a free trade UK-EU deal will definitely occur? If so, are you basing your leave vote upon this?

 

[BeachLife]

You're blabbering the same rubbish

A genuine question, do you actually believe that these warnings are all rubbish, or is it that it doesn't matter if they are true as their predicted outcomes do not influence your vote?

 

[spiderspider]

24 June would be a good bet. I assume that's when we all stop repeating ourselves?

But do you not feel, that everyone who reads this forum, knows you're a Guardian reading remainder, and doesn't need to be told any more?

Or, that others on this forum can do their own research, with your need for crystal ball links?

Could I ask the leave camp, are you of the belief that a free trade UK-EU deal will definitely occur? If so, are you basing your leave vote upon this?

No.

Read back 100 pages or so..... it was asked and answered back then.

In brief, I believe we are to big a market (3rd for German exports) for them to try and stop us, as we will stop them. Also, we will then be able to free trade with the commonwealth! Imagine that eh? We're currently restricted due to EU regs.

 

[spiderspider]

A genuine question, do you actually believe that these warnings are all rubbish, or is it that it doesn't matter if they are true as their predicted outcomes do not influence your vote?

My crystal ball is broke. I'm so glad their's is working.

Same was said by these people / places about the Euro and other EU integration and it was all wrong.

Yes I do believe they are all made up, and based on nothing, as their is nothing to base them on. Grab a number from the sky, and spin it.

It won't effect my vote, as the economy is just one of the many elements that go towards me making my decision, not the main one.

 

[dougs]

Could I ask the leave camp, are you of the belief that a free trade UK-EU deal will definitely occur? If so, are you basing your leave vote upon this?

 

[dougs]

Open up the file and you will see the 4 possibilities

 

[spiderspider]

Open up the file and you will see the 4 possibilities

Its incorrect on the WTO option.

Trade tariffs are set by the countries, and could be non-existant. They isn't always a need for tariffs under the WTO options.

 

[dougs]

But do you not feel, that everyone who reads this forum, knows you're a Guardian reading remainder, and doesn't need to be told any more?

Or, that others on this forum can do their own research, with your need for crystal ball links?



No.

Read back 100 pages or so..... it was asked and answered back then.

In brief, I believe we are to big a market (3rd for German exports) for them to try and stop us, as we will stop them. Also, we will then be able to free trade with the commonwealth! Imagine that eh? We're currently restricted due to EU regs.

Concern is ARTICLE 50.
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/th.../title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

We created this treaty incase anyone wanted to leave, because if they left and we made it easy for them to leave the rest of the EU countries if upset might leave. So the Germans may not want to stop trading with us, but if they do then the EU may actually collapse....so they are ina corner and have to make it shit