EU Referendum

[Edwin]

Judging by the Twitter commentary, where she trended for nearly two hours, Priti Patel may have done more for Remain with her admission that Vote Leave's sums in their letter have no basis in reality than any of the Remain camp interventions over the last couple of weeks.

I read well over a thousand tweets, and found exactly *two* people supporting her. Normally Leave and Remain flak each other fairly evenly.

Put in topical terms, she scored an own goal, then went on to complete a hat-trick into the back of her own net.

 

[websaway]

I have not heard one debater, not politicians, industry leader or trade unions say the EU is perfect, even the most ardent remainers say it has to be reformed. But we tried to reform it and were marched out a laughing stock. There is no box on the ballot paper to tick to say stay in a reformed Europe. It's leave and risk a shallow recession or stay and lose sovereignty. Alan Johnson says we have to surrender sovereignty ( at least he's being honest ) in order to remain in the EU but as a re-educated Marxist who was a member of the British Communist party and wanted to align themselves to communist Russia . He would not mind us being a state in a United states of Europe. According to his past political beliefs democracy is not a pre requisite.

 

[websaway]

Judging by the Twitter commentary, where she trended for nearly two hours, Priti Patel may have done more for Remain with her admission that Vote Leave's sums in their letter have no basis in reality than any of the Remain camp interventions over the last couple of weeks.

I read well over a thousand tweets, and found exactly *two* people supporting her. Normally Leave and Remain flak each other fairly evenly.

Put in topical terms, she scored an own goal, then went on to complete a hat-trick into the back of her own net.

That's 998 for your side, hardly a game changer. Hope I've got the figures right but if not I'm sure you will correct me.
You are focusing on a hopeless cause, it's about Immigration and sovereignty and people do not like those who are trying to sell our precious sovereignty. Your argument to quote you is Like arguing against the reality of climate change by moaning that there's too much chewing gum on the pavement.

 

[Toonz]

This is not won. The polls could be rigged to encourage complacency

The interesting thing about knife-edge polling is that it works both ways. If Leave is seen to take the lead, it has the potential to do two things. (1) It does what you suggest and fires up the Remain side to get out there and campaign/vote. But equally, (2) it hands momentum (and a certain extra credibility) to the leading side. Momentum is a powerful thing to have on your side - it can snowball.

Out of interest, if Remain wins next week, will you believe that the poll (the actual one) was rigged?

 

[martin-s]

Full text of the Vote Leave letter pledging things they're not in a position to commit to, plus puppies and unicorns for all
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/leave_ministers_commit_to_maintain_eu_funding

You keep hitting Leave on this, but what exactly are they supposed to do? They have to be able to announce what they stand for, given the opportunity to make it happen.

When was the last manifesto you read that was implemented completely and without change? So why is this any different?

Would you acknowledge that Remain aren't really in a position to make concrete commitments either? (Not that I'm aware they've made many?)

 

[martin-s]

The ONS has a useful breakdown of figures for the UK contribution to the EU here:
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-the-uk-contribution-to-the-eu-budget/

• £19.1bn nominal gross contribution (£367m per week)
• Reduced to £14.7bn after £4.4bn rebate is applied (£283m per week actually paid by the UK to the EU)
• £4.8bn is returned as investment into the UK from the Regional Development Fund and Agricultural Guarantee Fund and others.
• £0.8bn is returned as investment into private sector UK (based on a 5 year average)
• Leaving a final contribution for 2014 of approximately £9.1bn (£175m per week)

The numbers for investment into the UK seem to fluctuate. I don't believe there is any guaranteed formula of investment, more the result of bidding for funding. Most of the funding is locked in for multi-year projects (up to 2020 for the majority of current projects I believe).

For comparison, here are some figures from the 2015 budget showing allocation of UK Government funds:

• £3.6bn police services
• £5.4bn law courts
• £3.8bn prisons
• £15.8bn family welfare
• £4bn social housing
• £3.5bn unemployment welfare
• £10.6bn transport (inc £3.7bn for entire road network)

There are obviously immigration related incomes in the UK budget, from tax receipts, etc. so it stands to reason that a level of immigration would be needed to retain current inflows.

If Leave wins and we get back £9.1bn of funding, yet still keep all of the EU's investments into science, agriculture, etc. in the UK, what else could we spend it on?

 

[Edwin]

You keep hitting Leave on this, but what exactly are they supposed to do? They have to be able to announce what they stand for, given the opportunity to make it happen.

When was the last manifesto you read that was implemented completely and without change? So why is this any different?

Would you acknowledge that Remain aren't really in a position to make concrete commitments either? (Not that I'm aware they've made many?)

This is not a general election. The leave camp will not be given the opportunity to make it happen, and they have no business putting forward a manifesto since that gives the false illusion they're somehow in control of the country's destiny post-brexit. Of all the many lies that Leave is promoting , that's probably the biggest (yes, even bigger than the £350 million fantasy)

Even if the vote skewed 99% in favour of Leave, it still won't be the Leave camp making policy!

Remain haven't made any particular commitments because their camp is a vote for "no change"**. There's nothing to promise because, again, this isn't a general election. The Tory party already has an established manifesto, and will continue to enact it in the event of Remain.

That's why Remain are so furious about the way Leave are going about distorting the picture: as Tories, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Priti Patel etc are as responsible for implementing the existing, already agreed Tory manifesto as Cameron or Osborne are!

**NOTE: "no change" doesn't mean an approach to the EU frozen in amber for all time. Cameron already got some commitments to reform, some of which will be ratified by a Remain result, and others will be implemented in the following weeks and months. You can expect Cameron to continue to push to improve and reform the EU in ways that benefit the UK post-referendum, just like successive governments have over the years.

 

[Avano Ltd]

I am not happy with either campaign in all honesty and disgusted with all politicians in general.

something that I find just a bit weird, we have more farm closures than at any other time, we import more food than at any other time and 2 in 3 open farms struggle to make ends meet and yet the NFU supports the remain campaign? maybe somebody on this forum can enlighten me?

 

[Edwin]

If Leave wins and we get back £9.1bn of funding, yet still keep all of the EU's investments into science, agriculture, etc. in the UK, what else could we spend it on?

What in the world makes you think the UK would get any of those from the EU? There's absolutely no reason for them to keep paying.

The Vote Leave letter this morning "promised" that funding for anything that was formerly funded by the EU wouldn't be cut by substituting UK funding for EU funding. Shame the same money's also been promised for the NHS, VAT cuts on fuel, covering future tariff shortfalls, building more roads and a dozen other things!

 

[bonusmedia]

I am not happy with either campaign in all honesty and disgusted with all politicians in general.

something that I find just a bit weird, we have more farm closures than at any other time, we import more food than at any other time and 2 in 3 open farms struggle to make ends meet and yet the NFU supports the remain campaign? maybe somebody on this forum can enlighten me?

UK farming is massively dependent on EU subsidy (via the Common Agricultural Policy).

 

[martin-s]

For those voting exit because of legal immigration - watch this and try to imagine yourself in the position of trying to save your family - your children - from something that the government(s) that you voted in have laid at their feet, all whilst sat on your keyboards moaning about what exactly, when put into perspective with the content of this video?

Sob stories are sad. Fact.

But asylum claims are a small proportion of the immigration figures. In 2015 there were 32,414 asylum claims - less than 10% of net migration. None of those were from the EU.

• 630,000 people came to the UK, of which 83,000 were British
• So that's 547,000 migrants in, of which 270,000 were from the EU and 277,000 were from outside of the EU
• 85,000 EU migrants left, along with 89,000 non-EU migrants
• That leaves 373,000 migrants net, of which 185,000 were from the EU and 188,000 were from outside of the EU
• That's slightly different to the official figure of 333,000 because they deduct the 39,000 Brits who left the country

* If the figures are to be believed

The 32,414 asylum claims are included in the non-EU figures. Most migrants are economic.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics

Edit: I need to correct my stats here. There were 32,414 asylum applications, but 17,500+ were refused.

 

[Edwin]

I am not happy with either campaign in all honesty and disgusted with all politicians in general.

something that I find just a bit weird, we have more farm closures than at any other time, we import more food than at any other time and 2 in 3 open farms struggle to make ends meet and yet the NFU supports the remain campaign? maybe somebody on this forum can enlighten me?

The money from the Common Agricultural Policy is the only thing keeping many farmers afloat. That would dry up if we brexit.

(BTW Vote Leave also promised to cover the loss of C.A.P funding by spending the savings from leaving the EU on it. That's the exact same savings that are supposedly going to plug every other hole in the sinking ship post-brexit.)

 

[martin-s]

What in the world makes you think the UK would get any of those from the EU? There's absolutely no reason for them to keep paying.

Misunderstood me again there. I'm just saying assume the UK takes over and replicates the EU's existing investments. Leaving £9.1bn still to spend/save.

 

[bonusmedia]

There is no sense making rational arguments to people with irrationally held beliefs.
You can't argue with people who refuse to acknowledge that today is Tuesday.

There are some reasonable people making fair points for the leave campaign here but while both sides are being drowned out by illiterate conspiracy theory nonsense, what is the point?

 

[VSC]

something that I find just a bit weird, we have more farm closures than at any other time, we import more food than at any other time and 2 in 3 open farms struggle to make ends meet and yet the NFU supports the remain campaign? maybe somebody on this forum can enlighten me?

Informative article here about UK food security
http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html

Basically we cannot produce enough food ...
And people want cheap cheap cheap ... so many foods are imported by the major supermarkets due the continual drive to the bottom on food pricing.

If we want fairer prices paid to UK farmers, we have to pay more ... which most consumers don't want to do.
We could also have a go at the supermarkets whose margins are several times higher than supermarkets in Europe.

I would imagine some of the main reasons for the NFU backing Remain is that there is no guarantee that the subsidies they currently receive from the EU (about £3 billion) would remain (it just is not possible to guarantee that), and that there would be easier access to the EU.

 

[martin-s]

This is not a general election. The leave camp will not be given the opportunity to make it happen, and they have no business putting forward a manifesto since that gives the false illusion they're somehow in control of the country's destiny post-brexit.

Bull. Someone has to be responsible for painting a picture of what the world looks like post Brexit. They're it.

Remain haven't made any particular commitments because their camp is a vote for "no change".

Bull. Remain isn't a vote for no further change. It's a vote for more European integration. It's deceptive to present it as anything other than that.

"no change" doesn't mean an approach to the EU frozen in amber for all time. Cameron already got some commitments to reform, some of which will be ratified by a Remain result, and others will be implemented in the following weeks and months. You can expect Cameron to continue to push to improve and reform the EU in ways that benefit the UK post-referendum

And achieving less than sod all, because the only cards he held were the referendum - and look how far that got him.

Reform to the EU will go in the direction that the majority of the EU want it to. More integration, more members, and less sovereignty.

Wake up Edwin!

 

[Edwin]

There is no sense making rational arguments to people with irrationally held beliefs.
You can't argue with people who refuse to acknowledge that today is Tuesday.

There are some reasonable people making fair points for the leave campaign here but while both sides are being drowned out by illiterate conspiracy theory nonsense, what is the point?

Spot on - that's why I'm only engaging now with those who seem open to reason, even if we have completely opposing views.

It's a shame really, because this thread has been truly fascinating thanks to some fantastic input from both camps, which has encouraged me to learn a huge amount more about the big decision we all face.

 

[AlistairM]

For those voting exit because of legal immigration - watch this and try to imagine yourself in the position of trying to save your family - your children - from something that the government(s) that you voted in have laid at their feet, all whilst sat on your keyboards moaning about what exactly, when put into perspective with the content of this video?

Watch out people, guilt trip alert.

I for one was always against invading Iraq and was against us bombing Syria. I don't blame people genuinely fleeing terror to come to Europe or to the UK and would like us to let more come here like the Afghan translators and their families you read about that the government abandons but all the while this government can't control immigration then it's them who lose out.

 

[cannybagotudor]

This is not a general election. The leave camp will not be given the opportunity to make it happen, and they have no business putting forward a manifesto since that gives the false illusion they're somehow in control of the country's destiny post-brexit. Of all the many lies that Leave is promoting , that's probably the biggest (yes, even bigger than the £350 million fantasy)

Even if the vote skewed 99% in favour of Leave, it still won't be the Leave camp making policy!

Remain haven't made any particular commitments because their camp is a vote for "no change"**. There's nothing to promise because, again, this isn't a general election. The Tory party already has an established manifesto, and will continue to enact it in the event of Remain.

That's why Remain are so furious about the way Leave are going about distorting the picture: as Tories, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Priti Patel etc are as responsible for implementing the existing, already agreed Tory manifesto as Cameron or Osborne are!

**NOTE: "no change" doesn't mean an approach to the EU frozen in amber for all time. Cameron already got some commitments to reform, some of which will be ratified by a Remain result, and others will be implemented in the following weeks and months. You can expect Cameron to continue to push to improve and reform the EU in ways that benefit the UK post-referendum, just like successive governments have over the years.

Lol and remain haven't lied in their campaign or used taxpayers money for what was supposed to be a neutral leaflet with the facts , which instead was turned into pro EU propaganda, you can't have it both ways

Remain have used nothing but fear, austerity, lose of jobs, the world ending, ok I made that one up myself, they do not know what will happen any more than leave will. At least leave have some positive messages, remain is based on loss with no positive message at all. The fact is the UK must do as the EU asks, it can appeal some things but it must adhere to all laws made in Brussels, and you want what can only classed as a federation to tell you what to do ? Another huge advantage of leaving is the government will be vastly more answerable to it's finances. With luck VAT can be lowered (though of course remain will likely say it has to go UP !) and as for paying vat for online services in other countries that one was a real decider as well, that was an EU law. I use hostgator and thanks to the EU I get 20% added to my bills which I never did before, it's like a vacuum for money with nothing in return. Sites like themeforest are now 20% more expensive thanks to the EU which pretty much wipes out any currency benefit. By opting to leave we would no longer be in the EU, be interesting how they handle that one, as one but dozens of examples.

 

[gimpydog]

the NFU supports the remain campaign? maybe somebody on this forum can enlighten me?

The SNP do not support the scottish fishing industry , the Labour Party & TUC do not support the workers & are happy to see wages driven down.

I don't think it is a conspiracy, but a lot of these organisations appear to be hopelessly out of touch with their members.

UK farming is massively dependent on EU subsidy (via the Common Agricultural Policy).

Much of the money goes to landowners, not farmers.