EU Referendum

[websaway]

The human race advances 2 steps forward and then forgets the past and tries to change things, and takes a step backwards....the adjusts and goes again. Over 1000's of years this has worked very well when the world adapted and changed but was not connected. We now are much more connected and every change can have huge ramifications. The human race has not adapted to the new communication methods...this is allowing some scary things to happen

The fact that we are more connected should mean that we can work together without being ruled by someone else. The problem of economic migration happened because of new communication methods. But it was the lack of change to cope that led to that huge problem. Fear should not deter change.

 

[Edwin]

It's like Tesco's....they have a discount. I suspect the EU will change the wording in future as they never thought it would be used that much to bite them in the arse. The real number is more like £180 million per week.

It must have broken some sort of record for the most overspent £180 million a week in history.

First, it was all going to be spent on the NHS. But then it was also going to compensate businesses for the losses incurred due to increased tariffs. Oh, and also compensate the farmers for the loss of the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. And also help scientific institutions get over the loss of EU grants, then also boost university funding too. With every day that passes, the hypothetical "saving" gets spent by the Leave camp another time over.

Remain come up with another shortfall that will ensue from brexit, Leave pledges to spend the £350 million a week on it, as if they're playing with a magic lamp that grants unlimited wishes.

It has been Leave's stock, go-to answer to everything in every debate (when they're not doing a Farage and claiming "there are more important things than money")

It's like walking around with £10 in your pocket, and proclaiming loudly "I'm going to buy that jacket, and that DVD and that book and that coffee mug and that boardgame and that rucksack, and... and... and..." when A) most of them cost over £10 each and B) at most you can afford one of them...

Oh, and C) an unexpected expense comes up because of a change in your circumstances, and suddenly you've got -£50 in your pocket instead of +£10, and all you're left with is window-shopping and kicking pebbles around.

 

[dougs]

It's best to read them all to get a balanced outlook in order to form an opinion. Especially when the opinion is important. I respect anyone who forms an opinion if they read every article written. I try not to be selective, I will read with interest what people say even if I have a dislike of them.
and that includes lord and lady Kinnock those devoted socialists who went to the EU to reform it and now sit in the house of lords in order to reform that. I do suspect when these people get on these gravy trains they forget why they got on.

People become what they read......sometimes being selective and limiting the "spin" is a good idea. Every fact about Trump is utter madness but the amount of media gets is directly proportionate to his proportion of the vote...so many people are reading many things with his name in it.

 

[dougs]

A touch over-generous and wasteful? They waste £130,000,000 every year switching between Brussels and Strasbourg every month. They all know it's a waste of time money but 27 other members can't do nothing about it because just ONE (France) has a veto. Don't worry though as I'm sure we'll be able to change that if we stupidly vote remain.

Not to mention all the corruption that everybody knows is going on. They probably make FIFA look whiter than white. But not to worry, as long as it benefits the UK then long may it continue while we look the other way.

The Strasbourg thing is a mess agreed, but when it was started I am sure they thought this will be a good idea....people make mistakes that can be hard to change...if we stay in probably we won't be able to change it.

Corruption is a strong word when you are talking about governments...FIFA was a company. Any conspiracy you have missed?

 

[Edwin]

A touch over-generous and wasteful? They waste £130,000,000 every year switching between Brussels and Strasbourg every month. They all know it's a waste of time money but 27 other members can't do nothing about it because just ONE (France) has a veto. Don't worry though as I'm sure we'll be able to change that if we stupidly vote remain.

Not to mention all the corruption that everybody knows is going on. They probably make FIFA look whiter than white. But not to worry, as long as it benefits the UK then long may it continue while we look the other way.

Even if they bathed in champagne every night, it still wouldn't be relevant to the wider discussion of how much the UK gets out of being a member of the EU. One has very, very little to do with the other. The waste is infuriating, teeth-grinding - but it's still a sideshow to the big issue.

Though I agree there seems to be a strong case for reform. But it's not a gambling-your-country-on-it-strong case!

Oh, and while £130,000,000 may sound ludicrously huge to us, it's such chump change to the whole EU economy that it's impossible to take seriously the notion that there's some kind of vast conspiracy churning away to somehow defraud the European continent of the money. It would be like two people conspiring over a £5 note!

Hanlon's razor very much applies...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor

 

[martin-s]

Absolutely. Like the £350 million that was being parroted again this evening. That has been debunked at least a hundred times by different organisations so far.

It's good news Edwin! For every time Leave mentions the £350m figure, you get to mention what hokum it is at least 3-4 times

It plays right into your hands - money is your first choice topic in this debate

 

[Edwin]

Plenty of corruption, plenty of waste, plenty of problems to deal with. No-one is claiming the EU is perfect.

However, shooting yourself in the head is not the best way to deal with a headache

If only that fitted into 140 characters...

 

[websaway]

It's like Tesco's....they have a discount. I suspect the EU will change the wording in future as they never thought it would be used that much to bite them in the arse. The real number is more like £180 million per week.

How has it bit them in the arse , the people who vote out won't be voting on the basis of 350 or 180 million, most of them don't feel the money , can't relate to it one way or the other. But they do feel the strain of immigration, they can relate to it , it's tangible, it's not what they read in the papers, it's what they see on the streets, and in the schools and the hospitals and at the doctors surgery. The disagreement on this matter arises when some think it's the newspapers scaremongering and they live in an environment where they are not subjected to the problems .
I think the rebate is negotiable so can't be relied on. I think that's the argument anyway.

 

[Toonz]

One thing that's become quite clear to me following this debate - and in particular on this forum - is how little I know about the economic argument. I'm not joking when I say that I really do feel that I shouldn't be voting on this in 2 weeks time. I agree with the Leave side that economics is not the only issue, but still, it's one hell of an important one.

 

[bonusmedia]

How has it bit them in the arse , the people who vote out won't be voting on the basis of 350 or 180 million, most of them don't feel the money , can't relate to it one way or the other. But they do feel the strain of immigration, they can relate to it , it's tangible, it's not what they read in the papers, it's what they see on the streets, and in the schools and the hospitals and at the doctors surgery. The disagreement on this matter arises when some think it's the newspapers scaremongering and they live in an environment where they are not subjected to the problems .
I think the rebate is negotiable so can't be relied on. I think that's the argument anyway.

Actually it's typically those with the least experience of immigration who are most opposed to it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...little-experience-of-immigration-9659499.html

 

[websaway]

Thanks for that. There's some fascinating data in there.


Because the rebate can vary. I'll hastily and emphatically add that it's been fixed well into the future and has all sorts of veto rights relating to it so it is not "in danger". But the important word is "can". Other factors can also vary and over long periods (decades) they do a bit. So it's easier to treat each figure on both sides as factors in an equation, and plug in the values every month to get the answer. And that's true even if the answer's the same month after month, year after year - the underlying formula is still there in case any of the factors need to be changed. In other words, the logic that leads up to the final figure is preserved.

If you put it into the context of a relationship between two people, it makes more sense.

Person A stays in person's B house, and pays £100 a month in rent. But Person A does most of the shopping, so every month Person B gives him £40 back for his share of the food. Person A also cleans the bathroom, something that Person B hates, so Person B pays him £5 for that. And so on. At the beginning of the month, the answer to the question "How much does Person A owe Person B?" is £100. But by the time they come to square their debts on pay-day, Person A actually always owes £35.

Person A now leaves Person B's house and they have nothing to do with each other thereafter. So Person A no longer has to hand over £100. But Person B no longers owes Person A anything for food, or for kindly doing the cleaning, or X, or Y. The net result for Person A is that they have £35 more in their pocket every month - not £100!

Float that by me again.
Maths was never my thirte
No only joking.

your falling into your talking to children mode again.

 

[AlistairM]

Oh, and while £130,000,000 may sound ludicrously huge to us, it's such chump change to the whole EU economy that it's impossible to take seriously the notion that there's some kind of vast conspiracy churning away to somehow defraud the European continent of the money. It would be like two people conspiring over a £5 note!

Hanlon's razor very much applies...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor

And that from the person complaining about the £350,000,000 figure. Don't worry mate, it's chump change.

 

[Edwin]

One thing that's become quite clear to me following this debate - and in particular on this forum - is how little I know about the economic argument. I'm not joking when I say that I really do feel that I shouldn't be voting on this in 2 weeks time. I agree with the Leave side that economics is not the only issue, but still, it's one hell of an important one.

That's why I suggested a few pages back that this referendum will turn out to be Cameron's biggest mistake. He's basically doing brain surgery by way of a show of hands ("Ok, six of you voted to go left. Now shall I cut deeper, or fetch the big drill?").

And I genuinely think he didn't realise just how hard the nuances of the issue are to grasp, since he and everyone around him (including his fellow Tories on the Leave side) have been immersed in this stuff for decades.

 

[bonusmedia]

And that from the person complaining about the £350,000,000 figure. Don't worry mate, it's chump change.

130M per year coming from the whole continent is a lot less than 350M per week from a single country. Orders of magnitude different.

 

[websaway]

Actually it's typically those with the least experience of immigration who are most opposed to it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...little-experience-of-immigration-9659499.html

That was probably the think tank advising the government. Clearly got it wrong.

 

[bonusmedia]

Float that by me again.
Maths was never my thirte
No only joking.

your falling into your talking to children mode again.

Perhaps if you were slightly less childish...

 

[Edwin]

My prediction: if things are still as grim in a week's time, Cameron may choose to sacrifice the Tory party (for an election cycle or two, anyway) for the good of the country and authorise massive "blue-on-blue" strikes using the plainest, bluntest possible language, until there's nobody left with a shred of credibility on either side.

Either that, or promise to resign on a "Remain" vote but stay on a "Leave" vote, to wind up the people who are treating the referendum as being about him, not our shared future in the EU (the latter's not a prediction, btw, just my little joke - he would never be selfless enough)

 

[Toonz]

He's basically doing brain surgery by way of a show of hands ("Ok, six of you voted to go left. Now shall I cut deeper, or fetch the big drill?").

You do realise I'm going to have to steal that analogy.

 

[AlistairM]

Maybe he shouldn't have called a referendum if he was so concerned about the effects he's claiming could happen if we leave. But he called it pretty quickly as well, I wonder why? What's he know that we don't about what little surprises the EU is lining up. I don't believe it's all down to trying to avoid the summer of fun with all the migrants trying to get into Europe. I just really hope he's shot himself in the foot, with a Brimstone missile.

 

[dougs]

How has it bit them in the arse , the people who vote out won't be voting on the basis of 350 or 180 million, most of them don't feel the money , can't relate to it one way or the other. But they do feel the strain of immigration, they can relate to it , it's tangible, it's not what they read in the papers, it's what they see on the streets, and in the schools and the hospitals and at the doctors surgery. The disagreement on this matter arises when some think it's the newspapers scaremongering and they live in an environment where they are not subjected to the problems .
I think the rebate is negotiable so can't be relied on. I think that's the argument anyway.

Immigration of EU members is an economic benefit, enough data on that. Irrelevant of IN or OUT this vote will be decided by people who feel that they could have done better in the world, but alas have not and it is someone else's fault. People always blame the OTHER tribe...just watch the football fighting...the colour of a shirt dictates wether you should be beaten up. Trump is riding the same wave....this I found interesting:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/trump-university-its-worse-than-you-think