EU Referendum

[websaway]

It's like Tesco's....they have a discount. I suspect the EU will change the wording in future as they never thought it would be used that much to bite them in the arse. The real number is more like £180 million per week.

How has it bit them in the arse , the people who vote out won't be voting on the basis of 350 or 180 million, most of them don't feel the money , can't relate to it one way or the other. But they do feel the strain of immigration, they can relate to it , it's tangible, it's not what they read in the papers, it's what they see on the streets, and in the schools and the hospitals and at the doctors surgery. The disagreement on this matter arises when some think it's the newspapers scaremongering and they live in an environment where they are not subjected to the problems .
I think the rebate is negotiable so can't be relied on. I think that's the argument anyway.

 

[Toonz]

One thing that's become quite clear to me following this debate - and in particular on this forum - is how little I know about the economic argument. I'm not joking when I say that I really do feel that I shouldn't be voting on this in 2 weeks time. I agree with the Leave side that economics is not the only issue, but still, it's one hell of an important one.

 

[bonusmedia]

How has it bit them in the arse , the people who vote out won't be voting on the basis of 350 or 180 million, most of them don't feel the money , can't relate to it one way or the other. But they do feel the strain of immigration, they can relate to it , it's tangible, it's not what they read in the papers, it's what they see on the streets, and in the schools and the hospitals and at the doctors surgery. The disagreement on this matter arises when some think it's the newspapers scaremongering and they live in an environment where they are not subjected to the problems .
I think the rebate is negotiable so can't be relied on. I think that's the argument anyway.

Actually it's typically those with the least experience of immigration who are most opposed to it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...little-experience-of-immigration-9659499.html

 

[websaway]

Thanks for that. There's some fascinating data in there.


Because the rebate can vary. I'll hastily and emphatically add that it's been fixed well into the future and has all sorts of veto rights relating to it so it is not "in danger". But the important word is "can". Other factors can also vary and over long periods (decades) they do a bit. So it's easier to treat each figure on both sides as factors in an equation, and plug in the values every month to get the answer. And that's true even if the answer's the same month after month, year after year - the underlying formula is still there in case any of the factors need to be changed. In other words, the logic that leads up to the final figure is preserved.

If you put it into the context of a relationship between two people, it makes more sense.

Person A stays in person's B house, and pays £100 a month in rent. But Person A does most of the shopping, so every month Person B gives him £40 back for his share of the food. Person A also cleans the bathroom, something that Person B hates, so Person B pays him £5 for that. And so on. At the beginning of the month, the answer to the question "How much does Person A owe Person B?" is £100. But by the time they come to square their debts on pay-day, Person A actually always owes £35.

Person A now leaves Person B's house and they have nothing to do with each other thereafter. So Person A no longer has to hand over £100. But Person B no longers owes Person A anything for food, or for kindly doing the cleaning, or X, or Y. The net result for Person A is that they have £35 more in their pocket every month - not £100!

Float that by me again.
Maths was never my thirte
No only joking.

your falling into your talking to children mode again.

 

[AlistairM]

Oh, and while £130,000,000 may sound ludicrously huge to us, it's such chump change to the whole EU economy that it's impossible to take seriously the notion that there's some kind of vast conspiracy churning away to somehow defraud the European continent of the money. It would be like two people conspiring over a £5 note!

Hanlon's razor very much applies...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor

And that from the person complaining about the £350,000,000 figure. Don't worry mate, it's chump change.

 

[Edwin]

One thing that's become quite clear to me following this debate - and in particular on this forum - is how little I know about the economic argument. I'm not joking when I say that I really do feel that I shouldn't be voting on this in 2 weeks time. I agree with the Leave side that economics is not the only issue, but still, it's one hell of an important one.

That's why I suggested a few pages back that this referendum will turn out to be Cameron's biggest mistake. He's basically doing brain surgery by way of a show of hands ("Ok, six of you voted to go left. Now shall I cut deeper, or fetch the big drill?").

And I genuinely think he didn't realise just how hard the nuances of the issue are to grasp, since he and everyone around him (including his fellow Tories on the Leave side) have been immersed in this stuff for decades.

 

[bonusmedia]

And that from the person complaining about the £350,000,000 figure. Don't worry mate, it's chump change.

130M per year coming from the whole continent is a lot less than 350M per week from a single country. Orders of magnitude different.

 

[websaway]

Actually it's typically those with the least experience of immigration who are most opposed to it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...little-experience-of-immigration-9659499.html

That was probably the think tank advising the government. Clearly got it wrong.

 

[bonusmedia]

Float that by me again.
Maths was never my thirte
No only joking.

your falling into your talking to children mode again.

Perhaps if you were slightly less childish...

 

[Edwin]

My prediction: if things are still as grim in a week's time, Cameron may choose to sacrifice the Tory party (for an election cycle or two, anyway) for the good of the country and authorise massive "blue-on-blue" strikes using the plainest, bluntest possible language, until there's nobody left with a shred of credibility on either side.

Either that, or promise to resign on a "Remain" vote but stay on a "Leave" vote, to wind up the people who are treating the referendum as being about him, not our shared future in the EU (the latter's not a prediction, btw, just my little joke - he would never be selfless enough)

 

[Toonz]

He's basically doing brain surgery by way of a show of hands ("Ok, six of you voted to go left. Now shall I cut deeper, or fetch the big drill?").

You do realise I'm going to have to steal that analogy.

 

[AlistairM]

Maybe he shouldn't have called a referendum if he was so concerned about the effects he's claiming could happen if we leave. But he called it pretty quickly as well, I wonder why? What's he know that we don't about what little surprises the EU is lining up. I don't believe it's all down to trying to avoid the summer of fun with all the migrants trying to get into Europe. I just really hope he's shot himself in the foot, with a Brimstone missile.

 

[dougs]

How has it bit them in the arse , the people who vote out won't be voting on the basis of 350 or 180 million, most of them don't feel the money , can't relate to it one way or the other. But they do feel the strain of immigration, they can relate to it , it's tangible, it's not what they read in the papers, it's what they see on the streets, and in the schools and the hospitals and at the doctors surgery. The disagreement on this matter arises when some think it's the newspapers scaremongering and they live in an environment where they are not subjected to the problems .
I think the rebate is negotiable so can't be relied on. I think that's the argument anyway.

Immigration of EU members is an economic benefit, enough data on that. Irrelevant of IN or OUT this vote will be decided by people who feel that they could have done better in the world, but alas have not and it is someone else's fault. People always blame the OTHER tribe...just watch the football fighting...the colour of a shirt dictates wether you should be beaten up. Trump is riding the same wave....this I found interesting:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/trump-university-its-worse-than-you-think

 

[dougs]

And that from the person complaining about the £350,000,000 figure. Don't worry mate, it's chump change.

£130 million in one lump
£350 million per week

makes the £130 look like chump change

 

[bonusmedia]

My prediction: if things are still as grim in a week's time, Cameron may choose to sacrifice the Tory party (for an election cycle or two, anyway) for the good of the country and authorise massive "blue-on-blue" strikes using the plainest, bluntest possible language, until there's nobody left with a shred of credibility on either side.

Either that, or promise to resign on a "Remain" vote but stay on a "Leave" vote, to wind up the people who are treating the referendum as being about him, not our shared future in the EU (the latter's not a prediction, btw, just my little joke - he would never be selfless enough)

I would have to begrudgingly respect him for falling on his sword, even if he did unsheathe it and leave it lying around with the pointy end in the air

 

[Edwin]

£130 million in one lump
£350 million per week

makes the £130 look like chump change

£13,000,000,000,000 (EU GDP). Puts everything into perspective. If you like your astronomy, that's 130x the number of stars in the galaxy.

 

[AlistairM]

£130 million in one lump
£350 million per week

makes the £130 look like chump change

So now it is £350m per week. Their dastardly ploy seems to be working my dears.

 

[dougs]

£13,000,000,000,000 (EU GDP). Puts everything into perspective.

£18,000,000,000,000
£130,000,000

 

[websaway]

One thing that's become quite clear to me following this debate - and in particular on this forum - is how little I know about the economic argument. I'm not joking when I say that I really do feel that I shouldn't be voting on this in 2 weeks time. I agree with the Leave side that economics is not the only issue, but still, it's one hell of an important one.

I know lots of people who were quite content with the EU, like myself, never a Euro sceptic. It's only when the gloves came off and the people who have been lobbying for years were allowed to openly give their points of view, knowing it could have an effect , due to the referendum, and most of those people have weighed up the pro's and con's and have decided to vote out. The other thing that has swung it massively is being able to talk about uncontrolled immigration without feeling like a racist , which no one with any moral values wants to be.

 

[Edwin]

So now it is £350m per week. Their dastardly ploy seems to be working my dears.

Kind of proves the point. The £350 million is the "two girls, one cup" of this debate: once seen, never unseeable.