EU Referendum

[spiderspider]

I wonder what would happen to UKIP if "Leave" win?

If we leave:
They will spend the next 2 years making sure that the split is negotiated in the best interests of the UK. For example, if the EU offer is access to market in exchange for continued free movement, they would resist this as much as possible. There are also numerous other things that have be split (fisheries, agriculture, trade, energy) that will require negotiation.

Then there are other trade deals to consider, and where should you start? According to UKIP, start with the commonwealth first, then rest of the world. Reason being, we can't at the moment, as we have to follow the EU tariffs on trade.

There would then be continual campaigning to ensure that the UK remains independent.

Think of it like this, if the SNP gets independence for Scotland, will it fold over night? No, of course it wouldn't. UKIP is in the same situation.

If we stay:
If it was a close call, expect it to be contested, and talked about for ages, and in 4 years time expect another referendum (with a different Prime Minister and probably leader of the opposition to, depending on how he handles Chilcot could be sooner than later). Expect UKIP to keep going.

If it is a slam dunk stay, then UKIP funds will probably start to dry up, as supporters have been and tried, and failed.

Either way, don't expect to see Nigel Farrage leaving your TV screens anytime soon.

 

[Toonz]

I think what happens to UKIP will, to a large extent, depend on what happens to the Conservative Party.

If Britain chooses to leave, the Tory Right will take over and, with no remotely credible Labour party waiting in the wings, have a fairly healthy run in government, steadily transferring power and workers' rights and consumer rights to big business. (This will all be done under the guise of cutting red tape, abolishing quangoes, stripping out bureaucracy and 'simplifying' processes.)

With the EU decision out the way and with less to distinguish the new Tories from UKIP - not to mention UKIP facing serious financial problems and very deep internal disagreements - I would be very surprised if Farage's party continued for much longer.

A combined Tory-UKIP party would be a formidable force as it spans a larger proportion of the British electorate than Labour-LD-Green.

A happy outcome for some here perhaps but a pretty depressing one for me.

 

[gimpydog]

Any truth in what he was saying about the EU sheltering big business from tax.

I think he was referring to the way EU single market laws allow big business to transfer costs & profits to low tax countries - Ireland, Luxembourg etc.

 

[gimpydog]

I worry what rights upper class tax dodging torries would erode away if it weren't for the European courts

Look at the much-quoted maternity leave, for example. The EU gives you 3 months minimum, but UK law is 12 months. I find it hard to believe that any UK government could whittle that down to 3 months, unless they did so under cover of EU harmonisation.

I wonder what would happen to UKIP if "Leave" win?

Don't worry about UKIP for gods' sake, worry about the matter in hand & the loss of our hard-won democracy.

 

[Edwin]

Since the negotiation period after submitting a request to leave the EU is 2 years, I presume pretty much everything will be done and dusted well before the next election, which isn't until 2020. So UKIP's hypothetical role in that process will be literally zero. (They only have 1 MP so they can't influence the negotiation process one way or another.)

 

[Edwin]

Reminder: if you've not yet registered to vote, there are only 3 days left to do so!

https://www.eureferendum.gov.uk/register-to-vote/

 

[scottmccloud]

If we did indeed leave, then we could see UKIP evolve into a UK libertarian party. I know we have these types of parties already in the UK but UKIP are the closest we've got to a popular mainstream one.

 

[RobM]

It's odd to see people talking about the Labour party as if they still factor into anything. Because of the awful voting system in the UK now they have no chance of ever winning an election again as long as SNP continues to exist and take all the seats in Scotland. Without Scotland they can never gather enough votes to be in power again. This is not my political opinion just an observation. I don't think any party politics make a difference to this vote though.

 

[Edwin]

One possible scenario is that Britain leaves and the much predicted economic shock happens. That would pretty much vapourise support for UKIP since it would show that the "Remain" warnings had been true all along. But whether that would boost the Tories more than other parties or hurt them is hard to say.

One thing's for sure: since Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives are all on the same side for pretty much the first time in living memory, none of the three main parties can make political capital out of whatever result we end up with.

The nearest might be a grumble aimed at David Cameron that he gave us a referendum at all, but I don't see an argument suggesting that it would have been better not to give people a vote at all getting very far (even though it may well turn out to be true)

 

[Edwin]

It's odd to see people talking about the Labour party as if they still factor into anything. Because of the awful voting system in the UK now they have no chance of ever winning an election again as long as SNP continues to exist and take all the seats in Scotland. Without Scotland they can never gather enough votes to be in power again. This is not my political opinion just an observation. I don't think any party politics make a difference to this vote though.

They still have a role to play as "spoiler" if there's only a narrow majority - witness the stream of Commons defeats and U-turns recently.

But you're spot on: as a party of government, Labour is spent.

 

[Toonz]

One possible scenario is that Britain leaves and the much predicted economic shock happens. That would pretty much vapourise support for UKIP since it would show that the "Remain" warnings had been true all along. But whether that would boost the Tories more than other parties or hurt them is hard to say.

If UKIP are vaporised, their voters will likely turn to the Tories which is where most of them originated. Labour remain deeply untrusted on the economy so we'd probably be looking at a boost to the moderate wing of the Tory party.

One thing's for sure: since Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives are all on the same side for pretty much the first time in living memory, none of the three main parties can make political capital out of whatever result we end up with.

Unless there's a commanding win for Remain, I think Cameron is toast after the referendum and there will be a power shift to the eurosceptic Tories, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Boris, Govey, etc. In a sense they could be viewed as if they're a new party disconnected from the Cameron-Osborne era so they'd benefit from a honeymoon period.

 

[Edwin]

Unless there's a commanding win for Remain, I think Cameron is toast after the referendum and there will be a power shift to the eurosceptic Tories, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Boris, Govey, etc. In a sense they could be viewed as if they're a new party disconnected from the Cameron-Osborne era so they'd benefit from a honeymoon period.

I agree - a very narrow win or a loss and Cameron will be gone in fairly short order - which probably means Boris as PM. If, on the other hand, there's a strong Remain win, then I expect Cameron will (quite rightly) purge the cabinet and top ranks of those who have been such thorns in his side the last few months, and enjoy another 3 years before the fight to succeed him begins in earnest.

 

[spiderspider]

(They only have 1 MP so they can't influence the negotiation process one way or another.)

What utter tosh!

How many MEPs do they have?

Do you think they didn't influence any when they had zero MPs?

They are the main reason we have this referendum. It wouldn't have happened without them. If we had proportional representation, they would be a big party in parliament.

But then that's not what the Guardian reports, so you probably didn't know

 

[Brassneck]

I agree - a very narrow win or a loss and Cameron will be gone in fairly short order - which probably means Boris as PM. If, on the other hand, there's a strong Remain win, then I expect Cameron will (quite rightly) purge the cabinet and top ranks of those who have been such thorns in his side the last few months, and enjoy another 3 years before the fight to succeed him begins in earnest.

Out of interest, what would be considered to be a commanding win - 52 v 48, 55 v 45, 60 v 40 or better?

 

[Edwin]

What utter tosh!

How many MEPs do they have?

Do you think they didn't influence any when they had zero MPs?

They are the main reason we have this referendum. It wouldn't have happened without them. If we had proportional representation, they would be a big party in parliament.

But then that's not what the Guardian reports, so you probably didn't know

I know all about their 20-odd MEPs.

But I was talking about a "Leave" situation. In that case, the UK government will need to enact laws to replicate the EU ones they want to "keep" (either unchanged or modified) that they'll lose by leaving the EU. That's predominantly a matter for our national parliament, not the EU parliament. And nationally UKIP have a single MP.

And I already pointed out that UKIP will go down in history as a huge success if the result is a "Leave" - that's fully reflective of their influence.

Here's a bit more about the MEP situation (in the event of a "Leave" vote)

According to the article, if the U.K. decides to leave the Union it would need to notify other EU member countries in the European Council and then negotiate an agreement with them on the terms of its withdrawal.

During the negotiation phase, British officials would in principle continue to fully exercise their rights within the EU institutions. But they would lose their political champions in the EU, as neither the British prime minister nor British officials in the Council would be allowed to participate in deliberations and decisions affecting their country.

(The above is talking about the Article 50 mechanism for leaving the EU, quoted from:
http://www.politico.eu/article/brexodus-from-brussels-looms-for-british-eu-officials-brexit-leave/ - the bold is my highlight)

 

[Edwin]

Out of interest, what would be considered to be a commanding win - 52 v 48, 55 v 45, 60 v 40 or better?

I'd say 55 v 45 is already (politically) commanding, since that will probably work out to several million more votes on one side compared to the other (subject to turnout being reasonably high - there hasn't been a referendum specifically like this one before, so who knows what turnout will be like).

 

[newguy]

-

 

[websaway]

Cameron said that if we leave the EU France and other countries will punish us. So what does he think of the morals of this mafiosa type organisation.

 

[Edwin]

Cameron said that if we leave the EU France and other countries will punish us. So what does he think of the morals of this mafiosa type organisation.

Are his thoughts on their morals remotely relevant? Surely it's the consequences of their actions that are going to hurt the UK, regardless of whether they have good/bad reasons for them... Even if they had the worst reasons for acting you could possibly dream up, the effects of their actions will be just as harmful as if they did it out of love and kindness.

It is perfectly understandable that the rest of the EU will seek to "punish" the UK for leaving so as to slam the door shut on other countries going down the same path. And with so many EU-related things requiring a consensus of all EU countries, it only takes one out of the remainder to give the UK a bloody nose for having "messed" with the harmony of the EU.

And that has real, tangible consequences for the UK economy, freedom of movement, job prospects etc.

(It's this same unanimity that has destroyed the Greek economy because the EU had to keep going round and round and round until the austerity measures were draconian enough to get the agreement of EVERY single country.)

Not to mention that as soon as the UK invokes Article 50, they're effectively going to be "sent out of the room" on negotiations that affect other EU countries, since the EU won't allow a leaving member to affect laws that they won't be subject to by virtue of having declared their intent to leave.

Is any of the above nice? No.

Is any of the above "fair"? Arguably not.

But it's the reality we live in, and to deny that reality is the equivalent of sticking ones hands over one ears and going "la-la-la" until the monster goes away.

 

[websaway]

Are his thoughts on their morals remotely relevant? Surely it's the consequences of their actions that are going to hurt the UK, regardless of whether they have good/bad reasons for them... Even if they had the worst reasons for acting you could possibly dream up, the effects of their actions will be just as harmful as if they did it out of love and kindness.

It is perfectly understandable that the rest of the EU will seek to "punish" the UK for leaving so as to slam the door shut on other countries going down the same path. And with so many EU-related things requiring a consensus of all EU countries, it only takes one out of the remainder to give the UK a bloody nose for having "messed" with the harmony of the EU.

And that has real, tangible consequences for the UK economy, freedom of movement, job prospects etc.

(It's this same unanimity that has destroyed the Greek economy because the EU had to keep going round and round and round until the austerity measures were draconian enough to get the agreement of EVERY single country.)

Not to mention that as soon as the UK invokes Article 50, they're effectively going to be "sent out of the room" on negotiations that affect other EU countries, since the EU won't allow a leaving member to affect laws that they won't be subject to by virtue of having declared their intent to leave.

Is any of the above nice? No.

Is any of the above "fair"? Arguably not.

But it's the reality we live in, and to deny that reality is the equivalent of sticking ones hands over one ears and going "la-la-la" until the monster goes away.

So you agree then, once in it's a kind of mafiosa type of organisation.