EU Referendum

[AssetDomains]

What did people make a Gove no hard facts again. Any truth in what he was saying about the EU sheltering big business from tax. to honest I thought that was more of a tory practice they certainly give google a sweet deal

 

[Edwin]

Gove came across better than Cameron presentationally, but he offered absolutely no firm answers to anything at all.

The intro, where he couldn't name any economic bodies, economists, international bodies or allied leaders who shared his view set the tone for what followed.

It's a toss-up whether the positive tone won over the home audience more than the lack of facts sabotaged him.

 

[Brassneck]

What did people make a Gove no hard facts again. Any truth in what he was saying about the EU sheltering big business from tax. to honest I thought that was more of a tory practice they certainly give google a sweet deal

I don't know that much about tax shelters, but aren't there quite a few in British territories anyway? I'm not aware of the EU being overly protective of the likes of Google and I'm not even sure that the EU has much say in national taxation policies.

 

[Toonz]

I like that Gove is clearly passionate about Brexit and his interest appears to be genuine and longstanding. He's an old-fashioned conviction politician who is intelligent and articulate and British politics needs more of those, even if we profoundly disagree with them. Gove isn't exactly known as a natural 'people person' and with his Orville the Duck features he's the very opposite of the smooth, telegenic politician. But I think the public will have appreciated his appeals to patriotism and faith, even though those things do little for me, and he will have done well.

On the downside, he was disappointingly evasive and kept avoiding answering the questions posed to him and skirting around awkward facts. That somewhat tarnished his performance because it meant he was only really succeeding when he was on his own terrain, talking about what he wanted to talk about. The awkward facts had to be swept under the carpet. However it was a powerful emotional argument delivered capably and, for a lot of people, that will have swung it.

 

[websaway]

Gove came across better than Cameron presentationally, but he offered absolutely no firm answers to anything at all.

The intro, where he couldn't name any economic bodies, economists, international bodies or allied leaders who shared his view set the tone for what followed.

It's a toss-up whether the positive tone won over the home audience more than the lack of facts sabotaged him.

I suspect he calculated that immigration was driving the out vote and didn't want to get into naming names, anyone who could be asked a leading question tomorrow and deny it and it would then dent the leave argument. It's strange how the EU is so brilliant we have had a bedroom tax, reductions in working credits, cutbacks on disability benefits and yet the rich just seem to get obscenely richer.
The establishment are happy to promote the in vote because after all they are being paid to do so. Anyone outside the establishment may say they favour out but won't nail their colours to the mast and choose instead to just cast their out vote. It is similar to the old soviet union whereby you can say what you want but be careful of your future.
The true out voters are the ordinary people in the street, the people who really want control of their country back, they are not really bothered if the bankers don't get their bonuses or if the celebrity well to do's house prices drop off a cliff.

 

[websaway]

I notice the remains will not enter into the issue of democracy. Someone last night when asked, said, well what about the Lords do you call that democracy. That tended to say well two wrongs make a right. When will the argument really come on to democracy and who will be seen to be able to defend an organisation that is clearly not as democratic as our own system .

 

[Toonz]

Democracy is one of the most noble arguments for Brexit, and for me at least, one of the most convincing.

 

[AlistairM]

Gove definitely had a better night than Cameron did. I'm not sure what facts people want though? Do they really want facts or a fortune teller?

 

[martin-s]

A question for anyone in the "Leave" camp who voted in the last election for any party other than UKIP...

Even if you don't trust Cameron and the Conservatives, why do you no longer trust the party you gave your vote to just over a year ago? (After all, every party except UKIP is advocating "Remain")

This is a single vote issue. General elections are a Conservative v Labour issue. It's not rocket science

Plus, until Cameron's about-face on "ruling nothing out", I felt he was relative trustworthy. Now I have no faith in him telling the truth whatsoever.

 

[AssetDomains]

It's strange how the EU is so brilliant we have had a bedroom tax, reductions in working credits, cutbacks on disability benefits and yet the rich just seem to get obscenely richer.

Do you honestly think the situation would be any better if the torries were given free reign. I have grave concerns about loss of democracy at the very top of the EU its the main thing that could sway me over to the leave side. I'd argue they have done a lot more for your average working guy than torries ever did.
I worry what rights upper class tax dodging torries would erode away if it weren't for the European courts

 

[Edwin]

I wonder what would happen to UKIP if "Leave" win? After all, it's close to being a single-purpose party, so its utility will have run its course, albeit with a huge "win" that will go down in the history books as a resounding success, if the UK's no longer in the EU.

With UKIP marginalised (or gone) what would that mean for the vote share of the other parties? Would the UK be facing Conservative majorities for decades? Many commentators already suggest that Labour's pretty much unelectable given the demographic and boundary hurdles they have to face, even before taking a dwindled UKIP into consideration.

And what would that mean for the country if it were governed by Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith etc. with an increased majority and pretty much free rein to do anything they liked?

 

[websaway]

Do you honestly think the situation would be any better if the torries were given free reign. I have grave concerns about loss of democracy at the very top of the EU its the main thing that could sway me over to the leave side. I'd argue they have done a lot more for your average working guy than torries ever did.
I worry what rights upper class tax dodging torries would erode away if it weren't for the European courts

These things are of Europe but not because of Europe.
And I have grave concerns about the minimum wage and immigration.
It's fast becoming the " Maximum Wage "

 

[websaway]

o

I wonder what would happen to UKIP if "Leave" win? After all, it's close to being a single-purpose party, so its utility will have run its course, albeit with a huge "win" that will go down in the history books as a resounding success, if the UK's no longer in the EU.

With UKIP marginalised (or gone) what would that mean for the vote share of the other parties? Would the UK be facing Conservative majorities for decades? Many commentators already suggest that Labour's pretty much unelectable given the demographic and boundary hurdles they have to face, even before taking a dwindled UKIP into consideration.

And what would that mean for the country if it were governed by Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith etc. with an increased majority and pretty much free rein to do anything they liked?

A centre ground labour would almost certainly either brake away from comrade corbyn or get rid of him. But in any event as always it would be our democratic system that decided. Sorry that's not scary. What is scary is to have a ussr type of super state run by bureaucrats with elected EU MP's on £ 8,000 per month plus expenses simply for sitting around listening to what is being decided. A gravy train where failed UK politicians like lord and lady Kinnock can go and earn £100,000 per year with great big fat pensions to fund their champagne socialist lifestyles and then to sit in the house of Lords of which incidentally Kinnock was a life long critic and he even refused to attend the queens speech in 1977. Mrs Kinnock supported the UK joining the Euro Zone in 2003 and pointed out that was why British trade had fallen compared to the Euro Zone countries in that year. No wonder this category of inept people have their heads turned for money and position and want to remain on the EU gravy train, it opened new doors to them, a far larger political employment exchange.

 

[spiderspider]

I wonder what would happen to UKIP if "Leave" win?

If we leave:
They will spend the next 2 years making sure that the split is negotiated in the best interests of the UK. For example, if the EU offer is access to market in exchange for continued free movement, they would resist this as much as possible. There are also numerous other things that have be split (fisheries, agriculture, trade, energy) that will require negotiation.

Then there are other trade deals to consider, and where should you start? According to UKIP, start with the commonwealth first, then rest of the world. Reason being, we can't at the moment, as we have to follow the EU tariffs on trade.

There would then be continual campaigning to ensure that the UK remains independent.

Think of it like this, if the SNP gets independence for Scotland, will it fold over night? No, of course it wouldn't. UKIP is in the same situation.

If we stay:
If it was a close call, expect it to be contested, and talked about for ages, and in 4 years time expect another referendum (with a different Prime Minister and probably leader of the opposition to, depending on how he handles Chilcot could be sooner than later). Expect UKIP to keep going.

If it is a slam dunk stay, then UKIP funds will probably start to dry up, as supporters have been and tried, and failed.

Either way, don't expect to see Nigel Farrage leaving your TV screens anytime soon.

 

[Toonz]

I think what happens to UKIP will, to a large extent, depend on what happens to the Conservative Party.

If Britain chooses to leave, the Tory Right will take over and, with no remotely credible Labour party waiting in the wings, have a fairly healthy run in government, steadily transferring power and workers' rights and consumer rights to big business. (This will all be done under the guise of cutting red tape, abolishing quangoes, stripping out bureaucracy and 'simplifying' processes.)

With the EU decision out the way and with less to distinguish the new Tories from UKIP - not to mention UKIP facing serious financial problems and very deep internal disagreements - I would be very surprised if Farage's party continued for much longer.

A combined Tory-UKIP party would be a formidable force as it spans a larger proportion of the British electorate than Labour-LD-Green.

A happy outcome for some here perhaps but a pretty depressing one for me.

 

[gimpydog]

Any truth in what he was saying about the EU sheltering big business from tax.

I think he was referring to the way EU single market laws allow big business to transfer costs & profits to low tax countries - Ireland, Luxembourg etc.

 

[gimpydog]

I worry what rights upper class tax dodging torries would erode away if it weren't for the European courts

Look at the much-quoted maternity leave, for example. The EU gives you 3 months minimum, but UK law is 12 months. I find it hard to believe that any UK government could whittle that down to 3 months, unless they did so under cover of EU harmonisation.

I wonder what would happen to UKIP if "Leave" win?

Don't worry about UKIP for gods' sake, worry about the matter in hand & the loss of our hard-won democracy.

 

[Edwin]

Since the negotiation period after submitting a request to leave the EU is 2 years, I presume pretty much everything will be done and dusted well before the next election, which isn't until 2020. So UKIP's hypothetical role in that process will be literally zero. (They only have 1 MP so they can't influence the negotiation process one way or another.)

 

[Edwin]

Reminder: if you've not yet registered to vote, there are only 3 days left to do so!

https://www.eureferendum.gov.uk/register-to-vote/

 

[scottmccloud]

If we did indeed leave, then we could see UKIP evolve into a UK libertarian party. I know we have these types of parties already in the UK but UKIP are the closest we've got to a popular mainstream one.