Corona please read very important

[LCHappy]

People are self isolating already, the people who have it is easily 100x the given figures (which is why you'd lock down now, not based on testing), they just have less serious effects or are self isolating. No one is listening to the government after they say the 500k dead model. Now is the time to lock down, stop flights. some normality for mid summer maybe. China locked down quick, very low single digit cases daily across China and factories reopening every day, people getting their freedom back. Scotland and Wales are closing schools this week, why delay now, makes no sense. Do it now by June we'll have some sense of normality. Vaccines already on the human testing phase etc. The herd immunity strategy is out the door, I know people who are already self isolating and they do not have.

So where did the rest of the people in China suddenly get immunity from? How come they can suddenly now all go back to work? I genuinely don't understand why you think things are different now compared to when nobody had it in December 2019.

One one hand people say Chinese are going back to work and then in the next they say there is a vaccine in the pipeline. Well why are they going back to work without the vaccine? They are going back for another lock down in 6 weeks, and 6 weeks after they next lift it and so on and so on.

Do it now by June we'll have some sense of normality. Vaccines already on the human testing phase etc. The herd immunity strategy is out the door, I know people who are already self isolating and they do not have.

12-18 months for a vaccine at the earliest. You say the herd immunity strategy is out of the door, but that is just a naturally occurring vaccine after the infection. Either both are out of the door or they are both in. They are the same thing.

 

[dee]

So there we have it. All schools closed from Friday. Until further notice

 

[ian]

I'm not interested in the political mud slinging, it seems no matter the crisis, everyone will blame each other.

It is interesting how South Korea have coped, with testing for most (all?) to combat the virus by isolating the right people. Not sure if they shutdown operations too.

My family and I are now isolating ourselves for a week, just to see if we suffer any symptoms, then will do what we need to, and isolate again. Fortunately we have an allotment in desperate need of work for this year, so we'll be busy. Wouldn't isolate at all ideally, would prefer if I'm going to get it, to get it now so I'm freed up to help others, but ultimately have to consider my son, and my missus who is high risk.

 

[Siusaidh]

One advantage of early lock down is at least it allows time to make more ventilators. Obviously I have no way of knowing if it's even possible to make thousands more ventilators, but if we did a lock down for 4 weeks, we might at least provide a bit more time. It's going to be the lack of ventilators that kills many if we peak above what the NHS can look after. For that reason alone I favour lock down soon. I know it won't be the end of the virus, it may only delay it. But as we aren't ready, delay at least is good.

Personally, since the government have strongly 'advised' people not to go to pubs (and with apologies to anyone here with family who own/manage a pub), I would prefer the government to close down all pubs. Either they want people in pubs or they don't. If people are still going to pubs in London right now (as Beth Rigby claimed at the News Conference today) then I think that's selfish. 'I couldn't care less if I catch it and transmit it and extra vulnerable people die... just as long as I can have a drink.'

I think stricter measures will probably come, but personally I think we should give people and communities 4 or 5 days' notice to get ready, and then lock down.

Buy more time to equip the NHS, try to get hundreds or thousands of ventilators, testing kits, protective clothing etc. I think we need to hear what the doctors on the front-line are saying about PPE and ventilators. They are deeply concerned. I accept my opinion could be wrong. My take is people aren't as community-spirited as we think, and loads will ignore the 'advice'. If there are some ignoring the advice, make it impossible for them. Some people need to be forced to comply. It's 'take responsibility for others, or we will take responsibility from you.'

 

[KarlM]

Yep spot on post.

One advantage of early lock down is at least it allows time to make more ventilators. Obviously I have no way of knowing if it's even possible to make thousands more ventilators, but if we did a lock down for 4 weeks, we might at least provide a bit more time. It's going to be the lack of ventilators that kills many if we peak above what the NHS can look after. For that reason alone I favour lock down soon. I know it won't be the end of the virus, it may only delay it. But as we aren't ready, delay at least is good.

Personally, since the government have strongly 'advised' people not to go to pubs (and with apologies to anyone here with family who own/manage a pub), I would prefer the government to close down all pubs. Either they want people in pubs or they don't. If people are still going to pubs in London right now (as Beth Rigby claimed at the News Conference today) then I think that's selfish. 'I couldn't care less if I catch it and transmit it and extra vulnerable people die... just as long as I can have a drink.'

I think stricter measures will probably come, but personally I think we should give people and communities 4 or 5 days' notice to get ready, and then lock down.

Buy more time to equip the NHS, try to get hundreds or thousands of ventilators, testing kits, protective clothing etc. I think we need to hear what the doctors on the front-line are saying about PPE and ventilators. They are deeply concerned. I accept my opinion could be wrong. My take is people aren't as community-spirited as we think, and loads will ignore the 'advice'. If there are some ignoring the advice, make it impossible for them. Some people need to be forced to comply. It's 'take responsibility for others, or we will take responsibility from you.'

 

[anthony]

....but personally I think we should give people and communities 4 or 5 days' notice to get ready, and then lock down...

Although that seems the fairest approach, the end result will be everyone running all over the place doing all sorts of things in 'preparation', and spreading the virus over a wider area. For that reason, I suspect it'll be 24 hours notice, perhaps 48 hours at best.

 

[dee]

It is interesting how South Korea have coped, with testing for most (all?) to combat the virus by isolating the right people. Not sure if they shutdown operations too.

Korea learnt a lot from SARS and prepped for the future. You are also dealing with a compliant population who will actually do whats best for the whole (or what they are told to do anyway ) as opposed to a bunch of "man up ...its only a cold" muppets from here.

Should have listened to Bill Gates from 2015

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en

 

[dee]

The other side of all this of course is that we're in it for the long haul. This could potentially be a mass 'social distancing' for the next 12 months or so until a vaccine is found. The moment we let up then its off again and you risk overwhelming the care system. I guess theres an arguement that they'll have more ventilators etc eventually , but weve always been way behind on critical care beds per capita compared to most other countries. It's been a know issue for ages apparently.

 

[starbird]

There is a Japanese flu drug which apparently works well against the corona virus https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/18/j...navirus-treatment-in-chinese-clinical-trials/ this isn't a cure but has shown very promising signs which would benefit a majority of people who get it. It is not suitable for severe cases but for other cases it offers quicker recovery. It will be tested on a clinical scale against corona virus but is a flu treatment which makes sense given the coronavirus is genetically similar to flu viruses. If approved it could help speed up recovery and lessen the overall effects of the virus.

 

[LCHappy]

Could it be that we have blown this out of all proportion? This is a quite interesting read. There are lots of people on Facebook and Twitter who documented at the time that they were suffering from all these symptoms here in the UK in December last year, like loads and loads. Could it have been here since then but nobody tested for it?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Makes a compelling read. Basically, we know almost nothing. I'm not on either side of the fence, I don't know.

 

[newguy]

Could it be that we have blown this out of all proportion? This is a quite interesting read. There are lots of people on Facebook and Twitter who documented at the time that they were suffering from all these symptoms here in the UK in December last year, like loads and loads. Could it have been here since then but nobody tested for it?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Makes a compelling read. Basically, we know almost nothing. I'm not on either side of the fence, I don't know.

I agree that learning more over time is important (such as examining populations to see what percentage of people have actually had this already) but feel that with so many unknowns the current approach is prudent. Surely in Italy when there's about 500 people dying of this in one day alone, most of them in one city, it's an indication that this particular virus is causing serious problems?

 

[newguy]

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/18/j...navirus-treatment-in-chinese-clinical-trials/

Japanese flu drug appears ‘effective’ in coronavirus treatment in Chinese clinical trials

Not a big trial, so early days, but promising results.

 

[starbird]

It's not a big trial but it's something positive. We are constantly being bombarded with negative headlines. Yes the situation is not good, but despite this if the media tried to focus on some positive tones people would at least feel a bit better or more to the point, some hope.

This will end at some point, there will be a period where containment is the best we can do. With periodic lock downs we will slow it down and hopefully to level where we can have periods of time that are normal.

There will be a vaccine for this, likely next year but it will come. Lock downs will not likely eliminate it but they could drastically curb the amount of cases enough to make it manageable to the nhs while the vaccine is both created and produced.

 

[Siusaidh]

We are constantly being bombarded with negative headlines. Yes the situation is not good, but despite this if the media tried to focus on some positive tones people would at least feel a bit better or more to the point, some hope.

While we need to maintain vigilance and caution, I agree we need glimmers of hope. I was sent this link which - while some of it may be too optimistic - at least made me feel a bit more upbeat:

Bits of possible good news

 

[websaway]

Could the next stage be a run on the banks. Will governments be able to pay pensions and benefits. Spain and Italy were already sick economies.

 

[BREWSTERS]

There is information about how many people have had it in the past - third time of posting this but seems no-one has watched it...there is mention of a study done in Glasgow over a few years. CV is nothing new.

If everyone who has been in ICUs over the past were tested for CV, a percentage would've tested positive.

Does no-one see what's happening as massively over-reaching? It's using a tank to swat a fly. Surely it is enough to quarantine everyone who has a severe pre-existing condition, as they are the danger group. And to be realistic, those people are likely fairly much quarantined anyway. Think of the consequences of these lock downs.

 

[Siusaidh]

Thanks to these guys in Kerala for cheering me up a bit this morning

 

[BREWSTERS]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

[ian]

Could it be that we have blown this out of all proportion? This is a quite interesting read. There are lots of people on Facebook and Twitter who documented at the time that they were suffering from all these symptoms here in the UK in December last year, like loads and loads. Could it have been here since then but nobody tested for it?

Flu in December is common, but I'm hoping we experienced this in December as I rarely get sick, and I was off my feet for 3 days; my partner (with a suppressed immune system) was out of action for 7 days; our boy was ill for a day. It was so bad that I barely managed to drag myself to my sons nativity performances, and 'mum' didn't get there at all.

 

[Edwin]

This was beautiful, for anyone with small kids...