Corona please read very important

[LCHappy]

As has been said, knowing exactly how many cases anywhere has is tricky due to the different approaches to testing. However, if we take even Sweden's number as gospel they've gone from 19 cases to 6000 in a month and therefore the there is no reason to think that the amount of cases and deaths will not explode over the coming month. They'll be lumbered with making the exact same choices we are, and quite frankly I'd be incredibly surprised if they do not bring in bar and restaurant restrictions or something akin to a lockdown over the next couple of months. It's a very likely scenario to happen.

I think that is when we will know a lot more. In a month or so, if Sweden follow the same path, we will have a much better idea of which method was right or wrong. I don't really see a way of knowing for sure either way until then.

 

[newguy]

I think that is when we will know a lot more. In a month or so, if Sweden follow the same path, we will have a much better idea of which method was right or wrong. I don't really see a way of knowing for sure either way until then.

Yes that's a good point. I don't think it will be a pretty couple of months for anyone and I think it will have made significant inroads into most populations. We may well start easing up restrictions when others are tightening them, so it's a dynamic situation. At least with different approached though there is more information to go with over time as you say.

 

[BREWSTERS]

According to worldometers.info Sweden had 563 new cases yesterday and 50 deaths. Their population is 10 million, therefore surely the extrapolated deaths would be over 300? Still lower than us but nowhere near as dramatically so as the above figures suggest. Perhaps you're working it out in a different way or have different figures?

Also, we are in the midst of a lockdown in very early stages of this. We have absolutely no idea what Sweden's number will be in a couple of months time compared to ours or whether they may have brought in additional restrictions if cases rise at a worrying rate. It's new territory.

As has been said, knowing exactly how many cases anywhere has is tricky due to the different approaches to testing. However, if we take even Sweden's number as gospel they've gone from 19 cases to 6000 in a month and therefore the there is no reason to think that the amount of cases and deaths will not explode over the coming month. They'll be lumbered with making the exact same choices we are, and quite frankly I'd be incredibly surprised if they do not bring in bar and restaurant restrictions or something akin to a lockdown over the next couple of months. It's a very likely scenario to happen.

I get the figures from the Johns Hopkins Uni website - they were heavily involved with Event 201 so had a head start on tracking CV. Just a coincidence I guess...

Google Event 201 if you're not aware of it.

 

[newguy]

I get the figures from the Johns Hopkins Uni website - they were heavily involved with Event 201 so had a head start on tracking CV. Just a coincidence I guess...

Google Event 201 if you're not aware of it.

That website pretty much concurs with my statistics. 373 deaths (up by 12% since the day before). The extrapolated April 3rd Swedish death rate is surely around 300 rather than 96?

 

[BREWSTERS]

That website pretty much concurs with my statistics. 373 deaths (up by 12% since the day before). The extrapolated April 3rd Swedish death rate is surely around 300 rather than 96?

The number of total deaths in Sweden on 03 Apr 20 was 358 - today that's risen to 373

373 -358 = 15

15 / 10.36 x 66.44 = 96

Population of Sweden is 10.36m - UK is 66.44m

 

[newguy]

If you extrapolate the size of Sweden to the size of the UK, there would have been over 300 deaths, not 96. The deaths in Sweden rose by 12% in the last full day, 50 not 15.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...thousands-of-deaths-amid-laxer-virus-response

"The number of Swedish deaths rose to 373 on Saturday, up 12% from Friday. That brings the rate per million in Scandinavia’s biggest economy to 36, compared with 29 in Denmark and 9 in Norway, where much tougher lockdowns are in place."

Also the John Hopkins site uses Worldmeters.info as one of their data sources. That site, as you'd expect also lists 373 as the number (as well as the same number of cases), and states that the number of deaths on 3rd went from 308 on april 2nd to 358 on the 3rd (and currently at 373 total --> today hasn't ended yet).

Their numbers have been going up by about 40-60 a day for the past few days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

[bonusmedia]

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Great track, loved that album

 

[BREWSTERS]

If you extrapolate the size of Sweden to the size of the UK, there would have been over 300 deaths. The deaths is Sweden rose by 12% yesterday, around 45 yesterday not 15.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...thousands-of-deaths-amid-laxer-virus-response

"The number of Swedish deaths rose to 373 on Saturday, up 12% from Friday. That brings the rate per million in Scandinavia’s biggest economy to 36, compared with 29 in Denmark and 9 in Norway, where much tougher lockdowns are in place."

Bloomberg are wrong - the number on Friday after the daily update was 358. I think they must've been looking at the Friday number before the daily update, and the Saturday number after the update.

That would add up to 40-something (I've got the actual numbers going back a few days in my office).

Maybe they get their info from worldometers.

 

[newguy]

Bloomberg are wrong - the number on Friday after the daily update was 358. I think they must've been looking at the Friday number before the daily update, and the Saturday number after the update.

That would add up to 40-something (I've got the actual numbers going back a few days in my office).

I updated my post with more info:

The deaths in Sweden rose by 12% in the last full day, 50 not 15.

The John Hopkins site uses Worldmeters.info as one of their data sources. That site, as you'd expect also lists 373 as the number (as well as the same number of cases), and states that the number of deaths on 3rd went from 308 on april 2nd to 358 on the 3rd (and currently at 373 total --> today hasn't ended yet).

Their numbers have been going up by about 40-60 a day for the past few days in fact, so it's clear that's the territory they are both in now and will be going forward. Even if somehow the complete number for today ended up being 15, that snapshot as a benchmark is misleading and means little when it'll obviously be 100+ daily sometime next week. Hence why they are very likely be bring in more restrictions eventually. It's uncharted territory for all countries, no matter their approach.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I take the numbers at roughly the same time each day...4-5pm after JHU update their figures.

The daily totals don't match the info you've pointed out, despite the running total being the same.

Best to keep tracking them to see where the anomaly in the daily figures is...so we agree that the running total is 373 as of now.

 

[newguy]

Yes it looks to be.

I feel that it's best to just wait things out and see what happens.I'm not saying one approach is perfect, and one is horrible. There's a lot that we don't know because this is a new situation for countries to be dealing with. It will take time to get a full and meaningful take on all of this and from that perspective alone buying time doesn't sound like the worse strategy.

 

[LCHappy]

View attachment 2704

I did some digging into what you posted. This 5G thing is a very odd theory. You are right there are some people who believe that 5G causes CV. I'd seen some tweets about the origins of the theory and they have it completely wrong. The theory seems to have mutated quite a bit from where it came from.

The original theory is from a scientist who claims that he believes 5G is responsible for false positives in the test because it is being confused with naturally occurring exosomes. It is a plausible theory. One of the things that could trigger production of these exosomes is according to him 5G, one among many causes.

Looks like some have not listened to what he said and have instead started blaming 5G for CV rather than 5G for false CV positives.

 

[diablo]

Norway went into lockdown before it had recorded its first covid 19 death.

To date it has recorded 66 deaths.

In unrelated news, its next-door neighbour is Sweden.

 

[BREWSTERS]

@newguy - these are the daily totals for Sweden going back to last Monday are;

M. 239
T. 282
W. 308
Th. 333
F. 358
S. 373

Sky article corroborating 358 on Friday.

Todays numbers aren't out yet at time of posting.

 

[bonusmedia]

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[LCHappy]

@bonusmedia Can you let the adults have a discussion without the spam? The last 20 posts have been quite constructive without you

 

[bonusmedia]

If anyone gets an email about CoronaVirus in pork products, you can ignore it, it's just spam

 

[Murray]

Interesting thing to look at is single person households, Sweden looks in great shape to not spread it at home

Also obesity rates, which obviously in general couples with a lot of other health issues

I'd expect Nordic countries and Germany to have some of the lowest death rates

 

[Murray]

Didn't take into account over 65 which Germany has a lot of

 

[bonusmedia]

There are so many factors that it's very difficult to compare like with like, as the professionals keep saying.
Population density is a major one.
In Italy and Spain you have a lot of people living in densely clustered apartment blocks, whereas in the UK we have a much higher proportion of houses.

Anyone using Sweden to argue that lockdown is unnecessary is risking serious harms.
One person deciding to break the rules because they don't believe public health advice can cause mass casualties. It is more important than ever to counter this stuff.

Looking ahead, when we do get a vaccine, there are going to be anti-vax people shouting about it. We'll have to deal with that somehow or other, I would like to see zero tolerance.