Corona please read very important

[Edwin]

Over the last 24 hours, the coronavirus alone killed about 50% as many people in the UK as would have been expected to die of all causes on a normal April 3rd.

There is no conceivable way that it only killed those who "would have died anyway". In the words of Boris Johnson, people are “[losing] loved ones before their time”.

There is also no comparison in any way, shape or form with the regular flu we experience every year.

I hope, no matter where you stand on the specifics, that much at least should be beyond dispute by now.

Many parts of the UK will see a mini heatwave this weekend. Please stay indoors (or in your own garden). Stay safe. Stay alive - and keep others alive too. It's a team effort!

 

[diablo]

Not cherry-picked....Sweden is the only country in Europe that isn't under full lock down (I think) so that's why I'm comparing that to the UK.

Also, 'confirmed' cases also include 'presumptive positive' cases (as stated by Johns Hopkins Uni and confirmed by the CDC - links on a previous post). Hence the numbers have been going up since last week the the Gov stated they were changing the way they compile the numbers.

To me, it looks like cherry-picking because you have chosen to compare Sweden to the UK on headline figures without taking into account any other differences between the countries. If you had chosen Denmark and Sweden you couldn't be arguing the same case.

To repeatedly say UK with lockdown has more deaths than Sweden without lockdown is also misleading. The UK isn't in total lockdown and Sweden is not without restrictions (or people working from home without compulsion). Both nations have shades of lockdown.

 

[LCHappy]

Over the last 24 hours, the coronavirus alone killed about 50% as many people in the UK as would have been expected to die of all causes on a normal April 3rd.

There is no conceivable way that it only killed those who "would have died anyway". In the words of Boris Johnson, people are “[losing] loved ones before their time”.

There is also no comparison in any way, shape or form with the regular flu we experience every year.

I hope, no matter where you stand on the specifics, that much at least should be beyond dispute by now.

Many parts of the UK will see a mini heatwave this weekend. Please stay indoors (or in your own garden). Stay safe. Stay alive - and keep others alive too. It's a team effort!

I believe the still is some doubt. There are some in there who would not have died, that is true, but how many? Nobody knows.

How many extra deaths is there now compared to this time last week, this time last year? Those stats will be out in a week or so. Would you agree that if those numbers are not up, then this is not some extraordinary?

For me, if more than the normal deaths of 1900 per day are dying, then there is something going on. If not, then there isn't. Right now, there is zero data anywhere that shows the above normal number of deaths.

 

[Edwin]

If you want to kill off this thread, fine go ahead.

You have the power to do it right there at your keyboard just by throwing out more nonsense about how everything to do with this crisis is being faked, manipulated and lied about. That is pure selfishness, but you're entitled to be selfish if you want to. Nobody can stop you.

But I think (much of) this thread serves a genuinely useful purpose. And I hope you will choose to see sense and let it continue by backing off and parking all further wild allusions going forward. Take them somewhere else. But don't air them here.

The entire world economy has stopped. 10 million out of work in the USA in the last 2 weeks. 80% fewer international flights. Nearly a million more Universal Credit participants here in the UK. Everything you can think of closed, postponed or cancelled.

Now either the mainstream science approach taken by every single country (except Sweden - now never mention it again) is wrong, and everyone crashed the economy worse than during the Great Depression for nothing.

Or, you know what, there really is something to this coronavirus.

Problem is, it's a totally unequal bet.

If it turns out people overreacted, we'll know fairly soon and things can start getting back towards normalish with a LOT of new Government debt and help. Political heads will roll, but the cascade of "deaths before their time" will quickly come to a halt.

But if they didn't overreact at all you'll be on your knees thankful that people took action, and acted strongly. Because the alternative was a level of death that makes me shudder even to think about. The clampdown means that many many people may get to hug their loved ones tight in future who otherwise wouldn't have been able to.

 

[newguy]

If it turns out people overreacted, we'll know fairly soon and things can start getting back towards normalish with a LOT of new Government debt and help. Political heads will roll, but the cascade of "deaths before their time" will quickly come to a halt.

But if they didn't overreact at all you'll be on your knees thankful that people took action, and acted strongly. Because the alternative was a level of death that makes me shudder even to think about. The clampdown means that many many people may get to hug their loved ones tight in future who otherwise wouldn't have been able to.

I think the most successful reaction at times like this will inevitably look like an overreaction on account of how many lives it saves. Forming a strategy at times like this is both vital and a thankless task.

Aside from everything else, I think the lockdown brought a realisation of how serious this situation is to many people who seemed to think it was no different to the flu. Hard months ahead, but we'll get through it and there is an opportunity to learn lots of lessons along the way.

 

[Murray]

the lockdown brought a realisation of how serious this situation is to many people who seemed to think it was no different to the flu. .

I still think it's still about the level of flu, just we're seeing what it would be like in a world without flu jabs

 

[Murray]

Now either the mainstream science approach taken by every single country (except Sweden - now never mention it again) is wrong, and everyone crashed the economy worse than during the Great Depression for nothing..

I will provide the conspiracy argument

They're doing it to pass new authoritarian laws

to force vaccinations on people

to squeeze out all the smaller companies and leave only the big boys

so people become dependent on state help so they're more docile

Any independent media that questions the official line will be called dangerous and shut down and people will applaud

So they can blame physical currency for the spread and do away with it completely so money can be better tracked digitally

etc etc

Probably dozens more ones I'm not aware of that people speculate on

 

[BREWSTERS]

To me, it looks like cherry-picking because you have chosen to compare Sweden to the UK on headline figures without taking into account any other differences between the countries. If you had chosen Denmark and Sweden you couldn't be arguing the same case.

To repeatedly say UK with lockdown has more deaths than Sweden without lockdown is also misleading. The UK isn't in total lockdown and Sweden is not without restrictions (or people working from home without compulsion). Both nations have shades of lockdown.

UK because we live here and are being restricted massively.

Sweden because it is famously avoiding anywhere near full lock down. End of.

If I was cherry picking I'm sure I could've picked a more disparate pairing.

 

[bonusmedia]

If you think all this nonsense is harmless, please bear in mind that people are now competing to burn down phone masts because they believe CV is caused by 5G.

 

[BREWSTERS]

If you want to kill off this thread, fine go ahead.

You have the power to do it right there at your keyboard just by throwing out more nonsense about how everything to do with this crisis is being faked, manipulated and lied about. That is pure selfishness, but you're entitled to be selfish if you want to. Nobody can stop you.

But I think (much of) this thread serves a genuinely useful purpose. And I hope you will choose to see sense and let it continue by backing off and parking all further wild allusions going forward. Take them somewhere else. But don't air them here.

The entire world economy has stopped. 10 million out of work in the USA in the last 2 weeks. 80% fewer international flights. Nearly a million more Universal Credit participants here in the UK. Everything you can think of closed, postponed or cancelled.

View attachment 2703

Now either the mainstream science approach taken by every single country (except Sweden - now never mention it again) is wrong, and everyone crashed the economy worse than during the Great Depression for nothing.

Or, you know what, there really is something to this coronavirus.

Problem is, it's a totally unequal bet.

If it turns out people overreacted, we'll know fairly soon and things can start getting back towards normalish with a LOT of new Government debt and help. Political heads will roll, but the cascade of "deaths before their time" will quickly come to a halt.

But if they didn't overreact at all you'll be on your knees thankful that people took action, and acted strongly. Because the alternative was a level of death that makes me shudder even to think about. The clampdown means that many many people may get to hug their loved ones tight in future who otherwise wouldn't have been able to.

Just because it's what you believe, doesn't mean it's correct...you could finish off that section in red by saying 'because I'm right and you're wrong' and it wouldn't come across any more arrogant.

And those events...do you not think they were put under pressure to cancel? Do you not think that restaurants pubs and small shops etc have only shut because they have to?

Finally, Government debt, is our debt...and the millions of people that'll be put out of work, the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who've had their life's work crushed, will not be thinking the way you are.

 

[bonusmedia]

I like apples

 

[newguy]

I still think it's still about the level of flu, just we're seeing what it would be like in a world without flu jabs

I'd agree that the flu is elderly is no doubt a death sentence for many too. What's not often reported though due to the fact that they're the ones that eventually pull through, is that about a third of those in serious condition are under 45. This certainly isn't typical of the flu, Without slowing the rate of those ill at any one time many of these people wouldn't survive either.

 

[Murray]

at about a third of those in serious condition are under 45.

Where do you find the stats for hospitalisations/ages an where do you find the stats for flu to compare?

 

[BREWSTERS]

Austria: In Austria, too, „corona deaths“ are apparently defined „very liberally“, as the media report: „Do you also count as a corona death if you are infected with the virus but die of something else? Yes, say Rudi Anschober and Bernhard Benka, members of the Corona Task Force in the Ministry of Health. „There is a clear rule at present: Died with the corona virus or died from the corona virus both count for the statistics.“ No difference is made as to what the patient actually died of. In other words, a 90-year-old man who dies with a fracture of the femoral neck and becomes infected with corona in the hours prior to his death is also counted as corona death. To name but one example.“
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

 

[bonusmedia]

Nurse Aimee O'Rourke, who died fighting to save others

 

[bonusmedia]

Nurse Areema Nasreen, another NHS hero who died today

 

[newguy]

Where do you find the stats for hospitalisations/ages an where do you find the stats for flu to compare?

It's hard to find exacting comparisons for a virus that is presently working its way through the population for the first time. However:

"A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis of U.S. cases from Feb. 12 to March 16 released Wednesday shows 38 percent of those sick enough to be hospitalized were younger than 55.

Earlier this week, French health ministry official Jérome Salomon said half of the 300 to 400 coronavirus patients treated in intensive care units in Paris were younger than 65,"

A Netherlands study showed half of those in intensive care were under 50. People do not know or consider this because these are the age groups that tend to pull through, but only on account that they are able to access medical help.

The 2018-19 stats for flu hospitalisations in the United States indicate about 1.34 million hospitalisations for the over 65s, and 265,000 for those younger than that

 

[newguy]

We know how the flu acts within the population on account that it's been with us for such a long time. Taking the American results, we have about 120,000 deaths from likely 80+ million cases with an unstressed healthcare system.

The problem with covid-19 is that we have no firm understanding of how many people have already had it, other than that as a new virus nobody will have had it until very recently. We also know that it's highly contagious and that numbers of people hospitalised can increase dramatically over time to a point where it overwhelms the healthcare system. This would in turn rapidly raise the death toll. It's common for people to be on assisted breathing for a week plus. Without that option they, young and old, would die.

We have no inherent immunity to it either meaning that it will sweep through most of the population. We can 'hope' that many more people have had it than we realise, but if they have not it would seem that it could have a high death toll is left unchecked. The lockdown buys us precious time and allows us to put resources in place and draw out the number of people in need of hospital treatment at any one time. I appreciate that it's temporary though and that out of necessity that will need change over time. Though I expect it will happen incrementally.

 

[diablo]

UK because we live here and are being restricted massively.

Sweden because it is famously avoiding anywhere near full lock down. End of.

If I was cherry picking I'm sure I could've picked a more disparate pairing.

You compare the UK to Sweden because it appears to fit your worldview nicely.

That worldview might be correct, but the Denmark-Sweden comparison challenges it. What's your explanation for that?

Genuinely interested.

 

[BREWSTERS]

You compare the UK to Sweden because it appears to fit your worldview nicely.

That worldview might be correct, but the Denmark-Sweden comparison challenges it. What's your explanation for that?

Genuinely interested.

Twice I've said why I pick those two to compare...don't you try and say I pick them for any other reason than I said.

Although I like Denmark...been there many times on business and have made friends with people there. In fact where I live is twinned with Aalborg...a place I've been several times and have friends there. Despite that - Denmark is in lock down...but it doesn't effect me, or you, or probably anyone else on this forum Diablo. Does what's happening in Denmark effect you one iota? Nor me.

But what's happening in the UK is vital to me, and everyone (probably) on this forum.

Got that? Got why I use the UK as one side of the comparison? Hmm?

Now...Sweden is the closest and largest country that I know of that isn't enforcing a full lock down.

Do you know of a bigger or closer country that doesn't have a full lock down? If you do, tell us.

Don't try saying you know my motives better than me.

If you want to compare other countries, go ahead.