Corona please read very important

[bonusmedia]

Right, I'm off to talk to the lizard people. Good luck everyone, stay safe

 

[BREWSTERS]

Come on man, you're arguing it doesn't meet this criteria:
"Ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings;"

That is the governments website and conclusion on it.

They declassified it. Based on not matching those criteria. Maybe argue it with them.

Get a cup of tea and calm down.

 

[Edwin]

I think there's a lot of misinterpretation of "In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria" going on!

When you read the official page carefully, you'll see those criteria are effectively a checklist.

Someone somewhere will have scored the coronavirus against the published criteria, and the score will have totted up such that it doesn't qualify as an HCID.

"Once an HCID has been confirmed by appropriate laboratory testing, cases in England should be transferred rapidly to a designated HCID Treatment Centre."

This is vitally important: HCID can only be treated in specialist hospitals (because they're so incredibly dangerous)

That means, had coronavirus retained its HCID designation, management of the pandemic's spread would have quickly become literally impossible. Patients would have to have been transported from all over the UK to the handful of specialist HCID units, which would have filled to capacity very, very soon. And then what?

Now, in its (paraphrased) "it's not an HCID but it's still dangerous so it needs XYZ precautions" status, coronavirus can be tackled all over everywhere with the full might of the NHS. Hurrah! And God speed to them.

 

[diablo]

That means, had coronavirus retained its HCID designation, management of the pandemic's spread would have quickly become literally impossible. Patients would have to have been transported from all over the UK to the handful of specialist HCID units, which would have filled to capacity very, very soon. And then what?

Now, in its (paraphrased) "it's not an HCID but it's still dangerous so it needs XYZ precautions" status, coronavirus can be tackled all over everywhere with the full might of the NHS. Hurrah! And God speed to them.

Not so sure about Hurrah! That is actually very worrying. It either is an HCID or not. The state fiddling checklists and classifying it as not doesn't change that.

Not having to meet usual strict healthcare standards of care is nothing to celebrate - for patients or those treating them. For example, it allows the state to get away with lower PPE standards while claiming to be sending "millions of items of PPE".

 

[BREWSTERS]

Removed.

 

[LCHappy]

Check out these figures, gives more weight to the claims that this has been here since late last year and nobody noticed.

 

[Murray]

https://www.change.org/p/uk-parliament-reverse-the-dangerous-coronavirus-bill-hc-bill-122-rushed-through-parliament-this-week

Quite scary powers government currently has if accurate

 

[BREWSTERS]

It is - the document is about 340 pages if I remember rightly. I think I linked to it a few days ago. Very totalitarian.

 

[newguy]

Any encroachment on civil liberties is concerning, but in exceptional circumstances I can see why they would be brought in. The danger would be that such measures are extended beyond the issue at hand, whether in purpose or timescale. If they are explicitly tied to issuing related to the virus though, I can understand to an extent.

There seems to be a push here to say that a pandemic isn't even happening though, or is no or little different from events of the past. It's very clearly something new and something we should all be worried about, more much so than a typical flu, which can be bad enough as it is. Especially (but not exclusively) for the vulnerable and the elderly it is to be taken very seriously if you care about staying healthy, or in fact alive.

 

[diablo]

The total death toll now stands at 3,605, as of 17:00 BST on 2 April.

More people have now died with coronavirus in the UK than China, where the official death toll is currently 3,326, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

 

[newguy]

The total death toll now stands at 3,605, as of 17:00 BST on 2 April.

More people have now died with coronavirus in the UK than China, where the official death toll is currently 3,326, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

A depressing figure. At least the number of new infections appears to be stabilising though, and hopefully soon decreasing due to the measures brought in.

 

[Murray]

More people have now died with coronavirus in the UK than China, where the official death toll is currently 3,326, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

Spain and Italy have had 800+ people dying a day and China say on their worst day they had 150

Sadly my guess would be it's more like 33,260 deaths in China than 3,326

 

[newguy]

Spain and Italy have had 800+ people dying a day and China say on their worst day they had 150

Sadly my guess would be it's more like 33,260 deaths in China than 3,326

I think you're probably right. I bet the reality is drastically different from the PR campaign. I expect that they will have problems in locations other than Wuhan too. Whether we ever hear about them though is anyone's guess!

 

[LCHappy]

Spain and Italy have had 800+ people dying a day and China say on their worst day they had 150

Sadly my guess would be it's more like 33,260 deaths in China than 3,326

I'm on the fence on this one. I can see the conditions where their data does add up. I can also see them covering it up.

I'm just unsure still

 

[BREWSTERS]

Todays figures ( Sweden's extrapolated to match the UK population)

UK - 38659 cases - 684 deaths
Sweden - 40114 cases - 165 deaths

Sweden is not in lock down.

 

[diablo]

Todays figures ( Sweden's extrapolated to match the UK population)

UK - 38659 cases - 684 deaths
Sweden - 40114 cases - 165 deaths

Sweden is not in lock down.

Maybe a better comparison would be between Sweden and its neighbour, Denmark, which is in lockdown?

Denmark (6m population) 139 deaths
Sweden (10m population) 333 deaths

https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/sygdomsudbrud/coronavirus

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

[BREWSTERS]

Maybe a better comparison would be between Sweden and its neighbour, Denmark, which is in lockdown?

Denmark (6m population) 139 deaths
Sweden (10m population) 333 deaths

https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/sygdomsudbrud/coronavirus

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

If you extrapolate the Denmark figure to equal Sweden's population (and these are total deaths, not daily as I was referencing above)

Denmark - 7124 cases - 257 deaths

And the same to equal UK population;

Denmark - 45504 cases - 1638 deaths - in lock down

Sweden - 38720 cases - 2121 deaths

UK - 38659 cases - 3605 deaths - in lock down

 

[diablo]

If you extrapolate the Denmark figure to equal Sweden's population (and these are total deaths, not daily as I was referencing above)

Denmark - 7124 cases - 257 deaths

And the same to equal UK population;

Denmark - 45504 cases - 1638 deaths - in lock down

Sweden - 38720 cases - 2121 deaths

UK - 38659 cases - 3605 deaths - in lock down

We both know that number of confirmed cases is a product of testing so they are a less accurate indicator than deaths.

And as I pointed out, Sweden without lockdown has more deaths than Denmark with lockdown.

I'm not in a position to know which will turn out to be definitively best - lockdown or Swedish-style "not in lockdown". My gut feeling though is that cherry-picking stats to support opinion doesn't get us any closer to that answer.

 

[newguy]

What

We both know that number of confirmed cases is a product of testing so they are a less accurate indicator than deaths.

And as I pointed out, Sweden without lockdown has more deaths than Denmark with lockdown.

I'm not in a position to know which will turn out to be definitively best - lockdown or Swedish-style "not in lockdown". My gut feeling though is that cherry-picking stats to support opinion doesn't get us any closer to that answer.

This. It's understandable that countries have differing approaches, but this is a new situation where buying time can be very valuable. As such, the lockdown is a prudent move out of the options available. Also, it's fairly likely that Sweden will eventually change tack and bring it more restrictions. Covid-19 is very contagious and the numbers will start ramping up making a change of policy likely, at least in cities.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Not cherry-picked....Sweden is the only country in Europe that isn't under full lock down (I think) so that's why I'm comparing that to the UK.

Also, 'confirmed' cases also include 'presumptive positive' cases (as stated by Johns Hopkins Uni and confirmed by the CDC - links on a previous post). Hence the numbers have been going up since last week the the Gov stated they were changing the way they compile the numbers.