Corona please read very important

[anthony]

...If not at a certain point does the collapse of society outweigh the overwhelming of the NHS in terms of a crisis and would the NHS even be able to run properly in such conditions

That's certainly one of those 64k dollar questions for sure, and it's alarming to think that we could so easily get to a point where the virus wins, and we end up sitting back and watching as a significant majority of maybe 500k people are Darwin'd.

 

[keys]

When people make a sacrifice, they need to feel that it is with good reason and benefit. Isolation is a big ask, even for short time. When the duration is uncertain, and income is reduced or removed, the situation becomes tense. Italians have the added pain of a considerable daily death rate attributed to CV, and extensive media coverage.

The only measure of benefit are words of encouragement from politicians, advisers and medics. It is a grim state of affairs, with other countries set to follow the same path. The only collective defence currently available is isolation, however tough it seems.

 

[Murray]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Reading this, written by "John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologis"

"But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind"

That does go with what Brewsters has been saying

Basically the article says it's very typical to normal flu

 

[newguy]

But I

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Reading this, written by "John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologis"

"But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind"

That does go with what Brewsters has been saying

Basically the article says it's very typical to normal flu

I think how deaths are recorded is a valid point, but at the same time, the numbers we're seeing in Spain and Italy are surely rather unusual. As in, isn't it very unlikely that tens of thousands of people dying all happen to have a virus that's been going around for a couple of months? I'm inclined to believe that it's a fair bit worse than the flu, but possibly also that it's not as bad as it couldn't been (though too early to say though really). Due to how interconnected everything is now, if this virus had been 10 times worse than covid-19, it doesn't seem like we'd have been any better at getting it under control.So we should perhaps be thankful for that.

 

[anthony]

...the numbers we're seeing in Spain and Italy are surely rather unusual....

The numbers in Spain seem to be unfairly skewed to the old now anyway:

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[keys]

how deaths are recorded is a valid point

Limit test kits to 2000 per day, force doctors to refuse even assessment for people presenting with any fever or cough. That would improve the numbers considerably. Shocking, but a plausible explanation for miraculous recovery claimed by CCP.

 

[newguy]

Limit test kits to 2000 per day, force doctors to refuse even assessment for people presenting with any fever or cough. That would improve the numbers considerably. Shocking, but a plausible explanation for miraculous recovery claimed by CCP.

I must admit, that despite their clampdown, I take the numbers of of China with a pinch of salt.

I'm not convinced that there's any way out the current situation that doesn't this being a difficult 2020. I guess the plus side is that hopefully we will start turning a corner after this and maybe the next wave.

 

[Murray]

I must admit, that despite their clampdown, I take the numbers of of China with a pinch of salt.

They're saying only 150 people died on their worst day, probably more like 1500

 

[newguy]

They're saying only 150 people died on their worst day, probably more like 1500

Yes, I think you're probably right. They certainly appearing to be ordering a lot of urns https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipm...questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/

 

[BREWSTERS]

Want to see what's happening (or not) in Germany?

Be quick as the original was taken down by YT within hours.

 

[JMI]

On close examination of the doctors coats they look fake, the kind of thing I'd expect to buy from a joke shop for new years eve.. just saying..

 

[LCHappy]

Be quick as the original was taken down by YT within hours.

As you predicted it's gone. If the authorities are asking people to stay home, under a form of house arrest. They have the right to see contradicting evidence and make up their own minds.

 

[BREWSTERS]

As you predicted it's gone. If the authorities are asking people to stay home, under a form of house arrest. They have the right to see contradicting evidence and make up their own minds.

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Someone else has copied and put it up. Again...I don't expect it to be up for long.

Also - while everyone is doing their 'research'...can anyone say please what test exists that differentiates covid-19 from any other run-of-the-mill corona viruses?

Italy has asked for the EU for money because of the virus. I expect Spain will too very soon. Suprised Greece hasn't declared similar figures to those two.

 

[AssetDomains]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Reading this, written by "John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologis"

"But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind"

That does go with what Brewsters has been saying

Basically the article says it's very typical to normal flu

As you predicted it's gone. If the authorities are asking people to stay home, under a form of house arrest. They have the right to see contradicting evidence and make up their own minds.

It is interesting to here other perspectives but if these pursued people not to adhere to the course of action we now have to undertake they are very dangerous on platforms like YouTube were anyone can just say anything without any credentials as much as it goes against what I believe they should be taken down until verified.
As for professor Lee maybe when we can test everyone we will see a massive shift down in the fatality rate something similar to flu it doesn't mean we can treat this just like flu. What was the famous saying Lies, damned lies, and statistics
I refer you back to my previous post and what has actually happened in Italy

Where average flu deaths pair year are 17'000 higher than the UK because of there more elderly population.
In the last 6 weeks over 9000 (now 10k) Have died of covid-19 in Italy roughly 6 months flu in six weeks. but in reality as the numbers are climbing exponentially a huge proportion of theses deaths over 50% have happened in the last week. So one quarter of the Annual Flu deaths recorded in week hope these numbers ARE clear and make you realise the scale of what is happening.
I'm sure you are going to well how many would have died of flu anyway just in case lets do the numbers 17'000 dived by 12 is roughly 1400 a month. lets be reasonable and say we know flu is seasonal and more deaths occur in the winter even if you double 1400 to 2800 its clear to see 9000 is a much bigger number and lets just reiterate over 4000 of the covid-19 deaths occurred in the last 7 days (Actualy now 5K that's how fast this is moving)

This is also currently being repeated in Spain and New York so lets forget the statistics for a minute and use another famous saying a picture paints a thousand words look at what Covid is doing around the world flu kills tens of thousands every year but it has never done this in a century.
Italy

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Spain

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New York

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The logic behind Professor Lee numbers are well all these old or sick people would have died in the next X amount of years anyway so its not that much of a big deal if they all die in the next 2 or 3 months.
I'm not sure I want live in a society willing to right off half a million in a few months because our politicians were to incompetent to follow the test test test mantra put forward my the WHO now being employed by the Germans

 

[starbird]

Very few tests can actually distinguish the different corona viruses and they take too long. Indeed some videos are reporting we all have corona viruses (harmless amounts) that can be detected in the current tests, not necessarily covid-19 but it will show as a corona virus. It's important to note that the flu can also kill healthy people

Sweden has taken a very different approach, everything is basically open and people can go about there business as long as they use social distancing. Of course it can change very quickly but people respect their government over there and many already work from home (something we will definitely see happen here after this passes).

On the bbc site here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52081389 look at the cases, they are notably dropping. We will see a rise in cases simply due to increased testing but they are dropping already. It does show most people were practicing social distancing if you look at when we were asked to do it. Our demographic is very different from Italy and Spain and it could be something like that which means the measures are more effective here. No question the 3 week initial lock down will be extended for an additional 3 weeks but if the trend continues downward it would have a huge impact on slowing this thing right down.

After the lock down ends (some time in May most likely) social distancing will still be required, certain businesses will slowly be allowed to re-open.

I do think mandatory quarantine is a must for all overseas visitors, as like China, we'll likely see more imported cases than community spread at a certain point. So we can replicate China's approach.

 

[Murray]

I'm sure you are going to well how many would have died of flu anyway just in case

The best way to know for sure it to look at historically how many people die per month and then compare the numbers and see if corona spikes it

I don't know where you would get those stats though

But, even if corona isn't causing many more deaths per month, if it's causing longer drawn out illness that require hospital care and equipment i'ts obviously going to put a lot more strain on health systems than a flash illness, heart attack etc

I will say the effect of a long lockdown might have some interesting and troubling side effect

• In 2018, there was a total of 160,597 casualties of all severities in road traffic crashes
• In 2018, of the 1,784 road deaths

I wonder if we're in lockdown/restricted for a long time then road deaths will be significantly down

Whilst that's good, I've read road deaths of healthy people are vital for organs to transplant into those in need, so depends what side of the fence you're on with that

I wonder how hospitals stopping cancer treatments will effect those poor patients in the meantime

Such big decisions to make and I'm glad I don't have to make them

 

[bonusmedia]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/nyregion/alex-jones-coronavirus-cure.html
Alex Jones found the cure and the bloody New World Order have stopped him selling it. Typical NWO, eh?
Although to be fair his legal defence over the Sandy Hook lies that caused so much suffering was that his show was entertainment and never intended to be factual. Not sure if he explained that to his followers?

I'm not saying anyone in this thread is a covert Russian agent trying to destabilise the country, I'm just implying it by trying to discredit anything that says otherwise, folks just need do their own 'research', any old website will do if they agree with me. I'm not a performing monkey so don't ask me to provide evidence, instead I'll just demand someone else provides proof it's not true. No? Didn't think so. Wake up, sheeple.

/s

Seriously, the conspiracy theories might be interesting to think about but right now it only takes one idiot to decide it's all bullshit and ignore public health advice for potentially a lot of folks to end up dead. So stop spreading them.

BTW 'They don't want you to know!' is exactly the same psychological trick as all those spam ads - 'mum finds weird trick - doctors hate her!' etc. It appeals to people who feel powerless, it's very tempting to be in on a secret. Those ads are still running because they are very effective at scamming folks with limited critical thinking skills. As is Alex Jones.

 

[Murray]

Seriously, the conspiracy theories might be interesting to think about but right now it only takes one idiot to decide it's all bullshit and ignore public health advice for potentially a lot of folks to end up dead. So stop spreading them.

I understand what you mean and agree with it to an extent, but who is it up to to decide what's a conspiracy theory and what's not

I think we should all be following government guidelines, but it's ok to question them, look at stats, look what other countries are doing, speculate on what's best

As long as you aren't calling for action saying "this is all bulls***! go out and riot and take the streets back!" then it's whatever

Personally I think because I'm optimistic about how this will all end I'm leaning towards the "it's not quite as bad as first feared" type news, but time will tell

 

[LCHappy]

It is interesting to here other perspectives but if these pursued people not to adhere to the course of action we now have to undertake they are very dangerous on platforms like YouTube were anyone can just say anything without any credentials as much as it goes against what I believe they should be taken down until verified.

Is the Alex Jones website still open? Are they still playing video's? All Youtube is doing is sending people to his site to see them. Then when they get there, these videos don't have a comments section below with others pointing out why these clips are wrong. It just seems that if people don't factually tackle these clips, people will put 2 and 2 together and come up with a wrong answer.

I wasn't going to watch that clip until @BREWSTERS said that it had been deleted once already, made it sound interesting.

Most people are open minded and are capable of making good decisions based on both sides of the argument. If anyone thinks that they aren't, this virus is the least you should be worrying about.

 

[AssetDomains]

The best way to know for sure it to look at historically how many people die per month and then compare the numbers and see if corona spikes it

I don't know where you would get those stats though

Google scholar will be of help with scientific figures I posted historic figures from Italy taken from a peer reviewed journal not some conspiracy nut on YouTube
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext
Again in short in just over 6 weeks Covid has killed 10'000 now more than two thirds of what you would expect from flu in 52 weeks.

I wonder how hospitals stopping cancer treatments will effect those poor patients in the meantime

The whole point of the lockdown is to stop hospitals getting overwhelmed and letting essential stuff carry on Its going to take a few weeks to see if the strategy is working and then maybe some of these pauses will be relaxed the problem is the patients are taking a huge risk coming out of quarantine whilst this thing is floating around unchecked

I will say the effect of a long lockdown might have some interesting and troubling side effects

It definitely will maybe another decade of austerity being likely which may kill more than corona.
Remember it didn't have to be this way this way the government royally screwed up.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-will-increase-death-toll-says-leading-doctor
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19

We could have took the Korean approach huge testing and isolation early on instead Boris told us to wash are hands and sing happy birthday.
We didn't head the warnings and now the genie is out of the bottle so we either write of half a million sick an elderly or suck it up
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