Corona please read very important

[AssetDomains]

Does anyone have any evidence of a pandemic, or even the start of one in this country?

Anyone know any health professionals who are experiencing the sort of things that are being put forward out of Spain and Italy?

Genuine requests.

I am a healthcare professional today my trust just cancelled all outpatient appointments over the last two weeks it has been completely reconfiguring and increasing capacity in ITU. it now has double what it had a month ago and has contingency plans to double this again using theatre vents if needed. I can tell you it hasn't just done this for fun. Its in response to pending healthcare emergency unlike anything we have seen for a century on this planet.
As for me as I said in my last few shift I've was called to X-ray more patients in or approaching respiratory arrest than I have ever seen during the previous 18 months so something is definitely different.
PS a pandemic by definition effects areas much larger than single countries as for evidence watch the videos from China, Italy, Spain and New York all the evidence you ever need is there 4 countries 3 continents or is that all just fake news.

Response doesn't prove cause.

I could build a cattle shed...doesn't prove I've got any cows. Lets see how that hospital fills up over the weeks shall we? And chat again then. Let's see if they get any more than the empty ones in Germany where their media said they had 1000 patients.

The whole point of this social isolating/lockdown is so that we don't get to a point that hospitals fill up get overwhelmed I hope the nightingale stays empty and my hospitals extra ITU beds don't get filled that's a massive win for society.
As for Germany and empty hospitals. They prepared very well they followed WHO recommendations ramped up testing and quarantined those effected this has stopped them getting in the situation of Italy or Spain or new York.
If Boris trump and others had the foresight of Merkle we wouldn't be looking at the months of lockdown we now are we would be like South Korea largely going about normal business but taking measures to stop the virus running rampant that are a lot less damaging to the economy and are civil liberties.

As for one world governments If your one world government is run by the South Koreans bring it on is what I say.
Maybe we need a one world government to put an end to war indifference to climate change etc. As long as the one world government is democratic what is the big deal anyway.

 

[bonusmedia]

Last week the authorities said they would set up local community hubs to deliver supplies to the most vulnerable who are locked down at home for 12 weeks. Wondering how that's progressing, can't find much info.

Has anyone joined any volunteer groups or the NHS volunteer scheme?
If so have you started yet?

 

[AssetDomains]

As much as I hate YouTube for information interesting video when we get round to looking how different this could have been and where blame needs to lie.

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[Edwin]

Last week the authorities said they would set up local community hubs to deliver supplies to the most vulnerable who are locked down at home for 12 weeks. Wondering how that's progressing, can't find much info.

Here you go. 2,000 parcels delivered so far, and a hoped-for 50,000 by the end of this week. Doesn't sound like much compared to the 1.5 million people affected. Let's hope all the others have obliging family, friends and neighbours!
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-29...rs-of-people-being-shielded-from-coronavirus/

 

[BREWSTERS]

I am a healthcare professional today my trust just cancelled all outpatient appointments over the last two weeks it has been completely reconfiguring and increasing capacity in ITU. it now has double what it had a month ago and has contingency plans to double this again using theatre vents if needed. I can tell you it hasn't just done this for fun. Its in response to pending healthcare emergency unlike anything we have seen for a century on this planet.
As for me as I said in my last few shift I've was called to X-ray more patients in or approaching respiratory arrest than I have ever seen during the previous 18 months so something is definitely different.
PS a pandemic by definition effects areas much larger than single countries as for evidence watch the videos from China, Italy, Spain and New York all the evidence you ever need is there 4 countries 3 continents or is that all just fake news.

My partner is a Sister over an out patients dept. That was closed down about 10 days ago...they've turned it into temporary sleeping quarters for staff, for 'when' this takes off. All clinics are cancelled, onchology dept closed, etc. Her hospital is the designated one for CV (out of 3 large general hospitals in that region). Staff are contacting her at all hours worried about working etc. At the moment they have fewer people with respiratory issues than is normal across the three sites. Is your hospital a designated one? Hence you're getting more respiratory patients to your site? She describes it as 'the calm before the storm' due to the orders that have come down from above. They're all terrified. But she says the place is eerily quiet.

I know these things aren't done for fun. Those orders were based on worse-case-scenario numbers from computer modelling from Imperial College which predicted 500k potential deaths. They've since downgraded that to 20k...and most recently 'up to 7k'. A couple of things about this; 1. Why has the UK and US governments taken the word of one computer modeller (if you sell a house you get 3 estate agents to give you prices right? You don't accept what the first one says)? 2. Why are they talking of even harsher measures despite their so-trusted computer modeller downgrading the possible severity by 98.6%

The whole point of this social isolating/lockdown is so that we don't get to a point that hospitals fill up get overwhelmed I hope the nightingale stays empty and my hospitals extra ITU beds don't get filled that's a massive win for society.
As for Germany and empty hospitals. They prepared very well they followed WHO recommendations ramped up testing and quarantined those effected this has stopped them getting in the situation of Italy or Spain or new York.
If Boris trump and others had the foresight of Merkle we wouldn't be looking at the months of lockdown we now are we would be like South Korea largely going about normal business but taking measures to stop the virus running rampant that are a lot less damaging to the economy and are civil liberties.

As for one world governments If your one world government is run by the South Koreans bring it on is what I say.
Maybe we need a one world government to put an end to war indifference to climate change etc. As long as the one world government is democratic what is the big deal anyway.

The point with Germany, is that their media were hyping the numbers, saying 1000 in ICU in Berlin...when there patently wasn't. And hospital staff say they can't understand the media reports. Why are the media pushing a lie...wouldn't it be better for them to say how fantastic the German system is, and this is how they have contained it?

(NO THEORIES IN THE ABOVE)

 

[diablo]

The point with Germany, is that their media were hyping the numbers, saying 1000 in ICU in Berlin...when there patently wasn't. And hospital staff say they can't understand the media reports. Why are the media pushing a lie...wouldn't it be better for them to say how fantastic the German system is, and this is how they have contained it?

(NO THEORIES IN THE ABOVE)

Figures for Berlin are published daily. On Saturday, for example, there were 2337 confirmed cases. Of those, 64 occupied ICU beds.

 

[bonusmedia]

Sigh...

The 500,000 number was the predicted outcome of doing nothing ('herd immunity').
The 20,000 number was the predicted outcome with the drastic counter-measures.

Of course there are different models, of course they don't all agree, there is no correct answer, there are only the best predictions we can make. They are not getting a quote from an estate agent. It is not just one bloke on his laptop pulling numbers out of the air. Imperial College is among the most respected institutions in the world at doing this stuff.

You have not provided any credible evidence that the media are 'pushing a lie'. You've got it wrong. I appreciate you are not going to recognise that. I think we're all really tired of correcting your dodgy assumptions now. Stop.

 

[Murray]

You have not provided any credible evidence that the media are 'pushing a lie'. You've got it wrong. I appreciate you are not going to recognise that. I think we're all really tired of correcting your dodgy assumptions now. Stop.

I do think the media, as with everything, are more likely to go with sensational headlines because that gets more clicks

Sensational in this case is, the scarier the better

But then you can argue it's good to be scary because fear works, will help keep people inside and that's what we probably need to be doing at the moment

 

[bonusmedia]

Obviously it depends on the media source.
So for example:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...ing-death-rate-boris-johnson-peter-drobac-bbc
Here is the Express blatantly lying in suggesting 500k was a best case scenario, when at the time it was the worst case scenario.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-negotiator-Downing-Streets-Patient-Zero.html
Here is the Mail manipulating peoples' xenophobia to blame a foreigner, playing on hate for the EU, suggesting Barnier deliberately infected Boris as revenge for Brexit. It's pitiful stuff.
When a tabloid runs a story with a question like that in the headline, the answer is always no. If they had the slightest whiff of evidence, they'd run it. It's extremely manipulative, our tabloid press has blood on its hands.

 

[diablo]

A week or so ago The Daly Mail was claiming looting was beginning in the UK....

 

[diablo]

Interesting intervention in the debate by Lord Sumpton.

'Is this serious enough to warrant...depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all?'

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.c...ainst-hysteria-driven-government-policy-.html

 

[bonusmedia]

Interesting intervention in the debate by Lord Sumpton.

'Is this serious enough to warrant...depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all?'

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.c...ainst-hysteria-driven-government-policy-.html

This thinking assumes that there actually is an option to carry on as normal. How would that work? The NHS hits capacity, just stops treating people and leaves them to die at home, and we all stay at work while hundreds of thousands of our loved ones' bodies mount up? Is that supposed to be less stressful/depressing than staying at home for a while?

It's a very bizarre take on human nature.

The first duty of the state is to protect the lives of citizens.

 

[diablo]

This thinking assumes that there actually is an option to carry on as normal.

Nowhere in that piece does Hanson advocate carrying on as normal. I think you're missing the point he is making.

 

[bonusmedia]

Nowhere in that piece does Hanson advocate carrying on as normal. I think you're missing the point he is making.

Ok, that's fair. He doesn't argue for carrying on as normal.

"But the real question is : Is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period..."

He is arguing that the the threat is probably overblown, the reaction is hysterical, and lockdown and isolation may have bad outcomes that could outweigh the benefit of saving lives, especially in terms of legal precedents, policing etc. Is that a fair summary?

So if not 'normal', presumably he would want something in between, where we try to protect the most vulnerable but we don't have widespread lockdowns, distancing etc? I think that was essentially the government's initial position, didn't number 10 say Italy was taking populist measures and 'they are who not to follow'.

There may be some hysteria, but if anything the bigger problem over the last 2 weeks has not been trying to calm a hysterical public, it's been trying to get everyone to take it seriously. In my view.

So I think I'd ask him to explain why he distrusts the scientific advice, and how he thinks we ought to handle it in a way that avoids panic and hysteria etc. When the PM told people a lot of our loved ones are going to die, I don't think that was hysterical, I think it was preparing people for the reality as we best understand it.

I think he makes a very fair point about government scrutiny.

I completely disagree with the idea that we should leave it up to the public to analyse the science and 'draw common sense conclusions'. Many of the public do not have the ability to analyse the science, lots of aspects are counter-intuitive (such as exponential growth) and there is no relevant experience to draw on in living memory - there isn't any 'common sense'. We need experts.

It's also a bit strange to first argue that the public is suffering from infectious hysteria and then that we should be letting the public decide for themselves.

 

[diablo]

I don't disagree with much of what you say.

For me, Hanson is making a wider point about the law and government scrutiny. I don't think he so much distrusts the scientific advice (which is advice, based on opinion) than he distrusts the state and its wider motives.

The first duty of the state has never been to protect its citizens. The first duty of the state is to protect the state. A cursory glance of history books or a stroll around a war cemetery tell us that much.

I'm not comparing flu to covid19, but flu kills thousands every winter. From my understanding of what we're currently being told today, less people would die from flu if the same social distancing / quarantine conditions being imposed now were applied every flu season.

Since they are not, are we (or the state) saying that some avoidable levels of death are acceptable?

Or that some citizens are expendable so that the majority of us can continue living our lives?

Or that as long as the NHS can cope, roll on up?

The one thing I'm certain about is that the world we live in will be a different one after covid19 than it was before. I think Hanson is flagging some of those concerns.

 

[bonusmedia]

That makes sense. I haven't given enough thought to how this changes the role of the state.
The situation in Hungary is scary - though it wasn't much better before.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52095500

He talks about a police state, and police overstepping their bounds - I agree that's pretty ominous.
It's right to call it out but surely we have to be a bit forgiving of isolated mistakes, given there are no established procedures yet. There are probably going to be lots of mistakes all over the place while we work this all out.

I'm not a fan of this government but I've noticed wanting to trust the authorities more recently.
That may be about wanting strong leadership in a crisis, or maybe some Stockholm syndrome.
It might even be a bit like the conspiracy theories - it's more comforting to think there are competent people in charge of it all than face the chaos of reality.

I do trust the motives of the CMO, the CSA etc - even if they make mistakes - so it could be that I feel a bit safer while they've got the government's ear.

Obviously no-one actually trusts Boris, but he doesn't strike me as a totalitarian dictator - too much like hard work

 

[LCHappy]

Anyone else find it odd that each night they drag out the same useless journalists to ask the same stupid questions of whoever is in Downing Street. How long? are we there yet? can I go out for easter eggs? ya ya ya.

Would anyone disagree with changing these for scientists? Not in a confrontational way but in a learned way so that we could all be smarter.

Who wouldn't come out of that 30 minutes more intelligent than before they went in?

 

[Edwin]

Important context...

In March 2019, 43,815 people died in England and Wales. That's an average of 1,413 deaths per day. (Let's assume the 2020 figures would be similar, were it not for COVID-19, for the sake of making some comparison.)

Now, 374 people died of coronavirus in England and Wales over the last 24H.

374 is 26.4% of 1,413.

It's clear coronavirus is a huge, huge death factor now. In the last 24H, it either led to over a quarter of all deaths and/or a quarter more deaths, depending on how additive it is.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...guresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

 

[Edwin]

Anyone else find it odd that each night they drag out the same useless journalists to ask the same stupid questions of whoever is in Downing Street. How long? are we there yet? can I go out for easter eggs? ya ya ya.

Would anyone disagree with changing these for scientists? Not in a confrontational way but in a learned way so that we could all be smarter.

Who wouldn't come out of that 30 minutes more intelligent than before they went in?

I would agree, except for one thing. When journalists do manage to conjure up specific, prying questions - and it does happen, even though at times I despair just as much as you - they're met with deflection every single time. There's never a straight, direct answer.

So unfortunately all that would likely happen is you'd have a press conference in which the quality of the questions rose but the quality of the answers stayed at the same very low level.

 

[newguy]

Disheartening numbers again from Italy. 2,107 new infections (+837 deaths) compared with Monday's figure of 1,648. And of course an increase in our numbers too. There's so much we still don't know about how this will pan out. The toll it could potentially take as it works its way through the population doesn't bear thinking about.

It seems to me, that as soon as lock down is lifted, the numbers will quickly escalate again. I get the logic about smoothing the curve, and making sure we're prepared, but it does feel like the worst is yet to come. It's going to be hard to protect the elderly and vulnerable as this ramps up again. I notice that the Chinese suggested that in Italy they should quarantining known cases, rather than tell everyone to stay in their home. Logic being that the spread within homes is keeping the numbers up (especially with multiple generations living within the same household). There's a certain logic to that, but I'm not sure that it's workable.

This is a stark example of how contagious covid-19 appears to be:
https://sfist.com/2020/03/30/super-...avirus-is-airborne-without-coughs-or-sneezes/