Corona please read very important

[Hay]

Those that wouldn't listen and was too arrogant to listen or thought they was immune to everything... well done, you just helped put the country into Lock down... Bravo.

 

[dee]

Those that wouldn't listen and was too arrogant to listen or thought they was immune to everything... well done, you just helped put the country into Lock down... Bravo.

Realistically it was always gonna happen.Sure they would have done it sooner but had to make it look like it was needed or peoplewould have screamed about police state

 

[Murray]

Well at least now we can ride it out and get it out of the way

Hopefully things look better in 3 weeks

 

[Edwin]

Here are the key restrictions that will apply from tomorrow...

Note the last bullet - don't know if anyone reading this is on holiday or was still somehow hoping for a get-away, but if it's in the next few weeks that now looks impossible.

There's a lot more detail, including on the new limits on public gathering, in the full document...
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...dance-on-staying-at-home-and-away-from-others

Worth noting that Boris Johnson emphasized the measures will be enforced by the police if need be, through fines and other tactics.

 

[Hay]

Note the last bullet - don't know if anyone reading this is on holiday or was still somehow hoping for a get-away, but if it's in the next few weeks that now looks impossible.

Ive seen no end of caravanners heading up the motorways over the past 48 hours, one would assume they are somewhat regretting their decision to flee.

 

[Edwin]

Ive seen no end of caravanners heading up the motorways over the past 48 hours, one would assume they are somewhat regretting their decision to flee.

IF it gets enforced, yes. There were already suggestions in the special news bulletin directly after Boris Johnson's address to the nation that the police would take a pretty hands-off, softly softly approach. Whether that's the case or not remains to be seen, but it rather undermined the message delivered less than 10 minutes earlier by BJ.

 

[Edwin]

First hiccup: Mike Ashley has written a very punchy email to all staff this evening, telling them of his intention to keep his sports goods stores open so that he can supply "essential" equipment for people to stay fit.

It will be fascinating to see if the Tories let him get away with it, or if we have a Tim Martin type situation where he gets squashed a few hours later.

 

[Murray]

that the police would take a pretty hands-off, softly softly approach..

So not like in Florida

https://reddit.com/r/Whatcouldgowrong/comments/fnn5to/wcgw_hanging_out_during_pandemic/

 

[Siusaidh]

Mike Ashley has no relevance to the country in the next few months. Buying a new pair of Nike trainers is NOT an essential service, and for him to say so is an insult to all the really essential workers like doctors and nurses.

However, this underlines the need for more precision from the government.

They say groups of more than 2 are to be dispersed, but that could prove to be a huge policing challenge, given the limits of police staffing, and also the fact that 20-30% of police may themselves be off sick, or isolated because a family member is sick, at any one time around the height of the crisis.

People travelling: how will police know if they're legit or not, unless they set up road blocks? And how will they know if people are telling the truth about essential travel, if there is no permit system or documentation?

And how will people on the Underground be stopped, unless it becomes pass-based with checks at entry and exit points?

So there's quite a lot of vagueness about implementation and enforcement, and Mike Ashley's (in my opinion disgusting) attempt to (in my opinion) dodge the shut down... that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Let's hope people really do take note, and police really do come down hard on selfish people who ignore the instructions.

Death is coming to people we love. 'Policing by consent' sounds nice, and we hope for consent, but without definite enforcement, and systems to make that possible (like how do you tell if a person has good reason to travel, or can people just do what they like) then it's all a bit loose, and where the spreading of the virus remains loose, the danger of very bad death rates remains real.

More precision, and more coercion needed.

One more thing: "get deliveries from supermarkets if you can" is all very well. Elderly people shouldn't be going out to food shops at all. Prioritise them for deliveries? Or surely the army have thousands of trucks and the manpower to escalate deliveries hugely, working with supermarkets and their supply chains. Many supermarkets at present have no available delivery slots for a month. And then after that, the new ones will get booked up, if a million or more households are trying to get deliveries.

I want to support the government because it's not an easy situation at all, but I do think things still need to be firmed up more.

 

[LCHappy]

I don't think Mike Ashley's grasps the seriousness of the request and the bad PR he will get from this. This isn't a wonga type situation where they have a bad reputation for charging a few quid more. He has to realise that anyone that loses a loved one due to this over the next few weeks is going to blame the like of him. It doesn't matter a jot whether or not it was caused by his outlets and factories, he and others like him are going to be blamed.

Mike Ashley is sat on a financial house of cards. The tide is going out and I think they are going to see his group has no swimming costume on

 

[LCHappy]

A German expert gives a different view. 2200 over 65's die in Germany every day, if 1% of them have Corona Virus then it is 22 people a day that died with it.

A decent watch for the opposing view. Hopefully people take on board opposing points of view too. He says Italy has higher levels of pollution, just like China and this would account for the deaths due to previously damaged lungs. I never had northern Italy down as having bad air though. Anyway, still worth a watch even if you still end up disagreeing with him.

I'm still sat on the fence and undecided but will 100% be complying with the lockdown

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[anthony]

A German expert gives a different view. 2200 over 65's die in Germany every day, if 1% of them have Corona Virus then it is 22 people a day that died with it.

A decent watch for the opposing view. Hopefully people take on board opposing points of view too. I'm still sat on the fence and undecided. He says Italy has higher levels of pollution, just like CHina and this would account for the deaths due to previously damaged lungs. I never had northern Italy down as having bad air though. Anyway, still worth a watch even if you still end up disagreeing with him.

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On a simple percentage basis, surely you should be measuring the numbers against the daily Covid-19 case rate, not the national daily death rate? In addition, you should plot this data in a Gaussian distribution to determine the SD, and therefore try to predict the direction this distribution is going in? One thing this is not, is a simple '22 people a day' determination, it will be nothing like that as time progresses.

It's the UK we need to keep focus on though, they have the 4th highest death rate as of yesterday:

23/03/'20
Country Cases Deaths %
Italy 63,927 6,077 9.51%
Iran 23,049 1,812 7.86%
Spain 35,136 2,311 6.58%
UK 6,650 335 5.04%
Netherlands 4,749 213 4.49%
France 19,856 860 4.33%
China 81,171 3,277 4.04%
Turkey 1,529 37 2.42%
Belgium 3,743 88 2.35%
Brazil 1,924 34 1.77%
Switzerland 8,795 120 1.36%
Sweden 2,046 27 1.32%
USA 43,734 553 1.26%
S. Korea 8,961 111 1.24%
Canada 2,091 24 1.15%
Portugal 2,060 23 1.12%
Austria 4,474 21 0.47%
Germany 29,056 123 0.42%
Norway 2,625 10 0.38%
Australia 1,887 7 0.37%

 

[LCHappy]

On a simple percentage basis, surely you should be measuring the numbers against the daily Covid-19 case rate, not the national daily death rate? In addition, you should plot this data in a Gaussian distribution to determine the SD, and therefore try to predict the direction this distribution is going in? One thing this is not is a simple '22 people a day' determination, it will be nothing like that as time progresses.

It is such a strange thing, for me the numbers are saying one thing but the pictures are saying another. I haven't personally switched sides of an argument so many times as I have done with this. The pictures of people lying along the floors of a hospital corridor, and being grateful for that space isn't made up. That hasn't happened before and there is no denying that.

 

[anthony]

It is such a strange thing, for me the numbers are saying one thing but the pictures are saying another. I haven't personally switched sides of an argument so many times as I have done with this. The pictures of people lying along the floors of a hospital corridor, and being grateful for that space isn't made up. That hasn't happened before and there is no denying that.

It does surprise me how the UK TV Press are not emphasizing the disparity between the German figures and the UK ones. Depending on what you read, some say they have a greater number of ventilators. In other reports, it's suggested that their demographic spread has a higher number of young people than other countries. Whatever the reason, one could be forgiven for thinking that our TV news outlets are doing a bit of their own 'self isolating', and that the British public are less aware of this disparity than they should be!

 

[ian]

So order them online, where stricter rules for the workforce are in place, not encouraging members of the public just to pop down to the shops. These sanctions are a good start, but not enough, building sites big and small can continue, imv, they are not essential services right now.

 

[keys]

I feel like he has some valid reason in regards to backing up his reasons.

His reason/ motivation is profit and publicity. Anyone who needs trainers for exercise will already have several pairs, others should shop online. Chances are, authorities and public opinion will educate him.

 

[PoshTiger]

On a simple percentage basis, surely you should be measuring the numbers against the daily Covid-19 case rate, not the national daily death rate? In addition, you should plot this data in a Gaussian distribution to determine the SD, and therefore try to predict the direction this distribution is going in? One thing this is not, is a simple '22 people a day' determination, it will be nothing like that as time progresses.

It's the UK we need to keep focus on though, they have the 4th highest death rate as of yesterday:

23/03/'20
Country Cases Deaths %
Italy 63,927 6,077 9.51%
Iran 23,049 1,812 7.86%
Spain 35,136 2,311 6.58%
UK 6,650 335 5.04%
Netherlands 4,749 213 4.49%
France 19,856 860 4.33%
China 81,171 3,277 4.04%
Turkey 1,529 37 2.42%
Belgium 3,743 88 2.35%
Brazil 1,924 34 1.77%
Switzerland 8,795 120 1.36%
Sweden 2,046 27 1.32%
USA 43,734 553 1.26%
S. Korea 8,961 111 1.24%
Canada 2,091 24 1.15%
Portugal 2,060 23 1.12%
Austria 4,474 21 0.47%
Germany 29,056 123 0.42%
Norway 2,625 10 0.38%
Australia 1,887 7 0.37%

We have a different testing strategy - we only test when people are very ill, other countries have undertaken lots more general testing so the death rate will be skewed for the UK.

 

[martin-s]

So order them online

It's not very clear if and how online retailers are affected by the lockdown is it. Why should Sports Direct online be allowed to stay open, with the staff, supply and delivery movements that requires?

 

[keys]

I have not seen any restrictions for online retailers. This allows most goods to still be available, with a much safer (social distance) means of delivery. It is far easier for an employer to manage SD protocols in a warehouse, than deal with customers in a shop.

 

[Siusaidh]

We have a different testing strategy - we only test when people are very ill, other countries have undertaken lots more general testing so the death rate will be skewed for the UK.

This is a very good point.

The deaths to numbers tested ratio is dependent on how many tests a country does (in the UK at present, far too few).

Say only 1 person had been tested. Then our death rate at present would be about 33000.0% and people could imply from the figure that people would die 330 times every time anyone caught the virus.

On the other hand, if we'd been amazing with testing and already tested a million people, then the figure would be 0.03% and some people might imply hardly anyone who catches it will die.

The tested/deaths ratio is spurious, because the testing figure is arbitrary.

The death numbers are fixed, the testing number is variable.