UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

[Toonz]

'hate crimes' is a very wide ranging term, open to a degree of interpretation.

The term may be wide-ranging but it is interpreted no differently this year than it was last year, so that's not relevant.

As for the point about timescales, are you saying the police chiefs have conspired to release a misleading statistic out of some conspiratorial desire to prove Brexiters wrong? (When Assistant Chief Constable Mark Hamilton comments that the "sharp rise" is unacceptable, is he in on it too?)

It is deplorable but you never know who's behind these things.

Forgive me but that also sounds conspiratorial. Are you insinuating that the spike is due not to bona fide racists, but to Remainers looking to discredit the Brexiters?

 

[Toonz]

I thought the amount of mental gymnastics to deny the obvious before the vote was staggering. I didn't expect it to continue so fervently after it!

Seems to be an awful lot of "deny deny deny" going on.

I will happily say that in some ways I feel more optimistic about Brexit at the moment than I did before the vote. I will acknowlewdge the things that turn out to be not so bad and join you in condemning some of the scaremongering from some of the Remain camp before the vote. But why can't you be as even-handed in the other direction? As bonusmedia said, some serious cognitive dissonance going on in this thread.

 

[BREWSTERS]

The term may be wide-ranging but it is interpreted no differently this year than it was last year, so that's not relevant.

As for the point about timescales, are you saying the police chiefs have conspired to release a misleading statistic out of some conspiratorial desire to prove Brexiters wrong? (When Assistant Chief Constable Mark Hamilton comments that the "sharp rise" is unacceptable, is he in on it too?)Forgive me but that also sounds conspiratorial. Are you insinuating that the spike is due not to bona fide racists, but to Remainers looking to discredit the Brexiters?

Are you sure the term is interpreted the same as last year? I doubt it....every year the terminology-goalposts are shifted to match targets.

As for 'would police lie'....hell yes! I have first hand experience of that - I can also add Hillsborough to the fact that they conspire to deceive on a national scale.

 

[Toonz]

Are you sure the term is interpreted the same as last year? I doubt it....every year the terminology-goalposts are shifted to match targets.

Where is your evidence that the terminology goalposts are changed every year?

As for 'would police lie'....hell yes!

I didn't ask 'would police lie'. I asked whether you believe they are lying in this case. Specifically, conspiring to release a misleading statistic out of a desire to prove Brexiters wrong.

 

[Edwin]

Consumer confidence experiences sharpest fall in 21 years...
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-consumer-confidence-slide-gfk-yougov-regions

The remainers may only have had 48% of the vote, but voter demographics suggest they have the overwhelming majority of disposable income. When they stop spending, it won't be pretty!

 

[Edwin]

The Brexit hangover has left UK startups drained — Are the brains next?
https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/09/t...left-uk-startups-drained-are-the-brains-next/

 

[Edwin]

High street retailer Lush is moving more of its production and staff outside the UK as a direct result of the vote
http://internal.uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0ZO29Y

 

[Edwin]

4 milion signature strong petition to get referendum result overturned is officially rejected by government
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215?reveal_response=yes

 

[Adam H]

4 milion signature strong petition to get referendum result overturned is officially rejected by government
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215?reveal_response=yes

4 million really wasn't a great turn out considering all the noise. Interesting seeing the petition signature map though :
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=uk

 

[websaway]

4 million really wasn't a great turn out considering all the noise. Interesting seeing the petition signature map though :
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=uk

It wouldn't have mattered if it had been 16 million.

 

[websaway]

High street retailer Lush is moving more of its production and staff outside the UK as a direct result of the vote
http://internal.uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0ZO29Y

Jones said no jobs in Britain would be under threat. But staff at the Poole plant - which has 1,400 workers of 38 nationalities - were being offered the chance to fill vacancies in the Duesseldorf factory.

 

[Adam H]

Britain sets nuclear vote as NATO underlines need for deterrent

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...e00&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

 

[Edwin]

This fantastic letter does a great job of distilling what a lot of remainers were/are feeling.

NOTE: It's a long read, so unless you're genuinely interested in trying to understand "the other viewpoint" don't bother clicking on the link...

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2...ter-a-plea-for-realism-tolerance-and-honesty/

 

[martin-s]

The thing is Edwin, the leavers amongst us would have felt similarly hard done by - and with a similar strength of feeling - if things had gone the other way.

I'm not sure if you genuinely don't accept that?

You speak about this whole topic in the entirely black/white way that you see it, taking down to leavers and expecting us to empathise. That leavers must be completely stupid to believe what they do.

But this isn't a black/white topic - there are 100 shades of grey. We're not stupid, we just have different values and priorities to yours.

 

[Edwin]

The thing is Edwin, the leavers amongst us would have felt similarly hard done by - and with a similar strength of feeling - if things had gone the other way.

I'm not sure if you genuinely don't accept that?

You speak about this whole topic in the entirely black/white way that you see it, taking down to leavers and expecting us to empathise. That leavers must be completely stupid to believe what they do.

But this isn't a black/white topic - there are 100 shades of grey. We're not stupid, we just have different values and priorities to yours.

In a nutshell, your response demonstrates the gulf between Leave and Remain.

The Remain camp isn't (just) feeling hard done by. We had and continue to have a massively overwhelming weight of expertise from just about every conceivable field that combines to confirm our view that Brexit will do much more harm than good. That's not the same as saying there's nothing positive to be found from leaving the EU, but simply that on balance there will be a vast amount more negatives than there will be positives.

I don't have to "believe" that. Facts continue to work in the absence of belief.

The facts are that the EU-affected markets are tanking, the pound has cratered (which will push inflation higher), pensions have been hit, annuitities are at an all-time low, grants and investments are being cancelled, jobs are being lost, firms are going bankrupt, EU staff are looking for other options, consumer sentiment plunged at a 21 year high pace, property starts are down, property funds are cancelling redemptions, etc. etc. Do your own Googling and you will be able to confirm every single point I just listed.

And all of that in just two weeks when (in theory) nothing has changed... What on earth willl the UK be like in a month, two months, six months - let alone the 2 years of turmoil and uncertainty that Article 50 will trigger?!

No wonder we're almost catatonic with despair! It's like half the country is aware of an impending disaster and the other half are skipping around happy but oblivious.

I will repeat the most important point for emphasis: facts are facts. They don't need "belief". Listen to the rhetoric coming from Leave right now today and it's pretty much still all "hope", "believe", etc. with nothing "real" whatsover to back up any of their statements.

 

[Edwin]

BTW, there are close parallels between the Brexit argument and the climate change argument.

Both have an overwhelming preponderance of expert opinion on one side of the argument, and those on the other side of both will vehemently overlook and deny any and all evidence, no matter how strong, that doesn't fit their "niche" view of the world.

Those on the other side of both arguments seize on every little scrap of data that "breaks" the overall consensus as somehow repudiating it (it doesn't!). For example, climate change deniers get worked up about a colder winter, a freak snowstorm, anything like that, to spin the narrative that global warming's not occurring. But global warming, like economic and societal collapse, is not a continuum. There will be peaks and troughs, but the underlying trend is undeniable.

The same for Brexit. It is possible (as some of the tabloids have been doing) to focus laser-like on very selective data points like the FTSE 100 being up since Brexit (ignoring WHY it's up, because most of the listed companies do more business overseas than they do in the UK and so their earnings will be artificially boosted by the weaker pound) or a handful of luxury brands seeing their sales to tourists spike, and spin that into a "where's the apocalypse we were promised?" narrative. Especially when combined with a wilful distortion of the Remain camp's warnings (Remain never stated everything everywhere would collapse immediately)

 

[Edwin]

There was a toxic line of reasoning used in a number of the debates and many of the interviews leading up to the referendum (most notably, but not exclusively, by Farage). A simple sentence, hiding a wealth of dangers:

"Let's agree to meet in the middle."

Variants of the above were deployed when some of the more fanciful Leave statements were completely debunked. Like the £350 million a week nonsense. "Ok, you say £150 million, we say £350 million, so let's meet in the middle and call it £250 million."

Facts don't work like that! You can't average out a truth and a lie and get a "better estimate". Yet this happened again and again.

"You say Turkey won't join the EU for decades and decades? We think it will join tomorrow. So let's meet in the middle and say it will be in the next 5-10 years."

"You say Brexit means doom and gloom and poverty and economic collapse. We think it means rainbows and unicorns. So let's meet in the middle and say it will be broadly neutral."

Grrrrr. It's such a deceitful mind-game that refuting it is like trying to wrestle a jelly! On the surface, it sounds so "fair" and "friendly", but nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[websaway]

In a nutshell, your response demonstrates the gulf between Leave and Remain.

The Remain camp isn't (just) feeling hard done by. We had and continue to have a massively overwhelming weight of expertise from just about every conceivable field that combines to confirm our view that Brexit will do much more harm than good. That's not the same as saying there's nothing positive to be found from leaving the EU, but simply that on balance there will be a vast amount more negatives than there will be positives.

I don't have to "believe" that. Facts continue to work in the absence of belief.

The facts are that the EU-affected markets are tanking, the pound has cratered (which will push inflation higher), pensions have been hit, annuitities are at an all-time low, grants and investments are being cancelled, jobs are being lost, firms are going bankrupt, EU staff are looking for other options, consumer sentiment plunged at a 21 year high pace, property starts are down, property funds are cancelling redemptions, etc. etc. Do your own Googling and you will be able to confirm every single point I just listed.

And all of that in just two weeks when (in theory) nothing has changed... What on earth willl the UK be like in a month, two months, six months - let alone the 2 years of turmoil and uncertainty that Article 50 will trigger?!

No wonder we're almost catatonic with despair! It's like half the country is aware of an impending disaster and the other half are skipping around happy but oblivious.

I will repeat the most important point for emphasis: facts are facts. They don't need "belief". Listen to the rhetoric coming from Leave right now today and it's pretty much still all "hope", "believe", etc. with nothing "real" whatsover to back up any of their statements.

I have tried to use the analogy of an abusive marriage to put the simple case for Brexit. In that analogy the abuseds partner will tell the abused, who wants out of the relationship, that they will not be able to survive the split, the children will suffer the families will be driven apart, the whole economic situation will be catastrophic.
In the analogy,the abuse in the marriage equals the loss of sovereignty and uncontrolled immigration that we were subject to in our relationship with the EU.
Furthermore don't forget that everything you are predicting is simply what all the experts said prior to the referendum, so short of WW3 everyone who held our independence dear is happy to bite the bullet.

 

[Edwin]

I have tried to use the analogy of an abusive marriage to put the simple case for Brexit. In that analogy the abuseds partner will tell the abused, who wants out of the relationship, that they will not be able to survive the split, the children will suffer the families will be driven apart, the whole economic situation will be catastrophic.
In the analogy,the abuse in the marriage equals the loss of sovereignty and uncontrolled immigration that we were subject to in our relationship with the EU.
Furthermore don't forget that everything you are predicting is simply what all the experts said prior to the referendum, so short of WW3 everyone who held our independence dear is happy to bite the bullet.

You're glossing over the fact that most things the Leave campaign promised voters coming into the referendum won't happen. Either because they were out and out lies, or because they made over-commitments (they promised stuff that would cost approximately 11x as much as any potential saving from leaving) or because the "reality" is different (like the "control of immigration" which is no longer equated to a "drop in immigration" and may well not happen at all because of the need to keep freedom of movement.

And you're also wrong in your statement about experts. Yes, what they predicted is coming true. But the Leave campaign talked themselves hoarse in their attempts to convince voters not to listen to, believe or trust the experts. And polling backs this up: most Leave voters trusted NO sources of expertise whatsoever.

So the fact that the experts is right is not a vindication of Leave's position, it's a vindication of Remain's!

 

[websaway]

.

This fantastic letter does a great job of distilling what a lot of remainers were/are feeling.

NOTE: It's a long read, so unless you're genuinely interested in trying to understand "the other viewpoint" don't bother clicking on the link...

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2...ter-a-plea-for-realism-tolerance-and-honesty/

It's not a fantastic letter, not to me anyway.
He didn't mention the affect that calling Leavers racists, a ploy that was seen at first to be enough to defeat the Brexit campaign, had on the Brexit voters. He conveniently overlooks that that attitude was very prevalent among the educated young.

The greatest mistake he is making is that he thinks people blame immigrants for the state of the divide between rich and poor areas. They don't, but they are afraid of what uncontrolled immigration is creating. I think he writes an awful lot to state what is now history and most of his fears are conjecture and others would not gain much sympathy from the Brexit voters.

I think the greatest insult that he and you contribute to the whole argument is that the less well off who voted out will only suffer more as a result of Brexit. A capitalist threat that I thought was a thing of the distant past. It's governments job to make sure they don't suffer most as a result of a democratic process, the burden will be shared.