My Euro Bets 2012

[Aiden Roberts]

Using the figures we have so far I am curious to know what the outcomes would have been had I used a different strategy? Not very scientific but using the odds from the next four games as an average I have worked backwards to see profit or loss on £1.00 bets both teams on the last 20 games; if that makes any sense


team/team x9 average odds 3-1 stake £40 returns £27 -£13
team/draw x3 average odds 16-1 stake £40 returns £48 +£8
draw/team x6 average odds 5-1 stake £40 returns £30 -£10
draw/draw x2 average odds 4-1 stake £40 returns £8 -£32

My head hurts doing this first thing on a Sunday morning. What we can see is that so far the best bet is preds team/draw.

 

[Pred]

tbh this can't be done scientifically. it's football
look at yesterdays group changes

I stopped doing bets couple days ago as everything changes again being last game, things can get turned around 180 degrees and teams that think they're safe on 4 points playing a 1 point team can go out and lose a game by small a margin as 1-0

changes again in next round where teams will try for win but err towards draw to be safe at any cost going into extra time

best to select no more than couple of bets per game imo and take on individual basis on who is playing

ANYTHING could happen today which is why I won't touch it
if I had one bet it would be denmark ht draw
may well not happen but don't right off danes, hard team to beat and have very good record against germans. in fact better record than germans and in recent euro competitions
on head to head form and beacuse danes need to win I would tip towards danes, saying draw as germans ALWAYS get too much good fortune

also after picking just one game
at this stage, are any key players suspended?
will germany field a speculative team, some who haven't played in tournament? any new fresh legs


also your gut says so much. your gut is all the considerations you have rounded up telling you. if you really feel something and the price is too big, go for it

 

[Edwin]

Yes, those numbers (albeit from a small sample) certainly suggest there's no simple formula that delivers a profit

I've always been curious about that sort of thing (without ever acting on it, mind you) e.g. if one was to bet automatically on every horse that had odds of 50-to-1 or better in every race in a year, would it be a win or a loss overall? I guess somewhere out there, there will be the databases that could be crunched to look for that sort of info-nugget.

 

[Pred]

It's the same as this game Edwin tbh
you need to spend years immersed in it and to have lost a certain amount learning the ropes
however betting is subject to so many things and not just knowing which teams are likely to cheat, whether be certain jockeys and yards who are known cheats, or whther a jockey has flown in for one particular race etc
could go on forever
I have twice seen a horserace where it was possible to back every horse and not lose. it was in a bookies both times and couple riders were nonrunners prices were too big overall so couldn't lose, this was before online betting and as ever you needed money in account in an instant to go big on all

truth is if you know your subject and are disciplined you can do very well
best thing ever is betfair, with the biggest prices and ability to lay bets and cover losses is amazing
also inrunning option, you need live feed and to know jockeys , colours of silks off by heart and how horses travel and you can do pretty well

punters biggest mistake (of which we are all guilty from time to time) is letting emotion get involved, backing national teams or club team etc
aqnd to jump on too many bets
true professional gamblers may only have 1 bet a day, if that

but they are also like city bankers. lots of insider info and 'tips' and cheating to be wary of

 

[Aiden Roberts]

It's the same as this game Edwin tbh
you need to spend years immersed in it and to have lost a certain amount learning the ropes
however betting is subject to so many things and not just knowing which teams are likely to cheat, whether be certain jockeys and yards who are known cheats, or whther a jockey has flown in for one particular race etc
could go on forever
I have twice seen a horserace where it was possible to back every horse and not lose. it was in a bookies both times and couple riders were nonrunners prices were too big overall so couldn't lose, this was before online betting and as ever you needed money in account in an instant to go big on all

truth is if you know your subject and are disciplined you can do very well
best thing ever is betfair, with the biggest prices and ability to lay bets and cover losses is amazing
also inrunning option, you need live feed and to know jockeys , colours of silks off by heart and how horses travel and you can do pretty well

punters biggest mistake (of which we are all guilty from time to time) is letting emotion get involved, backing national teams or club team etc
aqnd to jump on too many bets
true professional gamblers may only have 1 bet a day, if that

but they are also like city bankers. lots of insider info and 'tips' and cheating to be wary of

Great post.

 

[Systreg]

From the matches last night, I still have £24 from the Draw/Czech Republic result going on to the Germany/Germany and Draw/Portugal results tonight in doubles, and to add to that, I've just done the following 2 x £5 doubles:

Germany/Germany @ 5/4
Holland/Portugal @ 25/1

Germany/Germany @ 5/4
Portugal/Holland @ 25/1

 

[Aiden Roberts]

From the matches last night, I still have £24 from the Draw/Czech Republic result going on to the Germany/Germany and Draw/Portugal results tonight in doubles, and to add to that, I've just done the following 2 x £5 doubles:

Germany/Germany @ 5/4
Holland/Portugal @ 25/1

Germany/Germany @ 5/4
Portugal/Holland @ 25/1

Nice, hope they come in for you

 

[Systreg]

Well f Kinell, Germany crash and burn all my bets, they should have had that match killed in the first 11 minutes, just the Draw/Portugal left for a double now, which will give me £156 back, come onnnnn.

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Well f Kinell, Germany crash and burn all my bets, they should have had that match killed in the first 11 minutes.

It's been a funny old tournament and they bombed our chippy!

 

[Systreg]

and they bombed our chippy!

Haha

Just having a look back to see how much I've staked so far, as I don't keep a tally these days, and it's £140, a Portugal win will put me £16 up lol.

I keep telling myself to stop with the fun bets, but it's hard when the odds are so inviting for HT-FT where one team has to come from behind, as pointed out earlier, the bookies love those bets, nice when they come off, but not that often. Far better with draw/team or team/team and team/draw combinations at much lower odds, and those are what I did a lot of of over the years.

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Haha

Just having a look back to see how much I've staked so far, as I don't keep a tally these days, and it's £140, a Portugal win will put me £16 up lol.

I keep telling myself to stop with the fun bets, but it's hard when the odds are so inviting for HT-FT where one team has to come from behind, as pointed out earlier, the bookies love those bets, nice when they come off, but not that often. Far better with draw/team or team/team and team/draw combinations at much lower odds, and those are what I did a lot of of over the years.

I know it is far too easy to be drawn in by these big odds, it only takes a little bit of luck and you are quids in but the odds are always stacked against you. I keep the bets low and it just makes watching the games more interesting.

 

[Systreg]

About bleeding time, a winning bet :lol:

Nice set of 2-1's for you as well Aiden

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Well done Systreg.

 

[Aiden Roberts]

About bleeding time, a winning bet :lol:

Nice set of 2-1's for you as well Aiden

Two 2-1's like bleeding buses you wait for ages etc.....

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Running total leader board:

team/team x9
team/draw x3
draw/team x6
draw/draw x2

20 bets 15 losses -£17.00

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Using the figures we have so far I am curious to know what the outcomes would have been had I used a different strategy? Not very scientific but using the odds from the next four games as an average I have worked backwards to see profit or loss on £1.00 bets both teams on the last 20 games; if that makes any sense


team/team x9 average odds 3-1 stake £40 returns £27 -£13
team/draw x3 average odds 16-1 stake £40 returns £48 +£8
draw/team x6 average odds 5-1 stake £40 returns £30 -£10
draw/draw x2 average odds 4-1 stake £40 returns £8 -£32

My head hurts doing this first thing on a Sunday morning. What we can see is that so far the best bet is preds team/draw.

updated!

 

[Pred]

shock of tournament dutch failing to get a point!
some fantastic players but based on that manager and players if they had one ounce of decency should donate all their fees and wages to disabled kids team or hospital or something
not sure if the dutch have it in them but I think some rotten fruit and veg needs to be thrown on their return lol

ronaldos finally woken up, hmmm

while since I checked tables but if we come second and progress touch wood, I think we meet portugal? one of nemesis teams

 

[Aiden Roberts]

shock of tournament dutch failing to get a point!
some fantastic players but based on that manager and players if they had one ounce of decency should donate all their fees and wages to disabled kids team or hospital or something
not sure if the dutch have it in them but I think some rotten fruit and veg needs to be thrown on their return lol

ronaldos finally woken up, hmmm

while since I checked tables but if we come second and progress touch wood, I think we meet portugal? one of nemesis teams

Yeah big shock!

Rooney v Ronaldo, that'll be interesting there is only one way to find out Fighhhhht!

 

[Systreg]

while since I checked tables but if we come second and progress touch wood, I think we meet portugal? one of nemesis teams

England will avoid Portugal in the quarter finals, but possibly meet them in the semi final, here is the table:

If England are runner up in group D, they will face the winner of group C, which will probably be Spain, or, if they Win group D, they will play the runner up in group C, which will probably be Italy, or Croatia if they get a result against Spain, personally, I hope they come second in their group so they wouldn't have to play the germans until the final.

 

[Pred]

cheers dude
we can't get complacent though
I am confident we will beat ukraine, we need to go for the win imo

but if ukraine beat us they could go top if swedes held france