My Euro Bets 2012

[Pred]

well holland draw bet didnt come off
knew denmark would be no push over though, wasnt expecting win
that bet lost

also had 4 bets on germany game, all blown out water as all depended on germany winning first half
that was quite expensive

still up though
wasn't able to watch any of games today due to busy with kids

 

[Aiden Roberts]

I know these results are not what I expected, need a 2-1 to come in.

 

[Pred]

can't win them all
or predict them
It'swhy we love football

however I did know denamrk were a very good team and were a crazy 100-1 to win before tournament
I don't expect that for a second
however 2 weeks ago I had denmark to win group and holland second at about 60-1
betfair

3 quid on it

I knew would be surprises in group
It was speculative and still very unlikely to happen but like my big odds bets as when I bet more on favourites they get turned over lol

 

[Systreg]

20 minutes left, need 5 goals haha

[edit]

Make that 4, I wont hold me breath :lol:

 

[Pred]

not watching game live just text live updates
i was watching prices grow bigger and germany at 11/4 to win was so tempting but cant bet if not watching live
well germany just scored!
gomez

so predictable when germany
I actaully would like portugal to equalise now

 

[Systreg]

I actaully would like portugal to equalise now

Yeah, that would be the best result now, Denmark has thrown the group wide open with their win, and if this was a draw, change Germany could go out at the group stage, wishful thinking

 

[Pred]

from what ive read portugal have played best
10 mins to go, portugal tempting for draw at 7-1 as only needs 1 goal but with portugal chasing germany are counter attack specialists
germany always get luck so should leave alone?

or a ronaldo free kick late on?
im tempted :mrgreen:

 

[Pred]

£3 on the draw at 7-1 and cant even see game lol

 

[murph]

Portugal are having a good go... Just nothing looks like goal material!

 

[Pred]

that kills me

88 min: This should have been the equaliser. Nelson Oliveira heads down the inside-left channel after a long ball. He takes it down wonderfully well, then powers to the byline before pulling a superlative reverse ball between two defenders and straight through the six-yard area. The ball ends up at the feet of Varela, who attempts to dink a finish over Neuer, but finds his effort brilliantly smothered by the big keeper. That was world-class work from Nelson Oliveira.

 

[Pred]

and lol
90 min +4: Muller is replaced by Bender. Bruno Alves meets Portugal's left-wing corner with a thumping header, but his effort sails over the bar.

 

[retired_member33]

Gutted

This should have been the easy one...

Now let's hope that we beat Germany on Wednesday

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXmXpDfWUlM

 

[Aiden Roberts]

International footbal drives me mad so hard to predict.

4 games 4 losses £8 down only need one to come in and losses wiped; fingers crossed.

Bring on Spain and Italy.

 

[Pred]

what you got on today Aiden?

I'll print my bets after games, don't want to jinx myself

I don't care if I lose my Ireland bets as love Ireland (who doesn't) and Croatia are dicks, particularly the manager
but I think will be a topsy turvy game

 

[Aiden Roberts]

what you got on today Aiden?

I'll print my bets after games, don't want to jinx myself

I don't care if I lose my Ireland bets as love Ireland (who doesn't) and Croatia are dicks, particularly the manager
but I think will be a topsy turvy game

I am sticking with my plan to do the same in each match, I want to know will it work over the tournament, if it does I might try it out in the premiere league. The idea being that the money doesn't all hinge on one match rather it's the profit or loss at the end of the tournament.

HT/FT on each match both ways
2-1 win for each team

Losing so far but it's all in the name of research

 

[Pred]

one thing I will say
I have been doing these bets for years, over 10 years
it is actually very rare to get a one team ht and other team ft
statistically


for some reason it happens more in tournaments
I had £50 on czech rep to do it couple euros ago and one other bet
got 33-1

but it happens rarely
I used to bet a lot years ago, now just do a few quid here and there on sports events I enjoy, I also love horse racing, flat racing

what DOES happen much more is one team winning half time then the draw
and draw one team

for some reason the price for this is massive in this tournament
sometimes 20-1
whereas often less than half that in league games

which is strange as it's a very commoin result in games

the draw halftime another team to win is again very common but much lower odds

i actually predicted that for german game but got greedy and coinvinced myself germany would score first half, portugal would chase the goal and germany would counter
actually turned out a cagey weak game

you never know
but I will say if you only bet ht ft both ways on every game you will lose overall

you need to mix it up

just my twopence
they do come in but rare as once out of the group games, teams will hold onto draw in second half and play for extra time then pens

the last games of the groups will be worth a dabble as some teams HAVE to get a result against the other or both need a result

at end of day there are only 9 outcomes to any game whcih make it interesting when you're sure it won't be plain sailing for any one team

I expect some fireworks in the italy spain game tonight
stats would say a low scoring game and as a first game that is true too, especially as Italy are so hard to break down in tournaments

I just have this feeling balotelli is going to mix things up as he is so talented and unpredictable, I'm hoping for a topsy turvy game

although my head says a cagey 0-0 draw at half time and spain go onto show class and win
so draw- spain

although if italy go for it coiuld lead at half time and spain level things in second half for bigger price

I have Italy half time ,draw ft , 20-1
going with my gut, and have a tenner on that

(naturally have a couple of other smaller ones to lay that)

 

[Systreg]

Some more fun bets for me today, gone with 4 x £2.50 HT-FT doubles that pay nicely if any of them happen come off, unlikely but, it's a funny old game :lol::

Croatia/Republic of Ireland @ 40/1
Spain/Italy @ 45/1 = Estimated Return: £4715

Croatia/Republic of Ireland @ 40/1
Italy/Spain @ 28/1 = Estimated Return: £2972

Republic of Ireland/Croatia @ 28/1
Italy/Spain @ 28/1 = Estimated Return: £2102

Republic of Ireland/Croatia @ 28/1
Spain/Italy @ 45/1 = Estimated Return: £3335

 

[Aiden Roberts]

I agree that they are long shots but nice when they come in. I have been doing them for a few years and they are much more successful in "must win" games, in fact dare I say it Man U have earned me a few quid over the years as their games normally last 4 to 7 minutes longer than most games.

I figured that with the amount of games in such a short space of time I can use some sort of calculation to establish whether the betting strategy is worthwhile over the longer period. I have always used it for individual games and as you know liverpool/everton came in the other week but I am curious to know what the odds are over a longer period of time.

I am using relatively small bets to test the theory but I will say I like preds ideas which I am going to investigate.

Aiden

 

[Aiden Roberts]

what DOES happen much more is one team winning half time then the draw
and draw one team

Let me have a look at this bet, back in a minute.

 

[Aiden Roberts]

I have just done:

ireland/draw
croatia/draw

and

spain/draw
italy/draw

All at 16-1, not the best odds out there I am sure but worth considering as a strategy.

The draw/team odds are quite short so left them but may form part of a risk avoidance plan, will have to watch these outcomes.

Aiden