Is Bitcoin the Next Big Thing?

[websaway]

Correct about gold.

Incorrect about diamonds.

Diamonds are not a rare commodity, the supply is artificially restricted by a cartel and the perceived value inflated by clever marketing. Diamonds are simply not rare... there are already enough diamonds mined to meet consumer demand for the next thousand years.

High clarity Emeralds, Rubies and Sapphires are actually rarer than equal quality diamonds.

(Okay so you are 'technically' correct in the sense that everything is finite, but you catch my drift)

yes you make my point, they all have a rarity value . That seems to have been the intention of Bitcoin, there is only 20 million, even down to the mining of them.

That's interesting about the high income fund side of things.

However, if you're nearing retirement age then the value of your pension matters enormously because you no longer have years or decades to wait for the value of your own pension to rise again. Of course, if you can tough it out and not cash it in that's fine. But many people will simply not be able to wait, so any market correction that lasts more than a few weeks will start to really hurt.

Amazing how intelligent people are when they are lucky but how they become victims when the luck runs out.

 

[ausername]

I contribute monthly to both a S&S ISA and SIPP; this is the first month I debating whether I should wait and see what the market does. Everything is going down.

I'm just pretending that I don't have any pensions at the minute, feels like a better option than checking the values.

My Plan B if I've got no pension and the mortgage isn't paid off, by the time I start falling apart, is to attempt an audacious heist of some sort. I'd either come out of that with plenty of money to see out my days in Panama or free full board accommodation courtesy of her majesty.

 

[RobM]

I actually don't have a pension. Turns out that when I moved here in 95 they gave me a wrong NI number and they decided to wait until this year to tell me. All my NI for the past 23 years has apparently been going to a woman and to 'claim' it I have to recreate all the end of year forms for self employed for that period. So be thankful you at least live in a country not run and staffed by (corrupt) muppets

 

[Edwin]

I actually don't have a pension. Turns out that when I moved here in 95 they gave me a wrong NI number and they decided to wait until this year to tell me. All my NI for the past 23 years has apparently been going to a woman and to 'claim' it I have to recreate all the end of year forms for self employed for that period. So be thankful you at least live in a country not run and staffed by muppets

By the time I'm old enough to draw a state pension, I expect the system will be so broken that nobody gets a pension anyway*. Demographics will see to that, unfortunately. And yes, I am aware of the irony that I will be one more data point in that demographic transition.

(*not one worth anything)

 

[Edwin]

Amazing how intelligent people are when they are lucky but how they become victims when the luck runs out.

Absolutely. And here's the other side of that...
http://www.businessinsider.com/stoc...ons-for-mystery-volatility-trader-2018-2?IR=T

 

[ausername]

Edwin you could always sell your house at 65 and emigrate to somewhere cheap, e.g. Bulgaria or Cambodia.

(assuming you own).

Think a lot of people will end up doing that, if all of their wealth is in home equity.

People also do this now by selling a London home and moving to the North.... met an old bloke the other day who did just that.... sold a house for £800k, bought one for £100k.... draws down on the rest.

 

[websaway]

This would be a really sh*t time for us to have a financial crisis by the way, and it feels like we may be on the cusp of one with the market volatility + Carrilion + Capita + Brexit limbo.

It was bad enough that I graduated from a Real Estate related degree at the height of the last financial crisis.... would be just my luck to be taking a £170k mortgage on the eve of the next one.

That said.... I'd be happy never to move again and haven't enjoyed the experience of selling and buying a home at all.... so if a decade of negative equity is what it takes to persuade my wife of the same then I'll take that

In all but the last recession one was punished for having debt, high interest rates virtually wiped people and businesses out. In the last recession interest rates went to virtually zero and you were actually protected for holding debt and then of course rode the coaster up with the assets that went to all time highs. This time there will be little help available. The next recession will be nothing to do with leaving the EU we were in it during the last five and recessions are cyclical, one every decade or so and sometimes in between.

 

[RobM]

I just hope that the US and UK govt are not going to step in to help losing 'investors' as seems to be mooted.

 

[Admin]

Congress propose a do not harm approach, good news;

https://www.coindesk.com/cftc-to-take-do-no-harm-approach-on-crypto-regulation/

 

[ian]

Market has really bounced back (crypto that is). Might just be a bear trap of course.

 

[Edwin]

My Plan B if I've got no pension and the mortgage isn't paid off, by the time I start falling apart, is to attempt an audacious heist of some sort. I'd either come out of that with plenty of money to see out my days in Panama or free full board accommodation courtesy of her majesty.

I realise you're joking, but I've often thought that white collar crime is the only sort where the punishment doesn't really seem to fit the bill. For instance, you can scam millions off people, do a couple of years in jail, then walk out and be set for life since it is very, very rare that the state manages to recover more than a tiny part of the stolen assets.

 

[Edwin]

Edwin you could always sell your house at 65 and emigrate to somewhere cheap, e.g. Bulgaria or Cambodia.

(assuming you own).

Think a lot of people will end up doing that, if all of their wealth is in home equity.

People also do this now by selling a London home and moving to the North.... met an old bloke the other day who did just that.... sold a house for £800k, bought one for £100k.... draws down on the rest.

Good point. That's assuming something doesn't come along that affects home ownership. Unthinkable now, but who knows in 20 or 30 years as the books balance less and less. Eminent domain is the one domain-related thing I never want to experience!

 

[RobM]

Market has really bounced back (crypto that is). Might just be a bear trap of course.

Be wary of people waiting to sell at break-even. There is far less risk appetite in the lower regions.

 

[ausername]

I realise you're joking, but I've often thought that white collar crime is the only sort where the punishment doesn't really seem to fit the bill. For instance, you can scam millions off people, do a couple of years in jail, then walk out and be set for life since it is very, very rare that the state manages to recover more than a tiny part of the stolen assets.

That's true, but I was talking about a working class style heist... you know, like Hatton Garden or the Great Train Robbery... with a sawn off shotgun.

I probably should clarify that I'm joking though!

Selling up and moving to Vietnam if I can't retire at 65 would be my actual plan B.

 

[Edwin]

I just hope that the US and UK govt are not going to step in to help losing 'investors' as seems to be mooted.

If they do, the next crash will vapourise the financial system, because everybody will pile in like they're playing in a casino with other people's money.

 

[mat]

I contribute monthly to both a S&S ISA and SIPP; this is the first month I debating whether I should wait and see what the market does. Everything is going down.

I have a S&S ISA spread over many different funds and individual companies, there has been a bit of a drop but also the gains recently have been pretty insane. I had a Japanese fund which made loads last year, so all in all I can't complain at the moment and in the funds I am in certainly doesn't seem like much more of a drop than you usually experience.

 

[mat]

By the way, the fact that you have been contributing to them monthly as they have been going up in value, it might actually be a good thing to add to it while there is a bit of a drop in my opinion... That is one of the advantages to adding monthly, you can ride everything out.

 

[RobM]

My plan B has always been the same. If I'm not financially stable at retirement I'll just top myself. I doubt it will ever come to plan B though.

 

[ian]

Market has really bounced back (crypto that is). Might just be a bear trap of course.

By the way, the fact that you have been contributing to them monthly as they have been going up in value, it might actually be a good thing to add to it while there is a bit of a drop in my opinion... That is one of the advantages to adding monthly, you can ride everything out.

Monthly contributions just seemed most logical to retain cost average throughout. Naturally if I had put all in when I did, the increase would be more significant, but that's just the way it goes.

 

[Admin]

My plan B has always been the same. If I'm not financially stable at retirement I'll just top myself. I doubt it will ever come to plan B though.

How are you defining financially stable?