EU Referendum

[Toonz]

How can we trust The Prime minister. Two weeks ago in the London Mayor elections he accused Corbyn of putting up a terrorist sympathiser as his candidate. Yesterday he was sharing a platform with the very same person. Self interest to a sickening level.

I completely agree with you on that. He's not particularly credible in my eyes.

 

[websaway]

Well I already acknowledged in my post that I was being selective and was talking about how the two sides stacked up at a larger scale.

Re Blair and the Euro - he only wanted Britain to join if all the economic conditions were in place, as he repeatedly said at the time. And as you know, the conditions weren't in place. Clegg would be a better example than Blair if you want to go down that route.

That's not a defence that's just saying he was lucky. His intention was to have us in the Euro and he actually said to Paxman that we would be crazy not to join. The very same thing he is saying now about remaining.
Some, and I mean many, to overcome future criticism are saying we should stay in a reformed EU. A reformed EU is not on the ballot paper.

 

[websaway]

I think the remainers in the list of good the EU has done forgot to mention that the average UK house price is almost 10 times the average national salary. We are no longer a nation of shop keepers, we are a nation of Landlords. Domestic property owners, led by the very people who are advising us to remain. 34% of MP's own more than one domestic property. I wonder which side they are on. Baron Mandelson who twice had to resign , once for a dodgy mortgage and once for a dodgy passport application, now owns property in the region of £5,000,000 . The poor people of this country can say the only thing they really own is their freedom and the sovereignty for which their ancestors gave their lives to protect. Now these property owning oligarchs are selling our freedom, and the British people are the losers.

 

[Edwin]

How can we trust The Prime minister. Two weeks ago in the London Mayor elections he accused Corbyn of putting up a terrorist sympathiser as his candidate. Yesterday he was sharing a platform with the very same person. Self interest to a sickening level.

It takes 2 people to stand next to each other! The question should really be "do you trust the mayor?"

He's not a hostage, there's no gun to his head. He chose voluntarily to stand shoulder to shoulder with the PM when a lot of the Labour higher-ups have explicitly ruled out joint campaigning. In other words, there was zero obligation for him to do so.

 

[Toonz]

That's not a defence that's just saying he was lucky. His intention wes to have us in the Euro and he actually said to Paxman that we would be crazy not to join.

I've never been in favour of Britain joining the euro and nor am I particularly interested in defending Mr Blair. I am however interested in establishing facts. Here's a transcript of what Blair actually said in that interview:

People here expect me to stick up for British jobs, British investment and British industry. The basic... What's fascinating to me too is that, if you look round the world today, the whole of the rest of the world is moving closer together. Look at what is happening in America, north and south, where they're thinking of creating a huge free trade area. If you look out in Asia, where they're talking now about possibilities of single currencies and so on, if you look at the ten countries queuing up to get inside the European Union, the whole world is moving closer together. What should we do, as Britain, with all the strengths of our history? Should we stand apart from the alliance right on our doorstep as a country? It would be crazy to do that. So, whether we join the euro or not depends on the economics. You have to have that in the right place. It is an economic union. We shouldn't, for political reasons, stand aside. I don't believe that would be a fulfilment of our national interest. I believe it would be a betrayal of our national interest.​

To repeat, I wasn't defending Blair's enthusiasm for the euro, I was putting it in context.

You bring up Blair - I could easily counter it with Brown, who opposed joining the Euro on political grounds. My point though - and I thought I'd made this clear - was that when I look at the larger picture of who is supporting each side, I see far more credibility on the remain side than on the leave side.

The fact that both positions involve unknowns and risks doesn't mean that both sides are equally unknown and risky.

If you just focus on one man - Blair - then I could equally focus on one man - Donald Trump. But that wasn't what I was seeking to do.

 

[gimpydog]

How do we explain people voting against their own self interest?

As I remember it, it was aspirational voting. Thatcher knew that & developed policy accordingly (right-to-buy etc)

Aspiration is a powerful motivator. Blair knew that too & moved to the right.

If you are happy with the comfort the status quo brings, you will likely vote 'remain'. whereas the aspirational voters, who believe things can be better, will likely vote 'leave'.

 

[gimpydog]

Brexit a scary experiment? Of course it's bloody scary!

Out of interest, what do you think are the greatest risks of staying in?

 

[Edwin]

Sounds like pro-Brexiters ought to plan their campaign down their local Wetherspoons

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/31/wetherspoons-brexit-beer-mats-eu-referendum-imf

 

[websaway]

I've never been in favour of Britain joining the euro and nor am I particularly interested in defending Mr Blair. I am however interested in establishing facts. Here's a transcript of what Blair actually said in that interview:

People here expect me to stick up for British jobs, British investment and British industry. The basic... What's fascinating to me too is that, if you look round the world today, the whole of the rest of the world is moving closer together. Look at what is happening in America, north and south, where they're thinking of creating a huge free trade area. If you look out in Asia, where they're talking now about possibilities of single currencies and so on, if you look at the ten countries queuing up to get inside the European Union, the whole world is moving closer together. What should we do, as Britain, with all the strengths of our history? Should we stand apart from the alliance right on our doorstep as a country? It would be crazy to do that. So, whether we join the euro or not depends on the economics. You have to have that in the right place. It is an economic union. We shouldn't, for political reasons, stand aside. I don't believe that would be a fulfilment of our national interest. I believe it would be a betrayal of our national interest.​

To repeat, I wasn't defending Blair's enthusiasm for the euro, I was putting it in context.

You bring up Blair - I could easily counter it with Brown, who opposed joining the Euro on political grounds. My point though - and I thought I'd made this clear - was that when I look at the larger picture of who is supporting each side, I see far more credibility on the remain side than on the leave side.

The fact that both positions involve unknowns and risks doesn't mean that both sides are equally unknown and risky.

If you just focus on one man - Blair - then I could equally focus on one man - Donald Trump. But that wasn't what I was seeking to do.

 

[websaway]

What's Donald Trump got to do with it ?

 

[websaway]

Mr Paxman asked Mr Blair if he wanted to go down in history "as the man who surrendered the pound".

Mr Blair said he did not want that, but he did not object to history's recording him as the person who said to the British people: "It is in our interests for us to be a key and major player in Europe and here is something, a single currency, that is in our economic interests."

 

[martin-s]

Sounds like pro-Brexiters ought to plan their campaign down their local Wetherspoons

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/31/wetherspoons-brexit-beer-mats-eu-referendum-imf

Corruption in the EU? Who'd have thought?

 

[websaway]

on the upside john is a lucky man
He has a lovely wife
he has 3 lovely children
he has a beautiful big house
he has classic cars and a Bentley
he has a nice yacht in the harbour
he has a nice holiday home
he has a huge pension pot
he has enough money in the bank to last him a lifetime
all this has brought him wonderful extended family and friends.

Their is a downside but let's ignore it
OK if we must.
John is serving 50 years to life in a US penitentiary.

This reminds me of the remain argument.

 

[Toonz]

Out of interest, what do you think are the greatest risks of staying in?

At the start of the campaign, I would have said TTIP. That's because I fear the loss of sovereignty to big global corporations far more than I do the loss of sovereignty to the EU. The EU may have a democratic deficit but it's not completely devoid of democracy and national representation. However, I have since changed my mind about this as I believe the EU (based on history) will be doing a better job of protecting our rights than a British government would be doing. A post-Brexit UK government would be more likely to result in us signing up to a kind of TTIP-on-steroids. In fact that's quite likely, given that we're probably going to have a right wing British government carrying out the trade negotiations and as a country we'd be in a weaker bargaining position as a single country.

The risks of remaining now, I believe, are:

1) Getting dragged down into an EU-wide vortex of political and economic instability.
2) The EU becoming so powerful that more and more individual nations - including a possible future UK - are punished along the lines of Greece and Italy.
3) Insufficient controls on immigration combined with the refugee crisis fuelling a rise of extreme right governments across the continent.

 

[Toonz]

By the way, on the point about risks, I would emphasise that point Dawkins made about The Precautionary Principle. Given that EU membership represents the status quo, then in the absence of consensus, it is reasonable to assume that Brexit represents the greater risk.

Let me emphasise that this is NOT the same as saying that Brexit will result in the worst outcome. One is a statement about risk. The other is a statement about outcome. I need to make that clear.

It may be that remaining in the EU turns out to result in the worst outcome for Britain in the way I described above. Or maybe the worst consequences result from Brexit - there are plenty of scenarios we could imagine from the economic shockwaves collapsing the EU, both in Britain and across the continent. Either way, none of it makes the Precautionary Principle invalid because none of us can predict the future. It's just that one involves a greater risk than the other and therefore it is reasonable to find one more scary than the other.

PS. The Principle is based on an absence of consensus, so I feel that analogies with domestic abuse victims and prisoners of self-imposed exile do not really apply.

 

[Toonz]

What's Donald Trump got to do with it ?

Trump has endorsed Brexit. We were talking about people who endorse one side or the other. You pinpointed Blair and attempted to use his former enthusiasm for joining the Eurozone as a reason why we could not trust his judgment on the referendum. I countered with Trump because we can all point to judgment flaws in people who are endorsing one side or the other. (The fact that Trump cannot vote in the referendum is irrelevant to this particular point.)

EDIT: Actually looking back, I countered with Brown, who opposed joining the Euro and is now supporting Remain. Discounting Blair's remain position due to his past support of the Euro is a textbook example of being selective, given that Brown - who also supports remain - opposed joining the Euro. (At least I acknowledged my own selectivity before going on to make a broader point! )

 

[Toonz]

As I remember it, it was aspirational voting. Thatcher knew that & developed policy accordingly (right-to-buy etc)

Aspiration is a powerful motivator. Blair knew that too & moved to the right.

That's a good point.

 

[gimpydog]

The risks of remaining now, I believe, are:

1) Getting dragged down into an EU-wide vortex of political and economic instability.
2) The EU becoming so powerful that more and more individual nations - including a possible future UK - are punished along the lines of Greece and Italy.
3) Insufficient controls on immigration combined with the refugee crisis fuelling a rise of extreme right governments across the continent.

Thanks for such an honest reply.

I believe the EU (based on history) will be doing a better job of protecting our rights than a British government would be doing.

Let's hope so. Because, if we surrender sovereignty to the EU, we won't be able to change much!

 

[PoshTiger]

I'm currently thinking leave at the moment..

It's very easy to get carried away with Europeanism, that we all like going abroad and how nice it is be be inclusive and that it would be a backward step to remove ourselves.

The real world isn't like that - currently we have;

- The French striking on pretty much any issue that affects the working class
- Mass youth unemployment across most of Europe
- European states & business that are protectionist - meaning UK businesses have no realistic chance of winning any contracts
- A broken currency that doesn't work with powerhouses like Germany & broke countries like Greece sharing the same interest rates

I've not included anything immigration or borders as I don't think that's a deal breaker for me, just the fact that people in the UK fundamentally are not the same as most Europeans, we tend to play fair, follow the rules whereas they don't appear to when it's not in their interests.

Also - if people think Europe in 5 years time will be the same as it is now are crazy & I'd rather we be masters of our own domain (no pun intended). No-one knows what will happen in either case and staying in and being bound to countries and cultures we have little in common with is a big risk IMO.

All politicians are liars - they all have no idea what's going to happen in either case so trust your instincts.

 

[Toonz]

Sod it. I never liked the .eu domain anyway